Search over 55.000 Camino Questions

A donation to the forum removes ads for you, and supports Ivar in his work running it

Advertisement

COVID Maths and Covid 19

Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
The Ideas section of the April 12, 2020 Boston Globe has an article (possibly published earlier in the week) about herd immunity studies done at Harvard University. There are graphs and links. The scary part for me was that the longer the period of social distancing the more deaths overall.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/10/opinion/its-possible-flatten-curve-too-long/

The webpage pops up with a subscription request but the close button worked.
Hi Rick,
Excellent article
Makes sense, but then so many articles do
This, initially was the Uk approach before the U turn of lockdown

I'm not a virologist so what do I know?
This is a waiting game now unfortunately
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
A politician with a science background made some waves in the twittersphere recently when explaining things in this way:

A key variable the government is looking at is the so-called reproduction factor of the virus — R0, the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.
That factor currently stands at about 1 [in that country] meaning that one person gets infected by every newly infected person. If that factor rose even to 1.1, the country's health care system would reach capacity by October.
If it were allowed to rise to 1.2 — so out of five infected people one infects not one but two additional people — that limit is reached by July.
With 1.3, the limit of their health care system would be reached by June.
“So you can see how small our leeway is,” the politician said, “the entire development rests on having a number of infections that we can keep track of and trace.”
This is a translation that I saw in a newspaper. The writer/editor had made a better job of it than the writer/editor of another newspaper article I had seen earlier. I still needed the back of an old envelope to get it. 1.2 means that:
  • 1 person infects 1.2 persons on average; or:
  • 5 persons infect 6 persons on average; or:
  • out of every 5 infected persons, 4 of them infect only 1 other person each and the other 1 infects 2 persons. On average.
0.1 is a tenth. Even a tenth of something can matter tremendously. I remember another politician who demonstrated with his finger and his thumb just how tiny one tenth of a centrigrade Celsius is. Can such a small change possibly have huge consequences for the climate? You, the voter, are the judge. Everywhere.
 
Last edited:

Bad Pilgrim

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Far too many...
Hi Rick,
Excellent article
Makes sense, but then so many articles do
This, initially was the Uk approach before the U turn of lockdown

I'm not a virologist so what do I know?
This is a waiting game now unfortunately
I can't open the article, but it seems to be the same strategy as my country still has (Sweden).

We have restrictions, but not nearly as much as other countries. Briefly; there is no lock-down, no quarantine!

The number of deaths (the "curve") has been flattening out a bit in Sweden since Easter, so we might be heading in the right direction.

But yesterday the news said that authorities would do a re-count of the former death toll with new criteria. So the official numbers may go up, or down, depending on the new "way of counting".

/BP
 
Last edited:

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
London Spectator :


"A team from Stanford university and other US universities recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County via Facebook adverts and produced a sample of 3000 representatives of the county as a whole. They were then invited for blood tests to detect the presence of antibodies to the virus. The result was positive in 1.5 per cent of cases. Adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity the results suggest that 2.8 per cent of people in the county had already had the virus. That might not seem many, but at the time of the study – on 4th and 5th April – only 1,094 people in the county were recorded as having the virus. The study suggests the real figure is between 48,000 and 81,000. As the put it, "50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases."

Like many studies which have been pre-published in order to aid understanding of the Covid-19 pandemic, the paper produced by the Stanford-led team has not yet been peer-reviewed. Moreover, it took place in a part of California where very few people have so far tested positive with the virus. It would be interesting to see the experiment repeated in New York City, where recorded infections are far higher.

But it is one more piece in a jigsaw which is slowly building up a picture of a virus which may be far more prevalent – and possibly far less deadly – than was at first believed. As has been argued here before, knowing the general level of infection in the population is absolutely crucial because this informs both the virulence and the mortality rate of the infection. If only a small percentage of the population have had the virus, then it might be worth continuing with lockdown policies. But if SARS-Cov-2 is already endemic in the population there is nothing we can do to stop it but no great reason to try to stop it, either: it has already ripped its way through the population with only a small proportion showing any symptoms.

Last week, I reported a similar study from the town of Gangelt in north-western Germany where 15 per cent of the population were found to have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Were that to be reflected in the UK population, it would still mean we were a long way short of the 60 per cent infection rate which the government’s scientific advisers originally considered necessary for ‘herd immunity’ of the population. But it would mean we were well on the way
."
 

martin1ws

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Somport to Finisterre Jul-Aug 2018; Munich to Lindau (Germany) Sep 2020
...
Last week, I reported a similar study from the town of Gangelt in north-western Germany where 15 per cent of the population were found to have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. ...
The study in Gangelt / Heinsberg was in one of the towns in Germany that had most of the SARS-CoV-2 cases per 100.000 citizens. So the average rate of infection in Germany should be (far?) below these 15 percent.
 

Raggy

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
2017, 2018, 2019
Why social distancing must continue to be extreme if we hope to halt Covid-19 spread (article)

"If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.'

 

Raggy

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
2017, 2018, 2019
I have a request - Can someone help me to find a math-related web page that was posted to in this forum some weeks ago? I think it was in March.

The web page that I'm thinking of presented some mathematical models for epidemics in which users could adjust variables. For instance, one model allowed users to observe the impact on epidemic growth of different levels of social distancing. (i.e. What impact does it have on the spread of the virus if a population reduces interactions by 70% vs. 90%).

I'm not thinking of The Washington Post article that runs simulations as you read it and presents a set of graphs at the end. I think that the web page that I'm trying to find was put together by an individual. It lacks the fancy production values of the WP but gives users the ability to input their own variables.

I haven't succeeded with the forum search function and I haven't been able to find it by combing through related threads. I wonder if anyone here remembers the web page that I'm talking about? (Perhaps one of you posted it here).


EDIT - Never mind, I've found the site I was looking for
 
Last edited:

Kanga

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Francés x 5, Le Puy x 2, Arles, Tours, Norte, Madrid, Via de la Plata, Portuguese, Primitivo
The Stamford study has been poorly reviewed here.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
In one of the press conferences that play in a corner of my screen they mentioned euroMomo today. This is a website that monitors excess mortality for public health action. It records in which European countries more people die during the week than expected, "all-cause mortality levels in up to 24 European countries or regions of countries". This is how flu mortality or mortality during heat waves is measured. It reflects current levels of mortality in these countries or regions.

Week 14, 2020, very high: Spain, France, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, UK with the exception of Northern Ireland, Sweden.
Week 15, 2020, very high: Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, England

See
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
They themselves don't really know why the number is currently so low but have a number of ideas - the current age profile of those infected is quite different in Germany than in Italy for example - patients are noticeably younger on average - while the percentages of old and very old people in the population are quite similar in Germany and Italy. Perhaps because many German Covid-19 patients had come back from skiing holidays initially and got infected there.
The numbers of infected persons, persons in intensive care and persons who died have gone up there, too, since I posted this, but the question of the many "why"s is still being discussed. Initially, the profile of those who got infected/severely sick was different from surrounding countries because they were much younger. Also, focal points of the disease lie in certain regions in Bavaria, while numbers are comparatively low in the former East Germany for example. So, for the most severely affected areas in Bavaria, these are discussed as reasons:
  • People returning from skiing holidays in Austria and Northern Italy; it's not the skiing that was responsible for spreading the virus, it was what is called après-ski, drinking and merry-making in the bars in the evenings.
  • Carnival; not so much floats and processions but the habit of rally type gatherings in the run up to the carnival week with drinking, singing and performances on stage that are difficult for me to describe; amateur stand-up comedy with political satire mixed in, perhaps. A Bavarian import from the Rhine region. There is next to no carnival in the former East.
  • Strong beer. In March, during lent, there are numerous strong beer festivals in some parts of Bavaria. You guessed it: drinking, singing and often some kind of amateur stand-up comedian with a speech with strong political satire mixed into it.
The beer is called strong beer not because of the higher alcohol content but because of the higher starch content. The beer is called "liquid bread" for this reason, for its nourishing qualities. It was originally brewed by monks in the Middle Ages to allow to nourish themselves while fasting during lent. Hence nowadays strong beer festivals in March. Brewing strong beer was once one of the monks' privileges. Nowadays anyone can brew it and drink it.

I tried to construct a link to pilgrimage - monks, Middle Ages, nourishment - but I gave up. It would have been too artificial and convoluted. 🙃
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Here is an interesting chart for Belgium. I leave it to the viewer to draw conclusions. Labels are in English. Every country must have similar charts so please don't get fixated on the country. They show the so-called surmortality (there may be a different name in English). The yellow graph shows the number of daily deaths recorded, all causes and all ages. The grey horizontal line is the number of daily deaths predicted on the basis of previous years. You can see that it sinks a little as we leave the winter months, from about 325 to 300 deaths per day. ILI means influenza like infections. The start of the Covid-19 epidemic is marked by a black bar on 1 March 2020. Covid-19 is not the flu, that's for certain.
Surmortality.jpg

Edited to add: surmortality: = excess deaths
 
Last edited:

mmmmartin

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Santander-SdC bici '14
Plata bici '17
1/2 Plata bici '18
Frances a pie '18
(Porto a pie '19)
Screenshot_20200423-163818_Chrome.jpg
This is the picture for excess deaths across Europe. This isn't the flu.
 

Spurselona

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances (2020)?
View attachment 73669
This is the picture for excess deaths across Europe. This isn't the flu.
It certainly isn't the flu. I saw Financial Times estimating number of Covid-19 deaths to be 60% higher than the reported numbers.
However there seems to be huge differences from country to country.
In Norway it looks like the relatively low number of covid-19 deaths in combination with lockdown measures has lead to a decrease in overall mortality. At least temporarily.
If you look at the table below you'll find the number of deaths in the first 15 weeks of 2020 is down almost 10% compared to the average of the last 10 years and comfortably under any other year in the table.
The trend is clear even before the outbreak of corona, so the main reason seems to be that the flu is not that hard this year (flu is the main reason for overmortality in the winter months), but the lockdown measures seems to have increased the trend even more..
Obviously lockdown measures have reduced the number of flu death numbers (from an already low level), but could it be that the lockdown even reduces other causes of death like heart attacks, strokes, overdose etc?
Have to say though that In the last 2 weeks of the table the differences are so staggering I have the feeling not all deaths have been included yet since a 40% drop (for week 15) in mortality is so huge that it just doesn't make sense...

Mortality numbers in Norway per week 2020:
deaths per week norway.jpg
The table are from Norway's Sentral Statistics Bureau (ssb.no)
Translation for none scandinavians: "Uke" = week, "Gjennomsnitt" = Average, "Flere/færre" = More/Less.
A bit counter intuivly overmortality in this table comes out with a minus in front (only occurs in week 2).

Anyone know of any other countries with undermortality in 2020 compared to a normal year?
I could see it apply for Denmark and Finland in the northern hemisphere and possibly NZ and Australia down south. Singapore seems a likely candidate too.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Some graphs to illustrate again just how different it is this time from all other times. It doesn't matter that this is for England & Wales, don't focus on geography and absolute numbers. Just look at the increase in the spring of 2020. This is all deaths per week, not Covid-19 deaths, and how much higher the graphs go than in winter months.

Weekly deaths E and W 2020.jpg
 

goodlime

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
Planning a Camino for this year (2019). Likely the Camino Frances as my first.
I know it can be very hard to maintain an objective outlook during times of extreme stress, especially when compounded by factors such as wholesale fear being peddled by the media 24/7. I'm not a professional scientist or medical professional, but I am a highly intelligent software engineer, and the analysis and presentation of data is my business.

I came to this post looking for info on whether some form of Camino would be viable this year. Instead I found post after post spreading fear. Not garnered from research of data, nor actual knowledge, but widespread parroting of propaganda broadcast to the masses in the form of 'programming'.

I'm not going to cite data, my own findings or opinions. But I will leave you with a quick exercise you can complete in 5 minutes:

1. Look up the regular death rate (morbidity rate) for your country (is used the U.S. as my example and got the CDC numbers for 2018)
2. Look up the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in your country
3. Look up the date of the first death from COVID-19 in your country
4. Use a calculator to figure out the number of people who would have died in the period from the date of first death until now, under normal circumstances (the U.S. example is almost exactly 12 weeks to today... ([total deaths per year] ÷ 52) x [weeks since first case])
5. Compare your calculation the number you got in Step 2
6. Think about it for at least 1 minute

Perspective is a wonderful thing. I'm really not trying to downplay the potential nastiness of this virus. For the immunocompromised and people with co-factors putting them in a vulnerable population, the flu is also particularly nasty and potentially life threatening. Just trying to offer some perspective while everyone is seemingly consumed by fear and not thinking straight.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I came to this post looking for info on whether some form of Camino would be viable this year. Instead I found post after post spreading fear. Not garnered from research of data, nor actual knowledge, but widespread parroting of propaganda broadcast to the masses in the form of 'programming'.
That is completely understandable ; however, political decisions are motivated by many other factors than just factual analyses.

As for whether Caminos will become viable later this year, that's anyone's guess, though my own guess would be yes, up to an extent.

It may very well be that travel into Spain will become possible before the albergues will be authorised to reopen ; so it's not unlikely IMO that the earliest pilgrims later this year will be those able and willing to sleep outside, maybe with a tent.
 

CWBuff

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
in Planning stage: Frances (SJPdP --> SdC) & Finisterre "2021" ... (GOD WILLING!)
@goodlime
While your thoughts and perspective may be quite sound and even the suggestion that "everyone is seemingly consumed by fear and not thinking straight" it is of little use when faced with the fact that until the applicable powers-to-be of the countries-in-question (to shorten the list - France, Portugal & Spain specifically) will allow travelling and with that (as many have pointed out in various threads) the actual Camino Infrastructure (albergues, restaurants etc) can reasonably function.

We can know numbers and fear not the fear itself.... and The Camino remains closed. Surely nobody will suggest to start defying orders.... (if anything please look for a post where a member was a bit gung-ho way in the beginning of the pandemic, started the walk, walked a little...and promptly got infected)

We all just have to wait, however sad it makes us....

✌ ☮
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I know it can be very hard to maintain an objective outlook during times of extreme stress, especially when compounded by factors such as wholesale fear being peddled by the media 24/7. I'm not a professional scientist or medical professional, but I am a highly intelligent software engineer, and the analysis and presentation of data is my business.

I came to this post looking for info on whether some form of Camino would be viable this year. Instead I found post after post spreading fear. Not garnered from research of data, nor actual knowledge, but widespread parroting of propaganda broadcast to the masses in the form of 'programming'.

[...] Just trying to offer some perspective while everyone is seemingly consumed by fear and not thinking straight.
Welcome to the forum, @goodlime. Your comment - I see it is the first comment you made on this forum and I don't know how many forum posts you had read before you made it - caused me to react because it is so different from my own impression.

Admittedly, my own impression is no doubt a subjective impression and not an objective impression 😇.

I am an avid consumer of the media's offers. I found excellent information there. I would never come to this forum to look for information "whether some form of Camino would be viable this year". There is a variety of opinions being expressed here but they are opinions of, let's be clear about it and it includes me, of people without an in-depth knowledge about the situation in Spain and that includes people who have walked numerous caminos over the years. Most of what we know is from ... the media and covers a wide range of views and facts and interpretation of facts and data. More often than not our knowledge does not even come from original media sources, let alone primary sources, as it's in Spanish or French or another "foreign" language, but from secondary news sources or sources even further removed from the origin.

And both the 24/7 media, in particular the print media that I read online, and posters on the forum here have provided links to original data sources of a wide variety, including I think what you propose in your 6 steps advice - you don't even have to use your calculator, these data are readily available in processed form. Admittedly, I only looked at European data and can't say anything about such data sources for the huge rest of the world but there are no caminos there that I would want to walk, so of limited interest to me. And I have to add that I usually think about this stuff for more than just 1 minute ...

Just saying, as they say. ☺
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
4. Use a calculator to figure out the number of people who would have died in the period from the date of first death until now, under normal circumstances (the U.S. example is almost exactly 12 weeks to today... ([total deaths per year] ÷ 52) x [weeks since first case])
BTW, if I understand correctly what you advise, there is a better approach. However, this should go into a different forum thread that touches on this topic.

As a rule, the relevant health statistics offices in the various countries provide mortality data by week or by day as these data vary throughout the seasons in a statistically significant way so that's more accurate and makes more sense than dividing yearly numbers by 52. The search terms you may want to use are excess deaths, exceso de mortalidad, surmortalité, Übersterblichkeit etc etc. It's a lot in our news media lately as the data for March 2020 are now available and have been published by the various national or regional statistical offices throughout Europe, and the national data for April will become available during May.

BTW, I have just looked at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm. Look at the equivalent for Spain! You can find this for Spain on the whole and for Madrid, for Castilla y Leon and for Navarra, the areas where the majority of pilgrims travel through or walk through.
 
Last edited:

natefaith

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Sarria-Santiago (2009)
León-Ponferrada (2014)
Camino Inglés (2017)
BTW, if I understand correctly what you advise, there is a better approach. However, this should go into a different forum thread that touches on this topic.

As a rule, the relevant health statistics offices in the various countries provide mortality data by week or by day as these data vary throughout the seasons in a statistically significant way so that's more accurate and makes more sense than dividing yearly numbers by 52. The search terms you may want to use are excess deaths, exceso de mortalidad, surmortalité, Übersterblichkeit etc etc. It's a lot in our news media lately as the data for March 2020 are now available and have been published by the various national or regional statistical offices throughout Europe, and the national data for April will become available during May.

BTW, I have just looked at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm. Look at the equivalent for Spain! You can find this for Spain on the whole and for Madrid, for Castilla y Leon and for Navarra, the areas where the majority of pilgrims travel through or walk through.
30,000+ excess deaths in Spain from March 17 to April 28. :(
So much grief and loss all around the world, but that number, for just one country, brings it home a bit more.
 

peregrina2000

Moderator
Staff member
I know it can be very hard to maintain an objective outlook during times of extreme stress, especially when compounded by factors such as wholesale fear being peddled by the media 24/7. I'm not a professional scientist or medical professional, but I am a highly intelligent software engineer, and the analysis and presentation of data is my business.

I came to this post looking for info on whether some form of Camino would be viable this year. Instead I found post after post spreading fear. Not garnered from research of data, nor actual knowledge, but widespread parroting of propaganda broadcast to the masses in the form of 'programming'.

I'm not going to cite data, my own findings or opinions. But I will leave you with a quick exercise you can complete in 5 minutes:

1. Look up the regular death rate (morbidity rate) for your country (is used the U.S. as my example and got the CDC numbers for 2018)
2. Look up the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in your country
3. Look up the date of the first death from COVID-19 in your country
4. Use a calculator to figure out the number of people who would have died in the period from the date of first death until now, under normal circumstances (the U.S. example is almost exactly 12 weeks to today... ([total deaths per year] ÷ 52) x [weeks since first case])
5. Compare your calculation the number you got in Step 2
6. Think about it for at least 1 minute

Perspective is a wonderful thing. I'm really not trying to downplay the potential nastiness of this virus. For the immunocompromised and people with co-factors putting them in a vulnerable population, the flu is also particularly nasty and potentially life threatening. Just trying to offer some perspective while everyone is seemingly consumed by fear and not thinking straight.
I’m not exactly sure, but I can guess, what your point is. Seems similar to the assertion that covid is not much more deadly than flu. That claim has been debunked as “ham-headed” by an analysis of the comparisons that are being made. I encourage anyone who has heard or has thought that this is just like the flu to read this article in the Washington Post.


Bottom line — total number of confirmed flu deaths in the US in 2018-19 was 7172. The more widely quoted figures that say that the flu kills between 25,000 and 50,000 people annually in the US are estimates based on mathematical models assuming that there has been vast underreporting. Comparing 50,000 estimated flu deaths to 63,000 confirmed covid deaths is meaningless.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
30,000+ excess deaths in Spain from March 17 to April 28. :( So much grief and loss all around the world, but that number, for just one country, brings it home a bit more.
I just cannot bring myself to "like" your comment but it is good that you posted it. Although I have now lived under very similar restrictive conditions as you in Spain, and this for now over SEVEN weeks, I have moments where I am still flabbergasted by what is happening and has happened. And since this is the "figures" thread, here is a comment I just read in the Guardian. Another facet for trying to understand. Quote:

Alasdair Rae, a professor of urban studies and planning at the University of Sheffield, noted in 2018 [<- worth having a look at the original article, it is not Covid-19 related] that Spain’s population density of 93 people per square kilometer is misleading, since only about 13 percent of the country’s territory is actually lived in.
IOW, there are many densely populated areas in Spain, and a high population density makes it more difficult to control an outbreak. And a quote from the original article about population density in Europe and particular in Spain:

But only 13 percent of [the Spanish territory] are lived in. This means that the “lived density” for Spain is in fact 737 people per square kilometer, rather than 93. So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together. In fact, Spain could claim to be the most densely populated major European country by this measure, despite its appearance on the map. This also helps explain why Spain has the most densely populated square kilometer in Europe; more than 53,000 people inhabit a single square kilometer area in Barcelona.

Not what you would think of Spain when you walk on your camino from Roncesvalles to Santiago.
 
Last edited:

Galloglaigh

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Lycra tribe.
CF (2017/8), VF (2018/9), Old Way (2020), VFnS (2020), CP (rebooked) (2021), VdT (ToDo)
Do you mean urban population density rather than average population density.

These are 2006 figures but there will be later one. Columns 6 and 7 give comparators to US and to Hong Kong. So if you look at actual living space in a country (Japan/Hong Kong) are good examples, you can see the sorts of risk there are

 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Do you mean urban population density rather than average population density.
Have a look at the article: https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/

I found it worth mentioning because it provides a different view of Spain than the one we usually have here in Europe. We know that Northern Italy is densely populated. We know that the Benelux countries are densely populated. Many are aware of the corridor that reaches from London to Milan and includes the densely populated areas around Paris and in West Germany. It is an economic powerhouse that is described in many articles for various reasons, I even think that a name has been coined for it. But Spain? All of Spain? Densely populated?
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Many are aware of the corridor that reaches from London to Milan and includes the densely populated areas around Paris and in West Germany. It is an economic powerhouse that is described in many articles for various reasons, I even think that a name has been coined for it.
It's mentioned in the article although I think there is another name. Quote:

This is the so-called “blue banana,” or dorsale européenne (European backbone), identified by French geographer Roger Brunet in 1989, and it is home to more than 110 million people.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
hmmm, interesting points.

Spain does still have quite a few areas of wilderness and semi-wilderness, though the Francès does not go through very much of it.



The country is clearly not as densely urbanised, generally, than England or Northern France or the Po Valley & Adriatic Coast in Italy, but you can clearly see on this map that there are clusters of dense population locally.

If you compare with France, Spain has many inland areas of wilderness or semi-wilderness, whereas there are few in France, and these are mostly Alpine or Pyrenean. Whereas by contrast, great areas of France are suburban, semi-rural, and rural.
 

martin1ws

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Somport to Finisterre Jul-Aug 2018; Munich to Lindau (Germany) Sep 2020
The final results of the "Heinsberg-study" are here (pre-results were published some days ago; Heinsberg is one of the "hotspots" with the most cases in Germany):
(German webpage):
(English document):
The infection fatality rate (IFR) was rather low: 0.36%[0.29%; 0.45%] (because there are rather many infected people who were not tested and who did not know about their corona illness and so they are not in the normal statistic of infected people)
The secondary infection risk for study participants living in the samehousehold increased from 15.5% to 43.6%, to 35.5% and to 18.3%for households with two, three or four peoplerespectively(p<0.001) (so it is far below 100%... so you do not have to get corona if one of your family members in your household has corona).

Edit: and from the abstract / conclusions: The unexpectedly low secondary infection risk among persons living in the same household has important implications for measures installed to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic.
(only my interpretation / hope: this last point could be especially important. Hopefully this means that you can prevent many of the corona infections with hygiene measures that are available even in a normal household... and so maybe are available in normal pilgrim life as well)
 
Last edited:

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Having been told off rather kindly, and yet effectively --

The graph of active cases follows a bell curve. (and the related curves of daily deaths, daily new cases, etc)

The graph of total cases follows a growth curve.
 

calmeg

Member
A key variable the government is looking at is the so-called reproduction factor of the virus — R0, the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.
Here is a nice figure to describe/explain the benefits of social distancing and its effect on R0​
FB_IMG_1584659983708.jpg
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
It's a video about the numbers :
A well made video, rather convincing. Lovely Irish accent and calm voice.

I sat through it ... and yet, I had of course nothing better to do than googling who Ivor Cummins is. A biochemical engineer with a background in medical device engineering who once cured himself from bad blood test results and then became some kind of a health guru on low carbs (https://thefatemperor.com).

I know that one has to remain critical but I am getting so tired of the millions of epidemiologists and public health experts that have sprung up this year like mushrooms after rain ...
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
A well made video, rather convincing. Lovely Irish accent and calm voice.

I sat through it ... and yet, I had of course nothing better to do than googling who Ivor Cummins is. A biochemical engineer with a background in medical device engineering who once cured himself from bad blood test results and then became some kind of a health guru on low carbs (https://thefatemperor.com).

I know that one has to remain critical but I am getting so tired of the millions of epidemiologists and public health experts that have sprung up this year like mushrooms after rain ...
Also a PhD and expertise in one field does not make one an expert in another field. And just being an MD does not make one a virologist or epidemiologist.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I'm not sure that disparaging others in ad hominem is much help towards the purpose of the thread.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I'm not sure that disparaging others in ad hominem is much help towards the purpose of the thread.
What do you mean by this? Checking out the professional background and trying to assess the extent and depth of professional knowledge of a YouTuber and his qualifications as to providing reliable and useful Coronavirus specific information? Such as the producer of this video? That's not what I regard as "disparaging others in ad hominem".

What made my ears prick first was his talk about "herd immunity". But perhaps the real reason for it was the fact that some time ago I had listened to the podcast of a leading Coronavirus virologist - who, btw, took pains at the time to point out that he was a virologist and not an epidemiologist - trying to explain the basics of the percolation phenomenon to his rapt audience, a theory about how epidemics behave and spread in real life.

This percolator phenomenon and other aspects of infection ecology (never heard that term before but then I am not a expert of this matter) have been explored for some 40 years or so, and are still being explored, in a long running study in the deserts of Kasachstan. It concerns a species of gerbils, rhombomys opimus, a carrier of fleas who are a vector of two diseases, namely plague (yersinia pestis) and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis, as I have learnt.

It's all a bit more complicated in real life with epidemics. Not a wave, not evenly spreading over time and space. Not every gerbil infects three other gerbils evenly throughout their communities. From what I understood and remember, the virus circulates for a while at low level in large families or communities in their burrows, even when they interact with other gerbil communities nearby, and under certain conditions, puff, the disease explodes and much larger numbers get infected within a specific area or group.

As I said, it's all a bit more complicated than the simple models with which we interested video watchers and video makers got acquainted throughout this year.
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
What I also don't like about this Ivor Cummins guy - but I admit that's just my personal reaction - is the way he hawks his product and appeals on Twitter to people to spread his video which he praises as "crucial viewing". Just one quote of many: The #Casedemic in Europe rages on - the psychosis continues unabated. You can retweet to help break the spell, and banish the witch. We need science & rationality back - and to stop the wanton destruction of our society and freedoms.

And naturally, of course, appeals for donations to his cause.

I'd watch the thing - and have done so - but I wouldn't spread it nor would I recommend it. But that's me.
 
Last edited:

LesR

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2017, 2018; Camino Portuguese 2019
What I also don't like about this Ivor Cummins guy - but I admit that's just my personal reaction - is the way he hawks his product and appeals on Twitter to people to spread his video which he praises as "crucial viewing". Quote: The #Casedemic in Europe rages on - the psychosis continues unabated. You can retweet to help break the spell, and banish the witch. We need science & rationality back - and to stop the wanton destruction of our society and freedoms. And naturally, of course, appeals for donations to his cause.

I'd watch the thing - and have done so - but I wouldn't spread it nor would I recommend it. But that's me.
I am with you on this.... A genuine and competent scientist would let the quality of their data and analysis speak for itself. Someone who extorts others to spread 'the word' invites skepticism about both motives and the quality of their science...
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
What do you mean by this? Checking out the professional background and trying to assess the extent and depth of professional knowledge of a YouTuber and his qualifications as to providing reliable and useful Coronavirus specific information? Such as the producer of this video? That's not what I regard as "disparaging others in ad hominem".
This just seems wise. People put all sorts of rubbish up on YouTube. Conspiracy theorists are a dime a dozen there.
So caveat emptor is hardly ad hominium.

From what I understood and remember, the virus circulates for a while at low level in large families or communities in their burrows, even when they interact with other gerbil communities nearby, and under certain conditions, puff, the disease explodes and much larger numbers get infected within a specific area or group.
I'm not an expert in this either, but do have an understanding of the ecology of invasive plant species. The models have much in common - substitute 'disperser' and/or 'pollinator' for 'vector' is all; the mathematical models converge nicely and have been traded back and forth betewwn epidemiology and ecology for some time. And you're right, @Kathar1na . The lag between initial introduction and widespread dispersal/infection is pretty universal. In part this is just a characteristic of exponential growth, but complex feedback interactions between the different components of the system are also a big part of the story.

And of course it is hard to tease out which of these variables is most responsible for the lag. Science has a fraught relationship with causality; it's super hard to nail it down in natural systems where you can't manipulate variables. But that does not mean correlation is unimportant.
 
Last edited:

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I just cannot see how this stuff about personalities can mitigate the fact that these Covid19 graphs are so strikingly familiar (if a bit sharper) to those of past influenza epidemics, and that the current massive testing regimen is leading to very similar "positives versus deaths" statistical structures as the H1N1 "swine flu" epidemic which led to a "many positives, few deaths" situation not dissimilar to the present one.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I am not going to watch the video a second time. It's not just about "innocent" flu-like epidemic graphs and a few mortality figures over time. One of the first sentences of the commentator: "The virus when it comes in new hits around 20% of the population. So 80% are already de facto immune ... t-cells, cross-immunisation ....". The video is full of opinion and not maths, and the opinion is not based on personal expertise and experience in dealing with viruses and epidemics and public health related to this.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
What do you mean by this? Checking out the professional background and trying to assess the extent and depth of professional knowledge of a YouTuber and his qualifications as to providing reliable and useful Coronavirus specific information? Such as the producer of this video? That's not what I regard as "disparaging others in ad hominem".
I also took time to investigate Ivor Cummins' background...


"When I took out most of the carbohydrate in a knife edge switch, within six to eight weeks I lost over 30 pounds in weight and my bloods essentially all resolved"

Now this quote is preceded in the blog by various remarks about how poorly he was advised by his doctors. If he was able to lose 30lbs and not look emaciated (see online images) then he was clearly substantially overweight. He then represents his "discovery" of reducing carbs in his diet leading to weight loss as something revolutionary...this all took place in 2012 according to the blog.

Ivor, I have news for you ; improving cholesterol etc by losing a large amount of weight is as old as the hills or at least as old as my many years as a general practitioner (UK-speak for family physician).

I am working up the courage to watch the whole video ; my experience with Covid-19 videos has not been good...
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I am not going to watch the video a second time.
That didn't last long. I had of course another peek, I want to be sure of what I'm saying. About 33 minutes into the video, verbatim: "Lockdowns and stuff don't really work but they could have an effect that's negative. They are going to cause [sic] way more cancer deaths from late diagnosis and way more you know malnourishment and suicide and dreadful suffering and impacts due to destroying the economies and they are taking away our cherished freedoms and causing terrible societal impacts."

Now it has to be said that this guy is not at all one of these total nutters that you may find in your circle of friends or on the net, and I am certainly not against listening to views that do not coincide 100% with mine. All I can say is that this ain't no maths, folks.

Oh how I yearn for those early days in March. Do you remember that video of pure mathematics that explained exponential curves and logistic curves? The video that had formulas in it? The video that made you curious to see whether the new epidemic really followed an approximation of an exponential curve during its growth phase, and with bated breath you entered the newest fatality data every day on a logarithmic scale and low and behold the data formed a straight line? Those days seem so far away now ... 😎
 
Last edited:

David Tallan

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (1989 and 2016), Portugues - from Porto (2018)
On "ad hominem" and science.

The proposition that to refute something we should attack the argument and not the person is a valid one. Unfortunately, I'm finding that as our (humanity's) knowledge increases, it is increasingly a challenging one. All too often I find that I lack the necessary knowledge myself to effectively assess the quality of an argument. On a good day, I can judge whether the conclusions follow logically from the premises. But too often I am not in a position to judge how accurate the premises are. Or to reproduce the experiment and see for myself if the reported results ensue. I am just not in the same place as an expert in the field with an extensive research and study background to judge those science reported. In areas where significant expertise is needed to accurately evaluate, there is a certain value to assessing the qualifications of the person putting forth the argument, and not just the argument themselves. I think discussing someone's qualifications and track record is not necessarily the same as judging their character and personality, and may have a place in deciding whether to believe what they propose.

Note: This a comment on the discussion (and many others I'm seeing these days) and not on this particular video.
 

murraydv

Via de la Plata / Sanabres / Camino de Levante
Camino(s) past & future
Completed Via de la Plata (2018).
Started Camino de Levante (2019).
On a lighter note and given that this is a mathematical sub post, did you know that many of the writers on the Simpsons are mathematical geniuses. They even have Bart write up a solution to the 400 year old Fermat’s last theorem........almost! F437A8C2-E3F2-49EC-9488-E8BF8D80B093.jpeg
 

murraydv

Via de la Plata / Sanabres / Camino de Levante
Camino(s) past & future
Completed Via de la Plata (2018).
Started Camino de Levante (2019).
On a lighter note and given that this is a mathematical sub post, did you know that many of the writers on the Simpsons are mathematical geniuses. They even have Bart write up a solution to the 400 year old Fermat’s last theorem........almost! View attachment 83003
It’s a great book by the way.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
One of the first sentences of the commentator: "The virus when it comes in new hits around 20% of the population. So 80% are already de facto immune ...
erm "a" virus ;
 

LesR

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2017, 2018; Camino Portuguese 2019
"The virus when it comes in new hits around 20% of the population. So 80% are already de facto immune ... t-cells, cross-immunisation ....". T
I would like to think that this is the considered and collegiate view of competent epidemiologists, but as no reference is given, it is more likely to be just another urban myth...

Given COV-2 woudl seem to be regarded as a novel vorus (as far as humans are concerned), I wonder wher this alleged immunity of 80% of the population might have come from...
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
On "ad hominem" and science.

The proposition that to refute something we should attack the argument and not the person is a valid one. Unfortunately, I'm finding that as our (humanity's) knowledge increases, it is increasingly a challenging one. All too often I find that I lack the necessary knowledge myself to effectively assess the quality of an argument. On a good day, I can judge whether the conclusions follow logically from the premises. But too often I am not in a position to judge how accurate the premises are. Or to reproduce the experiment and see for myself if the reported results ensue. I am just not in the same place as an expert in the field with an extensive research and study background to judge those science reported. In areas where significant expertise is needed to accurately evaluate, there is a certain value to assessing the qualifications of the person putting forth the argument, and not just the argument themselves. I think discussing someone's qualifications and track record is not necessarily the same as judging their character and personality, and may have a place in deciding whether to believe what they propose.

Note: This a comment on the discussion (and many others I'm seeing these days) and not on this particular video.
In science it is vital to consider the reputation and qualifications of the person publishing a finding.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
On that premise we might have discounted Michael Faraday.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
On that premise we might have discounted Michael Faraday.
Alas, too many people today think that they are Faradays and Einsteins. Few are.

More seriously, that's why there is a thing like peer review.

And, moreover, that is why a leading virologist who up to now had been very generous and open with his newest research results and had shared them freely and as soon as possible with the world at large, announced recently that he has stopped publishing his work on the so called preprint servers where everyone and their dog can read them and comment on them before peer review. He simply had enough of the unqualified comments and "critique" from people who don't have a clue but think they see through everything without any specialist qualification and without any experience whatsoever in the area.

I don't blame him.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
This may be ill-advised, but I'm going to wade in.
In areas where significant expertise is needed to accurately evaluate, there is a certain value to assessing the qualifications of the person putting forth the argument, and not just the argument themselves. I think discussing someone's qualifications and track record is not necessarily the same as judging their character and personality, and may have a place in deciding whether to believe what they propose.
In science it is vital to consider the reputation and qualifications of the person publishing a finding.
In public forums like YouTube (where there is all manner of made up expertise, conspiracy theories, and useless false 'information), assessing real expertise is essential. As @Doughnut NZ says, that kind of assessment also goes on within science - by way of peer reviews before any work is published in a reputable journal, mostly. It is essential there too.

On that premise we might have discounted Michael Faraday.
This is a false equivalence. The way we do science now is profoundly different than it was 150 years ago. The world, technology, and systems are vastly more complex; all that requires a different kind of expertise than in Faraday's or Darwin's time when one could be an active scientist without much in the way of a formal training. Darwin had a bachelor's degree, Faraday none...other than honorary ones. Now, the level of work they were doing requires not a mere PhD, but perhaps also post-docs - and a lot of specific training.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Yep. question but don't discount...Covid, if allowed, is only the viral equivalent of a Ponzi scheme.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
He simply had enough of the unqualified comments and "critique" from people who don't have a clue but think they see through everything without any specialist qualification and without any experience whatsoever in the area.

I don't blame him.
Bravo. Me neither. Too many seem entitled to chime in with uninformed opinions as though they actually have something to contribute to the conversation when in fact they don't know what they don't know. Before anyone blasts me as an elitist, I would say as far as epidemiology and virology are concerned most of us (myself included) are in that category, even if we have Quite a lot of expertise in related scientific fields.

Yep. question but don't discount...Covid, if allowed, is only the viral equivalent of a Ponzi scheme.
Excuse me? 🤔
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I would like to think that this is the considered and collegiate view of competent epidemiologists, but as no reference is given, it is more likely to be just another urban myth...
Well, usually about 50% of the population has that kind of immunity to a typical flu virus (though that % does vary tremendously from one virus to the next) -- and the estimates that I've seen as regards Covid19 are between 15% and 60% ; but nobody actually knows yet, and it's unlikely to be known until after some years of research.

So, "up to 60%" is accurate, but somewhat misleading. But it's fairly strongly indicated that it's some number above about 10% at least, from statistics about large families stuck together in lockdown and infected with the disease.

Then again, it does appear that about 80%-90% of "cases" and cases are asymptomatic or benign, so whether you count the true asymptomatics as being "immune" or not would greatly alter what % of the population you think is "immune" to it.

But again, it's just too early to tell, and it's another one that nobody really knows yet.

Which of course doesn't prevent personal opinions on the matter.

And besides, there's still a great deal about coronaviruses, both flu ones and SARS as well as common cold coronaviruses that simply isn't understood, else we'd have some effective cures for them.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
... the opinion is not based on personal expertise and experience in dealing with viruses and epidemics and public health related to this.
That's actually incorrect, as he has formed his opinions on the basis of information from expert virologists, epidemiologists, and medical research scientists working in hospitals at the centre of virus outbreaks.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Hah!

I was lazily googling for immunity and this turned up: "TWiV 659 - Sloppy coronavirus immunity with Christian Drosten". It's an American podcast with title "This Week in Virology". It is an interview with a leading German clinical virologist, Dr Christian Drosten, who has actually researched Coronaviruses for a many years. The section Plague Percolation Phenomenon starts around 24:20; I had mentioned it earlier.

Much of the interview concerns the situation in Germany but there are also comparisons with Spain and France, and also with the USA and Argentina. BTW, does Germany get a lot of mention in the Cummins' video? Or at least as much as Sweden? I don't remember and I don't think so but that country doesn't fit into his scheme.

The Drosten interview (in English) is a whole hour! You can pick a start and go forward or backward in 30 seconds steps. Not as entertaining as a video, just people talking slowly.

I listened to parts of it and smiled when I heard him saying this: "This is a very nice Nature paper [from 2008] by ... and I know one of the authors, Hervig Leirs, and one of the others, so actually I know two authors here. I've known this paper by heart and I remembered it somehow and while making up my mind about this difficult situation now [in Germany] with low prevalence going slightly up and then down again and nobody really understands what's going on while in Spain and France there now seems to be an exponential increase again, I'm actually considering whether this percolation theory should be considered more [and so on]

That, to me, illustrates the fundamental difference between someone with actual expertise and someone who collects information from various sources selectively and draws conclusions from it.
 
Last edited:

LesR

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2017, 2018; Camino Portuguese 2019
Well, usually about 50% of the population has that kind of immunity to a typical flu virus (though that % does vary tremendously from one virus to the next) -- and the estimates that I've seen as regards Covid19 are between 15% and 60% ; but nobody actually knows yet, and it's unlikely to be known until after some years of research.

So, "up to 60%" is accurate, but somewhat misleading. But it's fairly strongly indicated that it's some number above about 10% at least, from statistics about large families stuck together in lockdown and infected with the disease.

Then again, it does appear that about 80%-90% of "cases" and cases are asymptomatic or benign, so whether you count the true asymptomatics as being "immune" or not would greatly alter what % of the population you think is "immune" to it.

But again, it's just too early to tell, and it's another one that nobody really knows yet.

Which of course doesn't prevent personal opinions on the matter.

And besides, there's still a great deal about coronaviruses, both flu ones and SARS as well as common cold coronaviruses that simply isn't understood, else we'd have some effective cures for them.
‘Immunity from infection’ and ‘being infected but asymptomatic’ are rather different things...?
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
That's actually incorrect, as he has formed his opinions on the basis of information from expert virologists, epidemiologists, and medical research scientists working in hospitals at the centre of virus outbreaks.
Inexpert opinion based on cherry-picked expert statements is still inexpert opinion. And when misinformation or biased uninformed opinion gets shared online the amplification can be dangerous.

That, to me, illustrates the fundamental difference between someone with actual expertise and someone who collects information from various sources selectively and draws conclusions from it.
Exactly.

‘Immunity from infection’ and ‘being infected but asymptomatic’ are rather different things...?
No need for the question mark there. They are.;)
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
BTW, does Germany get a lot of mention in the Cummins' video? Or at least as much as Sweden? I don't remember and I don't think so but that country doesn't fit into his scheme.
I have to correct my statement 😇. As far as I remember, a number of graphs in the video are taken from EuroMOMO. This is a website created and maintained by a Department of Infectious Disease, Epidemiology and Prevention in Denmark. It tracks mortality data for 24 European countries. For reasons unknown to me, they apparently do not get data for Germany as a whole, only data for the German regions of Hesse and Berlin. Pity.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I couldn't help it, I had another look, both at the first few frames of the video and at the EuroMomo site from where the graphs in the video had been copied. I have also copied the keys for the graphs from EuroMomo (see below).

Genuine question: Given the baseline (dotted grey), the normal range (shaded grey) and the dotted red line above which substantial increase starts, do you note - as the video implies - "a very low death rate preceding Covid" for the two age groups 45-64 years and 65+ years? Because, honestly, what I see is that the blue line (for deaths of all causes, standardised) stays pretty much within normal range? I'm not saying that this is manipulated or anything, far from it, I simply don't see a very low death rate preceding Covid for the whole time period inside the oval shape. I do know, of course, that we had a fairly modest flu season last winter. The numbers are year and weeks, btw.

What do you see?
Legend.jpg
Age groups.jpg
 
Last edited:

David Tallan

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (1989 and 2016), Portugues - from Porto (2018)
This may be ill-advised, but I'm going to wade in.
....
The world, technology, and systems are vastly more complex; all that requires a different kind of expertise than in Faraday's or Darwin's time when one could be an active scientist without much in the way of a formal training. Darwin had a bachelor's degree, Faraday none...other than honorary ones. Now, the level of work they were doing requires not a mere PhD, but perhaps also post-docs - and a lot of specific training.
This may be ill-advised, but... :cool:

While technology and society may be vastly more complex now than in Darwin's and Faraday's era, I doubt very much that the world or its natural systems are any more complex. Gravity is as simple and complex as it was in Newton's time and, indeed, as it was before humans or even the Earth appeared on the scene. Our weather systems, as complex as they are, were equally as complex in the time of the dinosaurs. The fundamental ways that the universe works are not changing or growing more complex*.

What is changing, is our understanding and recognition of complexities that were already there. Personally, I'm not ready to assume that the capacity of a relatively untrained person to look at the universe as it is and come up with simple and powerful insights has disappeared, nor am I ready to assume that all such simple and powerful insights have been discovered. What I am ready to assume is that people with much deeper knowledge and understanding of the relevant fields than I have are in a much better place to evaluate any proposed insights than I am.

* Insofar as I know, unless there is a proven theory that ties growing complexity of natural law to increasing entropy that I'm not aware of - and even if there were, I doubt there would be a significant increase in a few hundred years - a tiny blip in the life of the universe.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
The fundamental ways that the universe works are not changing or growing more complex*.
No, you're quite right.
But the sophistication of our understanding of it has - as has the complexity of our investigations into it. Newtonian physics (say) is not hugely challenging for those of mathematical bent. But quantum physics...it is another game altogether, both mathematically and technically, involving CERN's Large Hadron Collider as opposed to a simple pen, paper, and mind.

Virology and viral epidemiology are no different - except that neither existed at all into well into the 20th centuty. The virology I learned in the '70s is child's play compared to what kind of sophisticated understanding the field requires now.

That said, I agree completely with this; it was basically my point.
What I am ready to assume is that people with much deeper knowledge and understanding of the relevant fields than I have are in a much better place to evaluate any proposed insights than I am.

What do you see?
The same thing you do. Could it be that the 'low death rate' was meant to be relative to the much higher rate resulting from covid mortality?
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
In science it is vital to consider the reputation and qualifications of the person publishing a finding.
Well yes...maybe ..be careful

One of our own very eminent Epidemologists from Imperial college in London ...no names mentioned predicted that 500,000 would die in the Uk with Covid...that was back in February/ March
He advised the "powers". and total lockdown was implemented

Now this very very eminent professor had for some years advised on such matters

2001 ......Foot and mouth ......150,000 will die in the Uk!
200 died and thousands of animals slaughtered
2002 ....BSE mad cow disease...oh the fun we had at home with that term!!!!
50,000 will die here
177 died and thousands of animals slaughtered
2005.......Bird flu....150 million will die globally!
282 died
2009 .......Swine flu....65,000 will die!
451 died
2020 ........Covid 19....500,000 in the Uk will die
The book is still open on this number

Now let's remember that this man is also a professor of mathematical biology who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious diseases and has God only knows what letters after his name

And bearing in mind his history of predictions ..........how in heavens name was he ever consulted for such a serious pandemic is my question?

But then again, I'm just a simple Irish Cailin without an "ology" or an "ists " after my name and my language tends not to be too profound when I write or speak!

All I do know is that after working as a district nurse in various areas of London both ..affluent and deprived ....we as a group were aware of "trends" in diseases and conditions pertinent to certain areas ever before the scientists got involved.
We were just too busy and knackered to carry out the analysis ourselves.

Now someone above mentioned peer analysis....and so back to our very eminent professor!
This person influenced the"powers that be" re the Covid situation....

His advice was based on a 13 year old Imperial College undocumented model that was intended to be used for a flu epidemic as opposed to a coronavirus.......and most importantly......other scientists were refused access to these results or predictions that 500,000 would die of Covid in the UK and a long delay before his model was made available ....in May as far as I remember

Now......wait for it.........this very eminent professor was later discredited...not because of his many false predictions...........but that he allegedly broke lockdown

I guess you couldn't make it up!!

So just be aware that there are many "false prophets" with a lot of letters after their names .....and they're not always the ones on u tube either

Just saying!

PS....I got most of the statistics ..well all really from Google and Wikipedia!!!

Best wishes
Annette
 

David Tallan

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (1989 and 2016), Portugues - from Porto (2018)
One of our own very eminent Epidemologists from Imperial college in London ...no names mentioned predicted that 500,000 would die in the Uk with Covid...that was back in February/ March
He advised the "powers". and total lockdown was implemented
Did he predict that 500,000 would die in the UK if total lockown was implemented or that 500,000 would die if nothing was done? They are very different predictions. If his prediction was based on nothing being done to prevent spread and then total lockdown was implemented, it does not necessarily follow that the lesser number of deaths was due to the inaccuracy of his predictions.

Imagine a situation where I were to accurately predict that a volcano was going to erupt and say that unless you evacuate, the 50,000 people in the nearby town would all die. So we evacuate the town and look at the ruins thereof, buried under tons of solidified lava (or ashes). But nobody died. Then people start to point at me and say I was inept. I predicted 50,000 people would die but nobody did. That would hardly be reasonable, would it?

Which isn't to say that his predictions were reasonable. I don't have the knowledge to judge them. Just that the fact that things turned out differently when aggressive preventative measures were put in place doesn't necessarily discredit them. What would discredit them is flaws in the model that others are more qualified to judge than I. And if he is coasting on his reputation, his unwillingness to share that model with fellow scientists should affect that reputation detrimentally.

Or so it seems to me. Your mileage may vary.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
Well yes...maybe ..be careful
...
So just be aware that there are many "false prophets" with a lot of letters after their names .....and they're not always the ones on u tube either
...
PS....I got most of the statistics ..well all really from Google and Wikipedia!!!
I don't understand the point of your strongly-worded post. Of course we should not be overly impressed or reliant on the letters after someone's name. Nor should we rely excessively on a quick review of Google and Wikipedia if we want to gain a good understanding of a complex issue.
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
I don't understand the point of your strongly-worded post. Of course we should not be overly impressed or reliant on the letters after someone's name. Nor should we rely excessively on a quick review of Google and Wikipedia if we want to gain a good understanding of a complex issue.
And we shouldn't rely on the pronouncements of one expert in the field. I look at the consensus of experts.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
One of our own very eminent Epidemologists from Imperial college in London ...no names mentioned
But, @Annette london, he has become world famous: Neil Ferguson whose modelling and report published in March 2020 "subsequently made him a global public figure of hate on the libertarian right and earned him the sobriquet 'Professor Lockdown'". And you left out the juicy bits of why he and someone else broke the lockdown. ;)

There is a long article about the whole long story in the New Statesman of 31 July 2020: Neil Ferguson: The Covid modeller. I was surprised to read that he never met Prime Minister Boris Johnson in person during all this time.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
I don't understand the point of your strongly-worded post. Of course we should not be overly impressed or reliant on the letters after someone's name. Nor should we rely excessively on a quick review of Google and Wikipedia if we want to gain a good understanding of a complex issue.
Actually I was responding to Dougnut NZ comment!!
Strongly worded.....I don't think so

Doug suggested that the credentials, reputations and qualifications of scientists should always be checked before blindly following their findings........well so much for that re afore mentioned scientist.
I'm sure there are plenty of them around and they are not all UTubers either

Perhaps you have not heard of this Epidemiologist?
Have you read his papers?
From 2001??
And from where do you think I and others should get facts and figures ...where do you get your information from as a matter of interest??

I don't have the time to read complex academic papers right now and it's a shame I admitted as to where I got my figures....
I could have passed myself off as a very clever academic couldn't I ??
 

Jomas

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
VF many times. Monaco-Lindau '15. Assisi-Pietralcina '17. CF '18. VF small part 09/20 next
I think I understand @annettelondon's point of view. In some sudden, unexpected situations, which catch us unprepared because we cannot really know everything in this world .... we need to trust those who are presented to us as competent and informed *. I speak in general and not of the covid. It makes sense in that moment .... but then you realize that "that one" ..... didn't matter much. It is then easy to make brilliant reflections or give targeted advice in retrospect .... it is a constant human trend. If I go to read the many declarations of the beginning of the epidemic .... those of the authorities of various sectors .... I think I can conclude that everything is valid and everything is not valid.

* Otherwise we are all doctors, professors, scientist, politicians and highly sages ....

Ps:I am also among those who gave targeted advice after it all happened. It was very easy
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Case in point, Influenza is not a coronavirus.
OK

Some common cold viruses are coronaviruses, and some influenza-like diseases are caused by coronaviruses.

Thanks for motivating me to double-check.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
Did he predict that 500,000 would die in the UK if total lockown was implemented or that 500,000 would die if nothing was done? They are very different predictions. If his prediction was based on nothing being done to prevent spread and then total lockdown was implemented, it does not necessarily follow that the lesser number of deaths was due to the inaccuracy of his predictions.

Imagine a situation where I were to accurately predict that a volcano was going to erupt and say that unless you evacuate, the 50,000 people in the nearby town would all die. So we evacuate the town and look at the ruins thereof, buried under tons of solidified lava (or ashes). But nobody died. Then people start to point at me and say I was inept. I predicted 50,000 people would die but nobody did. That would hardly be reasonable, would it?

Which isn't to say that his predictions were reasonable. I don't have the knowledge to judge them. Just that the fact that things turned out differently when aggressive preventative measures were put in place doesn't necessarily discredit them. What would discredit them is flaws in the model that others are more qualified to judge than I. And if he is coasting on his reputation, his unwillingness to share that model with fellow scientists should affect that reputation detrimentally.

Or so it seems to me. Your mileage may vary.
Thank you David
I do see your point here
Perhaps I got my words muddled

It was a time of panic and the virus was gaining ground I think and the powers at be had to do something of course

However from what I subsequently read .....and from a number of eminent scientists.........call them what you will.....that the model used to predict these numbers was so highly flawed that it should have never been relied upon for policy decisions
Also, apparently it did not meet any of the criteria required

It just amazes me that a whole nation was closed down based on one persons prediction ....and a flawed one at that
Cheers
Annette
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Inexpert opinion based on cherry-picked expert statements is still inexpert opinion. And when misinformation or biased uninformed opinion gets shared online the amplification can be dangerous.
So then one should ignore your opinions then ?

---

At the risk of repeating myself, my interest in that video concerns the mathematical models ; not the video-maker's personal opinions nor interpretations, though they're just as worthy of interest as anything that anybody types into these threads.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
But, @Annette london, he has become world famous: Neil Ferguson whose modelling and report published in March 2020 "subsequently made him a global public figure of hate on the libertarian right and earned him the sobriquet 'Professor Lockdown'". And you left out the juicy bits of why he and someone else broke the lockdown. ;)

There is a long article about the whole long story in the New Statesman of 31 July 2020: Neil Ferguson: The Covid modeller. I was surprised to read that he never met Prime Minister Boris Johnson in person during all this time.
Thanks Katerina,
Ah yes, the juicy parts ....I devoured those snippets too!!
What a carry on that was
I will read that article in the New Statesman and hope that there will be some more juicy tit bits there! too.
We must keep things in perspective you know ...juicy bits ......Covid or not......life goes on ......more juicy needed...less Covid!!
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
And we shouldn't rely on the pronouncements of one expert in the field. I look at the consensus of experts.
Agree with you Trecile,
Unfortunately...or fortunately...who knows ...our powers at be DID rely on one persons prediction .....no other scientist had the opportunity to check his model because he refused to "share"
However ...as our other eminent guy said " what's done is done and cannot be undone"
Water under the bridge and it's back to Katharinas juicy bits!
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
the credentials, reputations and qualifications of scientists should always be checked before blindly following their findings.
I don't think he suggested blindly following anyone.
where do you get your information from as a matter of interest
I get it from a variety of mainstream news sources, supplemented by occasional forays into more specialized publications, all with a consideration of the source's qualifications, the stated assumptions and possible unstated assumptions, the possible misquoting and taking-out-of-context, the fact that knowledge is always incomplete, and sometimes even experts get it wrong.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
I don't think he suggested blindly following anyone.

I get it from a variety of mainstream news sources, supplemented by occasional forays into more specialized publications, all with a consideration of the source's qualifications, the stated assumptions and possible unstated assumptions, the possible misquoting and taking-out-of-context, the fact that knowledge is always incomplete, and sometimes even experts get it wrong.
Good for you!

That's exactly where I get my information from too!!!

Guess we're like two peas in a pod
Birds of a feather.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
The same thing you do.
Thanks for the confirmation. I think I will give it a miss now. An actual doctor has now appeared in the videomaker's Twitter feed. He even made a video of himself watching the video and commenting it. He titles it "Actual doctor watches Covid pseudoscience video." I'll let them battle it out ... 😇

I think all that I will take away from this video is the fact that there are functions that are called Gompertz functions and they can be useful to describe stuff.
 
Last edited:

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
Thanks for the confirmation. I think I will give it a miss now. An actual doctor has now appeared in the videomaker's Twitter feed. He even made a video of himself watching the video and commenting it. He titles it "Actual doctor watches Covid pseudoscience video." I'll let them battle it out ...
I found the video that you refer to, and while I haven't watched all of it, I did read the written summary
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I found the video that you refer to, and while I haven't watched all of it, I did read the written summary
I let it run for a while in the background and thought, ok, well ... and didn't pay close attention. I just felt a bit reassured in my own assessment which was more based on a gut feeling than on a careful study.

Then I googled the doctor's name and an article in the Guardian turned up: It was an act of principle: The Covid doctor who quit over Cummings. Dominic Cummings is a special adviser to Prime Minister Boris Johnson and a controversial figure in British politics. The doctor is a young cardiologist who had been drafted on to a Covid-19 intensive care unit in March. He will continue to work in the intensive care unit until October but he resigned from his post as a cardiologist at a large London hospital as a matter of principle and protest.

Amazing stuff.
 
Last edited:

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
FYI, the youtube video below sends you to this interactive website that goes into the math of covid prevention through the wearing of masks.

https://aatishb.com/maskmath

Rick, I appreciated you adding this video to the thread. It shows compelling reasons why using masks can make a big difference in reducing the spread of covid. Add in hand washing hygiene and social distancing and we will be doing all we can for now.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
Agree with you Trecile,
Unfortunately...or fortunately...who knows ...our powers at be DID rely on one persons prediction
Untrue. Ferguson presented his team's work to the SAGE committee, a group of eminent scientists that was set up to advise the UK government. Here his team's work was peer reviewed by 43 other scientists. The names of the sub-group (44 members) responsible for modeling can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...f-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups

Only once his team's work had been peer reviewed was it presented to the Government and so the advice given to the UK Government at the time represented the combined opinion of 44 eminent scientists. Further, it wasn't even Prof. Ferguson who delivered the advice to the UK Government but was instead delivered by the Chairperson of the SAGE Committee.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
.....no other scientist had the opportunity to check his model because he refused to "share"
Untrue. The code and assumptions that made up the model was released for independent peer review at the end of April, 2020. It is correct that the model was not released for peer review at the same time as the predictions were initially released and Prof. Ferguson has said that this was because the code for the model was very untidy because they had quickly modified an earlier model that had been designed for an Influenza epidemic and the team wanted time to tidy their code. As both a scientist and a computer scientist I understand this initial reluctance. During model development new ideas get tacked on to a model quickly, without much thought for tidiness or good code structure in order to get quick results. However once other people want to see your code it is natural to want to tidy it up first so it looks a bit more professional. I have done this many times in my own work.

However, because of the criticism they received at the time about the non-release they then agreed to release it, warts and all.

This Nature (possibly one of the most prestigious natural science publishers in the world) article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y analyses both the code (and assumptions) of the model and re-ran it to successfully reproduce the same results. The article concludes that the code is indeed messy and well short of the coherent structure that good computer code would normally be expected from commercial computer software. However, the researchers who reviewed the code said that they could not find any logical faults with it and confirmed that much of the academic model code that they had seen from other teams was similarly untidy and simply reflected that the people doing the coding were not Computer Scientists but rather their competence was in the field that they were modelling.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
However ...as our other eminent guy said " what's done is done and cannot be undone"
Water under the bridge and it's back to Katharinas juicy bits!
George EP Box, one of the great statistical minds of the 20th century, according to this article: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2010.00442.x#:~:text=“Essentially all models are wrong,minds of the 20th century. Is quoted as saying "Essentially all models are wrong, but some are useful".

Models are some approximation of reality but it is important to remember that they are not reality and so all models are subject to criticism. In some cases that criticism is well placed. In this case, the fairy tales about this model are precisely that, fairy tales.

Edited to correct spelling and to remove any potential referral to politics.
 
Last edited:

SabineP

Camino = Gratitude + Compassion.
Camino(s) past & future
some and then more. see my signature.
But, @Annette london, he has become world famous: Neil Ferguson whose modelling and report published in March 2020 "subsequently made him a global public figure of hate on the libertarian right and earned him the sobriquet 'Professor Lockdown'". And you left out the juicy bits of why he and someone else broke the lockdown. ;)

There is a long article about the whole long story in the New Statesman of 31 July 2020: Neil Ferguson: The Covid modeller. I was surprised to read that he never met Prime Minister Boris Johnson in person during all this time.

Thank you @Kathar1na for this interesting article. Respectable source compared to some recent posted Covid articles here on this forum from dodgy tabloids with superficial and false accusations.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
@Doughnut NZ, thank you for these interesting contributions. I had followed the Ferguson "story" only sporadically and superficially in the popular press and I had been left with the impression that he and his model had been totally discredited. I was already a bit surprised that the New Statesman article painted a different picture and you have given us more pertinent "technical" background information. Thank you.

You rightly point out that statistical/mathematical models are some approximation of reality, including future reality, but they don't predict the future.

An interesting quote from the article: “Pandemics are not like hurricanes. You don’t hunker down, weather the storm, and then everything goes back to normal. It’s a dynamical system, it’s a virus spreading in the human population: what happens to it depends on how we behave, how we interact.”

I read somewhere (I can't find the source right now) that one thing that was underestimated in the Ferguson models as to the input data that they used was the compliance of households during a lockdown. They used a figure of only 50% but the actual compliance turned out to be much higher.

We regularly complain on the forum about people who do not comply with the obligation to wear face masks or to severely restrict their social interactions and so on. In reality, and I think this does apply to numerous European countries, the level of compliance in their populations was found to be astonishingly high.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Sure, if that's your preference.
I think you should have looked a bit further in that post, where I said :

"just as worthy of interest as anything that anybody types into these threads"

Pacem 🏳
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
An interesting quote from the article: “Pandemics are not like hurricanes. You don’t hunker down, weather the storm, and then everything goes back to normal. It’s a dynamical system, it’s a virus spreading in the human population: what happens to it depends on how we behave, how we interact.”
Well, the most typical pandemics (from the POV of the general population) are a bit like that -- though of course anyone in the medical professions and especially in the hospitals will have a completely different perspective.

But to be pedantic that's a bad opposition -- a hurricane is also a dynamic system, and its effect on populations also depends on how we behave, how we interact.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
to be pedantic that's a bad opposition -- a hurricane is also a dynamic system, and its effect on populations also depends on how we behave, how we interact.
Huh? The quote says: what happens to it depends on how we behave, how we interact. The quote doesn't say: what happens to us depends on how we behave, how we interact.

But maybe I don't see the big picture. Which behaviour of individual persons are you thinking of that will significantly alter the course or strength or duration/"life span" of a hurricane?
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Which behaviour of individual persons are you thinking of that will significantly alter the course or strength or duration/"life span" of a hurricane?
I said "its effect on populations" -- how we behave towards it and how we interact with it, will significantly affect how it will affect people, by for example organising evacuations, boarding up houses, organising shelters and emergency supplies, etc.

By reducing the possibilities that a hurricane has of affecting people in a bad way, fewer people will be.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
Again, if I remember correctly, this is actually one of the fallacies/misleading comments in the earlier video. Provided I remember correctly, the whole course of Covid-19 epidemics is described as something immutable predestined in the video. The video maker claims that the course will be the same whether we have a lockdown, restrict social interactions, and wear masks or not. Look at Sweden, he says. What he omits is the fact that even in Sweden, or in Stockholm at least, the economic life slowed down, people stayed more at home etc etc - voluntarily. In my own environment, I distinctly remember that my friends and I had stopped our habit of hugging and kissing on cheeks twice or three times at the beginning and end of every meeting at a point in time at least one week before the severe national lockdown was declared, and maybe we had already modified our behaviour even earlier. The videomarker ignores all this in his generalisations.
 
Last edited:

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (no name; Tours; Francés; sea; no name)
I said "its effect on populations"
@JabbaPapa, you react to the last post instead of looking at the whole exchange that lead to it. I find such reactions (from anyone, I hasten to add, and I've probably done it myself) sometimes frustrating because the whole exchange becomes pointless and I regret that I engaged at all - but then it would look like I agreed with a reply when I don't. This is exactly why the quote says: "Pandemics are not like hurricanes. You don’t hunker down, weather the storm". Isn't it obvious that this covers measures to protect oneself? And that these measures don't change the storm? That it's an essential difference between storms and epidemics because in the latter case protective measures do influence the course of the epidemic??? That it's not [ quote ] "a bad opposition"?

This is the maths thread, after all 🤓. I don't know the correct vocabulary in English but we ought to endeavour to adhere to mathematical standards here: proposition, logical argumentation, conclusion. 😆
 
Last edited:
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
But, @Annette london, he has become world famous: Neil Ferguson whose modelling and report published in March 2020 "subsequently made him a global public figure of hate on the libertarian right and earned him the sobriquet 'Professor Lockdown'". And you left out the juicy bits of why he and someone else broke the lockdown. ;)

There is a long article about the whole long story in the New Statesman of 31 July 2020: Neil Ferguson: The Covid modeller. I was surprised to read that he never met Prime Minister Boris Johnson in person during all this time.
Thank you for that excellent article Katherina
A brilliant man of course and he can even acknowledge his lack of humility!
Glad that he seems so optimistic about a vaccine though
Will most probably leave this thread now...I was never much good at Maths anyway.
Better head back to "the not so serious thread" now
 
Last edited:

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
I'm truly not pointing fingers at anyone, but this thread is beginning to remind me of why discussing politics and religion is not allowed on this forum.
 


Advertisement

Booking.com

Camino Conversations

Camino Conversations

Forum Rules

Forum Rules

Forum Donation

Forum Donation
For those with no forum account, it is possible to donate here as well. Thank you for your support! Ivar

Follow Casa Ivar on Instagram

Most downloaded Resources

When is the best time to walk?

  • January

    Votes: 16 1.2%
  • February

    Votes: 10 0.8%
  • March

    Votes: 56 4.3%
  • April

    Votes: 197 15.0%
  • May

    Votes: 327 24.9%
  • June

    Votes: 95 7.2%
  • July

    Votes: 24 1.8%
  • August

    Votes: 27 2.1%
  • September

    Votes: 379 28.9%
  • October

    Votes: 158 12.0%
  • November

    Votes: 17 1.3%
  • December

    Votes: 7 0.5%

Camino Forum Store

Camino Forum Store
Top
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

Sure, ad-blocking software does a great job at blocking ads, but it also blocks useful features of our website. For the best site experience please disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock