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COVID New COVID Variant Originated in Spain

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Camino(s) past & future
2017-Sarria to Santiago and Lires to Finisterre
Please see the following link from Switzerland. Those with upcoming plans to return to continents other than Europe might want to take heed.

 
Camino(s) past & future
Lots ;0)
Here is the probable source of the data on which swissinfo, the Financial Times, Guardian and many other newspapers and news sites have based their articles. https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/20A.EU1 This stuff is multi-sourced and not yet all peer-reviewed but it ain't fake-news. We are living with a classic, mutating, respiratory virus. Be careful out there.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I'm not buying it -- coronaviruses do not mutate as easily as rhinoviruses. These sorts of minor mutations are mostly used to determine the history of the propagation of diseases to various outbreaks of it, but they are insufficient to constitute the same sort of differences that exist between this seasonal flu and that one.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.

This is a link to the PDF of the research paper in question ; Tinca's link seems to be to the data files.

There is a short preamble and then this :

CAVEATS: • This variant rose in frequency in multiple countries, but we have no direct evidence that it spreads faster. The rise in frequency could also be due to epidemiological factors. • There are currently no data to evaluate whether this variant affects the severity of the disease. • While dominant in some countries, 20A.EU1 has not taken over everywhere and diverse variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to circulate across Europe.

These statements are certainly undramatic and convey no sense of alarm ; only time will tell.

I suggested in another place (Times of London, actually) that all Covid-related articles and comments should be prefaced (or even "topped and tailed") by this :

Covid-19 : we just do not know...
 
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VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
m not buying it -- coronaviruses do not mutate as easily as rhinoviruses.
Are you a virologist, @JabbaPapa?
Just asking...

Those of us who are inexpert (myself included) can read all we like, but need to hold fire with the opinions and patiently wait for consensus to develop amongst the community of scientists people who know what they're doing. This is still an unfolding picture.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
Is the Financial Times writer who penned that article a virologist ?
You're right. Of course not. But they are reporting, not opining. "Scientist's work shows X," versus "I think X."
;)
We all have opinions. Me too. But unless we're genuine experts, those opinions are not founded on deep understanding.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
Very good answer.
Well, aren't you one bit curious about whether the journalist is a virologist or not 🙃? I got curious.

Clive Cookson, who signed the FT article as author, has worked in science journalism all his professional life. He has a First Class Honours degree in chemistry from Oxford University. What we don't know is who was the editor who headlined the article. :rolleyes:

BTW, my guess is that the article is based on the press release from the University of Basel where part of the research team is based, see Spread of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant across Europe in summer 2020. This stuff is incredible complicated and you have to invest years and years of specialist training and professional experience to be able to be productive in any way. And then you also need people who are able to communicate their work to a non-specialist general public. And then there are non-trained people in the general public who know everything better ... 🙃
 
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Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
Oh, this is fun. There is a ton of peripheral info about the research report on medRxiv, the preprint server where the report is made publicly available. Among other things, there is an overview of the attention that it got so far in the Twitter sphere. "So far, Altmetric has seen 1659 tweets from 1524 users, with an upper bound of 5,037,852 followers".

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 1,525 tweeters who shared this research output:


Members of the public131286%
Scientists1319%
Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals)413%
Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors)413%

And there is a list of articles that the news media have published so far about the research output for this particular variant of the virus: https://medrxiv.altmetric.com/details/93280953/news. Just read the headlines! Entertainment for a whole afternoon guaranteed. 🙃
 
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VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 1,525 tweeters who shared this research output:
@Kathar1na , you always manage to peek brhind the surface appearances and show us all another dimension of a situation.
Well, look at that.
Of course there may be a number of explanations — one that immediately comes to mind is that scientists and medical practitioners may not have the same rate of Twitter participation as does the general public.
 
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
This url links to some visual representations of the data sets of this research output concerning a variant of the virus.

It's quite fascinating although I admit without the slightest hesitation that I barely understand what I see. And yet ... Do go there, play with the settings for Date Range and Tree Options. I like the radial layout best 😇. Amazing what we can find out about our world in our times and with our tools ...
 

MarkyD

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Francés 31/08/2018 - 20/10/2018
Are you a virologist, @JabbaPapa?
Just asking...

Those of us who are inexpert (myself included) can read all we like, but need to hold fire with the opinions and patiently wait for consensus to develop amongst the community of scientists people who know what they're doing. This is still an unfolding picture.
The article does mention it is awaiting peer review process, so conclusions at this stage could be premature.
The media response, scientific or otherwise, has tended to be very quick in publishing information. Unfortunately, instead of making things clearer to understand it is more often making it more confusing. Virologists, just like any other profession, are not always right, so how are we who are unqualified ever going to know better?
In fairness to the scientific community, they often need more data, more time and several peer review processes to be able to draw any reliable conclusions.
In the meantime, people will believe what they want to believe. It could be the article makes a successful and proven claim, but it could also have limitations. I don't know, and I doubt many people do either.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
That's just a statement of fact. People might get hyperbolic about the ramifications of that, but that's extra.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances(2006) Portugues(2013)
San Salvador (2017) Ingles (2019)
I am no scientist, far from it! A friend who is a doctor, and currently a therapist who works with tired out frontline doctors, told me months ago about the mutations, so when I read the article it was not surprising. I know so little I am very glad to be offered new information. I trust the people who are working against the clock. For me, for you.
 

peregrina2000

Moderator
Staff member
This is above my pay grade. Forum members post links to articles about new theories of the virus that have been released in the reputable, mainstream press. Then other forum members post a negative opinion about that new theory. Those opinions may be based on a deep understanding of epidemiology, on an irrational fear, on a political bias, or on any other conceivable basis like having thrown a dart at a dart board. I have no way of knowing the basis of anyone’s opinion, and even if I did understand the basis of that opinion, I have no way of evaluating its legitimacy, so what I will do is close the thread and ask that people take the opinion-debating to a private conversation.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
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