Decrease in numbers walking the Camino Frances through Palencia province

[Bradypus]

A local news website in Palencia has commented on the decrease in numbers of people walking through the province on the Camino Frances. A drop of about 9% over two years. Something which it attributes to the increasing popularity of other routes, especially amongst those walking a second or subsequent Camino.

https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/palencia/camino-santiago-palencia-20190103133118-nt.html

 

[andycohn]

In fact, travel along all of the Frances — if you leave out the Sarria - SDC section — has decreased in each of the last 4 years. Omitting the Sarria - SDC only pilgrims, 97,689 pilgrims walked the Frances in 2018 vs. 101,020 in 2017.

 

[Rj7797]

Interesting, I wonder how this will change in a holy year. The first 400k were my favorite part of the Frances. Would love to do them again.

 

[Bradypus]

Interesting, I wonder how this will change in a holy year.

The total for the 2010 Holy Year was almost double the figure for 2009. An increase in that sort of scale would be interesting to say the least....

 

[tomnorth]

When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.

I just looked this up. The next Holy Year is 2021. Whew! I’m planning to walk in 2020.

 

[Bradypus]

When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.

I will probably walk some part of the Caminos that year. But if so it will be one of the quiet routes in the middle of winter. I am not comfortable with big crowds and the Xunta is trying very hard to generate interest in the 2021 Holy Year with an intention of attracting up to 500,000 pilgrims receiving Compostelas for the year.

 

[lt56ny]

When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.

I just looked this up. The next Holy Year is 2021. Whew! I’m planning to walk in 2020.

Holy year = winter walk

 

[t2andreo]

The total for the 2010 Holy Year was almost double the figure for 2009. An increase in that sort of scale would be interesting to say the least....

I calculated the rate of increase in total annual pilgrims received at the pilgrim Office from 2009 to 2010. IIRC, the rate of increase was 54 percent from the pre-Holy Year year (2009) to the actual Holy Year (2010). WOW!

For 2018, the Pilgrim Office processed some 327k pilgrims. Do the math... Figure at least a 10 percent increase in 2019, then in 2020. Then in 2021 assume maybe as much as 50 percent additional over the 2020 result.

2019 or A = (327k x 1.10) = A = 359,700
2020 or B = (A x 1.10) = B = 395,700
2021 or C = (B x 1.50) = C = 593,500 YIKES!

If anyone finds errors in this logic, please jump in... I was trying to be conservative in my year-to-year rates of increase. In fact, the year-to-year increases have been running more than my assumed 10% annually. Plus, the actual 2009 - 2010 rate of increase was 54 percent. I used 50 percent...

NOTE: This DOES NOT include those folks who just arrived at the Pilgrim Office, asked for a stamp / sello, and went away. It also does not include folks who just end their Camino with a sello from their lodgings at Santiago.

This also does not include pilgrims who arrive by bus, trains, and automobiles. Catholic doctrine regarding obtaining the plenary indulgence requires that the pilgrim complete certain activities and perform specific religious duties.

However, a pilgrimage into Santiago is not one of the prerequisites to receive the plenary indulgence. So, a pilgrim arriving during the Holy Year does not have to walk into Santiago. BUT, they can go to the Pilgrim Office to request a Certificate of Visitation (to the Cathedral). This means they will factor into the overall volume there. They will also use valuable bed space.

These "tourigrinos" may not impose a burden out on the Camino heading IN TO Santiago, but they will certainly gum up the works in Santiago proper.

I have no idea what the variance in actual numbers is or will be, but I would hazard a reasonable quess of at least 10 - 15 percent additional pilgrims not captured in the official stats. So, as regards the coming Holy Year, PLAN AHEAD to avoid as much of the 'pig in the proverbial python' as you can.

Assume that lodgings on the major routes, Francis, Portuguese, Norte, Plata, and Primitivo will be over-subscribed, at least from May through September. You can forget doing the last 100 km on any of these routes. I assess that this is where the initial glut will be seen.

For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...

Try the:

1. Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
2. Camino Ingles from Ferrol
3. Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
4. Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.

There are other Camino detour alternatives to keep you off the main route of march most of the time. Learn them.

Alternatively, plan YOUR Camino in an off-peak time, before mid-May or after mid-September.

Finally, instead of walking, consider volunteering instead at the Pilgrim Office in Santiago during the Holy Year 2021. I presume it will be "all hands to the pumps" all year. See my separate thread on the volunteering issue... Lodging is free. They require a minimum two-week commitment. My annual stint is a month. But, I have been doing this six-years running.

http://www.caminodesantiago.me/comm...pilgrim-office-at-santiago.52794/#post-667906

Planning ahead is your best method to avoid the coming crowds...

Hope this helps.

 

[John Sikora]

It's interesting that the numbers have declined along all sections of the CF other than Sarria - Santiago. For me the Sarria part was the least enjoyable (not because of the crowds which don't really bother me). I found the other rural parts of Spain truly enjoyable (even and particularly the mesetas). I'll bet the numbers would change if they changed the requirements for the compostela

 

[Bradypus]

I calculated the rate of increase in total annual pilgrims received at the pilgrim Office from 2009 to 2010. IIRC, the rate of increase was 54 percent from the pre-Holy Year year (2009) to the actual Holy Year (2010). WOW!

Arithmetic was never one of my best subjects but I wonder how you reach the figure of a 54% increase. According to the pilgrim office statistics 145,877 Compostelas were issued in 2009 and 272,135 in the 2010 Holy Year. I make that an additional 126,258 people and therefore an 87% increase on the previous year.

 

[Rj7797]

If those calculations are correct one would think that has to be "peak" camino. Yeesh. Some inventive Spaniards should mark a couple new routes branching off before Sarria and going around. .

 

[KinkyOne]

...

For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...

Try the:

1. Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
2. Camino Ingles from Ferrol
3. Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
4. Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.

There are other Camino detour alternatives to keep you off the main route of march most of the time. Learn them.
...

Camino de Invierno 100km point is in Monforte de Lemos.

CdI later joins Camino Sanabres where 100km point is in Ourense. You can use Ourense also if you start on Portugues Interior, Portugues do Este, Portugues de la Plata and Sanabres.

All in all plenty of options south of CF to avoid (Holy Year) crowds.

 

[t2andreo]

It's interesting that the numbers have declined along all sections of the CF other than Sarria - Santiago. For me the Sarria part was the least enjoyable (not because of the crowds which don't really bother me). I found the other rural parts of Spain truly enjoyable (even and particularly the mesetas). I'll bet the numbers would change if they changed the requirements for the compostela

Several Camino routes flow into the Camino Frances weather before or after Sarria. Not all the folks on the Sarria to Santiago segment are all off the Camino Frances.

 

[Annette london]

When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.

I just looked this up. The next Holy Year is 2021. Whew! I’m planning to walk in 2020.[/QUOTE
Whew again!!

Thank you for that Tomnorth,
We will also be walking the CF around June 2020
Annette

 

[t2andreo]

Arithmetic was never one of my best subjects but I wonder how you reach the figure of a 54% increase. According to the pilgrim office statistics 145,877 Compostelas were issued in 2009 and 272,135 in the 2010 Holy Year. I make that an additional 126,258 people and therefore an 87% increase on the previous year.

You are correct mathematically. Using your numbers, I get the same result. As I did my original calculation some months ago, I am trying to remember where I obtained my numbers for 2009 and 2010...ah, perhaps a senior moment...

But, the point is made. Even if my numbers WERE correct, and worked out to a 54 percent one-year increase, from 2009 to 2010, an increase of 87 percent (as you point out) would be even MORE catastrophic.

I will continue to try to recall where I got my numbers... However, the computational logic holds true, I think.

Just for yucks, if I substitute your 87% for my 54%, the resulting projection for 2021 would be about 740,000. DOUBLE YIKES!

Perhaps we should just agree to stipulate that, based on known volumes of pilgrims arriving at the Pilgrim Office, the likely 2021 volumes range anywhere from surprisingly large to crippling.

Given this, I would suggest that more of you Camino veterans consider offering your services as volunteers at the Pilgrim Office. Given what we think we know, they will be in dire need of more bodies to help keep the queues moving. I would recommend contacting them in late 2020.

Thanks for the discussion.

Hope this helps.

 

[tomnorth]

You are correct mathematically. Using your numbers, I get the same result. As I did my original calculation some months ago, I am trying to remember where I obtained my numbers for 2009 and 2010...ah, perhaps a senior moment...

But, the point is made. Even if my numbers WERE correct, and worked out to a 54 percent one-year increase, from 2009 to 2010, an increase of 87 percent (as you point out) would be even MORE catastrophic.

I will continue to try to recall where I got my numbers... However, the computational logic holds true, I think.

Just for yucks, if I substitute your 87% for my 54%, the resulting projection for 2021 would be about 740,000. DOUBLE YIKES!

Perhaps we should just agree to stipulate that, based on known volumes of pilgrims arriving at the Pilgrim Office, the likely 2021 volumes range anywhere from surprisingly large to crippling.

Given this, I would suggest that more of you Camino veterans consider offering your services as volunteers at the Pilgrim Office. Given what we think we know, they will be in dire need of more bodies to help keep the queues moving. I would recommend contacting them in late 2020.

Thanks for the discussion.

Hope this helps.

Is Spanish proficiency important?

 

[t2andreo]

Some is very helpful. Even though i’ve Volunteered for five years, my Spanish is not conversant enough to do Compostela interviews over the counter.

But, there is a LOT that needs doing, in front of the counter. Managing the queue, getting pilgrims ready for their interviews before they walk up to the counter, answering questions, providing help as needed, refilling supplies so the counter staff can remain productive, running errands, and just generally doing anything that needs doing.

This covers the major stuff.

Hope this helps.

 

[C clearly]

As I did my original calculation some months ago, I am trying to remember where I obtained my numbers for 2009 and 2010.

I think what you did was calculate that the 2009 numbers were only 54% of the 2010 numbers. But that is the inverse of what you wanted to do.

 

[t2andreo]

Doesn’t surprise me. But an 84 % increase is downright frightening in its ramifications.

Even at maximum staffing, the office will be hard pressed to handle this volume. My guess is that they will extend hours, and try to adjust the process.

We will see what develops...

 

[Bradypus]

Doesn’t surprise me. But an 84 % increase is downright frightening in its ramifications.

Would be pretty modest compared with some Holy Year spikes in the past. Just been looking at the annual totals as given on the Spanish Wikipedia article on the Caminos. The 1993 Holy Year was the first to be very actively promoted by the Xunta and other Spanish official bodies. In 1992 there had been 9,764 Compostelas handed out. In the 1993 Holy Year that jumped to 99,436. More than 10 times the previous year. Imagine the queues at the pilgrim office and the bed rush if that happens in 2021

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno

 

[Pelegrin]

I will probably walk some part of the Caminos that year. But if so it will be one of the quiet routes in the middle of winter. I am not comfortable with big crowds and the Xunta is trying very hard to generate interest in the 2021 Holy Year with an intention of attracting up to 500,000 pilgrims receiving Compostelas for the year.

Yes, the Xunta is now preparing the Strategic Plan for Xacobeo 2021 and probably a specific "Conselleria" (Ministry) will be created for that event.
So, the thing is serious.

 

[Kathar1na]

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno
View attachment 50435

What strikes me about these numbers is the fact that, since 1993, the increase of pilgrims who obtain a Compostela during a Jacobean Holy Year, compared to the previous year, is nearly constant, very roughly a plus in the region of 100,000 pilgrims.

No ability to handle percentages required.

 

[David Tallan]

Would be pretty modest compared with some Holy Year spikes in the past. Just been looking at the annual totals as given on the Spanish Wikipedia article on the Caminos. The 1993 Holy Year was the first to be very actively promoted by the Xunta and other Spanish official bodies. In 1992 there had been 9,764 Compostelas handed out. In the 1993 Holy Year that jumped to 99,436. More than 10 times the previous year. Imagine the queues at the pilgrim office and the bed rush if that happens in 2021

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno

View attachment 50435

Interesting. The Holy Year of 1982 appears to be the turning point and the beginning of more or less steady growth.

 

[Moonstruck]

I didn't even know about the Holy Year until after I finished the CF in May this year. I am glad it's not a holy year. From Sarria to SDC is my least favourite section because the energy on the Camino changed after Sarria. We love the Meseta, if we walk the CF again, we will stop at Leon and avoid the last section. Sorry this might be off topic, but we are thinking about the Francigena to Rome in a few years, from your experience, will there be more people walking the Francigena in 2021 because it is a Holy Year?

 

[David Tallan]

I didn't even know about the Holy Year until after I finished the CF in May this year. I am glad it's not a holy year. From Sarria to SDC is my least favourite section because the energy on the Camino changed after Sarria. We love the Meseta, if we walk the CF again, we will stop at Leon and avoid the last section. Sorry this might be off topic, but we are thinking about the Francigena to Rome in a few years, from your experience, will there be more people walking the Francigena in 2021 because it is a Holy Year?

I didn't even know about the Holy Year until after I finished the CF in May this year. I am glad it's not a holy year. From Sarria to SDC is my least favourite section because the energy on the Camino changed after Sarria. We love the Meseta, if we walk the CF again, we will stop at Leon and avoid the last section. Sorry this might be off topic, but we are thinking about the Francigena to Rome in a few years, from your experience, will there be more people walking the Francigena in 2021 because it is a Holy Year?

I believe 2021 is a Jacobean Holy Year (when July 25 falls on a Sunday) rather than one of the more general Holy Years occasionally proclaimed by the Pope. As such, I would expect to only affect the Caminos de Santiago.

 

[Peligro]

Holy year = winter walk

Or picking a lovely starting point in France and ending in SJPP.

 

[Thornley]

or 2018, the Pilgrim Office processed some 327k pilgrims. Do the math... Figure at least a 10 percent increase in 2019, then in 2020. Then in 2021 assume maybe as much as 50 percent additional over the 2020 result.

Compounding with share returns or term deposits is the way to a fortune , not sure if compounding pilgrim numbers is the factual way t2.
Anything can happen

 

[DebraS.]

Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive. Yes, finding a place to sleep "unplanned" might be difficult but it is now so easy to plan ahead. Maybe it will also give incentive for more camping sites to pop up. I would love that.

 

[C clearly]

Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive.

Unfortunately, thriving villages need an economy that goes beyond fast food service for itinerant passersby during high season. I think increased numbers on the Sarria-Santiago stretch would be a problem. and undesirable. Modest increases on the earlier parts might be fine.

 

[SafariGirl]

Holy year = winter walk

I like the sound of that

 

[SafariGirl]

Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive. Yes, finding a place to sleep "unplanned" might be difficult but it is now so easy to plan ahead. Maybe it will also give incentive for more camping sites to pop up. I would love that.

You’re not the only one Debra

 

[Kathar1na]

Interesting, I wonder how this will change in a holy year. The first 400k were my favorite part of the Frances. Would love to do them again.

If previous Jacobean Holy Years are anything to go by with, the increase in numbers will be mainly felt in the parts of the Camino Frances and other roads that are closer to Santiago, ie in Galicia. During the two previous Holy Years 2004 and 2010, the increase in numbers was mainly due to Spanish pilgrims and concerned in particular starting points like Sarria, Cebreiro and Tui.

To some extent, of course, it will depend on the aims and on the success of PR campaigns, but let's face it, outside of Spain, "the Camino" is better known than Saint James and his feast day and Holy Years. I sometimes get the impression that pilgrims know little more about it all other than the apostle's name and that he wears pilgrim's clothes and carries a stick ...

Due to our calendar system, it's been 11 years since there had been a Holy Year to celebrate; perhaps that will make a difference. They will now come a bit faster: 2021, 2027 and 2032.

 

[Kathar1na]

Will I walk on the roads to Santiago in 2021 if I'm still around and able to do so? I dunno. I very much like the idea of walking to Villafranca del Bierzo in 2021 but I won't say why.

 

[Jeff Crawley]

Would be pretty modest compared with some Holy Year spikes in the past. Just been looking at the annual totals as given on the Spanish Wikipedia article on the Caminos. The 1993 Holy Year was the first to be very actively promoted by the Xunta and other Spanish official bodies. In 1992 there had been 9,764 Compostelas handed out. In the 1993 Holy Year that jumped to 99,436. More than 10 times the previous year. Imagine the queues at the pilgrim office and the bed rush if that happens in 2021

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno

View attachment 50435

And I thought it was busy in 2001!

 

[Jeff Crawley]

Will I walk on the roads to Santiago in 2021 if I'm still around and able to do so? I dunno. I very much like the idea of walking to Villafranca del Bierzo in 2021 but I won't say why.

Is there a prediction for a vintage year for Bierzo wine?

 

[Prentiss Riddle]

For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...

Try the:

1. Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
2. Camino Ingles from Ferrol
3. Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
4. Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.

Thanks for this, especially the Greenway switcheroo route.

How do these compare to the CF in difficulty?

 

[Anniesantiago]

Personally, I'll be happy when it all slows back down.

 

[t2andreo]

Thanks for this, especially the Greenway switcheroo route.

How do these compare to the CF in difficulty?

The Invierno is much hillier than the Frances from Ponferrada into Santiago, at least until after Monforte de Lemos. Then it becomes more rolling for the last 100 km or so.

The Portuguese is about the same as the Frances.

Cannot speak to the Ingles, as i have not done it.

Same for the Primitivo. However, I plan to do it in early May this year. My statements are based on my research to date.

Hope this helps.

 

[Moonstruck]

Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive. Yes, finding a place to sleep "unplanned" might be difficult but it is now so easy to plan ahead. Maybe it will also give incentive for more camping sites to pop up. I would love that.

You are not the only one. I would love to see not only the CF but all other Camino routes to grow and prosper. Moderate and steady growth on the entire CF is healthy, but a sudden increase in the number of pilgrims from Sarria in a holy year will strain the existing infrastructure and will hardly benefit any deserted villages. I don't know how they promote the CF in Europe, but I suppose it does not matter, given the requirement of accreditation of the pilgrimage is 100 km, there will always be more people walking after Sarria.

 

[lt56ny]

Or picking a lovely starting point in France and ending in SJPP.

Did the Camino from Le Puy, you can't go wrong with that one. Just finished the Norte. Started in the middle of September. The first couple of weeks are hard but really beautiful. About 5 days out of Santander I was alone most days and even had a few albergues where I was the lone Pilgrim.

 

[Thornley]

Monforte de Lemos. Then it becomes more rolling for the last 100 km or so.

A lovely , beautiful small city with every facility to commence from , stay in The Parador at the start and finish and enjoy the Invierno in quietness and bliss

 

[Prentiss Riddle]

In fact, travel along all of the Frances — if you leave out the Sarria - SDC section — has decreased in each of the last 4 years. Omitting the Sarria - SDC only pilgrims, 97,689 pilgrims walked the Frances in 2018 vs. 101,020 in 2017.

Is there a section-by-section breakdown of Camino stats somewhere? I’d love to see that.

 

[Bradypus]

Is there a section-by-section breakdown of Camino stats somewhere? I’d love to see that.

Not quite sure what you mean. The pilgrim office publishes a detailed breakdown of numbers starting from particular towns, routes walked, nationalities and so on. By month or by year.

https://oficinadelperegrino.com/estadisticas/

 

[t2andreo]

Compounding with share returns or term deposits is the way to a fortune , not sure if compounding pilgrim numbers is the factual way t2.
Anything can happen

THEY WILL COME!

 

[Thornley]

THEY WILL COME!

You make the Compostela 200km and watch it DROP
Not by 10% BUT 40-60% for many reasons, which would be a nice debate t2 in a favourite restaurant in San Clemente Sq.

The commercialism from Sarria for this certificate makes the following special;

1/ Muxia and or Finisterre for the same certificate [ Finisterre]
2/ Monforte de Lemos [ Invierno ]
3/ Ferrol and or A Coruna [ Inglese]

 

[Thornley]

THEY WILL COME!

Have a look at ****Hyams Beach in NSW , magnificent setting with the ****worlds whitest sand .
Parking spots allocated in this beautiful village for visitors where people live = 400
Total vehicles per day in peak season now = 5000 per day

They have closed access and redirected people to other beaches.

******"Loved to death" t2 ........... does this sound familiar ,
Suggest commercial operators be pegged back a little ....you will get a laugh now in the follow up to this suggestion.

 

[JabbaPapa]

Interesting. The Holy Year of 1982 appears to be the turning point and the beginning of more or less steady growth.

Though I'd view 1984 as the year when this phenomenon of constant growth kicked off, 1993 when it became a mass phenomenon, but still 1965 as year zero of the current revival of the Way of Saint James.

 

[JabbaPapa]

To some extent, of course, it will depend on the aims and on the success of PR campaigns, but let's face it, outside of Spain, "the Camino" is better known than Saint James and his feast day and Holy Years. I sometimes get the impression that pilgrims know little more about it all other than the apostle's name and that he wears pilgrim's clothes and carries a stick ...

I think you're mistaking "outside of the Catholic sphere" with "outside of Spain" -- Many Catholics throughout Mediterranean Europe at least will be more likely to be motivated towards a Camino in a Holy Year than in other years, particularly in South-Eastern France from whence it's easier to start a Camino from their own parish than elsewhere.

 

[JabbaPapa]

I was interested at looking at the numbers for the Portugues, for comparison :

2010 : 34,147 (12% of all pilgrims)
2011 : 22,062 (12,03%)
2012 : 25,628 (13,31%)
2013 : 29,550 (13,69%)
2014 : 35,501 (14,92%)
2015 : 43,151 (16,44%)
2016 : 49,538 (17,83%)

(didn't look further back than Holy Year 2010, and don't have 2017 or 2018)

hmmm, the increases seem a lot smoother and steadier than the overall combined numbers, though what's also interesting is the continuing significant increases in the % of those following that Camino route than others (I will myself this year !! - though I'll also follow the Francès a revès).

There's a +44.5% increase (!!!) in 5 years between 2011 and 2016, which year-to-year means :

2012 : +8.6% ; 2013 : +8.7% ; 2014 : +8.3 % ; 2015 : +8.2% ; 2016 : +8.7% -- average, a neat 8.5% -- which I'd suggest could be an indicator of the baseline growth rate less affected by external numbers, fads, fashions started by movies, books, and TV than the Francès numbers are ?