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Camino Routes
Santiago de Compostela – The Destination
200,000+ pilgrims so far this year
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[QUOTE="dougfitz, post: 1160593, member: 10982"] I extracted some of the pilgrim arrival numbers for 2022 from the Pilgrim Office website and did some simple manipulations to determine when these pilgrims would have departed from either SJPP or Sarria based on a 35 day journey from SJPP, and a seven day journey from Sarria. I have done no sensitivity analysis to see the effect of different assumptions about journey time. Does this show anything that hasn't been discussed so far? It clearly illustrates that there was a peak of departures from SJPP in May, with a peak of from both sources departing from Sarria in August. The earlier peak from SJPP does not appear to have a significant effect on the rise in total demand after Sarria - it rises pretty steadily up to August, and then drops away over the next two months. There is a clear second peak of departures from SJPP in September, but that also drops pretty quickly the following month. So there isn't anything in this simple analysis that would surprize anyone. More importantly, this is based on the Pilgrim Office statistics and some simple assumptions about how long it might have taken people starting in SJPP and Sarria to reach Santiago. I wouldn't expect someone setting out on their first camino to do this level of research and analysis, but suggesting that it isn't possible clearly isn't true. What is missing here? I haven't taken into account the build up of pilgrims along the CF from the intermediate places between SJPP and Sarria. That would clearly be possible. It would change the totals here, but whether it would reveal some surprize is not possible to know. Someone might want to do that if they are more motivated than I am on this matter. This also doesn't include data from other years to see if any of the same patterns emerge in a consistent manner, or there are changes happening that we might be interested in when we give advice about when might be a good time to start. I don't feel tempted to read too much into this, but one thing seems pretty clear, even if one would want to do more work to confirm that. Assuming for a moment that the CF can sustain the peak demand, albeit that there might be difficulties finding places at those times, it seems from this that outside these periods there are going to be reasonable vacancy rates leading up to and beyond Sarria. The difficulty might be more in finding where there are places to stay, than one of there being no places at all. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Pilgrim Arrivals 2022[/TD] [TD]Estimated Departures[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]%of Peak Demand[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]From SJPP[/TD] [TD]From Sarria[/TD] [TD]From SJPP[/TD] [TD]From Sarria[/TD] [TD]Total ex Sarria[/TD] [TD]From SJPP[/TD] [TD]From Sarria[/TD] [TD]Total ex Sarria[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]April[/TD] [TD]1094[/TD] [TD]12278[/TD] [TD]4304[/TD] [TD]9209[/TD] [TD]10029[/TD] [TD]80%[/TD] [TD]36%[/TD] [TD]35%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]May[/TD] [TD]4304[/TD] [TD]12982[/TD] [TD]5399[/TD] [TD]13968[/TD] [TD]18673[/TD] [TD]100%[/TD] [TD]55%[/TD] [TD]66%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]June[/TD] [TD]5908[/TD] [TD]16924[/TD] [TD]3245[/TD] [TD]17797[/TD] [TD]23068[/TD] [TD]60%[/TD] [TD]70%[/TD] [TD]81%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]July[/TD] [TD]3361[/TD] [TD]20415[/TD] [TD]2889[/TD] [TD]22087[/TD] [TD]25303[/TD] [TD]54%[/TD] [TD]87%[/TD] [TD]89%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]August[/TD] [TD]2780[/TD] [TD]27103[/TD] [TD]3798[/TD] [TD]25466[/TD] [TD]28383[/TD] [TD]70%[/TD] [TD]100%[/TD] [TD]100%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]September[/TD] [TD]3327[/TD] [TD]20555[/TD] [TD]4867[/TD] [TD]19041[/TD] [TD]22956[/TD] [TD]90%[/TD] [TD]75%[/TD] [TD]81%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]October[/TD] [TD]5682[/TD] [TD]14497[/TD] [TD]1285[/TD] [TD]11456[/TD] [TD]16119[/TD] [TD]24%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]57%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] My apologies, but I cannot improve the alignment. The arrivals are in the first two columns. The remainder of the columns relate to the estimated departures. [/QUOTE]
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