Extrapolating from the summer stats...

[Mark2012]

I've mentioned elsewhere recently that having walked the Frances once before (May & June 2012), I'm hoping (fingers crossed!) to walk in again this year, probably starting in early July, and therefore arriving in Santiago towards mid-August.

Obviously, that means I'll be moving into the peak season, which has left me wondering about how much busier it is likely to be this time compared to last time. Someone on another thread made reference to how numbers starting from St Jean actually drop during the summer months compared to May, which took me by surprise initially, as I merely assumed it would be noticeably busier all along the track. So, I went sniffing around for some official stats and found a few interesting numbers.

In June 2013, Compostelas were awarded to 20,964 pilgrims who said they walked the French way. The most popular indicated starting points were as follows:

Sarria 5,627
St Jean 4,880
Leon 1,546
Roncesvalles 1,461
O Cebreiro 1,247
Ponferrada 862
Astorga 741

For July 2013, with a total of 25,197, the corresponding numbers look like this:

Sarria 8,855 (+3,228)
St Jean 3,681 (-1,199)
O Cebreiro 2102 (+855)
Leon 1,590 (+44)
Astorga 1,566 (+825)
Ponferrada 1,470 (+608)
Roncesvalles 1,157 (-304)

For August 2013 (total: 31,606):

Sarria 12,557 (+3,702)
St Jean 3,686 (+5)
O Cebreiro 2,735 (+633)
Leon 2,299 (+709)
Ponferrada 2,222 (+742)
Roncesvalles 1,645 (+488)
Astorga 1,112 (-454)

So, what to make of all of this? The most eye-catching numbers, of course, relate to Sarria, where the numbers explode as the summer progresses. I suppose that's not a surprise. Looking at the August numbers, on average more than 400 Compostelas were awarded on a daily basis to Pilgrims starting from Sarria, with less than 190 awarded to that category in June. So, it's no newsflash to see that it's going to get very busy from Sarria. I was aware of it in June 2012, but I can expect to be a lot more aware of it in August 2014.

Aside from that, though, St Jean & Roncesvalles numbers dip noticeably from June to July (which of course translates into pilgrims who would have mainly started in May and June respectively), with St Jean only increasing marginally in August, while Roncesvalles recovers to exceed its June numbers. If I hadn't been alerted to this statistical trend, I would never have guessed it was like this.

The big take home message, as I see it, seems to be that while the overall numbers on the Frances surge by approximately 50% in this three month stretch (20,964 Compostelas in June to 31,606 in August), the overwhelming majority of this is accounted for by the Sarria surge.

So, what I'm wondering is am I interpreting this correctly? If so, it seems to suggest that starting from St Jean in early-July 2014 I can expect it to be no busier than it was in late-May 2012 (I would say less busy, looking at the above stats, but I know that year-on-year numbers are up across the board) and while the popular start points will become gradually busier as the summer progresses, there won't be a real sense of the Camino becoming crowded until we reach Sarria. Is this wishful thinking on my part or an accurate read of what the above numbers suggest?

 

[Deleted member 3000]

I tracked the daily Compostelas given last year, but only from mid-August. The peak day was August 24 (some portion of the pilgrims started in SJPdP on about July 20), when 2,128 were awarded. The Pilgrim Office is open twelve hours, so that was nearly 200 per hour, or three per minute! Depending on who you believe, there are 400 or 800 beds in Monte do Gozo. The crowd may have filled it five times over. Competing for a hotel in Santiago were additional thousands of car and bus visitors.

It is a busy time of the year...

 

[Mark2012]

I tracked the daily Compostelas given last year, but only from mid-August. The peak day was August 24 (some portion of the pilgrims started in SJPdP on about July 20), when 2,128 were awarded. The Pilgrim Office is open twelve hours, so that was nearly 200 per hour, or three per minute! Depending on who you believe, there are 400 or 800 beds in Monte do Gozo. The crowd may have filled it five times over. Competing for a hotel in Santiago were additional thousands of car and bus visitors.

It is a busy time of the year...

That's a very interesting statistic. When you consider that 31,606 Compostelas were awarded in August to pilgrims who walked the Frances (from wherever) and that accounted for 68% of the total Compostelas registered for that month and that August 24 was a Saturday... it perhaps suggests two points that feel intuitively true - the surge in August accelerates through the month and that proportionally speaking more pilgrims are likely to reach Santiago during the weekend.

That suggests - maybe, just maybe - arriving in Santiago by the middle of the month ideally on a week-day might be the best way to avoid the worst of the crowds. Either that or I'm clutching at straws! ;-)

I'm surprised there isn't a log kept online somewhere with the daily Compostelas. With those numbers on hand, it would be a lot easier to interpret the ebb and flow of pilgrims. The monthly figures are extremely useful, but daily stats would be amazing. I might be revealing a very sad side to my personality with statements like that!!! ;-)

 

[Deleted member 3000]

more pilgrims are likely to reach Santiago during the weekend

They do, in part because they leave Sarria on the previous weekend. Friday arrivals may have waited until Saturday to get Compostelas, so there is some uncertainty on actual arrivals.

 

[KinkyOne]

That's a very interesting statistic. When you consider that 31,606 Compostelas were awarded in August to pilgrims who walked the Frances (from wherever) and that accounted for 68% of the total Compostelas registered for that month and that August 24 was a Saturday... it perhaps suggests two points that feel intuitively true - the surge in August accelerates through the month and that proportionally speaking more pilgrims are likely to reach Santiago during the weekend.

That suggests - maybe, just maybe - arriving in Santiago by the middle of the month ideally on a week-day might be the best way to avoid the worst of the crowds. Either that or I'm clutching at straws! ;-)

I'm surprised there isn't a log kept online somewhere with the daily Compostelas. With those numbers on hand, it would be a lot easier to interpret the ebb and flow of pilgrims. The monthly figures are extremely useful, but daily stats would be amazing. I might be revealing a very sad side to my personality with statements like that!!! ;-)

Hi, Mark,

you can track daily issued compostelas here:
http://peregrinossantiago.es/eng/

Ultreia!

 

[Mark2012]

Hi, Mark,

you can track daily issued compostelas here:
http://peregrinossantiago.es/eng/

Ultreia!

Thanks for the link. If only there was an archive of the daily numbers on the website!

 

[KinkyOne]

Thanks for the link. If only there was an archive of the daily numbers on the website!

Try contact @JohnnieWalker , he might help you with daily stats.

 

[Deleted member 3000]

For the last part of last year:

http://www.caminodesantiago.me/camino-de-santiago-calendar.htm

Look at the first line of each day from mid-July.

 

[whariwharangi]

One thing to consider is that the pilgrim's office only collects statistics on people that get a compostela.

Many people walk only a portion of the camino every year, often for a week at a time. They don't get captured in anyone's data. So there is no way to predict when and where there will be crowds.

The Sarria theory makes sense. It takes a day or two to get from anywhere Spain to Sarria and 5 or 6 days to walk from there to Santiago. That fits into workers who get a week of holidays from Saturday to following Sunday. So yes there are good odds that there will be less of a crowd if you arrive mid week.

There are Lies ... Damn Lies ... and Statistics.

The best way to avoid the crowds is walk in winter when no one else does. Or walk caminos less travelled.

 

[waveprof]

I think the summations of the OP are mostly accurate but I would say he is forgetting to take into account one thing about last year. May was the worst month weather wise in the Basque Country in a decade or more. They had to close the LOW road out of SJPdP for multiple days in late may (!). We went to SJPdP but ended up training and busing around to Pamplona. I met a lot of others who did the same. And the weather was horribly bad almost all of May. That might make some of these numbers skewed based on the single year.

 

[Thomas1962]

Interesting figures you collected. For a little while I worked as a volunteer in an albergue in SJPdP. The owner told me indeed that may is the most busy month, the numbers goes down a little in june and july and goes up in august.
Your numbers seem to affirm that.

 

[audge]

What about starting towards the end of May? Is that busier than starting in August?
I am planning a late May (22nd ish) start from Roncesvalles or Pamplona ending early July. I am now wondering if that will put me at the busiest time.
My other Option is Mid August start to the end of Sept.
It's great to see someone trying to figure it all out. Thanks.

 

[tyrrek]

I'm surprised there isn't a log kept online somewhere with the daily Compostelas. With those numbers on hand, it would be a lot easier to interpret the ebb and flow of pilgrims. The monthly figures are extremely useful, but daily stats would be amazing. I might be revealing a very sad side to my personality with statements like that!!! ;-)

Hi! I tried to work up an Excel spreadsheet showing how many pilgrims would be spread along the Camino at any given time based on the monthly arrival figures and it's a bit of a nightmare for a range of reasons. Daily figures would definitely help, but monthly figures can be approximately allocated across a month based on the overall trend (i.e in May more are likely to arrive towards the end of the month than the beginning). We can assume that people take a certain average number of days to complete it and count back to where they would have (approximately) been/started walking on a certain day.

One of the biggest challenges is that the CF does not exist in isolation - other Caminos join it at Puente la Reina, Sahagun etc including on the final stretch from Sarria. These Caminos may have an even stronger seasonal pattern due to weather conditions on mountains, availability of albergues etc. In some cases you have to guess at which point someone starting in a certain place joined it.

There are also alternative options in certain places e.g. between Sahagun and Mansilla. How many people take each route? That's not such a big problem unless you try to be too precise.

People walking in sections over several visits would almost exclusively have started beyond Sarria, but as far as I know there is no record of where these people tend to start or how many visits it take to complete their pilgrimage. I'd guess they'd be more likely than average to begin at wherever they perceive 'the start' to be, so would be well represented in the numbers coming from SJPP, Roncesvalles etc, This assumes they use the same credencial so Pilgrim Office counts them from their first visit and not just their last.

In the end I didn't quite give up on it, but kicked it into the long grass until we had the full 2013 figures to work from (including those who start in 2013 but arrive in 2014) so I may pick it up again.

Any figures coming from such an exercise would only be relative rather than absolute, so we could say that, for example, in June Carrion de los Condes has 120% of its annual average (that's just a made up figure, by the way!). As a result the numbers who don't collect a Compostela could be largely ignored unless we have some evidence that these pilgrims have any particular characteristics.

By the way, a hostal owner I spoke to somewhere in Navarra said September was their busiest month.

 

[Deleted member 3000]

The pilgrimage to Santiago in 2013
During 2013 215.880 pilgrims were received at the Pilgrims’ Office. The number of pilgrims in the past Holy Year, 2010, during the same period was 272.412. Of those pilgrims, 98.008 (45,40%) were women and 117.872 (54,60%) men. 188.191 (87,17%) pilgrims arrived on foot, 26.646 (12,34%) by Bicycle, 977 (0,45%) on horseback, and 66 (0,03%) pilgrims on wheelchair.

Pilgrims by gender
Men (54,60%)
Women (45,40%)
Pilgrims by medium
Foot (87,17%)
Bicycle (12,34%)
Horseback (0,45%)
Wheelchair (0,03%)
Pilgrims' Age:
61.114 pilgrims were younger than 30 years old (28,31%), 121.305 were between 30 and 60 years old (56,19%), and 33.461 were aged above 60 years old (15,50%).

Pilgrims' Motivation:
Religious: 86.291 (39,97%)
Religious and Cultural: 117.785 (54,56%)
Cultural: 11.804 (5,47%)

Foreign Pilgrims
Germany(14,73)%
Italy(14,20)%
Portugal(9,73)%
United States(9,21)%
France(7,55)%
Ireland(4,56)%
United Kingdom(3,82)%
Other countries

Starting Points:
Most of the pilgrims received in this period started their Way to Santiago in: Sarria: 52.063 (24,12%); S. Jean P. Port: 26.569 (12,31%); León: 10.739 (4,97%); Cebreiro: 10.722 (4,97%); Tui: 9.394 (4,35%); Oporto: 8.859 (4,10%); Ponferrada: 8.365 (3,87%); Roncesvalles: 8.268 (3,83%); Astorga: 6.053 (2,80%); Valença do Minho: 4.380 (2,03%); Pamplona: 4.321 (2,00%); Ferrol: 4.286 (1,99%); Oviedo - C.P.: 4.156 (1,93%); Burgos: 3.613 (1,67%); Irún: 3.389 (1,57%); Le Puy: 3.364 (1,56%); Ourense: 3.221 (1,49%); Vilafranca: 2.735 (1,27%); Sevilla: 2.292 (1,06%); Triacastela: 1.957 (0,91%); Francia - C.F.: 1.955 (0,91%); Lugo - C.P.: 1.704 (0,79%); Resto Portugal: 1.602 (0,74%); Resto C. León: 1.422 (0,66%); Resto Asturias: 1.261 (0,58%); Ribadeo: 1.251 (0,58%); Samos: 1.180 (0,55%); Lisboa: 1.067 (0,49%); Santander: 1.023 (0,47%); Ponte de Lima: 966 (0,45%); Bilbao: 918 (0,43%); Logroño: 891 (0,41%); Vilalba: 848 (0,39%); Oviedo: 807 (0,37%); Holanda: 723 (0,33%); Gijón: 718 (0,33%); Rates, S. Pedro: 635 (0,29%); Alemania: 617 (0,29%); Madrid - C.F.: 571 (0,26%); Salamanca: 567 (0,26%); Somport: 558 (0,26%); Barcelos: 544 (0,25%); Avilés: 505 (0,23%); Mondoñedo: 485 (0,22%); Porriño: 442 (0,20%); Sahagún: 428 (0,20%); Zamora: 422 (0,20%); San Sebastián: 401 (0,19%); Braga: 399 (0,18%); Bélgica: 386 (0,18%); Chaves-Portugal: 368 (0,17%); Resto País Vasco - C.N.: 362 (0,17%); Puebla de Sanabria: 335 (0,16%); Baamonde: 327 (0,15%); Resto Asturias - C.P.: 309 (0,14%); Resto Cantabria: 309 (0,14%); Lourdes: 295 (0,14%); Vega de Valcarce: 273 (0,13%); Suiza: 269 (0,12%); Muxia: 265 (0,12%); Gudiña: 237 (0,11%); Frómista: 229 (0,11%); Jaca: 219 (0,10%); Fonsagrada - C.P.: 215 (0,10%); Baiona: 202 (0,09%); Francia - C.N: 192 (0,09%); Carrión de los Condes: 192 (0,09%); Finisterra: 189 (0,09%); Hendaya: 187 (0,09%); Puente la Reina: 187 (0,09%); Cataluña - C.F.: 182 (0,08%); Guimaraes: 178 (0,08%); Grandas de Salime - C.P.: 177 (0,08%); Vigo: 176 (0,08%); Vezelay: 176 (0,08%); Granja de Moreruela: 175 (0,08%); R.Pais Vasco C.F.: 169 (0,08%); Lourenzá: 168 (0,08%); Viana do Castelo: 161 (0,07%); Sto. Domingo de la Calzada: 158 (0,07%); Hospital de Orbigo: 157 (0,07%); Rabanal del Camino: 152 (0,07%); Resto Andalucia: 152 (0,07%); Resto C. León - V.P.: 149 (0,07%); Arles: 145 (0,07%); Laza: 144 (0,07%); Mérida: 144 (0,07%); Valencia O.C.: 143 (0,07%); Navarra: 129 (0,06%); Cáceres: 129 (0,06%); Zaragoza: 129 (0,06%); Coimbra: 123 (0,06%); Montserrat: 122 (0,06%); Tineo - C.P.: 117 (0,05%); Abadin: 114 (0,05%); Madrid - V.P.: 112 (0,05%); Neda: 107 (0,05%); Fatima: 102 (0,05%); Canfranc: 97 (0,04%); Resto de Extremadura: 97 (0,04%); A Guarda: 94 (0,04%); Barcelona: 92 (0,04%); Verín: 87 (0,04%); Cadavo: 87 (0,04%); Molinaseca: 87 (0,04%); París: 84 (0,04%); Austria: 82 (0,04%); Povoa de Varzim: 75 (0,03%); Com. Valenciana - C.F.: 74 (0,03%); Estella: 73 (0,03%); Ponferrada. C.Inv.: 72 (0,03%); La Rioja: 68 (0,03%); Com. Valenciana - O.C.: 68 (0,03%); Resto Europa: 67 (0,03%); Granada: 67 (0,03%); Xunqueira de Ambia: 65 (0,03%); Cast. la Mancha - C.F.: 65 (0,03%); Viseu: 63 (0,03%); Fonfría: 53 (0,02%); Italia: 51 (0,02%); Monforte de Lemos: 49 (0,02%); Castilla la Mancha otros: 44 (0,02%); Salas: 43 (0,02%); Castilla La Mancha VP: 41 (0,02%); Malaga: 40 (0,02%); Esposende: 38 (0,02%); Allariz: 38 (0,02%); Rábade: 37 (0,02%); Huelva: 35 (0,02%); Roma: 30 (0,01%); Polonia: 29 (0,01%); Aveiro: 29 (0,01%); Castrojeriz: 28 (0,01%); XFonsagrada: 27 (0,01%); Valladolid: 26 (0,01%); Córdoba: 26 (0,01%); Benavente: 24 (0,01%); Nájera: 22 (0,01%); Cruz de Ferro: 22 (0,01%); Cataluña - O.C.: 22 (0,01%); Reino Unido C.F.: 20 (0,01%); Faro: 17 (0,01%); Grado: 16 (0,01%); La Mesa: 16 (0,01%); A Rúa: 15 (0,01%); Irlanda C.F.: 14 (0,01%); Badajoz: 13 (0,01%); Murcia: 13 (0,01%); Republica Checa: 13 (0,01%); Valcarlos: 8 (0,00%); San Juan de Ortega: 7 (0,00%); Hungría: 7 (0,00%); Reino Unido C.Ing: 6 (0,00%); Inglaterra C.F.: 6 (0,00%); Luxemburgo: 6 (0,00%); La Bañeza: 6 (0,00%); O Barco de Valdeorras: 5 (0,00%); Resto Galicia: 5 (0,00%); Dinamarca: 5 (0,00%); Andorra: 4 (0,00%); Chantada: 4 (0,00%); : 4 (0,00%); Resto Africa: 3 (0,00%); Eslovaquia: 3 (0,00%); Vincios: 3 (0,00%); Guntín: 3 (0,00%); Finlandia: 3 (0,00%); Rusia: 3 (0,00%); Paradela: 3 (0,00%); Quiroga: 3 (0,00%); Borres: 3 (0,00%); Egipto: 2 (0,00%); Sobrado dos Monxes: 2 (0,00%); Jerusalem: 2 (0,00%); Sobrado: 2 (0,00%); Betanzos: 2 (0,00%); Ventas de Narón: 2 (0,00%); Ortigueira: 2 (0,00%); Vegadeo: 2 (0,00%); Corredoiras: 2 (0,00%); Vilabade: 2 (0,00%); XSan Sebastian: 2 (0,00%); Gonzar: 1 (0,00%); Peñaseita: 1 (0,00%); Las Médulas: 1 (0,00%); Covelo: 1 (0,00%); Pardellas: 1 (0,00%); Leyre: 1 (0,00%); Cea: 1 (0,00%); Guitiriz: 1 (0,00%); Viveiro: 1 (0,00%); Irlanda C. Ing: 1 (0,00%); etc.

The Chosen Routes:
Most of the pilgrims chose Frances-Camino de: 151.761 (70,30%); Portugues-Camino: 29.550 (13,69%); Norte-Camino de: 13.393 (6,20%); Via de la Plata: 9.016 (4,18%); Primitivo-Camino: 6.854 (3,17%); Ingles-Camino: 4.404 (2,04%); Muxia-Finisterre: 454 (0,21%); Otros caminos: 444 (0,21%); : 4 (0,00%); etc.

 

[Thomas1962]

It's getting more and more interesting!
Although I know for sure it is a hell of a job, I would be very happy if you can make an excel sheet as far as possible, also if there might be mistakes in it. Me, and I'm sure many other people, can have a look on it and help in making it only better. The wisdom of the crowd!
If I do let all my fantasy go: it can be a start of in interactive map where you can see from any place on any camino the average amount of people passing by for each week, including the amount of beds available on that stretch . It would be wonderful.
But I must admit that this is not in my wisdom nor in my time schedule to make that happen

One of the biggest challenges is that the CF does not exist in isolation - other Caminos join it at Puente la Reina, Sahagun etc including on the final stretch from Sarria. These Caminos may have an even stronger seasonal pattern due to weather conditions on mountains, availability of albergues etc. In some cases you have to guess at which point someone starting in a certain place joined it.

In the statistics given by the office in SdC there are also the numbers of what camino people did and where the started. Is it difficult to sort that out?

People walking in sections over several visits would almost exclusively have started beyond Sarria, but as far as I know there is no record of where these people tend to start or how many visits it take to complete their pilgrimage. I'd guess they'd be more likely than average to begin at wherever they perceive 'the start' to be, so would be well represented in the numbers coming from SJPP, Roncesvalles etc, This assumes they use the same credencial so Pilgrim Office counts them from their first visit and not just their last.

I didn't walk like this before, but I suppose it does go like that. I'm sure JohnnyWalker has more info on that.

Any figures coming from such an exercise would only be relative rather than absolute, so we could say that, for example, in June Carrion de los Condes has 120% of its annual average (that's just a made up figure, by the way!). As a result the numbers who don't collect a Compostela could be largely ignored unless we have some evidence that these pilgrims have any particular characteristics.

It will never be 100% absolute right figures but gives a very good indication. Untill more info would be available we can assume that everywhere on the camino people walk without getting a compostella. But, for (nearly) sure all the people do walk with a credential. To get an indication for this amount of people it is possible to compare the amount of compostella's handed out in SJPdP and arrivals in SdC.

 

[tyrrek]

I'll try to make some progress on this if it is of interest. The point of what I was doing was really to show how different stages are busy at different times of year rather than get numbers of people as such. My method sometimes involved distributing 'fractions of pilgrims' across the month etc, and the thought of bunking down next to quarter of a pilgrim was slightly disconcerting.

Falcon's post shows the difficulty of dealing with the data as currently published, with a list of totals that then needs put into a spreadsheet and cleaned. There are spelling mistakes, duplicates, and (to pick on Carrion again) this can sometimes be written as 'Carrion de los Condes', 'Carrion dlC', 'Carrion' etc. All this makes what could be a simple series of lookups in Excel more difficult.

Happy to share it if/when it becomes shareable, and will try to build in some easy ways to change it if better info comes to light.

 

[Tia Valeria]

Quite a task Tyrrek. To add to your problem I would think you need to factor in also the credencials that are issued by the various Confraternities, Cathedrals etc. I doubt if there is ever going to be a way to truly check the numbers totally accurately as people start, leave join and complete their Caminos in differing places and often over more than one year (as has already been said). However have fun with the spread sheet

 

[Mark2012]

What about starting towards the end of May? Is that busier than starting in August?
I am planning a late May (22nd ish) start from Roncesvalles or Pamplona ending early July. I am now wondering if that will put me at the busiest time.
My other Option is Mid August start to the end of Sept.
It's great to see someone trying to figure it all out. Thanks.

If my past experience is anything to go by, you're planning to start at a very good time. The numbers are up year-on-year as a matter of course nowadays, but I started from St Jean on May 21, 2012, reached Santiago on June 22, and had little or no experience of crowding. The mood and general vibe changed after Sarria, but that's par for the course. Unless things have changed drastically since 2012, you should be fine starting in May this year. If I had the leeway, that's exactly when I would start!

 

[Senyor Pirotecnic]

How do the official stats above incorporate pilgrims who start on the Camino del Norte (Irun, Santander etc) but switch to the Camino Primitivo in Asturias? I have the feeling they are included in the overall figure for CN rather than CP as the totals for people starting in towns on the CP (principally Oviedo and Lugo) come to the total CP figure of 6,854, which therefore must be an underestimate of the numbers walking that route. It wouldn't take into account Camino del Salvador walkers who continue on either, would it?

 

[grayland]

The Pilgrim Office simply asks the starting point and not the route.
Thus...if you start at somewhere on the Camino del Norte it will reflect that. If you start on the CP that will be shown.

 

[JohnnieWalker]

The Pilgrim Office simply asks the starting point and not the route.
Thus...if you start at somewhere on the Camino del Norte it will reflect that. If you start on the CP that will be shown.

As I've said before the Pilgrims' Office stats are not exact and the Camino Primitivo example is a really good illustration of that. Sometimes staff will ask "what route is this" other times they work it out from the sellos - usually choosing what route dominates on the credencial.

 

[tyrrek]

Yep there is usually a separate entry for Ponferrada via C Invierno. More difficult to interpret are one such as this ' Com. Valenciana - C.F. con 1 (0,12%)'. I would take to be someone walking the Levante and joining the CF at Astorga rather than joining the VDLP, but as there's no mention of the Levante I guess they could have taken any route to the Frances and joined somewhere like Burgos. There are quite a few 'Resto Castilla y Leon' type entries which are difficult to place with any accuracy although in some cases the region in question points towards a particular route.

 

[tyrrek]

I now have a prototype pilgrim counter in Excel. Any idea how best to get it on here? I'm only allowed to post images.

 

[tyrrek]

Here's something for you to play with over the weekend. Following the discussion above and the publication of February stats I got a prototype Excel spreadsheet done. Please note the following caveats and if you're planning Camino dates, just take the information on it as indicative only.

The workbook uses the published monthly pilgrim statistics from the Pilgrim Office in Santiago de Compostela to estimate daily pilgrim flows across the Camino Frances over the course of a year. These modelled figures are experimental only, and are open to discussion and input from other pilgrims. Although based upon the published figures, these are NOT official Pilgrim Office statistics.

The model shows how different parts of the Camino Frances experience proportionately higher numbers of pilgrims at different times of year from others. It does not attempt to estimate actual numbers of pilgrims at any given time, but rather how many there are in certain locations as a percentage of the annual average, or as a percentage of all those on the route at the time. Caveats to be aware of, include:

1) The figures used to develop the model are the numbers of pilgrims who arrived in Santiago having started walking at a named town on the Camino Frances between St Jean Pied de Port and Santiago. It does not include pilgrims starting further back in France, pilgrims joining the Camino Frances from other routes, or those from unspecific starting points (e.g. 'the rest of Navarra').

2) The published Pilgrim Office figures showing pilgrims' starting points are only published on a monthly basis. This model converts them to daily figures using a series of averages and smoothing techniques. These techniques are quite basic, and do not take into account calendar events such as Christmas or Easter, that may cause significant fluctuations in numbers within periods shorter than a month.

3) These figures do not take into account changes in the facilities (e.g. albergues, beds etc) available to pilgrims. As such it is a limited indicator of how 'busy' the Camino is at any time.

4) The model assumes a fairly 'typical' Camino duration of 33 days. The towns used to represent the stopping points should be viewed as representative of a wider area.

5) The calculation sheets in the workbook are protected (except for the one containing the interactive charts), but are left visible for comment on the method used and suggestions for improvement or development. It should not be used in isolation.

Within these limitations I hope you find it interesting and a bit of fun! Let me know about any file problems etc. Buen Camino!

 

[Thomas1962]

This is so amazing Tyrrek! Although for sure the figures are indicative and experimental, it is wonderful and I can see it as a usefull tool for anyone who is planning their camino. for me anyway!. There must be an amazing amount of work in it. Thank you!! It also gives the answer to the initial question in this thread from Mark21012.

I can imagin that all the albergues on the camino are really interested in it, these statistics can help out to level the amount of pilgrims.
As a non statisticus, some of the figures are difficult to understand for me. But the first page and the 'average' makes it clear for me.

 

[whariwharangi]

Tyrrek, thats impressive.

BZ

 

[fraluchi]

[...] The workbook uses the published monthly pilgrim statistics from the Pilgrim Office in Santiago de Compostela to estimate daily pilgrim flows across the Camino Frances over the course of a year.[...]

Tyrrek, chapeau, you have put a lot of (technical) thinking in your worksheet. And even more working at it!
However....and here I am the bean counter...the basis of the study is as you write: from the Pilgrim Office in Santiago de Compostela.
We have no other data available.
Therefore we, old Camino foxes, know that we look at assumptions with questions.
Particularly the locals (Spaniards), do many partial stretches of the CF over various periods and arrive after the X-th weekend in Santiago to be recorded for their Compostela.
July and August are typical holidays in the country (or Europe for that matter). In fact, looking at the Compostelas issued during those months of any past year, the Spanish largely outnumber foreigners.
Where did they start this time ? Did they walk all the way to Santiago this time ? What kind of accommodation did they use during their walking ? (sports centers, schools, churches, private rooms, etc.)
Consequently, how many walkers along the path did not reach the Pilgrims' Office this time ?

The same, though to a lesser degree, may be true for "pilgrims" from abroad. They often booked their voyage, unaffected (yet) by weather conditions, to fit their available time. This is obviously different for French, Italian and German "pilgrims" (the British and Irish will forgive my selection by numbers ), as opposed to those who came from "further away" (Koreans, northern Americans, South Africans. Australians, to name a few nationalities.) The latter are those who generally do the longest "camino" walks,which makes sense for the costs involved.

So there are many questions open for predictions on "accommodation availability" along the Camino(s) atany one given time.
However, Tyrrek's "critical path analysis" shows reasonably acceptable "traffic" tendencies during a moment at a certain location.

Lesson to be learned ?
If you appear to find yourself in a crowd, wait a day or two after obtaining information on "pilgrims" volumes from albergues/hostals/hotels in your walking area.

 

[tyrrek]

Thanks Fraluchi. I've been looking forward to getting some input to see if we can refine this somewhat. I certainly take your point about the 'this times'. I'm sure a number of people effectively walk lots of different stages at the same time (i.e. the same time of year but over several years). This makes my life difficult. There is no adjustment for that, nor anything else for that matter - only smoothing so we don't see step changes each month. I don't know if anyone even has anecdotal evidence as to how many pilgrims walk this way, whether they start afresh with a new passport each time and therefore how they are recorded. To a limited extent people walking in stages will balance each other out. For someone recorded as starting from SJPP but who only started in Leon this time there may be someone who is just walking from SJPP to Leon this time who doesn't get recorded at all. You rightly point out that this will not match exactly especially at popular times.

I deliberately didn't go near the accommodation side of things and make that point in the notes. I don't want to be chased down and sued by distressed pilgrims. The other aspect of accommodation is a day-of-the-week effect, whereby a date that shows up as yellow/orange on my chart may in fact be bright red if it's a Saturday night in a popular starting point, for example. This level of detail would have to come from the credencial issuers rather than Santiago I guess, unless Santiago also records start dates.

Johnnie Walker is looking into getting data for periods within months (such as Easter, St James Day etc) to see if we can refine these periods a bit. As I say, the data are currently only smoothed so they assume a smooth curve from month to month, which clearly isn't what happens on the ground. This could be important, as even the smoothed data shows quite a narrow yellow band between the quiet periods the relatively hectic.

I'll keep you all posted if any improvements take place, and be happy to receive any further data that can be fed onto the back of my fag packet into the model.

 

[JohnnieWalker]

But Tyrrek will the model reach the WAGNER standard?

 

[tyrrek]

But Tyrrek will the model reach the WAGNER standard?

I don't know what that is, Johnnie. Is that a reference to 'Valkyries' - deciding how many pilgrims survive and how many are slain en route?

 

[fraluchi]

[...] I deliberately didn't go near the accommodation side of things and make that point in the notes. I don't want to be chased down and sued by distressed pilgrims.

There won't be any distressed pilgrims: they all have WiFi access and GPS, not forgetting the useful (most useful) information available on this super Forum. (bless Ivar)

We'll keep monitoring the figures and report on the salient happenings as we walk along the Camino:
Ultreya!

 

[JohnnieWalker]

The WAGNER standard seems to be used by most statisticians I have come across: Wild Ass Guess Not Easily Refuted

 

[tyrrek]

Ah, I guessed it would be an acronym. I was thinking 'Well Applied Guesswork Negates Exacting Research'. Having worked on the UKs unemployment figures for 10 years I never came across such methods. I didn't. No, really I didn't....

 

[Kanga]

You two have made my night.

 

[naplesdon]

What if the price of the Euro deters all of the north American from flying and spending time in Spain? Run those numbers, why not!

 

[JohnnieWalker]

What if the price of the Euro deters all of the north American from flying and spending time in Spain? Run those numbers, why not!

Last year 10125 Americans and 3373 Canadians (13,398)
registered at the Pilgrims' Office in Santiago out of a total of around 216,000.

The total number of pilgrims rises by some 12% each year.

Therefore you could conclude that apart from the poor North Americans who would miss out on the experience no one else would notice if they weren't there