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[QUOTE="Deleted member 3000, post: 86503"] I think that there are some false assumptions and inaccurate conclusions being drawn from the data. In 2011, there were 183,366 pilgrims receiving certificates from the Pilgrim Office in Santiago. On the Camino Frances, there were 132,652. Starting in Sarria there were 39,158, and another 10,168 from O Cebreiro, true short-term pilgrims. Starting in St. Jean Pied de Port were 19,416 pilgrims, who were joined in Roncesvalles by another 9,348, with another 4,237 joining in Pamplona, "full" Camino pilgrims. A much smaller number started somewhere in Europe before St. Jean. So the bed competition at the beginning of the Camino Frances was among about 33,000 pilgrims. In the last 100 km, the competition was between 132,652 pilgrims. There might be some information in translating the numbers into a "full camino" equivalent so that one pilgrim walking 35 days was the equivalent of seven pilgrims walking the last five days. That might yield some information on the contention that three walk for every one that gets a certificate because it would standardize the fact that most of those not getting the certificate were weekenders out for a bit of exercise. It would not have any information content on the chances of finding a bed in Arzua in August. The raw data for August 2011 indicate that 10,251 left Sarria, and 29,810 arrived in Santiago on the Camino Frances. That is 1,000 per day with capacity in Monte do Gozo of 400 beds (Eroski). Before Sarria, only 19,000 were looking for a nightly bed. If they were evenly spread over all 30 stages, it would still be 600+ at each stopping point each night. The bottom line: it is very crowded at the end of the Camino in the high season! [/QUOTE]
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