@trecile -
I have been thinking on the same topic.
IMHO, these are the factors that have to be taken into account for when “normal” returns to Spain; not addressed are disease dynamics for any pilgrim’s home country:
Time for the spread of epidemic to reach “peak” – the current math suggests the authorities will recognize that event within about three weeks. (Though I would not expect them to go public immediately.) However, the last several days of case numbers reported from Spain suggest a slowing of the rate of increase. So that puts us out to mid-April.
Time for the existing cases to resolve and infection rates to drop near zero – while anecdotal evidence suggests that this could take a month past the peak, we do not have enough solid data to be sure. But, let’s pretend that the stories are right. Takes us to mid-May but I propose adding a couple of weeks to take into account late-reporting hotspots. So now we are at early June.
Time for a mandated “clean up” period past the peak of the case numbers – it is to be expected that a thorough “Spring cleaning” will be required or recommended by the government. Even without a mandate, it is reasonable that the hospitality industry will police itself in this regard so as to boost tourist confidence that visiting Spain is safe and enjoyable. Maybe a month-long effort which takes us out to early July.
So, yes, I see a September being possible. What I do not know is how much damage will have been done by then to the economic fabric of the Camino. By that I mean, how many albergues, bars, casas, etc will be able to open in a timely manner? I suspect that the "new normal" will look a bit different than our past recent experience.
Only time will tell, I think. I will be watching the Forum avidly for “on the ground” reports as the current unpleasantness subsides.
B