Pilgrim Statistics 2013 - is the growth rate slowing down?

[JohnnieWalker]

Pilgrim Statistics: is the growth rate slowing down?

I've posted the statistics for the the first 2 months of 2013 here:

http://johnniewalker-santiago.blogspot.com

Best wishes from Santiago

John

 

[fraluchi]

Pilgrim Statistics: is the growth rate slowing down?
statistics for the the first 2 months of 2013 here: http://johnniewalker-santiago.blogspot.com

Cumulative January and February "growth" figures are insignificant: only 10 pilgrims more in 2013 than in 2012. Whereas the number of Spaniards increased 8 % (87 walkers braving the weather), Foreigners decreased by 7 % (-77 equally brave pilgrims :lol: )
It's too early to come to a conclusion

 

[JohnnieWalker]

It's too early to come to a conclusion

Of course but I think this is a question to watch as this year develops. The economic crisis and the austerity programme will bite harder in Spain in the next 12 months - will that have an effect? We'll see.

 

[fraluchi]

The economic crisis and the austerity programme will bite harder in Spain in the next 12 months - will that have an effect? We'll see.

Changes incurred already during 2012.
The pilgrim arrivals in Santiago, who walked part or all of the Camino Francés, represented 70% of the total, and give a fair overall pilgrimage picture.
Arrivals in Santiago of Camino Francés pilgrims during the period April-October, who had started from Sarria increased 3% as compared to 2011, whereas those who started before Sarria decreased by 20% (26'931) The month of August figures show the main decline.
Of the overall 2012 pilgrim arrivals in Santiago, compared to those in 2011, the Spanish decreased from 53% to 49% (i.e. non-Spanish increased from 47% to 51%). The total arrivals increased by 5% due to a larger influx of foreigners.
December, January and February are the absolut low season months, with hardly 3% of the year's number of pilgrims walking the Camino Francés.
Let's see what the coming months are showing as results.

 

[alansykes]

Busiest ever March - 7229 compostelas issued. Can't read anything into it with Easter being so early.

 

[Deleted member 3000]

Spanish pilgrims were 61% of the total, so the Easter in March got them walking. The percentage starting in Sarria was 36%, (iniciado su camino en Sarria con 2.625 (36,31%); Tui con 578 (8,00%); Cebreiro con 426 (5,89%); Valença do Minho con 369 (5,10%); Ferrol con 303 (4,19%), so 100km pilgrims dominated) up from a normal annual of 21%, so, again, Easter had a lot of pilgrims walking in March. It will be interesting to watch the year unfold!!

 

[Deleted member 3000]

March 2014 numbers are 3,150 compostelas issued, down from 7,229 in 2013.

 

[alansykes]

March 2014 numbers are 3,069 compostelas issued, down from 7,229 in 2013.

That's presumably due to Easter being so late this year, rather than the start of a downwards trend?

 

[Deleted member 3000]

It is down from 2012 (3,260) and just above 2011 (3,024), so there might be a trend somewhere!

 

[JohnnieWalker]

We were discussing this in the office today - this year numbers are down anyway because of the persistent bad weather from the beginning of the year and of course Holy Week is late. We'll see the figures for the first three months tomorrow and then of course we can soon compare the Holy Week figures with previous years. However no matter the variations overall the numbers grow every year!

 

[fraluchi]

Is this site's statistics section facing problems (again) ? http://peregrinossantiago.es/esp/oficina-del-peregrino/estadisticas/

 

[fraluchi]

Problem solved
Yes, the numbers grow every year.

Here follows a limited analysis for the 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) of 2014 figures:

From January to March 5’026 pilgrims arrived in Santiago. 2’440 (48.5%) were Spanish and 2’586 (51.5%) foreigners. The proportion of foreigners compared to Spaniards has been steadily increasing.

Arrivals in 2014, compared to first quarter averages of previous years (2012 and 2011, excluding 2013 because of Easter falling during the month of March), have shown an increase of 1.3%.
It’s combination of an increase in foreigners of 9.5% and Spanish pilgrims decreasing by 6 %.
Popularity seems to shift abroad

On the Camino Francés (67% of all arrivals), less pilgrims had started before Sarria than in 2012 (- 8%) and only 1.3% more than during the same period in 2011. Could this have been caused by weather conditions?

Age groups show -3 percentage points for the less than 30 years old, +2 percentage points for the 30 to 60 group, and +1 percentage point for the more than 60 years old, when compared to previous years.

Please note: we’re talking of relatively small numbers. First quarter arrivals over the past years have only represented between 2% and 4% of any year’s total. We cannot talk about a trend as yet.

With Easter falling in April this year, the end of April year–to-date results could give a better view on a possible pilgrim situation. And include a comparison to 2013 results.