OBSOLETE COVID THREAD COVID-19: Corona virus discussion (Round 4)

[Albertagirl]

In Canada a new brewery has moved to produce a disinfectant liquid, which apparently has the same percentage of alcohol (70%) as their previous product. And they will deliver it. This was a short news item on CBC, and I heard no information about what is being done with their previous product.

 

[CWBuff]

Maybe that’s the overall global leadership mission.

I thought that was already accomplished?

 

[CWBuff]

Surely beer is essential!

Must be it!
WAIT!!!.....
You're not Loocie... you're MOLLY!!!!!
Im soooooo confuuuuuuuused......

 

[CWBuff]

In Canada a new brewery has moved to produce a disinfectant liquid, which apparently has the same percentage of alcohol (70%) as their previous product. And they will deliver it. This was a short news item on CBC, and I heard no information about what is being done with their previous product.

OK...I do hope that it wont go the somewhat scary reminiscent times of the USSSR when people did drink eau-de-cologne and pretty much anything with alcohol in it (true, i am not kidding)

 

[NorthernLight]

The Bnonews site that has been tracking the spread has added three new columns: new cases, new deaths, and death rate. Global death rate so far (and yes, thousands of cases are not recorded as not all affected people are tested), is over 4%. (One can argue the same is true of the flu; not all cases are reported as we suffer quietly at home; so this rate is truly alarming.)

 

[Kathar1na]

When around 60% of a population have been infected and become immune, this is no longer possible.’ What is ‘no longer possible’?

It is no longer possible that every infected person infects 2-3 people on average because so many have become immune; a person who is infected just doesn't have much chance to meet a person who can still get infected. The spread of the virus slows down or stops altogether. The transmission chains stop on their own instead of getting longer and longer. This is a rough and simplified explanation. I just wanted to point out that this number - whether 56%, 60% or 70% - is nothing unusual or difficult to compute. It is the so-called "herd immunity". It usually plays a role in vaccination campaigns: you don't have to vaccinate everyone, just a high enough percentage and the exact threshold percentage depends on the transmission rate of the virus in question.

Many of the numbers that we see are not scary in themselves because the disease is mild in so many cases or you don't even notice that you caught the virus. What is scary is the fact, that, depending on where you live, there may not be enough hospital beds and not enough hospital staff for anyone with any severe sickness if this coronavirus spreads too quickly. This will not happen if people follow the instructions that everyone must know by now.

 

[Former member 38395]

It is no longer possible that every infected person infects 2-3 people on average because so many have become immune; a person who is infected just doesn't have much chance to meet a person who can still get infected. The spread of the virus slows down or stops altogether. The transmission chains stop on their own instead of getting longer and longer. This is a rough and simplified explanation. I just wanted to point out that this number - whether 56%, 60% or 70% - is nothing unusual or difficult to compute. It is the so-called "herd immunity". It usually plays a role in vaccination campaigns: you don't have to vaccinate everyone, just a high enough percentage and the exact threshold percentage depends on the transmission rate of the virus in question.

Many of the numbers that we see are not scary in themselves because the disease is mild in so many cases or you don't even notice that you caught the virus. What is scary is the fact, that, depending on where you live, there may not be enough hospital beds and not enough hospital staff for anyone with any severe sickness if this coronavirus spreads too quickly. This will not happen if people follow the instructions that everyone must know by now.

Thank you.

 

[Deleted member 67185]

The Bnonews site that has been tracking the spread has added three new columns: new cases, new deaths, and death rate. Global death rate so far (and yes, thousands of cases are not recorded as not all affected people are tested), is over 4%. (One can argue the same is true of the flu; not all cases are reported as we suffer quietly at home; so this rate is truly alarming.)

One of the things I look for is the break out of mortality data within at-risk populations. For example, with COVID-19, there is a wide disparity of affects based on age. If we were to look at the mortality rates a bit closer, it gives a bit more information:

• ages 10-19: 0.2%
• ages 20-29: 0.2%
• ages 30-39: 0.2%
• ages 40-49: 0.4%
• ages 50-59: 1.3%
• ages 60-69: 3.6%
• ages 70-79: 8%
• 80 and over: 14.8%

Italy, for instance, has a higher overall mortality rate with COVID-19 because its population has a higher percentage of those who are above 70 years of age than most other nations.

 

[mmmmartin]

@Kathar1na, I don’t understand what you mean - ‘When around 60% of a population have been infected and become immune, this is no longer possible.’ What is ‘no longer possible’? Thanks.

@Kathar1na will no doubt be among in a minute with a more authoritative answer but in the meantime:
When a population has sufficient number of its members with an immunity to a virus, that virus can't easily spread to non-immune people and tends to die out. Until that time, if individuals are separated by distance, the virus can't spread. Hence the aim to have population in lockdown, so they don't meet each other. The idea is that either a vaccine is developed (12 to 18 months) or the self-isolatong population catches the virus slowly enough for hospitals to cope.

 

[mmmmartin]

@Kathar1na will no doubt be among in a minute

In fact she was here ages before me!

 

[grayland]

This thread is very long and in many ways full of outdated news.

We are going to close this thread now and open a new ROUND 5.

Round five link: https://www.caminodesantiago.me/com...a-virus-discussion-round-5.67120/#post-838569