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Camino Frances: Background, statistics, and prognosis for the near future.

alexwalker

Forever Pilgrim
Time of past OR future Camino
2009-2022: CFx6, CP, VdlPx2, Mozarabe, more later.

I stumbled upon this today. If you don't read German, open the link in the Chrome browser, right-click on the text, and choose Translate.
 
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I walked the Camino Frances in July and August as circumstances allowed me enough time to start at St Jean and walk through to Santiago in one go, something I didn't expect to be able to do before retirement.

I stayed in a mixture of albergues although the municipal and Xunta ones were closed. I have stayed in these on other routes and on the last stretch into Santiago when i did the Primitivo.

I have had plenty of time to reflect on the experience and what the ongoing impact is likely to be. For what it's worth here are some of my thoughts.

Sadly many businesses on all Camino routes will not survive the effects of the pandemic, even if widespread vaccination allows some return to normality in time for the celebrations next year.

I think that the projected numbers for 2021 now look unrealistic even under the best case as all forms of travel will take time to recover. If there is another year like this one then the damage to the local economies is likely to become permanent.

I don't think anything I have written above is particularly original or controversial. Where I do think there will be more change is in the behaviours and attitudes of different pilgrim segments to the albergue experience. I think it can be summed up as "never glad confident morning again".

Older pilgrims with health concerns who are more risk averse are unlikely to relish the full dormitory experience in future, with the maximum number of bunk beds crammed into the available space. The municipals and Xunta albergues will become the preserve of younger pilgrims and older people of lesser means on a genuine Catholic pilgrimage. Public health concerns are likely to require some increase in the spaces between bunks in these.

At the same time I think this will drive an increase in the shift from the bunk to the "pod" in private albergues. Some of the best places I stayed in already had these, and it brilliantly combined the communal albergue experience with increased space and privacy. This will require investment and reduce the number of spaces in each albergue and I think will result in the price increase seen in 2020 becoming permanent at the very least.

In summary, the accommodation will be more segregated on grounds of age and income and the private options will be a bit less "albergueish" but hopefully not too much.

There will at some stage be a new normal but the Camino will, like everything else, not be quite the same as before.

On a lighter note I have been passing some of the time watching old camino videos on Youtube and I am frankly appalled at the lack of masks and attention to social distancing in the ones from 2019 and earlier.
 
@alexwalker
Thanks for linking to the article. 2021 is still an big unknown. It being a Holy Year will increase the numbers from a non holy year, but they will still be small by historical standards. I would also expect a higher percentage of Spaniards walking due the difficulties of international travel, especially in the first half of the year. I’m hoping that the numbers are high enough to allow alberques and cafes to survive. Extending the Holy Year into 2022 would definitely be beneficial to all of the businesses along the Caminos.

The wild card in all of this is the rate of vaccination, which is going to vary by country. I’m hoping to be vaccinated by late summer with a hopeful Frances beginning in late September/early October. If Spain is able to vaccinate a large majority of their citizens by that time it seems a reasonable plan. Of course risk tolerance varies among individuals and I can only speak for myself.

frm
 
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On a lighter note I have been passing some of the time watching old camino videos on Youtube and I am frankly appalled at the lack of masks and attention to social distancing in the ones from 2019 and earlier.
I don't understand this. Do you mean "in the ones from 2019 and later"? Or are you appalled that we didn't wear masks before Covid?
I think this was just a small bit of harmless sarcasm.
I agree @lt56ny. @gns could have used 😄
 
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I don't understand this. Do you mean "in the ones from 2019 and later"? Or are you appalled that we didn't wear masks before Covid?
Bad attempt at a joke I'm afraid. I am so conditioned now that when I see people not taking precautions it seems odd until I remember that these are pre- pandemic.
 
I am semi retired. We were supposed to begin our next Camino last October. Of course all flights were canceled from the U S. We are waiting for the next opening. Being I work part time in the medical field I have had my part A vaccination already and part B in 3 weeks. We also want to see our daughter and her family in Wales. My grandson kissed growing up fast.
 
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Bad attempt at a joke I'm afraid. I am so conditioned now that when I see people not taking precautions it seems odd until I remember that these are pre- pandemic.
and yet... I see so many clearly 'current' ads on TV, some of which are geared for tourism & travel (in various shape & forms)...and NOBODY in them is masked!
I wonder about that... surely the tourism industry (which admittedly got hit hard if not one of the hardest) should show a bit more... "responsibility" if you will?
 
Students of irony may have noticed that in the UK Governments current advertising campaign encouraging us all to prepare for the end of the Brexit transition period none of the participants are wearing masks and some are even running hospitality venues :confused:

Advertising campaigns are designed, filmed and booked into desirable TV transmission slots months, even a year or more, in advance. Airline & Ferry Company, even Eurostar adverts are in current transmission in the UK: holiday company adverts still run showing happy families having happy holidays in a wonderful array of exotic locations none of which appear to include ICU's or vaccination clinic queues.

As any Spaniard would advise es normal
 
I am very optimistic about 2021 for Camino's. I believe that governments will get there act together on distributing vaccines and all should be close to normal by Summer. I think Summer/Fall numbers, unless there is some regressive event, are going to be big.

In regards to accommodation, there are many entrepreneurs who have suffered during the current pandemic. Some will not recover, others will. If there is demand, I believe new owners will step in to fill the gap.

Looking forward to a 2021 Camino or maybe two ^^.

Ultreya,
Joe
 
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I agree with @jpflavin1. There will be pressure from the travel/Camino industry to open early. The only way the way things can begin to return to normal is with a return of tourists/pilgrims. Hopefully they won’t press to fully open until it is safe to do so.

frm
 
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Im no Camino expert, but the Camino has been around for over 1000 years. The Camino, like us, will survive. The Camino, like us will change. I pray, that sometime in the near future, we can put this all behind us and start fresh. Buen Camino!
 
A selection of Camino Jewellery
Do people receive a vaccination 'passport'?
I don't think any countries do, yet. Of course everybody is discussing the matter, and something will likely be implemented for many countries. At the moment, the vaccination is barely being rolled out, the pandemic is still raging, and travel is very limited, so there is no normal for what "people" do! :)
 
Transport luggage-passengers.
From airports to SJPP
Luggage from SJPP to Roncevalles
Do people receive a vaccination 'passport'?
As a child, as a military dependent, I had a voluminous "shot record" which my mother would tote along when we went to Sick Call because of illness or any other medical thing. The photo I have seen online of a "shot record" is like the smaller cards I used to get when my kids were small. You recorded the shots on them with the dates, so you could know when a re-up was due and so you could correctly fill out immunization history info on school applications, camp applications, etc. It's not a passport. Nonetheless, I intend that if I am able to take a trip I will carry my shot record for the information of curious customs officers. Might even enter on it the next renewal of tetanus vaccine, too.
 
I am conviced that in the new/near future, it will be neccessary to be able to distinguish those vaccined from those not. Hence, some form of documentation will be needed. As @Texas Walker said, this is normal in many countries.

As part of my preparations before a sailing circumnavigation 12 years ago, I had numerous vaccinations, all recorded on a vaccination card (needed for many countries in Asia/Africa, etc.) I am due bc of my age, to receive Covid vaccination within the next 3 months. You bet I will demand 1-2 entries for my Covid vaccination on my card... :cool: And then I can again sip a cold Estrella Galicia in front of the Burgos/Leon cathedrals (and most other places)... :cool:
 
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