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COVID COVID-19: Corona virus discussion (ROUND 7)

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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Yes....and my point was really that I am only concerned with two categories made in my previous post. Those without the virus and those who, by their actions, don't, or couldn't, care less.
I am not interested in statistics.
As was stated in the briefing last night...there is only so much a government can do and that these are nearly exhausted. It is up to individual responsibility now.
I haven't found the message confusing. Stay distant from other people (a Minimum Of two metres) and, when in proximity to others wear a face covering or mask. You should only be in this situation if you need to be out. If not, stay at home.
Unless these basic messages are not spread (unlike the virus) this subject will be on this forum next year.
Too regularly I see examples of selfishness
Which are making the sacrifices I, and many others made (and continue to make) a wasted exercise.
 

Albertagirl

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2015); Aragones-Frances (2016); VdlP-Sanabres (2017); Madrid-Frances-Invierno (2019)Levante
Too regularly I see examples of selfishness
Which are making the sacrifices I, and many others made (and continue to make) a wasted exercise.
But then, if I survive to get a dose of a coming vaccine, which they may not do, I shall go on with my life at the cost of whatever sacrifices I had to make to do so. I consider that worth the effort.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
But then, if I survive to get a dose of a coming vaccine, which they may not do, I shall go on with my life at the cost of whatever sacrifices I had to make to do so. I consider that worth the effort.
I accept your point. Perhaps It has let my abject frustration get the better of me. You do make the point on a personal perspective though. I am making the point regarding others. That non compliance on the most basic advice on this issue will only make things worse.
I wake every day with this perspective. I have Covid. What do I do to minimise and protect others and what I do will stop this spreading. Everything I do comes from this standpoint.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I see there are 394 posts on this thread...no wonder I am confused! 😳
If it's any consolation, @Camino Chrissy, you are not alone. Not everything in this thread makes sense to me either. 🙃

I'm growing a little tired of speculation and wild prognosis. It was 36 ºC yesterday where I live which is unusually hot. Did the virus go away perhaps? Or is that not yet hot enough and dry enough. Roll on, climate change ... :oops::rolleyes:

PS: And on a more general note, I guess I don't have to explain to the regulars among you that not everything in my posts is addressed to the quote and to the poster of the quote. I tend to regard these threads as something where you can develop a thought and pick up input for this, and not a ping pong exchange between individual posters.
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I'm guessing you would like the European Camino to get back to normal or as normal as possible. I'm guessing you would like to protect the infrastructure and businesses that make the camino possible.
There are many who are concerned...and willing to discuss it.
If you are tired of it....look elsewhere.
The clue to the content is in the title.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
There is evidence of herd immunity here...just not enough.
There has been alarming footage recently of a pub garden of what can loosely be described as a party. About 50 people...not a sign of social distancing...not a sign of a mask. The result is 10 have been tested positive (10 out of about 50!!!!!).
This refers to my previous post...if the basics are ignored and not adhered to a second wave is inevitable.
This is merely an example...I am sure this goes on everywhere.
Hi BB
Maybe you meant to write 200 instead of 50
The pub in Staffordshire allowed 200 people into the garden packed in like sardines..
Then 10 from here rested positive for the virus
Then 1 from this gathering went on to have a party with 50 others
But what's in a number anyway
It was a stupid thing to let this gathering happen

And thankfully, the pub owners are being prosecuted now!!
Hopefully lesson learned ....then again, maybe not
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Hi BB
Maybe you meant to write 200 instead of 50
The pub in Staffordshire allowed 200 people into the garden packed in like sardines..
Then 10 from here rested positive for the virus
Then 1 from this gathering went on to have a party with 50 others
But what's in a number anyway
It was a stupid thing to let this gathering happen

And thankfully, the pub owners are being prosecuted now!!
Hopefully lesson learned ....then again, maybe not
I.probably did. I was making a rough estimation on the photograph. There was undoubtedly more inside and/or out of shot.
Whatever the number there was it still is a shocking outcome and a vivid indication of what happens if the new norms and advice are not followed.
On a separate note concerning the four backpackers tested positive in Spain..I read recently that tracers had traced 400 who had been in contact with them. Now, I'm guessing, that they will have to trace the contacts of those that prove positive.
It could all be avoided.
Stupid is as stupid does!
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
No confusion from me. There is a number of the population with herd immunity, a proportion with infection, a proportion without and a proportion who couldn't care less. The precise numbers will never be known as the situation is so fluid from day to day and relies on samples and extrapolation.
What is known is that it is still out there.
Tonight came an admission (at a televised briefing) that nearly every avenue had been exhausted....its up to you!
Hello again BB
Herd immunity...now that a a funny thing and whilst my knowledge of herd immunity is very limited, all I do know is that Sweden, from the beginning has followed this path of gaining herd immunity

Now their new cases are low as are their recent..and I repeat recent deaths are low
Their economy is good and indeed growing
So has this policy worked
I don't honestly know, it remains to be seen

Here in the UK the cases are growing but in my 2 local hospitals there have been no new Covid admissions for well over 6 weeks and the 6 people in ICU have been there since March

It just seems like common sense to me that if you lock up an entire community like Spain....and then let them loose again albeit even gradually then they will surely get the virus that has been circulating all the while because they will not have gained immunity ...and with large gatherings, it will return with a vengeance

Here, there have been so many marches, parties, illegal raves..all with young people that it would have been a miracle for the virus not to have spread ..

I will continue to watch the numbers affected in Sweden as their policy has interested me from the beginning ...but what do I know?

The virus has not returned in a spike
It just never left in the first place ...

The only country from what I've read that's fairly safe is NZ and they quarantine everyone for 14 days entering the country.
But it's a small country with a relatively small population
But surely this would not work for countries like those in the EU without completely damaging their economies worse than they already are

Will a vaccine be found? Who knows
It may have to be given every year like the flu vaccine and we will, I really think be living with this for a very long time
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Hello again BB
Herd immunity...now that a a funny thing and whilst my knowledge of herd immunity is very limited, all I do know is that Sweden, from the beginning has followed this path of gaining herd immunity

Now their new cases are low as are their recent..and I repeat recent deaths are low
Their economy is good and indeed growing
So has this policy worked
I don't honestly know, it remains to be seen

Here in the UK the cases are growing but in my 2 local hospitals there have been no new Covid admissions for well over 6 weeks and the 6 people in ICU have been there since March

It just seems like common sense to me that if you lock up an entire community like Spain....and then let them loose again albeit even gradually then they will surely get the virus that has been circulating all the while because they will not have gained immunity ...and with large gatherings, it will return with a vengeance

Here, there have been so many marches, parties, illegal raves..all with young people that it would have been a miracle for the virus not to have spread ..

I will continue to watch the numbers affected in Sweden as their policy has interested me from the beginning ...but what do I know?

The virus has not returned in a spike
It just never left in the first place ...

The only country from what I've read that's fairly safe is NZ and they quarantine everyone for 14 days entering the country.
But it's a small country with a relatively small population
But surely this would not work for countries like those in the EU without completely damaging their economies worse than they already are

Will a vaccine be found? Who knows
It may have to be given every year like the flu vaccine and we will, I really think be living with this for a very long time
We are living with all the viruses in existence...eradication is nearly impossible.
A previous poster gave the definition of herd immunity far better than I could. Herd immunity will only truly come with a vaccine.
Keep well and warm Annette.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
We are living with all the viruses in existence...eradication is nearly impossible.
A previous poster gave the definition of herd immunity far better than I could. Herd immunity will only truly come with a vaccine.
Keep well and warm Annette.
Hah
Did you say warm?
You mean roasting I think!!
But I'm not complaining about the heat or the sunshine
BTW....do keep an "eye" on Sweden
It will be interesting to see what happens there even without a vaccine
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Hah
Did you say warm?
You mean roasting I think!!
But I'm not complaining about the heat or the sunshine
BTW....do keep an "eye" on Sweden
It will be interesting to see what happens there even without a vaccine
Every country approaches the problem differently. It is a shame there hasn't been a global response in concert. There are too many factors involved for this to happen.
I meant warm in the nicest way.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
Every country approaches the problem differently. It is a shame there hasn't been a global response in concert. There are too many factors involved for this to happen.
I meant warm in the nicest way.
Of course I knew that BB
I was only joking
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
Herd immunity...now that a a funny thing and whilst my knowledge of herd immunity is very limited, all I do know is that Sweden, from the beginning has followed this path of gaining herd immunity

Now their new cases are low as are their recent..and I repeat recent deaths are low
Their economy is good and indeed growing
So has this policy worked
Sweden has not reached anything close to herd immunity, their death rate has been much higher than their neighbors, and their economy isn't much better.

 

Turga

Camino tortuga
Camino(s) past & future
CF (Aug/Sep 2017)
CF (Aug/Sep 2018)
Sweden has not reached anything close to herd immunity, their death rate has been much higher than their neighbors, and their economy isn't much better.

Exactly! Some time ago I heard an elderly Swedish lady in a TV interview saying: "I feel I am taking part in an experiment which I have not asked to participate in."
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
Sweden has not reached anything close to herd immunity, their death rate has been much higher than their neighbors, and their economy isn't much better.

I did say that I was not an expert..or even very knowledgeable about herd immunity but that it might be good to keep an eye on the future of Sweden re this approach
Who knows what the outcome will be if this ever ends!
After all how many places are doing very well in the present??
Some are
Most ..not so well

Re The economy of Sweden .it depends on what report one chooses to believe I guess, and of course their economy has suffered but not as bad as other countries

When I looked at the statistics..and again I will say that I am not a statistician and compare ..say Spain and Sweden ...
Sweden has had 87.8 deaths per million population
Spain 608 deaths per million

Total cases of the virus ..
Sweden 2,200 per million
Spain 7,100 per million

Yesterday Sweden had 90 new cases
Spain had 3,000 new cases
Deaths in both countries were 2 each

Now although Spain and Sweden are completely different in terms of population, age, density, and rural v urban, the difference in these numbers is notable

Right now...where would I want to be...Spain or Sweden.?..I'll give you one guess
Unfortunately we won't be visiting either place any time soon

However I won't comment on this subject any more as we all have our own thoughts and opinions and I would not wish to have the thread shut down
Best wishes
Annette
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Here's an article on the current situation in Spain :


Roughly, there is massively more testing, so more positives are being discovered -- but 60% of them are asymptomatic, only 10% have serious symptoms, and both deaths and hospitalisations are in free-fall.

Nearly a thousand were dying daily in the beginning of April ; now it's about 10 per week.

Hospitalisations have fallen from a total of about 30,000 at the height of it to ~2,000

The mortality rate in Spain is about 1%, so quite similar to that of the worst flu outbreaks of recent decades.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
A comprehensive and good article about the current situation in Spain, no doubt with some parallels to other places in Europe, thank you for posting it.

I had a look through it and maybe I overlooked it but does it actually say something about flu outbreaks at all or is that your interpretation ☺? I noted the comment about a potential difference between Madrid and Barcelona; that the main sources for current outbreaks are large family gatherings and nightlife i.e. partying inside and outside in too large numbers and in too small spaces and nightlife in bars.

And something that appears to get barely mentioned: yes, it seems that what so many are doing - wearing masks, increased sanitary measures both at the individual and community level, reducing contacts, reducing shopping time, reducing mobility, no fiestas and no festivals, and other preventive actions - do have a considerable beneficial effect. It's good to think of that from time to time instead of constantly staring at the newest alarming (or alarmist?) headlines and numbers and photos in the news.
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
There are so many messages that have come out during the pandemic...far too many to mention.
We live in a global world where things that happen on one side can have such a quick and devastating effect on another. The "butterfly effect" if you like. We make conscious decisions rightly or wrongly and we live with them.
I live in a beautiful part of the world of which I am thankful daily. I also have the ability, should I choose, to have breakfast at home and dinner in Malaga. Bacon to Burritos in less than three hours if you like.
I will recount two stories (of hundreds) of where I live. You may wonder where I am going with them but bear with me.
It is not unusual for me to encounter driving on tbe wrong side of the road. Once it nearly led to disaster but most of the time it is dealt with with an acceptance and a reminder to the driver of where they are.
The moral of this is, when you are abroad to be vigilant. Rules are there for a reason and for everyone to understand. To keep everyone safe. Not the perfect analogy in the current climate but close enough for me.
My second is this. I raised three children with four years between eldest and youngest.
Not every year but with regularity we encountered a virus which, to put it politely, caused vomiting amongst other things. It always used to strike late September/early October. Incubation was more a necessity than a choice and would last for a couple of days at worst. The connection could be made that it struck at the end of the holiday season. The moral, if there is one, is that these sort of viruses are not new. It usually struck the parents far harder than the children and was facilitated by global travel and social interaction. This is more analogous than moralistic.
I wish everyone well in whatever they choose...just be alert and safe.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
A comprehensive and good article about the current situation in Spain, no doubt with some parallels to other places in Europe, thank you for posting it.

I had a look through it and maybe I overlooked it but does it actually say something about flu outbreaks at all or is that your interpretation ☺? I noted the comment about a potential difference between Madrid and Barcelona; that the main sources for current outbreaks are large family gatherings and nightlife i.e. partying inside and outside in too large numbers and in too small spaces and nightlife in bars.

And something that appears to get barely mentioned: yes, it seems that what so many are doing - wearing masks, increased sanitary measures both at the individual and community level, reducing contacts, reducing shopping time, reducing mobility, no fiestas and no festivals, and other preventive actions - do have a considerable beneficial effect. It's good to think of that from time to time instead of constantly staring at the newest alarming (or alarmist?) headlines and numbers and photos in the news.
One thing that has concerned me is that the restrictions made by the government in Catalonia (restricted opening hours) has now been overturned by the judiciary. The decision concerning the closure of gyms etc. has likewise been overturned.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)

SabineP

Camino = Gratitude + Compassion.
Camino(s) past & future
some and then more. see my signature.

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Here it is in English: https://nltimes.nl/2020/08/02/video-face-mask-brawl-klm-flight-ibiza-two-arrests

To me, this is more about drunken idiots on holiday flights and the culture of drinking any time until you totally plastered and out of control than about facemasks as such.
Thanks...I couldnt see the original video but I got the gist. Alcohol and common sense or reasoning don't mix...This isnt an isolated video and, for some people, they dont need to be drunk to adopt s similar stance.

Edit: another reason I dont feel it is the right time to get on a flight anywhere.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
One thing that has concerned me is that the restrictions made by the government in Catalonia (restricted opening hours) has now been overturned by the judiciary.
I can't say that it worries me but then I barely know what the difference is between a ley and a decreto, what exactly the competencies of the Generalitat are or how competencies are distributed between State and Autonomous Regions and I only vaguely know that there is an estado de alarmo under constitutional Spanish law and then two other estados of emergency, namely de excepción and de sitio, and that fundamental freedoms of citizens can only be restricted in a certain way when the conditions of the Constitution and major laws are fulfilled ... so no, without knowing what exactly is going on there and without living there or having any close bonds, it doesn't worry me.

I am also used to having a modern written Constitution, which may help. ☺
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I can't say that it worries me but then I barely know what the difference is between a ley and a decreto, what exactly the competencies of the Generalitat are or how competencies are distributed between State and Autonomous Regions and vaguely know that there is an estado de alarmo and then two other estados of emergency, and that fundamental freedoms of citizens can only be restricted in a certain way when the conditions of the Constitution and major laws are fulfilled ... so no, without knowing what exactly is going on there and without living there or having any close bonds, it doesn't worry me. I am also used to having a modern written Constitution. ☺
It doesn't particularly worry me either. It just seems that in the current crisis that a conflict could arise on decisions regarding health that are then overturned by a legislature. But...hey ho...what do I know.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
It just seems that in the current crisis that a conflict could arise on decisions regarding health that are then overturned by a legislature.
You don't find it reassuring that the judicative has a say over legally unsound decisions taken by the executive?
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
You don't find it reassuring that the judicative has a say over legally unsound decisions taken by the executive?
Oh yes I accept that...of course I do. This has been enshrined in our democracy since the 13th Century. Nobody is above the law.
 
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Anamiri

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
2016, 2017, 2019 Camino Frances
Hello again BB
Herd immunity...now that a a funny thing and whilst my knowledge of herd immunity is very limited, all I do know is that Sweden, from the beginning has followed this path of gaining herd immunity

Now their new cases are low as are their recent..and I repeat recent deaths are low
Their economy is good and indeed growing
So has this policy worked
I don't honestly know, it remains to be seen

Here in the UK the cases are growing but in my 2 local hospitals there have been no new Covid admissions for well over 6 weeks and the 6 people in ICU have been there since March

It just seems like common sense to me that if you lock up an entire community like Spain....and then let them loose again albeit even gradually then they will surely get the virus that has been circulating all the while because they will not have gained immunity ...and with large gatherings, it will return with a vengeance

Here, there have been so many marches, parties, illegal raves..all with young people that it would have been a miracle for the virus not to have spread ..

I will continue to watch the numbers affected in Sweden as their policy has interested me from the beginning ...but what do I know?

The virus has not returned in a spike
It just never left in the first place ...

The only country from what I've read that's fairly safe is NZ and they quarantine everyone for 14 days entering the country.
But it's a small country with a relatively small population
But surely this would not work for countries like those in the EU without completely damaging their economies worse than they already are

Will a vaccine be found? Who knows
It may have to be given every year like the flu vaccine and we will, I really think be living with this for a very long time
We did lock up an entire community - but not as severely as Spain. And now we are clear of community transmission in NZ, and life is back to normal (sort of). But it is easier to police arriving travelers with our very big moat....
With the huge land mass that is the EU, I cant see how you can restrict movement indefinitely.
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
We did lock up an entire community - but not as severely as Spain. And now we are clear of community transmission in NZ, and life is back to normal (sort of). But it is easier to police arriving travelers with our very big moat....
With the huge land mass that is the EU, I cant see how you can restrict movement indefinitely.
A very valid post and points made.
Every country/continent has different issues that effect how effectively they deal with the problem. The date at which movement should have been restricted should have been when a vaccination was developed.
Our homes have become the isolation units of years ago in combatting TB. Years ago certain viruses and diseases were "notifiable". Not in this case as the system couldn't cope.
Spain has all the factors that facilitate this virus in the form of freedom of movement (the european holiday season, it's own holiday season, the fruit picking season and a balance of economy over health) It isn't their fault. It will be imported as well as exported.
We can do nothing to cure the problem but we can do lots to limit it to a managable level. That takes change and personal responsibility.
 
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MichaelC

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Aug 2017: Le Puy to Santiago
Nov 2018: Kumano Kodo (part)
2021 (?): Via Francigena, Aosta to Rome
An article appeared today in Spanish news media about one of the first pilgrims to walk the Camino again. No doubt numerous "first pilgrims walking again" articles will follow. Some of you may know the pilgrim, his name is Oliver Kloidt; he has a long and extensive Camino history it seems. He is currently walking in Castilla y Leon.

Any word on how this guy has been faring? I actually met him in Moissac; I had no idea he was so well known.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Any word on how this guy has been faring?
I personally didn't notice any other news about him but I followed another guy on Facebook for a while who will be known to many of us: David Vidal Figuls from the Casa de los Dioses just before Astorga.

At the beginning of June, I think, he started walking the Camino Frances from his Casa de los Dioses to Santiago and Finisterre and posted daily video clips on his FB page and I see that he now also has a YouTube channel. He was also on local TV in Castilla y Leon. Fantastistic weather, and next to nobody else on the path. In one clip I noticed that someone had put up their tent right next to the Cruz de Ferro ... I am too lazy to look it up but there is a guy with a permanent food stand in a kind of camper van on the left side of the road in a small wood at the bottom of a hill, and several pilgrim walkers spent the night there. And of course in the empty albergues ... with so few people walking right now you can easily do all this and it must be fantastic to walk the CF at the moment ... unless the "global-social" aspect of the CF is your thing and a not to be missed asset, of course ... 😊.
 

MichaelC

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Aug 2017: Le Puy to Santiago
Nov 2018: Kumano Kodo (part)
2021 (?): Via Francigena, Aosta to Rome
I personally didn't notice any other news about him but I followed another guy on Facebook for a while who will be known to many of us: David Vidal Figuls from the Casa de los Dioses just before Astorga.

At the beginning of June, I think, he started walking the Camino Frances from his Casa de los Dioses to Santiago and Finisterre and posted daily video clips on his FB page and I see that he now also has a YouTube channel. ... And of course in the empty albergues ... with so few people walking right now you can easily do all this and it must be fantastic to walk the CF at the moment ... unless the "global-social" aspect of the CF is your thing and a not to be missed asset, of course ... 😊.

Right, I thought ... I doubt I know this David guy ... but I'll just look at his page and OH HIM! Yeah, I remember having a really nice talk with him one afternoon.

I've been following a handful of FB groups for the Via Francigena and the Cammino di San Francesco. There seem to be a number of people walking, but all Italian so far. I don't know the Italian routes first hand, so it's hard to say if they've returned to normal levels. One guy was having trouble finding lodging last night, so there's that.

I like the community aspect of the camino, but not necessarily the carnival aspect. Even so, I'm not sure if I personally would be comfortable walking right now.
 
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nycwalking

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Ourense to Santiago (2019), CF: (2014, 2004, 2002, 2001). On to Fisterra, (2002, 4, 14).
A very valid post and points made.
Every country/continent has different issues that effect how effectively they deal with the problem. The date at which movement should have been restricted should have been when a vaccination was developed.
Our homes have become the isolation units of years ago in combatting TB. Years ago certain viruses and diseases were "notifiable". Not in this case as the system couldn't cope.
Spain has all the factors that facilitate this virus in the form of freedom of movement (the european holiday season, it's own holiday season, the fruit picking season and a balance of economy over health) It isn't their fault. It will be imported as well as exported.
We can do nothing to cure the problem but we can do lots to limit it to a managable level. That takes change and personal responsibility.

Personal responsibility.

Those two words have sparked protests, marches, one-on-one fights in stores, and more, regarding the wearing of masks.

And in the midst of the madness people are dying and/or contracting the virus left, right, and center.

How in the world do you enforce personal responsibility?
 

Marbe2

Active member
Camino(s) past & future
2015-2019 walked all or more than half of CF 7 times... CP recently cancelled by Covid 19!
[

Those two words have sparked protests, marches, one-on-one fights in stores, and more, regarding the wearing of masks.

And in the midst of the madness people are dying and/or contracting the virus left, right, and center.

How in the world do you enforce personal responsibility?
[/QUOTE]
You can’t!

That is why there are to laws, laws regarding seat belts, driving while intoxicated, etc. And therefore, there must be consequences for those who endanger others.
 

nycwalking

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Ourense to Santiago (2019), CF: (2014, 2004, 2002, 2001). On to Fisterra, (2002, 4, 14).
[

Those two words have sparked protests, marches, one-on-one fights in stores, and more, regarding the wearing of masks.

And in the midst of the madness people are dying and/or contracting the virus left, right, and center.

How in the world do you enforce personal responsibility?
You can’t!

That is why there are to laws, laws regarding seat belts, driving while intoxicated, etc. And therefore, there must be consequences for those who endanger others.
[/QUOTE]

True!

But, when the Law Enforcer assures the populace the law won’t be enforced by them.

Now.

What?
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Personal responsibility.

Those two words have sparked protests, marches, one-on-one fights in stores, and more, regarding the wearing of masks.

And in the midst of the madness people are dying and/or contracting the virus left, right, and center.

How in the world do you enforce personal responsibility?
You don't enforce personal responsibility that's something that comes from within.
That is something that is taught. It is a moral imperative.
 

Nick B

Member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances - May/June 2018
Portugese - (2019)
Norte - (2020)
I find if I don't watch TV or read fearmongering news articles the Covid 19 virus disappears, for me at least.

If a vaccine is generated and due to the profit associated with it's implementation I'm sure it will pop up sometime in the future then as with the flu shot it will not be 100% effective. Anyone believing they're suddenly protected from Covid 19 once they get the vaccine needs to do a little more research and less listening to politicians or the talking heads on TV.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I find if I don't watch TV or read fearmongering news articles the Covid 19 virus disappears, for me at least.

If a vaccine is generated and due to the profit associated with it's implementation I'm sure it will pop up sometime in the future then as with the flu shot it will not be 100% effective. Anyone believing they're suddenly protected from Covid 19 once they get the vaccine needs to do a little more research and less listening to politicians or the talking heads on TV.
Reminds me of a phrase my father used to say...."Ignorance is bliss".
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
Reminds me of a phrase my father used to say...."Ignorance is bliss".
Ignorance can be bliss... sometimes, but we know it's best to be as well informed as possible regarding this particular virus.
I sometimes keep "my head in the sand", but this virus forces me to look around.
 

Marbe2

Active member
Camino(s) past & future
2015-2019 walked all or more than half of CF 7 times... CP recently cancelled by Covid 19!
You can’t!

That is why there are to laws, laws regarding seat belts, driving while intoxicated, etc. And therefore, there must be consequences for those who endanger others.

True!

But, when the Law Enforcer assures the populace the law won’t be enforced by them.

Now.

It will take time...but police will have to enforce it eventually. It took a while to enforce seat belt laws too! From what I have read this virus will be around for years...hopefully much more manageable. If people will not wear masks and distance, according to Fauchi, the virus will smolder. Therefore laws will have to be enforced.
 

Jeff Crawley

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Currently on a "Virtual" Camino and striding out across Castile y Leon!
From the Guardian UK website:

The government of the northern Spanish region of Castilla y León has ordered the town of Aranda de Duero and its 32,000 residents back into confinement for a fortnight after 230 cases of coronavirus were detected in the area, writes Sam Jones, the Guardian’s Madrid correspondent.

From Friday, people will only be allowed in and out of the town for medical appointments, for work reasons, or to look after those in need of care.

The order comes less than a week after two small towns in the same region, Íscar and Pedrajas de San Esteban, were also returned to confinement following Covid outbreaks.

Spain had recorded 33,965 new cases of the virus in the past two weeks, 1,772 of them between Tuesday and Wednesday. To date, the country has logged 305,767 cases and 28,499 deaths.


Avanda de Duero is 46 miles south of Burgos

Same source:

The regional government of the Basque country has said there is no longer any doubt that it is “facing a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic”, writes Sam Jones, the Guardian’s Madrid correspondent.

Speaking on Thursday after 338 new cases were diagnosed in the region, the health minister, Nekane Murga, called for people to remain vigilant and warned them not to underestimate the virus.

“There’s no reason to think the virus is now weaker or less deadly,” she said. “It has the same capacity to spread and infect people as it did in March. It’s infecting more people on a daily basis and it can kill.”


Still want to walk the Camino this year?
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Sweden has had 87.8 deaths per million population
Spain 608 deaths per million

Total cases of the virus ..
Sweden 2,200 per million
Spain 7,100 per million

I am not sure of the source of your figures but they are quite at variance with those which I can find online :


Sweden : deaths per million population : 571
Spain : deaths per million population : 610

Total cases of Covid-19 :
Sweden : 8,111
Spain : 7,582

There will be (minor) variations due to testing rates, methods of recording deaths etc but what is conveyed is that Sweden is really in the same "ball-park" as Spain (and indeed the UK).
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I feel that comparing countries against countries is not necessarily productive. There may be too many variables.
Perhaps an issue of more concern is a too rapid opening of the movement of people almost immediately after an opposite policy (lockdown).
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
comparing countries against countries is not necessarily productive.
Comparisons are an important way we learn about what things work, how, and why. Comparisons allow us to understand the concerns such as the one you mention.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
The mortality rate in Spain is about 1%, so quite similar to that of the worst flu outbreaks of recent decades.


I agree that the Covid-19 mortality rate in Spain is probably about 1% but this is NOT similar to that of flu whether "worst outbreaks" or otherwise.
Influenza mortality is difficult to estimate, not least because many/most cases do not seek medical advice so the true number of cases is uncertain. There is also the proviso that flu, in most countries, is not a notifiable disease so again true case rates are somewhat elusive.
With these caveats, most authorities think that the Infection Fatality Rate for flu is about 0.1%, which is markedly less that any quoted rates for Covid-19 which tend to cluster around 0.5 - 1%.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Comparisons are an important way we learn about what things work, how, and why. Comparisons allow us to understand the concerns such as the one you mention.
If all things being equal I would agree...but countries are different geographically. Some are more service industry orientated. These are just two of many factors which would tend to.make comparisons on a like for like basis difficult.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Our homes have become the isolation units of years ago in combatting TB. Years ago certain viruses and diseases were "notifiable". Not in this case as the system couldn't cope.

Did you mean that the system could not cope with admitting Covid-19 victims to "isolation units" rather than it could not cope with making the disease "notifiable"? Remember that a disease being notifiable does not necessarily imply isolation in a special unit (at least in the UK).
Just for clarity, Covid-19 was made a notifiable disease in England on 5 March with Scotland having previously made a similar order on 22 February.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
You are quite correct. It is a notifiable disease. A clumsy sentence of mine. The obligation is on the GP to notify.
The obligation was much more placed on the individual. If every person who had a temperature or cough visited their ,GP (both symptoms of covid infection) they would have to be tested and it could be unrelated.
Even if you were able to make an appointment the system wouldn't have coped. The advice was if you have symptoms to self isolate for the period stipulated. I didnt notice any direction that stated I told anyone I was.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
The government of the northern Spanish region of Castilla y León has ordered the town of Aranda de Duero and its 32,000 residents back into confinement for a fortnight after 230 cases of coronavirus were detected in the area

It's on the Castilla y Aragon Camino.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I agree that the Covid-19 mortality rate in Spain is probably about 1% but this is NOT similar to that of flu whether "worst outbreaks" or otherwise.
Influenza mortality is difficult to estimate, not least because many/most cases do not seek medical advice so the true number of cases is uncertain. There is also the proviso that flu, in most countries, is not a notifiable disease so again true case rates are somewhat elusive.
With these caveats, most authorities think that the Infection Fatality Rate for flu is about 0.1%, which is markedly less that any quoted rates for Covid-19 which tend to cluster around 0.5 - 1%.

I was comparing with the worst flu epidemics of recent decades -- a "normal" seasonal flu is a lot less deadly.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Someone mentioned in this thread or a similar thread that she looks mainly at cumulative numbers for the last 3, 7 or 14 days. Because that gives you an idea how bad or good the situation is right now in a particular area. Because of differences between countries in how these data are defined and collected, these numbers are of limited value when you want to compare countries. Their main purpose is that they show the current development within a region.

Totals show you how badly a country has been hit so far but not how bad the situation is right now.

Where I live, the current threshold is 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants until restrictions will be increased again. Clearly, this figure depends on how much testing is done overall. In March/April, only very sick people got tested. Now, a lot more people get tested including many who are asymptomatic and don't even know that they are infected, like people coming back from their holidays abroad or many more people than earlier who are known to have been in contact with an infected person. Also, as we know from Spain, the figures vary considerably within a country, see for example Catalonia or Madrid vs Galicia.

With this proviso, here is the ECDC's update from yesterday:

ECDC.jpg
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
And the ECDC map that goes with it (5 August 2020):

Map Week 30-31.jpg
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
The UK is starting to make noise that people returning from France may need to go into quarantine ; if that were the case, then those going to France from the UK would need to do the same, given that France has systematically taken such tit-for-tat measures.

Nothing's decided about this yet ; and I'm unsure how pertinent the suggestion is, given that only one Département, Mayenne, has any meaningful spike in cases.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Just saw this in a quality newspaper, and I am quoting it to show the whole pointlessness of many of these figures. It could be any country, Belgium is just as an example to illustrate something:

Travellers arriving in the UK from Belgium, Andorra and the Bahamas will be forced to quarantine for two weeks under new measures, after a surge of Covid-19 cases in the countries. Belgium has suffered a resurgence of the virus, with the country passing 70,000 Covid-19 cases this week. Figures released on Thursday show that it has a rate of 27.8 new cases per 100,000 people compared to the UK’s 8.4. Belgium also has one of the highest per capita coronavirus death rates in the world.
How relevant are these numbers that the writer/editor presents to their readers? Let's see: "Passing 70,000 cases this week" - turns out that this is the number of known infected persons in the country since the beginning of the pandemic. The overwhelming majority of these 70,000 is currently neither infected nor infectious. "Rate of 27.8 new cases vs 8.4" - during which period of time? 3 days? A week? Giving a rate without a time frame is fairly meaningless. "Highest per capita coronavirus death rates in the world" - again, that is a total number per inhabitants since the beginning of the pandemic; the country's current rate over the last 14 days is very low (see table above) plus the classification of Covid-19 deaths since the beginning is not highly comparable between countries because of differences in how such data are classified and counted.

I understand that news articles have to be padded somehow with recycled text from previous articles and with data quickly plucked from John Hopkins or Worldometers. All this, however, doesn't help to understand current situations.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
The message was clearly given by the World Health Organisation at the very start.
"Its coming for you," and "Test, test,test
"They seek him here,
They seek him there,
They seek him nearly everywhere
That damn elusive....Pimpernell"
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
I was comparing with the worst flu epidemics of recent decades -- a "normal" seasonal flu is a lot less deadly.


Would you care to provide a reference for your figures in "the worst flu epidemics of recent decades"?

Try this :

.

Here is a quote from this report (which was essentially about "swine flu" in 2009 in the UK) :

"As the researchers say, the swine flu mortality rate (0.026%) seems much lower than in 20th century flu pandemics. They report that the rate in the 1918-9 H1N1 pandemic was 2-3%, and about 0.2% in the subsequent pandemics (1957-8 and 1967-8)."

So we have a mortality rate of about 0.2% in the pandemics in recent decades.

PS : I am sure that many forum members think that none of this matters and that I am being pedantic but should unsubstantiated remarks be ignored?
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
No.
Nor should 'alternative truths' go unchallenged.
There is nothing wrong with being pedantic about what is reality and what is spin - and about documentation of the former.
Everything does have its place.
I consider myself as being on a ship going through stormy waters. If I go off the charted route I am in danger of hitting the rocks. My safety, and that of everyone on board, is affected by my actions and decisions made by the captain.
I try and stick to the basics and keep it simple.
All l know is that something has restricted me greatly and stopped me from doing things I would like to do. I continue to adhere to the basics. I have no need to analyse things too greatly. I know that certain actions greatly reduced and minimised the risk of infection and mortality.
I would like to get to something resembling normality. To do that statistics showing a rise in this area or that area are unimportant to me....I am not there and have no intention of being there at the moment.
I have a responsibility to not be getting on any aeroplane, travelling to a neighbouring country and travelling through the countryside. I would love to...common sense tells me not to over tables and statistics..I know it's there! I know its here!
It is for that reason I will also not be spending two weeks on a sunny beach somewhere and returning with a face resembling Donald Duck.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I am sure that many forum members think that none of this matters and that I am being pedantic but should unsubstantiated remarks be ignored?
Don't worry, I feel that anyone who enters this thread does so at their own peril. 😄

I for one admire it when someone decides to tackle unsubstantiated remarks instead of ignoring them - where, btw, I find that ignoring them is the harder thing to do.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Don't worry, I feel that anyone who enters this thread does so at their own peril. 😄

I for one admire it when someone decides to tackle unsubstantiated remarks instead of ignoring them - where, btw, I find that ignoring them is the harder thing to do.
The clue is in the title..."discussion". Different opinions are great. It's much livelier than a thread where everyone is in agreement.
Opinions are individual (and aired)...
It is a question of not being afraid or thin skinned if someone takes an opposite view.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Don't worry, I feel that anyone who enters this thread does so at their own peril. 😄

I for one admire it when someone decides to tackle unsubstantiated remarks instead of ignoring them - where, btw, I find that ignoring them is the harder thing to do.
I pressed "like" but seemed to acquire "ha ha" also ; apologies. Can we delete such an error?
 

nycwalking

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Ourense to Santiago (2019), CF: (2014, 2004, 2002, 2001). On to Fisterra, (2002, 4, 14).
Reminds me of a phrase my father used to say...."Ignorance is bliss".

“Where ignorance is bliss, it’s folly to be wise.”

This seems to be the engine on which leadership the world over is running.

Ooooooooohhhhhhhh!
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
The message was clearly given by the World Health Organisation at the very start.
"Its coming for you," and "Test, test,test
"They seek him here,
They seek him there,
They seek him nearly everywhere
That damn elusive....Pimpernell"
They seek him nowhere in particular.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
mortality rate
I'm just picking up the thread from there, I'm not particularly addressing any of your comments, @mjal (but thank you for the link about swine flu, btw). We armchair epidemiologists have learnt to distinguish between several metrics: mortality rates, case fatality rates and what have you. We've also learnt that these metrics get often confused or mixed up. Some of us have actually seen, on our small or large screens, how someone got totally flustered by this recently.

Besides, in the discussion, there's a frequent switch between "what does this mean for me personally" and "what does this mean for our society in general" and "for our various healthcare systems" in particular. Also, it seems to me that there is a difference between rate and ratio but let's ignore this.

Mortality rate or fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease per total population (of a country), often expressed as number of deaths per 100,000 persons. There are currently huge differences between countries. These differences are only to a small extent due to differences in how a Covid-19 death is defined (only if in hospital; or only if confirmed by PCR test or similar; or presence of Covid-19 symptoms). Examples for larger countries at this moment in time (Worldometer): Spain: 61, Italy: 58, USA: 50, Germany: 11, UK: 68. So this is counted from about March until now. The epidemic isn't over yet, so this number is likely to change, i.e. get larger. Comparison to flu (recent or 100 years ago) - nobody seems to know in any greater detail.

Case fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease compared to number of sick people who have or had the disease and this has been confirmed. With the Covid-19 epidemic still ongoing, this number changes; depends on how well cases of sickness are counted, especially with so many asymptomatic cases. Comparison to flu (recent or 100 years ago) - nobody seems to know in any greater detail.

Infection fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease compared to number of people who have or had the disease (ie their total number). Impossible to calculate as total number of infected persons is unknown (asymptomatic and not enough testing).

Then there's the number of active infection cases per capita for a given area (town, region, country) during a given time. Where I live, the "alarm threshold" is 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the last 7 days. Or 5 cases in a small town of 25,000 inhabitants for example.

You can find these definitions pretty much everywhere if you care to look. I've used https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid for this summary.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
I'm just picking up the thread from there, I'm not particularly addressing any of your comments, @mjal (but thank you for the link about swine flu, btw). We armchair epidemiologists have learnt to distinguish between several metrics: mortality rates, case fatality rates and what have you. We've also learnt that these metrics get often confused or mixed up. Some of us have actually seen, on our small or large screens, how someone got totally flustered by this recently.

Besides, in the discussion, there's a frequent switch between "what does this mean for me personally" and "what does this mean for our society in general" and "for our various healthcare systems" in particular. Also, it seems to me that there is a difference between rate and ratio but let's ignore this.

Mortality rate or fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease per total population (of a country), often expressed as number of deaths per 100,000 persons. There are currently huge differences between countries. These differences are only to a small extent due to differences in how a Covid-19 death is defined (only if in hospital; or only if confirmed by PCR test or similar; or presence of Covid-19 symptoms). Examples for larger countries at this moment in time (Worldometer): Spain: 61, Italy: 58, USA: 50, Germany: 11, UK: 68. So this is counted from about March until now. The epidemic isn't over yet, so this number is likely to change, i.e. get larger. Comparison to flu (recent or 100 years ago) - nobody seems to know in any greater detail.

Case fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease compared to number of sick people who have or had the disease and this has been confirmed. With the Covid-19 epidemic still ongoing, this number changes; depends on how well cases of sickness are counted, especially with so many asymptomatic cases. Comparison to flu (recent or 100 years ago) - nobody seems to know in any greater detail.

Infection fatality rate = number of deaths from the disease compared to number of people who have or had the disease (ie their total number). Impossible to calculate as total number of infected persons is unknown (asymptomatic and not enough testing).

Then there's the number of active infection cases per capita for a given area (town, region, country) during a given time. Where I live, the "alarm threshold" is 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the last 7 days. Or 5 cases in a small town of 25,000 inhabitants for example.

You can find these definitions pretty much everywhere if you care to look. I've used https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid for this summary.

Absolutely first-class exposé of the technicalities!

I tend to follow the usage of an OP but do invoke IFR, CFR etc when necessary. I am also conscious that many readers are not always interested in detail but at times it is required. There is also the small matter that I am a (retired) medical practitioner...

Covid-19 immunisation : I shall stick my neck out and say "yes" ; within the next 4-6 months BUT the protection, while substantial, will be short-lived (in keeping with natural coronavirus immunity) and will need to be administered at least annually and perhaps more often. This will be a formidable task in itself, not to mention the problem of the "anti-vaxxers" and their malign influence.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
I tend to follow the usage of an OP but do invoke IFR, CFR etc when necessary.
I can see what IFR and CFR are, but what is OP (other than its usual forum use of Original Post/Poster)?
 

KinkyOne

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
I'am not perfect, but I'm always myself!!!
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Then you have answered your own question.
Not for the first time, I find myself confused after reading one of your posts.
You originally maintained that Covid-19 "mortality" (not precisely specified) in Spain was about the same, at 1%, as the "worst flu epidemics of recent decades". My post invited you to provide a source for this opinion re flu.
I then went on to invite you to consider an opposing viewpoint, supported by a reference, from which I quoted.; a mortality rate for flu of 0.2% in the two most recent severe pandemics, This is just one-fifth that of the Spanish Covid-19 rate.
And you think that I have answered my own question? Does this mean that your assertion re flu death rates was erroneous?
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
I can see what IFR and CFR are, but what is OP (other than its usual forum use of Original Post/Poster)?
Apologies ; I used the term loosely and did not intend it to refer to the first post in the thread.
As I wrote, rather than over-complicate matters, I generally adopt the phraseology in the post to which I am replying even if it is somewhat imprecise ("mortality rate", "death rate" etc rather than IFR or CFR).
Again, as I have already stated, I am never sure how much precision is welcomed by Forum members. When does it become excessive and therefore a a deterrent to reading a post?
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Apologies ; I used the term loosely and did not intend it to refer to the first post in the thread.
As I wrote, rather than over-complicate matters, I generally adopt the phraseology in the post to which I am replying even if it is somewhat imprecise ("mortality rate", "death rate" etc rather than IFR or CFR).
Again, as I have already stated, I am never sure how much precision is welcomed by Forum members. When does it become excessive and therefore a a deterrent to reading a post?
I'm only guessing here (no facts to back me up) but I would think that the majority on this forum are lay people. Would join a thread that discusses rather than analyses. Facts and figures have a place but they may have a tendency to look elsewhere to discuss and give their own thoughts to something.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
Facts and figures have a place but they may have a tendency to look elsewhere to discuss and give their own thoughts to something.
Being 'laypersons' doesn't mean we cannot nor should not educate oouselves. And opining without a basis in fact is a recipe for serious trouble.

So thank you to those here who offer actual data, clarification, and are willing to dig a little to learn what the numbers are saying (looking at you @Kathar1na ... 🙏 ).
 

Marbe2

Active member
Camino(s) past & future
2015-2019 walked all or more than half of CF 7 times... CP recently cancelled by Covid 19!
I for one, am not put off by research data. I find some helpful information regard what is happening, particularly in Europe. It is up to each reader to discern if a particular response is helpful...as it is with every other thread? I am grateful for any research that is being published by reputable sources on COVID 19.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Not for the first time, I find myself confused after reading one of your posts.
You originally maintained that Covid-19 "mortality" (not precisely specified) in Spain was about the same, at 1%, as the "worst flu epidemics of recent decades". My post invited you to provide a source for this opinion re flu.
I then went on to invite you to consider an opposing viewpoint, supported by a reference, from which I quoted.; a mortality rate for flu of 0.2% in the two most recent severe pandemics, This is just one-fifth that of the Spanish Covid-19 rate.
And you think that I have answered my own question? Does this mean that your assertion re flu death rates was erroneous?

hmm, sorry, I think I temporarily confused two stats -- the Spanish (estimated) one and the global (estimated) ; for which I apologise.

I do not understand why the Spanish rate is so much higher, but the estimated mortality rate globally is estimated to be about 0.1% to 0.3%

However, and caveat emptor, an accurate mortality rate cannot be established in the midst of an epidemic, but only some time after it has finished ; so these estimates are to be taken with a pinch of salt.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
I generally adopt the phraseology in the post to which I am replying even if it is somewhat imprecise ("mortality rate", "death rate" etc rather than IFR or CFR). Again, as I have already stated, I am never sure how much precision is welcomed by Forum members. When does it become excessive and therefore a a deterrent to reading a post?
In any thread, the detail can deter reading by some but not by others. You need to pick your audience! However, I would hazard a guess that we have experts on almost any topic you could think of! And as @VNwalking says, many of us are eager and able to expand our understanding of new subject areas. Look at what we have learned since Covid appeared! For awhile we needed the "Maths and Covid 19" thread to accommodate those esoteric discussions.

If you do post detail, though, be prepared to be challenged! This is not an academic forum, we do not have a process for verifying credentials, and all questions are fair (within the rules, of course)!
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I made a point and I'm sticking with it.
I am always polite, respectful and considerate of peoples views..
My point was a very basic one...the thread title was a discussion not an analysis....
I am so happy that the purpose might have been to "educate" me, and others, in the eyes of some. Data and statistics are informative and have a place..I have said that.
Finally...to have suspicions (and voice them) is no bad thing either...they are the "cattle prod" of debate.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
hmm, sorry, I think I temporarily confused two stats -- the Spanish (estimated) one and the global (estimated) ; for which I apologise.
Kudos for this comment, @JabbaPapa. I see all too often in these threads that posters just want to win their argument and stubbornly insist on their viewpoint without making the slightest effort to carefully read a comment, let alone clicking on supporting links with further in-depth information :rolleyes: ... I could say more about general attitudes to public discussion but won't ☺ . Just this (not addressed to you directly but pertinent to the topic). What I really loathe is the slogan "Just follow the science" or "listen to the scientists" (sorry Greta Thunberg) and, in connection with wearing face masks, the argument that in March "they" said not to wear them and now "they" urge us to wear them, and that they are obviously wrong (no, they are not!) without making any efforts to understand any underlying reasons or embracing the apparently unusual concept that further insights and more data and information may lead to a change of "opinion". And I'll stop now before going further off on my tangent.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Kudos for this comment, @JabbaPapa. I see all too often in these threads that posters just want to win their argument and stubbornly insist on their viewpoint without making the slightest effort to carefully read a comment, let alone clicking on supporting links with further in-depth information :rolleyes: ... I could say more about general attitudes to public discussion but won't ☺ . Just this (not addressed to you directly but pertinent to the topic). What I really loathe is the slogan "Just follow the science" or "listen to the scientists" (sorry Greta Thunberg) and, in connection with wearing face masks, the argument that in March "they" said not to wear them and now "they" urge us to wear them, and that they are obviously wrong (no, they are not!) without making any efforts to understand any underlying reasons or embracing the apparently unusual concept that further insights and more data and information may lead to a change of "opinion". And I'll stop now before going further off on my tangent.
Point well.made. now, where do we go from here?
How do you change human behaviour if the basic message doesn't get through?
I am an advocate of masks because I could make the case through my experiences of dealing with toxins and through the old .maxim of "coughs and sneezes spread diseases"
The basic message of "social distancing" was one I took on board at an early stage. Two metres I saw as a minimum and I would need to estimate at times....just keep away from each other.
The Spanish data is of no surprise to me...
They have all the components to make it happen. To list them is pointless. There is an inevitability to ilt all. I can think.things through.
Every day I can see examples of behaviour that make the covid-go-round go on and on and on. Today is going to be hot and sunny.
I can see the evening news already.
I write with a lot of abject frustration and no small experience in matters which are quite salient.
I can only speak for myself but operate the KISS principal. Keep it simple.....I'm stupid.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I was reminded of this thread, and of the question of comparability, either over time, or between countries, or between diseases, when I saw this graph today in La Voz de Galicia (see below). It shows "accumulated cases per 100.000 inhabitants during the previous 14 days". When I look at the graph, I ask myself whether these data should even be used to produce one single graph over time, from the end of February 2020 until now, knowing that in Spain, according to Fernando Simón, they are now "detecting 60-70% of all infections while during the peak (in March/April) we detected less than 10%" and also this: "Although Spain is recording a similar number of cases as at the beginning of March, at that point only 10% of detected cases were asymptomatic; now the average number is 50%" (see El Pais of 31 July 2020 in English).

So that is my point or my question: without more detailed background information, are not many of the comparative figures that are mentioned in the news and that we are bandying about, next to meaningless without a detailed look at what they actually mean, what their context is, and in what ways they are actually comparable? This is just an example, it's not in invitation to discuss the situation in Spain in particular. I saw another example today where accumulated data for whole continents were compared with each other. :rolleyes:

Espana.jpg
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I was reminded of this thread, and of the question of comparability, either over time, or between countries, or between diseases, when I saw this graph today in La Voz de Galicia (see below). It shows "accumulated cases per 100.000 inhabitants during the previous 14 days". When I look at the graph, I ask myself whether these data should even be used to produce one single graph over time, from the end of February 2020 until now, knowing that in Spain, according to Fernando Simón, they are now "detecting 60-70% of all infections while during the peak (in March/April) we detected less than 10%" and also this: "Although Spain is recording a similar number of cases as at the beginning of March, at that point only 10% of detected cases were asymptomatic; now the average number is 50%" (see El Pais of 31 July 2020 in English).

So that is my point or my question: without more detailed background information, are not many of the comparative figures that are mentioned in the news and that we are bandying about, next to meaningless without a detailed look at what they actually mean and in what ways they are actually comparable? This is just an example, it's not in invitation to discuss the situation in Spain in particular. I saw another example where data for whole continents were compared with each other. :rolleyes:

View attachment 80515
In a way you have made my point. Please do not take this as anything personal...it is not.
While I accept that data and tables have a place they can also be confusing and in some cases inaccurate. It is almost an impossibility to compare one continent against another or one country against another...there are too many factors that make that impossible.
The time, in my opinion, to uncover the number of people dying of covid is when one year is up and you subtract the number of expected deaths from the reality.
I feel that to place too much importance on the data provided cannot give a definitive answer as it is early days and data changes.
Whether you use death rates, infection rates, bank rates or mates rates....the time when data is vitally important is when this is all over and you can look back with confidence that the data was accurate.
Finally, we largely know what has happened,
We have a good idea of where we are...I am interested in where we are going.
There are many things that make me more positive now but there remains much that I am very disappointed with.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
In a way you have made my point
It's not about data and their usefulness in connection with Covid-19 past, present and future. It's about the comparability of some of these currently available data.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Even Sobrino de Botin in Madrid (the oldest restaurant in the world) closed its doors for the first time in 300 years of existence:
And just to illustrate the width and breadth and depth of this thread ;): news are just in (from the Spectator's Covid-19 Update newsletter, no less, in their section "Global News") that "a ham festival in the French city of Bayonne will be cancelled for the first time in its 558-year history because of the pandemic". 558 years - that's a trade and consumer fair that started in 1462 and had been held annually without interruption since then, at least none that we know of.

A ham festival, you may ask? It is apparently the ham festival. And I am embarrassed to confess that I travelled through Bayonne without knowing that their ham is famous. 😔
 
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C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
I made a point and I'm sticking with it.
While I accept that data and tables have a place they can also be confusing and in some cases inaccurate.
I don't think that anyone on this thread is disagreeing with you on this point.

If you are talking about how much data and comparison/analysis should be done on this thread or in the media in general, that is a different question.

How do you change human behaviour if the basic message doesn't get through?
You keep trying again, recognizing the different audiences, and filling the gaps in knowledge and understanding, even as that knowledge and understanding change.

I think we have learned a lot in the last few months of non-stop Covid coverage and analysis, both good and bad. We have learned statistics, probabilities, epidemiology, psychology, politics, etc., etc. - in part because we do look at and attempt to compare data, and we argue about those comparisons.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
I don't think that anyone on this thread is disagreeing with you on this point.

If you are talking about how much data and comparison/analysis should be done on this thread or in the media in general, that is a different question.


You keep trying again, recognizing the different audiences, and filling the gaps in knowledge and understanding, even as that knowledge and understanding change.

I think we have learned a lot in the last few months of non-stop Covid coverage and analysis, both good and bad. We have learned statistics, probabilities, epidemiology, psychology, politics, etc., etc. - in part because we do look at and attempt to compare data, and we argue about those comparisons.
You are right of course. It is all these things and more.
I think the answers (and problems) have been hiding in plain sight all along.
We live with the Bubonic plague and all the other viruses that have gone before...we will learn to live with covid.
A good lesson to take on board was in post number 2 of round 6.
 
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Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Um!

Will we?

There’s someplace in the world that has roughly (25) twenty-five percent of both cases and deaths but only represents (4) percent of the world’s population.
Yes we will. All the viruses in the world still exist. Approximately 2000 people die annually from the the Bubonic plague. We will never truly be able to eradicate it we can only minimise and control.
 
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