The Xunta works with these projected figures in their Strategic Plan for the Xacobeo 2021:
View attachment 65097
That, obviously, relates only to Galicia. What I see there, is roughly a 10% increase year on year plus an extra dollop in 2021 which is actually lower than the plus in previous Holy Years. I think it's plausible that the Holy Year 2021 will have a lower impact this time (religious element relatively less important). What do you see,
@C clearly?
Source:
https://ficheiros-web.xunta.gal/transparencia/plans/culturaeturismo/plan_xacobeo_21_cas.pdf, page 92.
I have not seen these official numbers before. Thank you very much for posting them, along with the source.
My personal estimate (I developed the 650k number) is based on the year-to-year growth rate over the past 15 years. I extrapolated this in a linear method, then applied the anomalous spike that has occurred in past Holy Years. That is where the 650k number comes from. It is the Holy Year spike that drives the final number to an insane level. I freely admit that my methodology could be flawed.
But, whether the eventual number is 500k or 600k, or more, could we at least all agree that it is better to plan and develop processes for a 'worst case' scenario, rather than get caught overwhelmed and short?
I have no problem with the Xacobeo being more correct than me. After all, they have direct access to the raw numbers. Even if their number the official ones, these are just estimates and projections.
The bottom line is that 2021 is going to be relatively, insanely busier than 2018, 2019, or 2020.
Another thing to consider is that pilgrims are only part of the workload at the Pilgrim Office. There are also hundreds of thousands, or potentially millions, of tourists spread over the entire year, who did not walk to Santiago.
Presently, we are seeing groups being bussed in from all over Europe, as well as from huge cruise liners that dock at Vigo. Most of us have seen the busload-sized groups of tourists on tours, gawking at the pilgrims.
For those of you who do not know, there are non-pilgrim certificates issued at the Pilgrim Office to pilgrims who travel by any means to venerate the relics in the Cathedral, or just make a visit to the Cathedral. The can arrive in town via any means of locomotion.
Also, it is important to point out for Catholics who might seek the Plenary Indulgence offered by the Church during a Holy Year, that NO PILGRIMAGE IS REQUIRED, per se. What garners the Plenary Indulgence is coming to the Cathedral, venerating the Apostle's relics, and performing certain specified Roman Catholic sacramental actions within a set time. Then, and this is entirely spiritual, requiring NO PAPER CERTIFICATES, the spiritual grace is conferred.
Given this, I intend to try to drive home the point that the Pilgrim Office must get out of the business of issuing anything to anyone who did not walk, bike, etc. to Santiago. I will strongly encourage PIlgrim Office management to move issuance of visitor and tourist certificates to another location, at least through the end of 2020.
But I can only try...