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2018 pilgrim numbers set to reach 300,000 this week

Bradypus

Antediluvian
Camino(s) past & future
Too many and too often!
#1
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#2
This past summer, while reviewing the numbers for the past several years and looking at the rate of increase, month-to-month as well as year-to-year, I came to the conclusion that the final 2018 total would likely be in the 350 - 360,000 range. This includes ONLY pilgrims who completed the 'appelido' form to receive a compostela, whether or not the compostela was awarded. It does NOT include folks who simply asked for a sello to indicate they made it to the end of the pilgrimage at Santiago, but did not seek a Compostela.

If you apply the same rate of growth to, say a final total of 350,000 for 2018, the total projection for 2019 would be 402,000. And for 2020, the number could reach 460,000. This is just a straight-line estimate of the past year's percentage rate of increase over the past year. In this case, I found it to be about 15 percent, 2018 over 2017.

For the last Holy Year, in 2010, the rate of increase from the previous year (2009) was 54 percent. Just sayin... Now, if you apply that rate of increase to the next Holy Year, 2021 over 2020, the result could be as high as 700,000 pilgrims.

I hope that fewer pilgrims than that actually show up. I shudder to think about accommodations, walking space, and the ability of the Pilgrim Office to even process that many pilgrims. Yikes!

Hope this helps the dialog.
 

Kiwi-family

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Past: (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016)
Future (God-willing): Madrid, Salvador, Primitivo (2018)
#3
Very interesting thanks you two (@Bradypus and @t2andreo)
Is there somewhere I can see the totals for the last twenty years or so?
 
Camino(s) past & future
Several alone and with children
#5
This past summer, while reviewing the numbers for the past several years and looking at the rate of increase, month-to-month as well as year-to-year, I came to the conclusion that the final 2018 total would likely be in the 350 - 360,000 range. This includes ONLY pilgrims who completed the 'appelido' form to receive a compostela, whether or not the compostela was awarded. It does NOT include folks who simply asked for a sello to indicate they made it to the end of the pilgrimage at Santiago, but did not seek a Compostela.

If you apply the same rate of growth to, say a final total of 350,000 for 2018, the total projection for 2019 would be 402,000. And for 2020, the number could reach 460,000. This is just a straight-line estimate of the past year's percentage rate of increase over the past year. In this case, I found it to be about 15 percent, 2018 over 2017.

For the last Holy Year, in 2010, the rate of increase from the previous year (2009) was 54 percent. Just sayin... Now, if you apply that rate of increase to the next Holy Year, 2021 over 2020, the result could be as high as 700,000 pilgrims.

I hope that fewer pilgrims than that actually show up. I shudder to think about accommodations, walking space, and the ability of the Pilgrim Office to even process that many pilgrims. Yikes!

Hope this helps the dialog.
Interesting, we three pilgrims did not seek a compostela. We had one from our previous hike. So I do wonder how many don’t get them....
 

KinkyOne

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
I'am not perfect, but I'm always myself!!!
#6
Interesting, we three pilgrims did not seek a compostela. We had one from our previous hike. So I do wonder how many don’t get them....
I would say 25% but it's just an estimation on my experience. Nothing really serious to count on!!!

That's for finishing in SdC but many more (especially Spaniards) are walking sections so the Camino is more busy than the PO in SdC numbers shows.
 

zrexer

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2014, 15,16 & 19 Camino Frances
2017 Camino Portuguese
2018 Camino Primitivo
#7
I never really understood about people lamenting how busy the Francis route is, especially from Sarria on in until my Primitivo a few weeks ago. We intersected the Frances at Melide on Sept. 22nd. After 10 peaceful days on the Primitivo, it was a shock to hit the 'pilgrim freeway.'
We had previously always walked in early April and had never found the last 100 kilometers all that busy, but wow this year the number of walkers/cyclists was just simply amazing. People with blue tooth speakers blasting out their music. I felt boxed in...maybe they need to introduce passing lanes?
Starting at 6:15 AM the last two mornings eliminating most of the crowds for a few hours. But yeah, I totally get why veteran walkers are not keen about the last 100 K now.
But we did meet a number of pretty cool people on our last couple of days, so it ultimately was totally fine, just a bit of an eye opener.
 
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Bradypus

Antediluvian
Camino(s) past & future
Too many and too often!
#8
But yeah, I totally get why veteran walkers are not keen about the last 100 K now.
In the year of my first Camino 4,918 Compostelas were issued by the Cathedral. This summer there were many days when just under 3,000 were handed out in a single day. On those days close to 2,000 of those will have been walking the last part of the CF. That sort of change takes a lot of getting used to.
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#9
Given the number of requests for "solo sello' when I am there volunteering during the summer peak months, I would say the volume is less than 5 percent overall (annually). However, this does not include those pilgrims who just accept as their final sello, one from their final lodging at Santiago, or another place that happens to have a rubber stamp.

In my experience, there are some folks who just avoid the pilgrim office at all costs, due to the crowds that sometimes form there. Of course, we have no way to count these people either. But the number is not insignificant.

For example, I have been at the Pilgrim House on Rua Nova when pilgrims come in seeking a final sello from there, instead of from the pilgrim office, to mark the end of their Camino. I know this, because I sometimes overhear the conversation. ...Different strokes for different folks.

I assess that all-in, the number of pilgrims who do not seek a compostela or a final Cathedral stamp is probably in the 10 percent range, expressed annually. This proportion could be expected to increase during the crowded summer months and trail off in the autumn and spring periods. The distribution curve likely follows the overall distribution curve for arrivals at the pilgrim office.

Hope this helps.
 

zrexer

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2014, 15,16 & 19 Camino Frances
2017 Camino Portuguese
2018 Camino Primitivo
#11
My wife and I lined up at 6:30 AM this year the day after our arrival at the pilgrim office and were in the first 10 so we got the lunch certificate for the restaurant at the Parador. The wait was fine as we just made a number of new friends while standing in line. FB_IMG_1539613071497.jpg FB_IMG_1539613089345.jpg FB_IMG_1539613121326.jpg FB_IMG_1539613105597.jpg
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Primitivo June 2013
SJPP - Logroño June 2014
Ingles July2016
#12
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#13
One notes that there are still some 10 weeks remaining in this calendar year... Even at a conservative 5,000 pilgrims per week on average, that means another 50,000 pilgrims in 2018.

True, the daily numbers WILL drop off after October. So, the overall total may be closer to 340,000.

We shall see... And AWAY we go... o_O
 

seashell

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
July 2016
#14
My wife and I walked the Primitivo in July and also joined the Frances at Melide. It was a real culture shock. The Primitivo was quite busy in July but even so we’d walk for hours without seeing another pilgrim. From Melide onwards, apart from very early in the morning and after 4:30 in the afternoon I guess between 50 and 100 pilgrims were always in view. Most were sporting small day sacks, many were clearly part of very large groups (20+) and the last two days to Santiago were somewhat chastening.

We’d finished the Frances at the end of April and saw nothing like these numbers. Clearly the time of year matters a great deal.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Norte and Frances Sept 6 - Oct 11, 2016
#15
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Francis 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018. Many more to come in my future God willing !
#16
These numbers are amazing. This last summer I was on the Norte and I had gone sometimes 2-3 days at a time seeing less than maybe 5 Pilgrims all day.
 

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