Dealing with the increasing popularity, for whatever reason, of the Camino is just a fact of life. I recommend that people NOT put off doing a Camino. If the past is prologue, next year, and the following, will only be busier...
So, if you regard this as a one-off experience, get thee on Camino! On the other hand, if, like some of us, this is your avocation, hobby, or second-life, you probably should learn to develop management skills to avoid getting caught in the coming crush.
This is why I prefer to walk in April and May. I like to be off the Camino before the crowds of summer present themselves. I have my reasons, most of them are personal preference issues. But the crowding issue is one I will share here. It usually means more rain, and snow at elevations over 700 m, but I do love the blooming flowers and new baby farm animals...
As "peregrina2000" correctly points out, the years with a special designation like a Holy Year or Jubilee Year, produce continued increases even afterwards.
The most effective counter to this challenge is two part, in my experience:
1. Plan to leave population centers that other pilgrims might start from, on a Monday through Thursday (generally0. Avoid departing from Friday morning through Sunday morning.
The reason for this is metaphorically like surfing. You loll about on your surfboard, beyond the breakers, waiting for the right wave to approach. When the right wave comes, you go. If you proceed at another interval, your ride will not be as good, and you will more likely "wipe out."
On the Camino, it means timing your departure so the much larger tranche of newly starting pilgrims are a day or more in front or behind you. You WANT to be in the trough of the wave (low swell between successive wave sets) in this situation.
So, once you get to Pamplona, Logrono, Burgos, Leon, O'Cebreiro, Astorga, or Sarria, stay an extra night or two if it means you can depart after or just before the next large wave of starting pilgrims begin. Besides, there is enough to do and see at these locations to occupy your time positively. I named these places as they have effective train and bus connections from all over Spain. Pamplona and Leon are also fairly popular airports for Europeans to fly into, to start from the nearby city.
The reason for this pattern is simple and observable. Overall, 50% (mas o menas) of all pilgrims are Spanish. If you add to this the tranche that are continental-resident Europeans who can ride an airplane and get to the starting point in less than one day, you have upwards of 80 % of all pilgrims, strictly numerically and according to the pilgrim office statistics.
These folks can manage their holiday time so they can devote a week or more on Camino, in general. They will typically take a train or bus to their starting point at the end of a workweek. This travel to the "head of the trail" might be on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday. Consider if the weekend also involves a formal holiday or "bridge day" as Europeans call taking one extra day to stretch a weekend or a week's holiday. This develops a pattern where the number of pilgrims departing one of the named transportation nodes every weekend is very large.
For example, most Europeans have Good Friday and Easter Monday off work as a formal holiday. Parenthetically, this perplexes me as most all of Europe is now secular, but I digress... Anyway, this year, the Easter Sunday weekend is for most Europeans, a four-day weekend. So, they might travel to the starting point Wednesday or Thursday evening after work, planning to start the next morning. So, according to my suggested model, you would want to be clear of the starting points by Holy Thursday morning, so "the mob" is behind you.
Metaphorically, this pattern is like the proverbial "pig in a python." It looks, from a bird's eye view, as a mob of pilgrims all processing down the Camino, fully using every bed, cafe chair and walking trail along the way. The "mob" has leading and tailing elements, and it spreads out during the day, becoming an ovoid distribution pattern, like the shape of one's eyes. The daily pattern contracts and compresses at albergues and hostals at the end of each walking day. In any event, this sort of crowding is not conducive to introspection, meditation, reflection or prayer.
I suggest that you want to try to avoid most of this. Doing so, you will better be able to obtain a bed for the night. You will also enjoy YOUR Camino more, at least IMHO.
2. Use the various online reservation sites like www.booking.com to advance-reserve private albergues, hostals, or hotels at your planned nightly stopping places.
If you stay exclusively at albergues, you walk your distance and take your chances. This is usually fine in the off-season, or hip-seasons (April, October, etc.). But, once you hit late May and June, the albergues will increasingly be filled with bargain hunters and student types. Also, starting in May, private bed space starts getting reserved by accompanied tour groups, motor coach tours, escorted student and church groups and other groups of more than "onesies and twosomes." As a single pilgrim, you will be competing for more scarce bed space in private accommodation.
If you possibly can, I recommend that you trade up for private albergues or hostals. Share a room with another pilgrim you have grown accustomed to and trust. In my experience, having a private bathroom and a door that locks on Camino are real luxuries!
Generally, the more you are willing to pay the better the chance of reserving a bed for the evening. If you cannot devote the resources, you need to plan better, and in advance. YES, this does reduce some of the spontaneity of the Camino. But such is the price of "success."
If you reserve ahead of time, you can relax knowing that you have a place to stay. In my experience, this makes for more pleasant days, as there is no "bed race."
I hope this helps.
