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250,000 pilgrims in the year 2015

jirit

Veteran Member
Time of past OR future Camino
Camino Frances 2007,
Via Francigena Italy, 2008,
Jakobsweg Austria 2010,
Camino Frances 2011,
Le Puy to Lourdes 2012,
Via de la Plata 2013,
Future:
Ökumenischer (Via Regia), Germany,
Lycian Way, Turkey
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!

Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela. During the peak season from mid April through to mid October, more than 1,000 pilgrims daily (200,000 in total) will arrive in Santiago and stories of hours long line ups, pilgrims sleeping on the floor, bed bugs, will become common place, especially in the months of August, September and October.

While the Camino Frances will remain the most popular trail, other trails like the Norte, Portuguese and Via de la Plata will continue to grow in popularity.

There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain. It is very possible that the euro could reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year, if not sooner, motivating more Americans to come to the Spain to walk the camino.

Finally in 2015, there will be some international news event whereby a famous celebrity, politician, etc walks the camino. It is very possible that a film crew from China or South Korea, will come to Spain, to produce a Hollywood style movie on the camino.

However all this said, 2015 will be a watershed year, whereby from 2016 and for the rest of this decade, the annual numbers will never exceed those of 2015. From 2016 and beyond, the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago will fall, and never exceed those of 2015. It won't be until the next holy year in 2021 that the numbers will rise again, but these too won't exceed those of 2015.
 
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The last Holy Year topped 250,000 already:

La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2010
Durante el año 2010 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 272.412 peregrinos

The past is no guarantee of the future, but there has always been growth from one Holy Year to the next in the last twenty years.

However, it does look like next year will be the first non-Jubilee year to exceed a quarter of a million. Tent anyone?
 
€2,-/day will present your project to thousands of visitors each day. All interested in the Camino de Santiago.
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!

Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela. During the peak season from mid April through to mid October, more than 1,000 pilgrims daily (200,000 in total) will arrive in Santiago and stories of hours long line ups, pilgrims sleeping on the floor, bed bugs, will become common place, especially in the months of August, September and October.

While the Camino Frances will remain the most popular trail, other trails like the Norte, Portuguese and Via de la Plata will continue to grow in popularity.

There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain. It is very possible that the euro could reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year, if not sooner, motivating more Americans to come to the Spain to walk the camino.

Finally in 2015, there will be some international news event whereby a famous celebrity, politician, etc walks the camino. It is very possible that a film crew from China or South Korea, will come to Spain, to produce a Hollywood style movie on the camino.

However all this said, 2015 will be a watershed year, whereby from 2016 and for the rest of this decade, the annual numbers will never exceed those of 2015. From 2016 and beyond, the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago will fall, and never exceed those of 2015. It won't be until the next holy year in 2021 that the numbers will rise again, but these too won't exceed those of 2015.

Blimey,Iwas coming in September but you have made me think April/ May mightl be a better time! There again I will be on the Ingles trail so it should be a bit quieter,so I might stick to that plan as I am 70 now but still working 3 days a week and cannot really afford enough time to do the whole route. (maybe in 2017 when I'm gonna retire fully). After Sarria to Santiago last year as an introduction I fancy a slightly slower,quieter experience. By the way what was the total number of walkers in 2014?
 
The one from Galicia (the round) and the one from Castilla & Leon. Individually numbered and made by the same people that make the ones you see on your walk.
Jerit, I would like to propose a bet. I believe that the pilgrim numbers will increase, not decrease, after 2015. I believe in the goodness of human nature and the need to find a spiritual path. I believe increasing numbers of people all around the world will be called to the Camino.

So here's the bet. If the numbers increase after 2015 you finally have to change your profile picture on this Forum to something more recent (preferably the one of you standing on the rocks at Finesterre watching the sun set). If the numbers decrease, dinner, with a very good bottle of wine, is on me the next time we walk the Camino.
 
The focus is on reducing the risk of failure through being well prepared. 2nd ed.
By the way what was the total number of walkers in 2014?
La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2014
Durante el año 2014 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 237.886 peregrinos; el anterior Año Santo en 2010 fueron 272.412. De estos peregrinos, 109.386 (45,98%) son mujeres y 128.500 (54,02%) hombres. A pie han llegado 210.943 (88,67%), en bicicleta 25.325 (10,65%), a caballo 1.520 (0,64%) y 98 (0,04%) en silla de ruedas.
 
St James' Way - Self-guided 4-7 day Walking Packages, Reading to Southampton, 110 kms
:)
Jerit, I would like to propose a bet. I believe that the pilgrim numbers will increase, not decrease, after 2015. I believe in the goodness of human nature and the need to find a spiritual path. I believe increasing numbers of people all around the world will be called to the Camino.

So here's the bet. If the numbers increase after 2015 you finally have to change your profile picture on this Forum to something more recent (preferably the one of you standing on the rocks at Finesterre watching the sun set). If the numbers decrease, dinner, with a very good bottle of wine, is on me the next time we walk the Camino.

Good idea but this does not mean you won the bet. ;) And btw I thinking of what I would like for dinner and wine :)
 
I depart Oz on 31 Aug - and peddle out of Pamplona around 3 or 4th Sep - can you please reserve us a room at the inn in SDC - anytime after 24 Sep (yeah we are doing the tourist route).

But to be serious - I am not surprised at friend Jirit's "postulation". Five years on from the 2010 Holy Year, 3 years since "The Way" activated American pilgrims; the value of the Euro cf (compared to) the US$ - plus there has been a significant improvement in the US economy so many more will have the dollars to spend. One thing if friend J is close to correct the Spanish economy will love it. Buen Camino
 
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!

Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela. During the peak season from mid April through to mid October, more than 1,000 pilgrims daily (200,000 in total) will arrive in Santiago and stories of hours long line ups, pilgrims sleeping on the floor, bed bugs, will become common place, especially in the months of August, September and October.

While the Camino Frances will remain the most popular trail, other trails like the Norte, Portuguese and Via de la Plata will continue to grow in popularity.

There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain. It is very possible that the euro could reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year, if not sooner, motivating more Americans to come to the Spain to walk the camino.

Finally in 2015, there will be some international news event whereby a famous celebrity, politician, etc walks the camino. It is very possible that a film crew from China or South Korea, will come to Spain, to produce a Hollywood style movie on the camino.

However all this said, 2015 will be a watershed year, whereby from 2016 and for the rest of this decade, the annual numbers will never exceed those of 2015. From 2016 and beyond, the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago will fall, and never exceed those of 2015. It won't be until the next holy year in 2021 that the numbers will rise again, but these too won't exceed those of 2015.

you're probably right regarding numbers as 237.810 of us requested Compostelas last year (2014), we'll see about the USD vs euro. koreans will definitely be coming over after the surge and success of the Camino in that country. i like your prediction too about 2016 onwards... we'll see. my guess is well over 300.000 pilgrims for 2021 when i will avoid the Camino like the plague :)
 
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The English-speaking world does not drive the Camino. Only in the last two years has the USA even appeared in the top five countries, which are usually Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and France. Movies clearly have driven the participation of the USA, but the European participation has shown steady increases every year, too. The faddishness of a short attention span does not affect Europe to the extent that it does parts of the English-speaking world. Family homes in France and Spain can be older than the U.S. nation! Spanish pilgrims increased from 79,007 in 2009 to 188,089 in 2010, the Jubilee Year. Spaniards will not be giving up on the Camino anytime soon regardless of any current fad. Besides the walkers to Santiago in a Holy Year, millions more drive to the City. Pilgrims are just a small part of the adoration of the patron saint of Spain regardless of our enthusiasm (and myopia).:)
 
Ill me making my bit for the aussies in May. As for the euro going down, the aussie dollar has dropped to 62 from 68 in the last month against the euro. Glad I bought a fist full a month ago
 
The one from Galicia (the round) and the one from Castilla & Leon. Individually numbered and made by the same people that make the ones you see on your walk.
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!

Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela.

Was reading the Norte guide by Edition François Lepere last night (not recommended - no one should walk with their nose in a book to find out if they should veere 20 degrees or 21 degrees after the blue pebble at the bottom of the hill after the pink house with 3 windows on its West side). It said that in the 14th and 15th centuries, 200 000 pilgrims walked the route in both directions.

Mind you, after seeing the number of hospitals and "... Franca" towns on Camino, I wonder how many poor souls did not venture to head by home, but what do I know.

So just imagine, double the people we see these days, with little to no hygene, no antibiotics, no fancy shoes or anti-stink clothes. No wonder the numbers dropped to near 0, nil, zip, after that. According the same source, in 1982 only 120 credienciales were distributed, 100 000 for the 1993 Saint Year.
 
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The PCT (Pacific coast trail) elite are already digging in on that one. What are you gunna do? They will come if they know about it.
Clearly, what it ever it takes to redirect trafic there. What do you need me to do to get "walkers" there. Clearly not as effective as those who used to "promote" the Camimo as a tourist destination. I frankly don't ever want to walk there, but if it will move traffic there, I'm all for it.
 
The PCT (Pacific coast trail) elite are already digging in on that one.
I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. I think the wilderness walkers of the U.S. and the pilgrims of Santiago are very different groups. My outdoorsman brother was driven from the PCT by mosquitoes after two days. It has conditions quite different from the Camino. He was wearing a full insect net outfit, and was reduced to cooking inside his tent. I personally favor the menu del dia...
 
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La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2014
Durante el año 2014 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 237.886 peregrinos; el anterior Año Santo en 2010 fueron 272.412. De estos peregrinos, 109.386 (45,98%) son mujeres y 128.500 (54,02%) hombres. A pie han llegado 210.943 (88,67%), en bicicleta 25.325 (10,65%), a caballo 1.520 (0,64%) y 98 (0,04%) en silla de ruedas.

The final official total for 2014 is 237.812, so based on last year's percentage increase, reaching 250,000 for 2015, should be doable. And based on the 2014 statistics, the number of Spanish pilgrims as a percentage of the overall total continues to fall (less that 48%) while the number of non-European pilgrims as a percentage of the total, continues to increase (greater than 20%). This trend should continue through 2015 and beyond.
 
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The last Holy Year topped 250,000 already:

La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2010
Durante el año 2010 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 272.412 peregrinos

The past is no guarantee of the future, but there has always been growth from one Holy Year to the next in the last twenty years.

However, it does look like next year will be the first non-Jubilee year to exceed a quarter of a million. Tent anyone?

My prediction for 2021 is that the total for that year does not exceed 250,000.
 
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...Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela....There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain....
My crystal ball says that 2015 will see between 259'000 and 261'000 pilgrims arriving in SdC. In the past I have had to dump quite a few crystal balls which turned out to be pretty useless.:D
 
My crystal ball says that 2015 will see between 259'000 and 261'000 pilgrims arriving in SdC. In the past I have had to dump quite a few crystal balls which turned out to be pretty useless.:D
Hope you are right :mad:

Groeten uit het koude kikkerland
 
The number of Spanish pilgrims was up 7% in 2014, so they keep on coming!!
Did not we say that walking the camino and obtaining the Compostela is good for your CV on this forum in a thread ?
That can be the reason that the number of peregrinos Españoles is increasing.
To apply for jobs these days in Spain and elswhere you need the best cv possible ;)
 
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The 2024 Camino guides will be coming out little by little. Here is a collection of the ones that are out so far.
Hope you are right :mad:
Groeten uit het koude kikkerland
Time will tell. After Easter this year, by mid April, we'll look into our new Crystal ball and figure out the trend for this year.
Groetjes uit een warm, rustig plaatsje in deze anders gekke wereld.;)
 
Let's promote the movie "Wild" to Americans and Western Canadians and watch the numbers drop.
Wild isn't a camino..it's (??). I love Spain, France,Switzerland, Italy...It's about pilgrims with a common goal (SDC!).
we fall in love with the culture, the food, Awesome people, the history. .did I say the wonderful people? We fall in love with a pilgrimage that's over 1000 yrs old. It changes our lives and we keep going back.
 
I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. I think the wilderness walkers of the U.S. and the pilgrims of Santiago are very different groups. My outdoorsman brother was driven from the PCT by mosquitoes after two days. It has conditions quite different from the Camino. He was wearing a full insect net outfit, and was reduced to cooking inside his tent. I personally favor the menu del dia...
There are thru-hikers (not through-hikers) and then there are thru-hikers. I've done the AT and last May walked the Camino's French route from Leon to Santiago, with a side jaunt to Samos. Both are equally great treks. Not all of us are "very different." Have you done any hikes in the U.S.?
 
The 2024 Camino guides will be coming out little by little. Here is a collection of the ones that are out so far.
(not through-hikers)
Maybe. :)

"Through and thru are different spellings of the same word. Thru is the less preferred form, however, and it might be considered out of place outside the most informal contexts. If you’re writing for school or for a job application, for instance, through is definitely the safer choice.

"One exception: The shorter spelling is often used in drive-thru, where the term relates to getting fast food or banking without exiting one’s car. But though the shorter spelling has gained ground in this use, drive-through still prevails by a significant margin.

"In current news publications that make content available online, thru only appears a tiny fraction of the time. We find only a few scattered instances of its use, against tens of thousands of instances of through. Thru is certainly gaining ground in text-speak and social networking, and it may someday become the preferred spelling, but we’re not betting on it just yet."
 
Maybe. :)

"Through and thru"
As much as "nite", "lite" and the likes give me hives (don't get me started about y'alls) and to a lesser extent 'Z' being used instead of "S" and the U being chopped out when it shoud be "OU", and the RE being replaced by ER, in this case, considering who the ones traversing the Adirondacks and other US mountain chains, Thru may well be what it is. It fits them, if not proper spelling.
 
The one from Galicia (the round) and the one from Castilla & Leon. Individually numbered and made by the same people that make the ones you see on your walk.
Maybe. :)

"Through and thru are different spellings of the same word. Thru is the less preferred form, however, and it might be considered out of place outside the most informal contexts. If you’re writing for school or for a job application, for instance, through is definitely the safer choice.

"One exception: The shorter spelling is often used in drive-thru, where the term relates to getting fast food or banking without exiting one’s car. But though the shorter spelling has gained ground in this use, drive-through still prevails by a significant margin.

"In current news publications that make content available online, thru only appears a tiny fraction of the time. We find only a few scattered instances of its use, against tens of thousands of instances of through. Thru is certainly gaining ground in text-speak and social networking, and it may someday become the preferred spelling, but we’re not betting on it just yet."
I was not implying that thru is grammatically correct, merely that thru-hiker is the way that veteran Appalachian Trail hikers almost always refer to those who thru-hike (doing all 2175 miles in one continuous jaunt).
 
I have decided to modify my 2015 prediction based on the blow out numbers for March

295,000 arriving into Santiago for all the routes of which this includes nearly 200,000 for the Camino Frances route.

No April Fool joke too
 
295,000 arriving into Santiago for all the routes of which this includes nearly 200,000 for the Camino Frances route.
Too early yet for this prediction. April's figures, which include the Easter holiday pilgrims, might enlighten us on what we could expect for the rest of the year.:)
 
The one from Galicia (the round) and the one from Castilla & Leon. Individually numbered and made by the same people that make the ones you see on your walk.
It is never too early for WAG predictions - that is half the fun of making them
:)

But I have deep sixth sense that the numbers for 2015 will be shocking!
:)
 
But I have deep sixth sense that the numbers for 2015 will be shocking!:)
The first 4 months show a 14% increase compared to the same period last year. What shocks most at this early stage, is that the trails of the last 100 kms to Santiago are getting ever more pilgrims load. :rolleyes::oops:
 
What shocks most at this early stage, is that the trails of the last 100 kms to Santiago are getting ever more pilgrims load. :rolleyes::oops:

True, but we can't begrudge others wanting to find the same joy and satisfaction we received from the Camino. It is always 'sad' in a way when we see something so nice become congested. Great things become popular and popularity definitely comes with a price! Personally, I will suffer through the congestion (with the occasional grumble beneath my breath...) if it means more people get to experience the Camino. :)
 
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True, but we can't begrudge others wanting to find the same joy and satisfaction we received from the Camino. It is always 'sad' in a way when we see something so nice become congested. Great things become popular and popularity definitely comes with a price! Personally, I will suffer through the congestion (with the occasional grumble beneath my breath...) if it means more people get to experience the Camino. :)
First experience last year was Sarria-Santiago and did not know what to expect. Only had one week to spare.
This year have 9 or 10 days to spare and we we will do the Inglese . It's only the same length but we have 2 days at Ferrol,2days at O Meson Do Vento and 2 days at Santiago. We can take our time and look at the buttercups!
Joe
 
My wild guess is that in 2015 the 300,000 mark will be surpassed. SY
Might be so but at least one less because I won't go to the office to collect the Compostela ;)
 
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Oh my:rolleyes: you've really gone wild in guessing:eek:

Not really too wild, from last years 230,000+ to 300,000 isn't too high a jump if you count in all that mouth-to-mouth promo á la 'my friend has done it, it was really great, I think I will do it also'. SY
 
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I will stick to my prediction that the total number for 2015 will come in somewhere between 250,000 and 295,000 - probably closer to 275,000
 
I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. .

Sorry to hear that. I once met a group of cyclists with similar mind-set, unhappy because it wasn't Moab, Utah.

I can't imagine why anyone would make such a comparison. The AT is a long, muddy, insect infested route which is occasionally scenic, but mostly buried in the woods. You have to haul a real load and camp. There is little of cultural interest.

The Camino Frances is also a lousy walk, but it is not muddy all year, and is not buried in the trees. You do not need to camp. It is full of cultural and historical interest.

You have to be a little warped to enjoy either one but it takes a rather closed mind not to be able to see why many people enjoy both. As far as comparing them, well, I guess they both involve walking, which is about where the similarities end......

Back to the original post, backpacking boomed in the 1970's in the USA, then the numbers declined leaving just those warped aficionados on the trail.
 
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Let's check again said crystal ball in the night of 31.12.15 to 01.01.2016 ;-) Cava is on me ;-) SY
Ooooh! Sounds to me like we have a betting pool going on... On the incredibly unlikely event that everyone is breathlessly waiting for me to weigh in on this important topic with my own wear-a-blindfold-and-throw-a-dart prediction, I'm going with 267,319. I stake a claim to that prediction. Hands-off. You can't have it. No arguing. Pick your own number!

And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is -- whoever gets closest to the exact number wins a coffee from me, from a coffee shop here in sunny, wonderful Toronto, Canada (your flight in to pick it up is your own expense! LOL). And maybe Ivar will implement "Ivar's Nostrodamus Award for Predictive Excellence" to the winner. :)
 
I can't imagine why anyone would make such a comparison.
There are definitely a certain sub-set of people who always have to denigrate whatever thing they are doing (especially when others are particularly praising it). I suppose it makes them feel they are above it somehow. The Camino is its own trail with its own charms, its own community of walkers, and so on. What people want out of a trail depends on their personal preferences and interests.

I've walked and cycled a lot of trails around the world. If I'm in the mood for a rugged wilderness hike, the Camino probably isn't high on my list. If I'm interested in culture, socializing with fellow pilgrims, history, and a very low-hassle walk (given all the infrastructure along the Camino), then the Camino is where I'm going. It's silly to denigrate another trail just because it doesn't match one's own personal preferences.
 
At the halfway mark May 2015 is on track to have more Compostelas than in May 2010, a Holy year. The daily average has been 922, and it was 931 in 2010!
 
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At the halfway mark May 2015 is on track to have more Compostelas than in May 2010, a Holy year. The daily average has been 922, and it was 931 in 2010!
Wow! Good thing the next Holy year is still a while away - if we're breaking the 2010 numbers already, a Holy year now would probably crush the infrastructure...
 
At the halfway mark May 2015 is on track to have more Compostelas than in May 2010, a Holy year. The daily average has been 922, and it was 931 in 2010!
Compared to last year's average of 882/day, this represents a 4.5% increase. Less than what I guessed so far!:eek:
 
Compared to last year's average of 882/day, this represents a 4.5% increase. Less than what I guessed so far!:eek:
Yes, but we're comparing the current YTD daily average against last year's whole-year daily average. We aren't in peak season yet. If we extend the current trend but adjust for seasonality over the rest of the year it would appear last year's average will be significantly exceeded. [Edit: Ooops! Or have I mis-read the post about the May numbers... sorry!]

Of course, there is no way of knowing if this trend will, in fact, continue through the summer. Maybe the year so far is just a fluke and we'll have a normal summer... I don't think so, but it is certainly possible. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

My one fear is that as the Camino continues to grow in popularity it might lose some of its unique sense of 'community' and become just another tourist industry. In a perfect world, Spain would get all the benefits of significantly more people on the Camino but without the Camino taking on any of the 'hustle' and coldness often associated with overly popular things. I'm always promoting the Camino and encouraging people to walk it - I'm happy to share 'my' Camino with the world. But I still hope it doesn't lose its distinctive character.

The solution? Everyone in this forum must walk the Camino even more to ensure we keep the same spirit! Get to it, people! :)
 
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St James' Way - Self-guided 4-7 day Walking Packages, Reading to Southampton, 110 kms
The May 2015 vs May 2014 were approx 14% higher which is in line for the first four months of this year compared to 2014

So it looks like we are track to see a 14% increase in numbers for 2015.

This translates to approx 270,000 pilgrims for 2015, of which we should expect 185,000 on the camino Frances route.

I think the actual numbers will be 275,000 in total and 180,000 for the Frances route
 
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Is there a way to find out how many pilgrims have reached Santiago this year so far?
There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.
 
There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.

Some time ago somebody had provided estimates that for each person that received an Compostela there was another person either on the trail that stopped before Santiago ( somebody walking for a couple of weeks for example ) or others that simply did not want a Compostela.
 
Yeah. I recall meeting someone once in 2013 that was studying this. He was interviewing people on the Camino on the stretch between Sarria and Santiago, asking if they would be getting the compostela. He was doing it as part of a university paper he was writing. He was going to send me a copy of the research when it was done, but I never heard anything from him. I did an online search last year, hoping to stumble upon it, but have never found anything other than estimates.

Was an interesting guy -- I remember that he spoke something like 6 different languages, all fluently! Wish I had that ability. LOL
 
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There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.
Start a thread with poll and at least we would know the percentage among us.
Last year I didn't register (I tried actually but without receiving Compostela and was told that's impossible, hahaha) and agree that percentage would be interesting fact to know.
 
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St James' Way - Self-guided 4-7 day Walking Packages, Reading to Southampton, 110 kms
I will stick to my prediction that the total number for 2015 will come in somewhere between 250,000 and 295,000 - probably closer to 275,000

Based on June's number my prediction for 2015 is looking good
 
Assuming the maintained interest for whatever motivation in the Camino, then ultimately accommodation constrictions and bad word of mouth following on from that is likely to be the determining factor in peregrino, bikigrino and touregrino numbers.
Taking the 2014 compostela figure as 237,810 then assuming an annual 9% increase in numbers annually then the next Holy Year in 2021 would see 434,726 collecting compostelas, an annual 10% increase wouls see 463,424 collecting compostelas, an annual 11% increase would see 493,732 collecting compostelas and a 12% annual increase would see a mind blowing 525,722 compostelas being issued ( daily average of 1,440 so summer peak would see daily averages of 2,500+ daily for several weeks ).
As the annual increase over the past 6 years has averaged over 10% then I think when I retire in Summer 2020, an early Winter camino might prove far less demanding in many ways than waiting until Spring 2021.
The extra capacity for queues waiting to collect their compostelas when the pilgrim office relocates may prove to be under pressure a lot earlier than many anticipate.
For 2015, 9% increase would see 259,213 arrivals, 10% increase 261,591, 11% 263,969, 12% 266,347 and the current 14% increase if maintained would see 271,103.

We are not alone :eek:

Seamus
 
In 1986 (30 years ago) 2491 pilgrims received a Compostela. This has increased by over ten-fold.

The total number of pilgrims who have received a Compostela so far - January to November - is 260,396.

In December 2014 the number was 1870 so we can assume that at least that number will be reached by the end of the month. 262,266 for 2015.

With Pope Frances announcing an Extraordinary Roman Holy Year of Mercy in 2016 and appealing for cathedrals with Holy Doors to open them next year, I reckon that the numbers will go up exponentially. The Santiago Cathedral is opening their Holy Door on 16th December.

A previous pilgrim office Dean calculated that only 1 in 5 pilgrims walking the Camino routes during the year obtain a Compostela. Many Europeans walk a week at a time; some walk shorter routes that do not end in Santiago; others do not apply for the certificate. If that is still valid, there were over a million pilgrims walking the Camino routes this year and the numbers will rise in 2016.

The number of pilgrims walking to Rome is also expected to rise. There are now dozens of tour companies offering various distance walks on the Via Francigena and although we started booking accommodation for our groups a few months ago, many places are already full. The same can be expected on the Camino, especially the last 114km from Sarria.
 
St James' Way - Self-guided 4-7 day Walking Packages, Reading to Southampton, 110 kms
We're likely to end the year 2015 by seeing between 262'000 and 263'000 Compostelas issued in Santiago. The upcoming Extraordinary Roman Holy Year of Mercy (starting next week) will invite increased numbers to walk to Santiago. Most of them will be Spanish and overpower the various Caminos' last 100 kms during the months of April to October, with inevitable (holidays) peaks in July and August.:mad: At this time it's too early to make guesses for 2016, considering security threats in transit (feeder) cities with massive people movements.:eek: The various Caminos are probably safer to be enjoyed once one gets to the start.;)
 
We're likely to end the year 2015 by seeing between 262'000 and 263'000 Compostelas issued in Santiago. The upcoming Extraordinary Roman Holy Year of Mercy (starting next week) will invite increased numbers to walk to Santiago. Most of them will be Spanish and overpower the various Caminos' last 100 kms during the months of April to October, with inevitable (holidays) peaks in July and August.:mad: At this time it's too early to make guesses for 2016, considering security threats in transit (feeder) cities with massive people movements.:eek: The various Caminos are probably safer to be enjoyed once one gets to the start.;)
You are making a January & February Camino look really good. That or run for the Invierno! ... But please let u not mention it to anyone else ;)
 
[...] That or run for the Invierno! ... But please let u not mention it to anyone else ;)
Since the Camino de Invierno has now become "official" it will gain in popularity.:cool: Don't be afraid of overcrowding as yet: statistics of the Oficina de Peregrinos in Santiago reported a "peak" of 56 Compostelas issued during the month of August. And an average of 20 during the other months from May to October.:( That shouldn't scare anyone.:rolleyes:
 
Technical backpack for day trips with backpack cover and internal compartment for the hydration bladder. Ideal daypack for excursions where we need a medium capacity backpack. The back with Air Flow System creates large air channels that will keep our back as cool as possible.

€83,-

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