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Climate seasonal outlook info source

Past OR future Camino
Camino Del Estrecho, Ruta Fray Leopoldo,
Vía Serrana, Camino Francés
The other day @Kathar1na posted some very useful information in another thread (see her post #4) about the meteoblue weather site. While spending some time last night happily exploring it, I stumbled upon a page that might interest others looking for information on seasonal forecasts. The forecasts are computed by NOAA and ECMWF, and the explanatory material on the page goes to great lengths to stress that the predictions change day-by-day and are not something that can be depended upon. In their words, "Climatological information allow little inference on the expected weather." But even though a pilgrim needs to be prepared for all kinds of weather on a day-to-day basis, I found it interesting to get a look at how the coming months might compare to historical averages. (And I'm hoping the good parts of the October and November trends come true for us this year! :) )

So, given the caveats above, here's what you can find on the Meteoblue Seasonal Outlook pages. There are two graphs showing the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for next six months for a given region compared to the historical averages for those months (ie, these are forecasted climate anomalies, not daily weather forecasts). They compute new forecasts every day and average them every ten days. The darkest lines are the most recent averages. This not only shows how rapidly the forecasts can change but also gives an idea of how great the contradictions in the forecasts are (or are not) from one 10-day period to the next. The link for the Seasonal Outlook page is near the bottom of the sidebar on the left on the meteoblue webpage. (I couldn't find it in the app, but maybe someone else will know if it's also possible to access it there.) Here are some photos from the page on the Col de Bentarte region between SJPP and Roncesvalles.
Screen Shot 2019-09-04 at 8.49.42 PM.png

These are followed by 6 maps of Western Europe showing temperature and precipitation predictions for the next 3 months.
Screen Shot 2019-09-04 at 8.51.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-09-04 at 8.52.09 PM.png

Below the maps, meteoblue gives a clear, non-technical explanation of the information presented including how it is derived and how to interpret the predictions.

For details of past seasons, historical comparison data is plentiful on Weatherspark . And there are plenty of other interesting pages to explore on meteoblue including a gorgeous wind map - so much more lively than the usual pokey arrows!
 
Last edited:
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lt56ny

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
2021
The other day @Kathar1na posted some very useful information in another thread (see her post #4) about the meteoblue weather site. While spending some time last night happily exploring it, I stumbled upon a page that might interest others looking for information on seasonal forecasts. The forecasts are computed by NOAA and ECMWF, and the explanatory material on the page goes to great lengths to stress that the predictions change day-by-day and are not something that can be depended upon. In their words, "Climatological information allow little inference on the expected weather." But even though a pilgrim needs to be prepared for all kinds of weather on a day-to-day basis, I found it interesting to get a look at how the coming months might compare to historical averages. (And I'm hoping the good parts of the October and November trends come true for us this year! :) )

So, given the caveats above, here's what you can find on the Meteoblue Seasonal Outlook pages. There are two graphs showing the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for next six months for a given region compared to the historical averages for those months (ie, these are forecasted climate anomalies, not daily weather forecasts). They compute new forecasts every day and average them every ten days. The darkest lines are the most recent averages. This not only shows how rapidly the forecasts can change but also gives an idea of how great the contradictions in the forecasts are (or are not) from one 10-day period to the next. The link for the Seasonal Outlook page is near the bottom of the sidebar on the left on the meteoblue webpage. (I couldn't find it in the app, but maybe someone else will know if it's also possible to access it there.) Here are some photos from the page on the Col de Bentarte region between SJPP and Roncesvalles.
View attachment 64414

These are followed by 6 maps of Western Europe showing temperature and precipitation predictions for the next 3 months.
View attachment 64415

View attachment 64416

Below the maps, meteoblue gives a clear, non-technical explanation of the information presented including how it is derived and how to interpret the predictions.

For details of past seasons, historical comparison data is plentiful on Weatherspark . And there are plenty of other interesting pages to explore on meteoblue including a gorgeous wind map - so much more lively than the usual pokey arrows!
Thanks for the information. But too complicated for my pee brain. I looked at the maps and it looks good for my walk in November. But who knows. I think it was the thread you spoke of but someone suggested downloading Eltiempo.es a weather app. I downloaded it. It works worldwide. Easy to use and good info fast. It is in English too.
 

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