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COVID COVID-19: Corona virus discussion (ROUND 8)

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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I was simply providing some factual information about what "state of alarm" for Madrid means in the current context

Which you did well !!

As far as I understand it, all this does not directly affect anyone travelling through Barajas airport during the next two weeks but I am not certain.

Hard to say, as the State-sanctioned State of Alarm is a blunter instrument than the one which the regional Madrid Court struck down.

It may boil down to a question of how far the local Police are willing to enforce these various orders -- a good number of our local Police down here on the French Riviera are neither wearing masks, nor enforcing laws banning the sale of booze after 8PM.
 
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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
In Madrid etc :


  • No one can leave or enter the following municipalities, apart from if their journey is justified: Alcobendas, Alcorcón, Fuenlabrada, Getafe, Leganés, Móstoles, Parla and Torrejón de Ardoz. The city of Alcalá de Henares was included in the lockdowns last Friday, but has been taken off the list after its coronavirus data improved, Health Minister Salvador Illa explained on Friday. Justified reasons include work, visits to the doctor or other reasons of force majeure.
  • Within the affected municipalities, citizens are able to move freely, but the government has advised against all unnecessary journeys and activities.
  • The state of alarm will be in place for 15 days, and will have to be approved by the Congress of Deputies if it is to be extended.
  • A maximum of six people are allowed to meet in public or private throughout the whole region, except for activities where specific limits have been established.
  • Stores and establishments such as gyms and hairdressers must limit capacity to 50%, and must close by 10pm.
  • Bars, restaurants and betting houses will be limited to 50% capacity inside and 60% outside, with consumption at bar counters prohibited. They will have to close at 11pm apart from for food deliveries.
  • The capacity in sports venues, both outside and inside, is reduced to 50%, with a maximum of six people for group sports with the exception of official competitions.
  • Academies and private training or teaching centers will see their capacity reduced to 50%.
  • In places of worship, capacity is reduced to a third, with a minimum distance of 1.5 meters. At funeral wakes, there is a limit of 15 people outside, and 10 inside.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
The decree about the state of alarm for Madrid and the restrictions on mobility do not apply to persons in transit; it's clearly stated. Apparently, about 7000 police have been mobilised for controls at roads, train stations like Atocha and the airport. From the news reports and photos it appears that anyone who arrives in a plane at the airport can hop on an Alsa bus to Burgos, for example, just like before.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
144,115 positive PCR tests is FAR FAR less alarming than so many people actually ill with the disease would be.

By at least two orders of magnitude, if not three.

PCR tests are a basically useless tool for the detection of active viral infections.

So PCR tests are of no value in detecting "active viral infections"? The Public Health authorities, world-wide, are wasting time and money and causing disturbance with unnecessary quarantines?

A grain of truth but essentially misleading :


It is well-known that viral RNA can be detected long after the disappearance of the infectious virus in many viral infections. Is it possible that this is why (at least in the UK) PCR tests must be carried out in the first 5 -8 days (different rules for Scotland, Wales, NI versus England) of the infection? The graph in the link illustrates the point that infectious virus reduces rapidly after a peak at 5-6 days and may disappear by 10-11 days. It follows (I think) that those being tested as contacts (with delayed tracing) or on a speculative basis are particularly at risk of being classified as infectious when they are not.

The reference is actually calling for more studies to correlate PCR results with viral culture though on a research basis rather than mass testing.

Why not use viral culture (the "gold standard") for diagnosis? ; low sensitivity and long turn-around time (and, I suspect , expense also).

As in much of Covid-19 debate, we have to work with what is available...so, for now, we need to use PCR tests (with reservations) in the detection of Covid-19.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
So PCR tests are of no value in detecting "active viral infections"?

There is an increasing amount of disinformation in circulation on this issue, but essentially yes.

They are very useful to determine the extent to which a virus has penetrated a given population, and they can be a good pre- or post- diagnosis tool in those who are exhibiting symptoms of the disease.

But the PCR test is incapable of determining by itself the difference between individual exposure to the virus and an individual active viral infection in rapid reproduction phase.

They have nevertheless been useful to help determine the still somewhat misunderstood fact that some people who are heavily eposed to the virus, for example people placed in lockdown with family members ill from the disease, and yet never have any detectable viral load, as an example of positive scientific outcome from such testing ; so that a good degree of useful data has proceeded from these PCR tests, regardless my earlier point.

So perhaps "useless" went too far, but PCR was designed as a fast DNA analysis tool, and certainly a valuable research tool, not as a diagnostic one.

The reference is actually calling for more studies to correlate PCR results with viral culture though on a research basis rather than mass testing.

Sure.

What's needed is a specific test that will actually provide reliable positives / negatives of not just presence of the virus, but whether it is in biological reproduction within the person.

-----

hmmmmm, last post on this matter, as this is not a medical nor scientific/research forum.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
The Spanish Government has deployed national Police and the Guardia Civil to enforce the lockdown of Madrid and generally to prevent people from leaving the city.
 

simply B

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
somewhere between "not enough" and "way too many"
Forward to just about 26:00 (EDIT: forgot link:
and attribution - Dr David Nabarro, the WHO's Special Envoy on Covid-19]

“Just look at what’s happened to the tourism industry, for example in the Caribbean or in the Pacific, because people aren’t taking their holidays. Look what’s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world because their markets have got dented. Look what’s happening to poverty levels. It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. Seems that we may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition because children are not getting meals at school and their parents, in poor families, are not able to afford it,” Nabarro said.

“This is a terrible, ghastly global catastrophe actually,” he added. “And so we really do appeal to all world leaders: Stop using lockdown as your primary control method, develop better systems for doing it, work together and learn from each other, but remember - lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer."

My emphasis in red bold....submitted without further comment.

B
 
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arthur1218

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Have to ask Santa
Well, just as I expected, this virus is meant to have a very long expiry date...
Trust in vaccine, but in meantime, tie well your camels. 🐫🐪🐫
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
There is a lengthy post on Facebook, on the page of the AMCS, the Association of the Towns and Villages of the Camino de Santiago. It informs that it is possible for pilgrims to take either the bus or to walk through Leon. Quote:

Today the first Pilgrim Bus has left as scheduled, with gratitude from pilgrims who have seen themselves in an unstable and uninformed situation these days.
We take this opportunity to expand information that was not made previously due to urgency and conciseness.
First of all, pilgrims CAN continue to transit through León and San Andrés de Rabanedo. It was one of the agreements reached at the beginning of the week with the Junta de Castilla y León. [...] what they cannot do, during the 14 days of mobility restrictions, is spend the night in Leon.
There is some more information about distances to walk in these circumstances and accommodation opportunities. There are also reports from people in the field who say that pilgrims can stay in Leon if they have a prior reservation, again according to the AMCS association, but I've not found it on their website or on their Facebook page.

BTW, San Andrés del Rabanedo is just after Leon. I didn't recall the name at all. I think it is not on the Frances.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
....

And so we really do appeal to all world leaders: Stop using lockdown as your primary control method

My emphasis in red bold....submitted without further comment.
0_16024916466552198460103475788643.jpg
31,000 Kiwis, no masks, no social distancing, many yelling loudly, safely watched a Rugby match against Australia yesterday.

NZ used nationally coordinated lockdowns as their primary weapon against Covid.

Offered without further comment.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
Further to the earlier post about information from the AMCS about the situation in Leon, there is also information on the Facebook page of the Amigos del Camino de Santiago in Leon, which is the pilgrims association of Leon:

AVISO A LOS PEREGRINOS.
Confinamiento en la Ciudad de León.
La Junta Directiva de la Asociación de Amigos del Camino de Santiago de León ¨Pulchra Leonina´, nos remite el siguiente aviso.
"Los peregrinos pueden transitar por la ciudad de León y San Andrés del Rabanedo desde su entrada por Puente Castro hasta abandonar la ciudad y San Andrés del Rabanedo. En este trásito pueden alimentarse pero no pernoctar.
So this says that pilgrims can walk through Leon and get food in Leon but they cannot stay the night.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
NZ used nationally coordinated lockdowns as their primary weapon against Covid. Offered without further comment.
Excellent comment ☺.

To which I would like to add the following: I didn't "forward to just about 26:00" in the video of the interview that Andrew Neil had with David Nabarro, as suggested - btw, I can never stop myself from thinking "Brillopad" when I see Andrew Neil, in an endearing way ☺.

Instead, I listened to the whole contribution that David Nabarro made. Because he had much more to say than a single quotable phrase. David Nabarro's contribution starts around 15:00, a full ten minutes earlier.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
31,000 Kiwis, no masks, no social distancing, many yelling loudly, safely watched a Rugby match against Australia yesterday.
And nobody won!
:eek:
(There are no winners in a lockdown argument, either, it seems, even though as a public health measure lockdowns clearly work.)

Pragmatically, anyone walking the Camino now or wanting to walk at some point in the near future needs to surrender to the fact there may be lockdowns in place at some point along the way — such as what is happening in Leon now. So arguing against lockdowns if you think they don't work (or have too high of a social cost) is a waste of breath, because that is what is happening. The question that's more productive is - given that, what do we do now? Measures to take care of pilgrims are heartwarming - these communities already have a lot on their plate, but the pilgrims' needs are considered in spite of that.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
So arguing against lockdowns if you think they don't work (or have too high of a social cost) is a waste of breath, because that is what is happening.
You took the words out of my keyboard, @VNwalking. I don't want to overstate the obvious but it cannot surprise anyone that posting about the usefulness or non-usefulness of lockdowns on this forum isn't going to wipe out the national lockdown that Spain experienced in March/April/May nor it is going to make the current restrictions on mobility disappear that have been implemented in Madrid and Leon and other towns or regions in Spain.

Much better to spend time on finding accurate practical information and sharing it. 'cause there's room for improvement there. How often have I now seen posts on social media from people who are hundreds and thousands of miles away from Spain and who claim that non-resident pilgrims can't get in and out of Madrid (including the airport) or Leon while the situation "on site" is clearly different when you search for information from people who are THERE.

BTW, about 300 pilgrims have been arriving daily at the Pilgrim's Office in Santiago throughout these first two weeks of October.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
If your sources of information go beyond your daily social media feed you will know by now that since Dr Nabarro’s claims, Dr Margaret Harris [official spokesperson] from the WHO insisted the advice has been misreported and Dr Nabarro was only stating lockdowns should be used as a last resort when governments have large levels of transmission. "It is not a backflip, it is not a change in advice," Dr Harris said in an interview with TODAY on Monday morning. “What it is, is a bit of misreporting that has gone on, over the weekend.

And it IS political.

Please pause and think before you choose a video for your posts on this forum.

BTW, David Nabarro is one of six Special Envoys on Covid-19 and their task is to provide strategic advice and high-level political advocacy and engagement.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
And it IS political
Please pause and think before you choose a video for your posts on this forum.
I might I might add the suggestion to consider if your post applies specifically to the Camino. Generic arguments for or against lockdowns are actually a waste of our collective time and energy, regardless of which side of the argument we stand.
 

jirit

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2007,
Via Francigena Italy, 2008,
Jakobsweg Austria 2010,
Camino Frances 2011,
Le Puy to Lourdes 2012,
Via de la Plata 2013,
Future:
Ökumenischer (Via Regia), Germany,
Lycian Way, Turkey
Well this is totally not camino related. But it’s happening right here in my town and is extremely depressing. Scientists at my university developed a rapid saliva test. They developed a model, an app, a program to test everyone twice a week (no university access without a screen shot of a negative test), 20 tents on campus for testing 7 days a week. This is a big deal on a campus with 60,000 students. They thought they had thought of everything. The students came back, they started testing. But we have an unexpected big spike, and people are nervous.

Today the computer scientists and others who developed the model explained the model’s flaw. They had accurately predicted the large numbers of students who would test positive, but what they hadn’t factored into their model was the number of students who have tested positive and have totally ignored all the required steps of quarantine, gone to large parties, etc. Instead, they assumed that once diagnosed, the students would follow the rules. Silly them.

I am not sure what the lessons are here, but it does suggest that we cannot rely on voluntary compliance to stop the spread.
On the subject of testing. this interview is enlightening... Harvard professor highlights the need for rapid testing that is both cheap and effective - that could result in a drop of cases within weeks


 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
With respect, @JabbaPapa , @Doughnut NZ lives in New Zealand, and so he knows more about the situation there than any of us who happen to be somewhere else right now.

Can we please get back to the talking about covid-19 as it relates to the Camino?
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
There is a semi-lockdown in Navarre, for 15 days. Bar and Restaurants must close by 10PM, and no social gatherings of more than 6 people are permitted.

A 15-day semi-lockdown is also expected in Catalonia.
 

Jomas

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
VF many times. Monaco-Lindau '15. Assisi-Pietralcina '17. CF '18.
Can we please get back to the talking about covid-19 as it relates to the Camino?
with all respect and without wanting to be offensive, @VNwalking , after 8 chapters of this thread, plus the one on covid-related math, where we talked about everything ... but absolutely everything ... I would say that your request is not consistent .
Those who want to read the interventions, do it .... those who do not care, pass on. 😇
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
No offense taken @Jomas. :)
And you're quite right about how widely ranging these conversations have been—and I've been as guilty as anyone. I guess I'm just getting weary of the endless discussions/arguments about things that actually have very little to do with the Camino.

There is a semi-lockdown in Navarre, for 15 days. Bar and Restaurants must close by 10PM, and no social gatherings of more than 6 people are permitted.
Not good news. I hope peregrin@s are getting a heads-up.
 
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Jomas

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
VF many times. Monaco-Lindau '15. Assisi-Pietralcina '17. CF '18.
No offense taken @Jomas. :)
And you're quite right about how widely ranging these conversations have been—and I've been as guilty as anyone. I guess I'm just getting weary of the endless discussions/arguments about things that actually have very little to do with the Camino.

actually I have the same feeling as you .... but I must say that sometimes it is useful to read the comments and the published sources.
I find it interesting. In the middle of everything there is always a link to the "camino" ... at least I think so.
And basically it is inevitable to take the discussion out of the real path .... we are chasing a great "enemy" who is putting us to the test and leaves a bad taste in our mouth ... and not just because we don't know when we will return to walk those "ways"
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
actually I have the same feeling as you .... but I must say that sometimes it is useful to read the comments and the published sources I find it interesting. In the middle of everything there is always a link to the "camino" ... at least I think so.
When this thread series started we knew little about the virus and the disease and there were very few online sources so it made sense then to exchange what little information we could find. But now? For example, today I googled "rapid test" "Covid 19". Google came up with 18.700.000 results.

"Test rapido" "Covid-19" site:.es for Spain yielded a more modest number of 141.000 results.
 
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peregrina2000

Moderator
Staff member
With apologies to @C clearly and Lewis Carroll, the walrus is back. (If you don’t get the joke, you are one of the lucky ones who has not waded into the craziness of these covid threads).

Time to close. Time to rethink the scope of covid discussion on the forum.

There is a sub-forum for covid and the camino, and I hope members can post their camino-related threads on that sub-forum. No need for any general covid discussion thread, it seems. The PM is always there for those who want to engage.
 
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