Several commentors in this thread have touched on the actual reasons for alburgues and hostals being full. Taken together, these phenomena depict queue theory in practice. If the group of people behave according to their programming (the
Brierley guide) a certain practice will emerge. However, if the number of people seeking a resource (beds) reaches a critical mass, all available resources (beds) will simply be exhausted. Moreover, it does not matter how someone consumes the resource (advance booking via the web, phone call ahead, using a "rabbit" to jump ahead to reserve beds, or simply arriving first), when the resource is fully subscribed the "completo" signs go up. It is that simple.
Based on my background, reading and observations, here are several valid suggestions for countering these phenomena:
1. Most pilgrims start from one of the cities or traditional starting places on a Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, depending on how long they have to spend on their pilgrimage, or on this segment of their pilgrimage. This is especially true of European pilgrims who can fly short distances or take trains to get to a starting place easily. As a result, many of them tend to do the Camino (at least the Frances) in stages. In either event, this departure pattern this creates a "wave" of people heading down "the Way." The mix changes the farther you get down the
Camino Frances, as people enter the flow and wave pattern from different cities along the way: Logrono, Burgos, Leon, Astorga, Sarria, etc. Each time you arrive at one of these transportation nodes, from where "knots" of additional pilgrims will start or end their pilgrimage, you need to adjust your assessment of the coming several days. You need to think ahead to avoid being caught at the crest of that wave, competing for scare beds.
Your desired place is between the waves. This not only helps improve your chances of finding a place to sleep, but increases the chance of some private time while walking as there are a lot fewer people between the waves than at the top of the wave. So, if you are starting in Roncesvalles on a Saturday, you know that wave will hit Pamplona on Sunday evening. Plan accordingly.
Another example; if you arrive in Leon on a Friday, assume that there will be waves of people leaving Leon on Saturday, and Sunday, and a smaller wave on Monday. So, before reaching Leon, you might adjust your daily distances and stopping places so you arrive in Leon on a Sunday or a Monday.
You may need to stagger your departure times or even remain an additional day in an interesting place, or change your anticipated arrival times to avoid encountering these waves. I know, it means planning ahead, and I know this frazzles some folks; but it really only takes a few moments of brain time whilst walking. It is a "what-if" puzzle. If you look at it as a sort of game or mind puzzle it actually helps clear your mind of other less worthy thoughts.
2. Assuming that about half the pilgrims out there are carrying the 303 gm / 10.7 oz
Brierley guide (dang that too heavy - it needs to be an e-book - like yesterday), which was my observation, slightly more than half of the pilgrims out there will likely attempt staying at his recommended daily end points. As has been repeatedly stressed here and elsewhere, try to stay in the alburgue or hostal just before or just after the recommended daily stopping point in the
Brierley book.
I personally recommend walking the additional distance and pushing to places AFTER the recommended stop if possible and reasonable given known factors (health, weather, light, endurance). This should counter the practice of people getting up before the rooster to rush down the path to the next available bed. That is annoying but will only get worse as more people walk the Camino.
3. I respectfully disagree with folks who argue against people using technology to book ahead. Remember, everyone does their own Camino. It is not for me to judge how they choose to accomplish this. I do not fully understand their circumstances or their "back story." Besides, not everyone can live in a world dominated by chaos theory... ;-)
Moreover, as there is absolutely no way to prevent people from using a mobile or the web to make a down trail reservation, we might as well learn to live with it. Thus, I recommend, and have done, making advance reservations whenever it seems appropriate or necessary, based on your individual circumstances.
As has been recommended by many others, staying in a mix of alburgues and hostals may be the best idea. I actually stayed in a 4-star hotel in Burgos for three days because I had to arrange medical treatment for an urgent problem and had to find hotel desk personnel who spoke fluent English to do this. A 4-star hotel, while very expensive will do that every time. It all worked out well for me. But no two pilgrims have the same needs.
Finally (whew - yes I know I am long winded), we must consider that the
Camino Frances has a maximum carrying capacity. There is a complicated way of expressing this mathematically. However, the short version is simple. At some point the capacity of the existing
Camino Frances infrastructure to house pilgrims seeking beds will be saturated and over subscribed, despite reasonable adjustments.
I suggest, based on all the available data that, at certain times of the year this is already occurring. In the short term, suggestions like those above will help. However, long term, only additional beds, or metering the flow (logistically very difficult to impossible but technically possible) to only a certain number of persons per time period as is done is some very popular national parks here in the U.S. Personally, favor the more beds solution.
The technical solution is to provide a numbered - time limited Camino "visa" in the credential (pilgrim passport) of only those people who obtain same at a specifically designated location; i.e. the Pilgrim Office in St. Jean, or the comparable place that starting pilgrims must "touch base" at in Roncesvalles, Pamplona, Logrono, Leon, Burgos, Astorga, etc. Unfortunately, to administer such a program the process of granting these Camino visas either needs to be automated on the web, or limited to one location per city. The result is that to obtain a bed, you would have to present four things when you ask for a bed or room: your national ID or passport, a credential containing the Camino Visa (trail license), your person, and the necessary fee. I do not see this ever happening, but it IS doable.
But, given the state of the Spanish economy I doubt the nation, region, or provinces will invest the funds needed to expand the alburgue system. Private investment, even on a non-profit basis, would seem an appropriate solution. On paper it is viable. However, the high unemployment rate and local permitting processes for foreign investment, even in a worthwhile tourist generating venture such as this, is daunting to say the least. I have thought of it many times since doing my first Camino this year. The business model certainly works. It is the political model that is problematic.
There are no best solutions. There are only optimal solutions given what you know. Knowledge is power - or at least enhanced control.
Buen Camino!
Tom (from Virginia)
