Recent thoughts on walking in September during Covid

[BombayBill]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

 

[texastrekker]

Should I Travel This Year? (Published 2020)

Travel looks very different in 2020. Here are some questions to help you consider the risks to yourself and others if you take a trip.

www.nytimes.com

The NYTimes had a great questionnaire about whether to travel right now-----if you are 65+ or have any health problems the answer is NO. If that does not apply to you then there are others questions to determine whether it is a good idea right now.

 

[scroz]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Should I Travel This Year? (Published 2020)

Travel looks very different in 2020. Here are some questions to help you consider the risks to yourself and others if you take a trip.

www.nytimes.com

The NYTimes had a great questionnaire about whether to travel right now-----if you are 65+ or have any health problems the answer is NO. If that does not apply to you then there are others questions to determine whether it is a good idea right now.

So my thoughts having just reached Santiago today after 2 weeks on the Norte: by the sound of it you seem to be well aware of where the risks are and how to avoid them. It sounds like you are not planning to stay much in albergues (although they are implementing quite strict measures I think there is always more risk if sharing a dorm with strangers than a private room in a pension or hotel). If you avoid going inside bars etc on the way, also I think pretty low risk. I stayed in hotels and pensions and all were pretty impressive in the measures they took and the more upscale they were, the more fastidious (eg the Parador in Vilalba disinfected my passport before inspection at check-in). Masks of course are de riguer everywhere.

The biggest potential obstacle you might face would be locally imposed lockdowns or movement restrictions so I guess it's up to you how much risk in terms of flights, quarantine etc you want to take.

You are definitely not being selfish: Spain's economy is on the brink, visitors are most definitely welcome from that point of view.

 

[BombayBill]

After writing this I happened to pick up a newspaper and read about “doomscrolling”. Now I understand the inability to make rational decisions.

Creating a Healthier Relationship with Social Media

Social media can have a range of effects on well-being — both positive and negative. Our guide offers tips on using social media to benefit you.

www.healthline.com

 

[henrythedog]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Bill

I’m sat here in the English Lake District whilst vast numbers of tourists descend on the area. I may well be safer travelling than staying put.

In your position, I’d go - but I’m just some random bloke with a dog on the internet.

Talk to your family or toss a coin.

David

 

[roamingpaddy]

I too am/ was wresteling with a september trip to finish my camino done in stages. I did some research and saw that galicia,where i will be walking has similar covid numbers to my country ,Ireland.+ I would be more socially isolated there then here in Ireland. Granted I have flight to worry about re safety and a few buses to catch but it looks attractive especially as i am not getting any younger,(66) . So i booked a flight for mid september only it was cancelled,now i am booked for september 26th and hoping. I say inform yourself as much as you can and then if your mind is reasonably at peace,,go for it as I am doing.

 

[OzAnnie]

. (Don't have time to check as I am putting up sauerkraut.)

Not related to the OP’s query but do you have any tips on Sauerkraut? I’ve been involved in a discussion about this topic (just last night !). What’s with all the Sauerkraut - is it popular worldwide ?

 

[Kanga]

@OzAnnie I suggest you take your query to a PM - let's not let the thread get de-railed into discussions about something completely unrelated! Have a heart for the poor old moderators.

 

[Antonius Vaessen]

"Should I go?" to me sounds like the wrong question. To answer this question we should know more about your motivation, your possibilities to postpone your camino and so one. A better question might be "Is it wise to go now ?" Apart from the medical aspects I would take into consideration that a camino in these circumstances will differ a lot from a camino in more "open" circumstances. Allthough I like walking on my own, the meetings in the evenings in albergues, restaurants were to me an essential part of my caminos. Much of the "meetingpossibilities" will be lost on a "covidcamino" I don't know if these aspects are important to you. If that is so and you have the possibility to go in the nearest possible future I would opt for that.

 

[OzAnnie]

@OzAnnie I suggest you take your query to a PM - let's not let the thread get de-railed into discussions about something completely unrelated! Have a heart for the poor old moderators.

Oops. Sorry. Should have thought of that.

 

[gmag]

Of course you can do the Camino.
The current security measures are more than strictly necessary.
Simply B has given one of the most sensible opinions I have read in a long time on Covid. Especially about overuse of the mask and hand washing.
The albergues are subject to long and strict health inspections, ours was less than a week ago (not one but two inspectors of the government of Castilla), and the Civil Guard, also less than a week ago. Everything perfect, everything according to health and safety regulations.
For psychological and health security you can ask the albergues to show you the inspection certificates, and if they don't ... look for a hotel or a pension, although I doubt that there are shelters that dare to open without the inspection documents ...
We have been open since July, we have no problem with Covid, and I only know two cases in Frómista, in the month of March, and both cured, and nothing more since then.
If I felt the danger I would not open, I am at risk age, I simply use common sense and look for the most PROFESSIONAL information...

 

[Former member 60103]

One thing to consider.
Like many, many others on this forum my planning for walking Camino's this year all ended in mid March. When UK lockdown was lifted, after months of being cooped up, I headed out to complete a UK based long distance walk as I just needed to try and retrieve something from the year. But the world was a different place. On the train it was compulsory wearing of a mask for hour's on end, announcements telling people not to sit next or immediately behind or in front of anyone or in the aisle seat. Mask's and hand gel before entering any shop, no standing at the bar for a pint, mask's and hand gel plus social distancing to even enter a cafe to get a coffee. In the one hotel I stayed at the receptionist was behind a perspex screen, the normal in-room coffee, tea etc plus toiletries were all to be selected before going to the room.
In short the experience had changed and, for me, not for the better. The Camino, your Camino will be different with (I suspect) all the elements that contribute to the experience being altered or simply not present.
My Govt has advised against all but essential travel to both Spain and France. No travel Insurance will cover me in those circumstances, but most of all I simply do not want to walk in Spain given the present circumstances, it will not be the same.
I fully intend to return to Spain when this is over, I fully intend to walk more camino's, but it has to "feel right" to be doing so. It has to be safe for both me and those around me.
I write this fully aware that in the scheme of things I have paid a very small price (so far) and all the above is so insignificant compared to the impact this virus has caused to many other people and their lives.
Don.

 

[domigee]

Apart from the medical aspects I would take into consideration that a camino in these circumstances will differ a lot from a camino in more "open" circumstances. Allthough I like walking on my own, the meetings in the evenings in albergues, restaurants were to me an essential part of my caminos. Much of the "meetingpossibilities" will be lost on a "covidcamino"

That was a big factor in my deciding not to go as planned this July.
I didn’t think there was more danger of catching the virus in Spain (I live in the UK) but I had planned on staying in hotels on my own rather than sharing rooms in albergues. That meant staying in bigger cities which normally I walk through as fast as possible. Another pleasure of the Camino in Spain is the interraction with other pilgrims (not whilst walking but sharing meals in the evening for instance) and of course with the locals. That seemed unlikely to happen.
The final worry was catching the virus, say in the airport in London and spreading it around whilst walking before being even aware I had it....
Those were my thought processes whilst trying to make up my mind. I also tried throwing a coin!

 

[VNwalking]

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Only you will know if it's selfish.
I really appreciated the nuanced difference that @simply B has pointed out between a calling and a dawdle in Spain.

In addition to what he has so clearly said (I liked his whole post, not just that bit), there is the consideration of logistics. It's one thing if you can get the Camino overland, or on a short flight - but quite another if you have to take a long international flight (or a couple of them) to get there. Given that the official policy can literally change overnight without any warning, getting stuck in Spain without an affordable way of returning home becomes a very real possibility. I'm remembering the posts from March by @OzAnnie and @Anniesantiago, both of whom were walking when everything changed in a hurry. It sounded like they really had to scramble to get on a flight home.

 

[Ernesto.IT]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

I don't like to repeat myself but please take notice.
Hi, I don't want to put people off but as I care, my advice to would be peregrino is for this year at least, keep clear of it because there is a danger to end up that you some ware on the way and in different region will have to stop for quarantine as the corona 19 has not ended and is flaring up in different spots of Spain. It would be a peaty after you have spent money and time to get there to in the end have to go back home, not having time to quarantine. To be clear this is only my opinion, please do as you like!
Ultreia,
Ernesto

 

[auburnfive]

The government of Canada still advises on their website to avoid all non essential travel to Spain ( and everywhere else), making it impossible to get travel insurance.

 

[tbcan]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?
[/QUOTE
As Canadians we are encouraged to avoid nonessential international travel. Do you have travel insurance? Are you prepared for 14 days quarantine upon your return?

 

[WalkingJane]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Looks good to me. I should add that though I do my best to avoid unnecessary risks , my outlook is that just plain living is not risk free.\; many times we can be unaware of a risk. The entire trip will present possible risks and it looks as if you know well what they are.
So, LIVE!!! And enjoy every step and every breath.

 

[BombayBill]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Thank-you all for your comments. Today I was out hiking reflecting on what to do when I heard this excellent podcast. Ignore the title. It is an explanation on why one should take time to reflect on one's life. It doesn't mention the Camino directly but perhaps is the best summation of many peoples' experience. Really quite good. It is from the Canadian Broadcasting Service. I apologize if it cannot be heard from your area.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/how-our-relationships-with-work-others-and-ourselves-are-inextricably-linked-1.5648017

 

[Lirsy]

‌I'm not going to tell you what to do. I will tell you what I am doing (right or wrong) and how I feel about it.
‌
‌Right now I am walking the "Camino Frances". I am writing to you from the albergue in Torres del Río.
‌
‌I think it is clear that if I do it is because I thought it was the right thing to do.
‌
‌How I feel? I feel quite safe (always within the uncertainty of the situation). I am truly convinced that walking the Camino is the safest alternative I had for my vacation.
‌
‌It is clear that if I lock myself at home it would be safer, but I really believe that my life on the Camino is safer than my life at home living a semi-normal life.
‌
‌Logistical problems: Basically I do not find any logistical problems. The only problem is, I don't like to make reservations and now I consider safer to phone the albergues the night before to make sure they are open. The price of the albergues has risen a bit (2 euros?) And you cannot cook in the albergue. 90% of the albergues are open.
‌
‌Safety measures: You have to wear a mask when you are around other people. This basically involves wearing a mask when crossing a city, walking through a city, and inside the albergue. Groups of more than 10 people are not allowed.
‌
‌I do not know. I think this is the basic information. As I mentioned, I am not saying that it is right or wrong. I say what I am doing and how I feel.

 

[domigee]

The government of Canada still advises on their website to avoid all non essential travel to Spain ( and everywhere else), making it impossible to get travel insurance.

That’s a very good point. My daughter lives in Canada and they are advised not to travel anywhere...

 

[domigee]

‌I'm not going to tell you what to do. I will tell you what I am doing (right or wrong) and how I feel about it.
‌
‌Right now I am walking the "Camino Frances". I am writing to you from the albergue in Torres del Río.
‌
‌I think it is clear that if I do it is because I thought it was the right thing to do.
‌
‌How I feel? I feel quite safe (always within the uncertainty of the situation). I am truly convinced that walking the Camino is the safest alternative I had for my vacation.
‌
‌It is clear that if I lock myself at home it would be safer, but I really believe that my life on the Camino is safer than my life at home living a semi-normal life.
‌
‌Logistical problems: Basically I do not find any logistical problems. The only problem is, I don't like to make reservations and now I consider safer to phone the albergues the night before to make sure they are open. The price of the albergues has risen a bit (2 euros?) And you cannot cook in the albergue. 90% of the albergues are open.
‌
‌Safety measures: You have to wear a mask when you are around other people. This basically involves wearing a mask when crossing a city, walking through a city, and inside the albergue. Groups of more than 10 people are not allowed.
‌
‌I do not know. I think this is the basic information. As I mentioned, I am not saying that it is right or wrong. I say what I am doing and how I feel.

Buen camino

 

[BombayBill]

The government of Canada still advises on their website to avoid all non essential travel to Spain ( and everywhere else), making it impossible to get travel insurance.

I checked into this. Medipac Insurance Canada advises they will cover you.

 

[Crosscheck]

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

If everyone in the world practiced these distancing measures we would be in much better shape and closer to a conclusion to this pandemic. Lessor efforts, of others, coupled with travel is another story.

Also, I feel that many people are more worried about contracting covid-19 rather than spreading covid-19.

 

[C clearly]

I feel that many people are more worried about contracting covid-19 rather than spreading covid-19.

Mea culpa. I think it is a natural instinct. Through education about my own safety AND the protection of others, I try to maintain physical distancing and wear a mask as appropriate. But I admit that my own protection is what I think about first, and I am not ashamed to admit it.

 

[Albertagirl]

Mea culpa. I think it is a natural instinct. Through education about my own safety AND the protection of others, I try to maintain physical distancing and wear a mask as appropriate. But I admit that my own protection is what I think about first, and I am not ashamed to admit it.

Well, I think that those who are afraid of getting the virus and take precautions to avoid doing so are less likely to get the virus, and cannot spread it unless they first get it. And I think that the many young people who have recently contracted and spread the virus in your province and mine, were not adequately afraid of their getting it. So you are doing more to protect me than someone who may claim not to wish to spread it to others but is not highly aware of what she or he needs to do for self-protection.

 

[Crosscheck]

Mea culpa. I think it is a natural instinct. Through education about my own safety AND the protection of others, I try to maintain physical distancing and wear a mask as appropriate. But I admit that my own protection is what I think about first, and I am not ashamed to admit it.

What concerns me is that some justify travelling to another location as safer than their respective homes, perpetuating the virus. If everyone stayed home for a while things would improve

 

[KJFSophie]

What always weighs heavily in my decision making process, is not the facts surrounding my own behavior but the unknowns surrounding the behaviors of others. I liken it to my driving in the snowy New England (USA ) hard winters...I trust my driving skills, I trust the sturdiness of my car...but I don't trust those other drivers who are out on the streets with no skills to drive safely in snow, balding tires, wreckless driving behaviors. I would be safe, alone on the roads...but with other less equipped or inconsiderate drivers?
I feel the Camino will hold too many similar unknowns, too many threats from others who may not have had the same education on the virus, who may come from countries that were not as significantly affected, who may have a less than cautious view, who may reject the need to keep others safe...All we are left with is the faith in our own behaviors and the giant unknown about the behaviors of others. Cancelling my trek was the most difficult decision I had to make and my heart longs to go...It will be IN HIS TIME.

 

[Crosscheck]

What always weighs heavily in my decision making process, is not the facts surrounding my own behavior but the unknowns surrounding the behaviors of others. I liken it to my driving in the snowy New England (USA ) hard winters...I trust my driving skills, I trust the sturdiness of my car...but I don't trust those other drivers who are out on the streets with no skills to drive safely in snow, balding tires, wreckless driving behaviors. I would be safe, alone on the roads...but with other less equipped or inconsiderate drivers?
I feel the Camino will hold too many similar unknowns, too many threats from others who may not have had the same education on the virus, who may come from countries that were not as significantly affected, who may have a less than cautious view, who may reject the need to keep others safe...All we are left with is the faith in our own behaviors and the giant unknown about the behaviors of others. Cancelling my trek was the most difficult decision I had to make and my heart longs to go...It will be IN HIS TIME.

I live in Truckee, CA and totally relate to your winter driving analogy. A couple of days a year I don't go to work despite the fact I drive a 4wd vehicle with snow tires all the way around. I can get just about anywhere but I cannot trust some others on the road.

Living in an incredible place in the Sierras has the same risks as the people have living along the camino. So I have empathy for those living there. Here in Truckee (a tourist destination) our hospital publishes covids infection counts on a daily basis and our free covid testing location has a line in front every morning.

 

[ChesterChick]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

While I totally understand your desire to walk the Camino in September there are a couple of things I think you should consider. I also an Canadian and it is my understanding that the level 3 travel advisory issued by the federal government in March is still in effect. Therefore you can’t get travel insurance to cover you if you get Covid 19 - it is a risk that personally I wouldn’t take. Also if you do go the experience will not be the exhilarating experience that it once was - I remember my first Camino and the free wheeling spirit of meeting so many different people, sharing meals, accommodations and so on - It was electric. Sadly, all that is gone for the foreseeable future. The decision of course, is yours to make - but my free advice is to hold off Until it will be a more enjoyable adventure. Full disclosure - I had plans to go in October to do my third Camino (the Primitivo) but have cancelLed.

 

[peterjohn1960]

Simple, NO CAMINO, stay at home, I am in the U.K., I was suppose to start the Camino 12 September this year but cancelled weeks ago, walking the Camino at this time is stupid, irresponsible and dangerous, stay safe at home, the Camino will still be there long after COVID-19 has been controlled.

 

[VNwalking]

Also, I feel that many people are more worried about contracting covid-19 rather than spreading covid-19.

But I admit that my own protection is what I think about first, and I am not ashamed to admit it.

I get this sense too, @Crosscheck Rider, and given the self-centered individualist focus of our society, that's hardly a surprise. But when we protect ourself we're protecting others and vice versa. So no shame, if you're taking care.

 

[Dave W96]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

 

[Dave W96]

To go or not has to be only your decision but do not get too stressed in the process. I am in the age group where my friends have started to fall off their perches. I feel I still have a couple of Caminos in the tank and with no apparent heath problems I consulted the family. My son a surgeon in a busy NHS hospital a his wife hospital physician, hence both have experience of Covid since the beginning. Their advice: always be aware of where you are; mask up; keep your distance and above all wash hands. Also keep a hand sanitizer in your pocket for other times you may need it.
I shall go in September if travel plans are not cancelled. You do not have to follow my example but if you decide to go: Buen Camino enjoy the life you have.

 

[bergmannfamily]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

My wife and I had hoped to do the Camino Frances this fall. Our tickets were bought and hotels were booked. Then the airline cancelled our flight two weeks ago and gave us no option to reschedule this year (Air Canada). I am an ER doctor, so for us walking the Camino would have been less dangerous than going to work here in Canada.
For this autumn we are going to hike the mountain parks of Jasper, Banff, and Waterton. Hopefully we can rebook everything for next fall.
I think the biggest question for travel for us as Canadians is that if you get COVID and need treatment you will not be helped by any insurance company, and an air medivac back to Canada would be very difficult as most sick COVID persons have difficulty to maintain oxygen levels, thus sickness would require a prolonged Spanish hospitalization. I think if you are reasonably young (under 60-ish), healthy, and not overweight, getting COVID may only cause you to have flu symptoms for a week or two, but likely things will go well. The trickiest part is going to be travel to the Camino. Airlines, buses and trains are more crowded than they should be. Be meticulous about keeping your "bubble" clean. I am not much of a mask believer, unless it is a sealed respirator with hood and sealed gown, but for what it is worth wear a N95 mask if you can, and use gallons of soap and water, which is much better than alcohol sanitizer.
We wish you a great Camino, while we wait for our hoped for trip next year.

 

[RQM]

I am trying to decide on walking in September. I thought I'd write this post in order to formally organize my thinking. So it's not presented as an argument or to disagree with others but just some loosely organized thoughts to which I welcome any replies.

I live in a small highly touristed town in Canada. Our particular province has a high contagion rate compared to the rest of Canada. My daughter continues to work in a restaurant and I continue to see friends, some of whom have compromised health. I continue to visit my mother who lives in a care facility.

Why? My daughter's facility is extremely careful. People eat outside, well spaced apart and the staff are all masked. They are rigorous in following the safety guidelines. My friends and I share a glass now and again. We sit outside or well spaced apart. We avoid close contact. My compromised friends have a very small tight bubble. We are even more careful when we meet on a limited basis. I meet my mother only outside, in an area which is cleaned after every visit.

We all have been wearing masks for months even before it was required. We avoid crowds, we are careful to respect other's needs should we have to get close.

I know that in my province the high contagion rate is due to outbreaks in food processing facilities or to very particular bars where young people have skirted the rules, or they have been in faith communities with a high degree of group interaction. Therefore we feel we can continue to live with a normal degree of caution.

When I read the news about Canada or Spain the facts are presented in broad strokes with not much nuance. It makes it hard to make rational decisions. This is how I feel at the present ---

Covid generally spreads thru close prolonged contact. It is rarely spread thru surface contact. In Spain it is concentrated in the larger cities, in groups of agricultural workers, and in holiday hot spots in bars. On the Camino I will be avoiding indoor gatherings, I will be well isolated on the trail for most of the day. At night I will be eating outside and carefully choosing where I sleep. I will wear a mask whenever I have to enter a premise, in any crowded situation, and when anyone asks me too.

Should I go? Or is this just a selfish wish?

Hi
GO GO GO!!! Yes Go.
Don’t listen to anyone with negative comments.

I am Canadian Also. I just finished Camino Francis. All is ok here to do the Camino .

I can offer these comments that are not broad strokes and come from my time in the last 5 weeks. (I’m currently still in sprint )

Getting into Spain is no problem for Canadian. It is based on passport, NOT where you have been. One would need to go online to the Spain health registry and get the QR code they will email to you. They ask for this at he plane and in Spain. The form asks where you have been.... I had been in USA prior but that did not affect the approval.

I flew to France. France is even easier than get into.. I’m on my way there now for a continued vacation... again, Canadian passport..

On the Camino, there are not many people. Mostly Spanish and French... masks to be worn everywhere always except while walking the Camino, no one wears a mask, put the mask on when approaching and walking into and around the villages. You don’t need to wear a mask when sitting down to eat or drink. Technically just drinking, One needs to wear the mask, take it off to sip, then back on.... but no one goes to this extent.... all this applies to indoors and outdoors..... most people here eat outdoors as im
Sure you know.

Albergue. I avoided the dorm rooms or shared rooms, simply because of COVID.... I camped, or chose private room (privateroom 35euro vs 10 euro for a bed)... that being said, there are not a lot of people do it’s not crowded in them.... I stayed some nights in shared rooms and seemed ok. Everyone wore masks but I had a sense that this was pushing it a bit.

I never made a reservation because there are few people and I just picked a place in the village I walked into... however, some very small villages I saw that many Albergue were closed completely for the year.

Bring spare masks. I lost 4 of them ... or buy the cool styled Camino mask that are sold on the way

Don’t bring hand sanitizer ... it’s EVERYWHERE !!!

In short, you should go defiantly. The fact that it’s not crowded brings a lot of peace. Also, for me, it was kind of like I was removed from the COVID scene.

RQM

 

[RQM]

While I totally understand your desire to walk the Camino in September there are a couple of things I think you should consider. I also an Canadian and it is my understanding that the level 3 travel advisory issued by the federal government in March is still in effect. Therefore you can’t get travel insurance to cover you if you get Covid 19 - it is a risk that personally I wouldn’t take. Also if you do go the experience will not be the exhilarating experience that it once was - I remember my first Camino and the free wheeling spirit of meeting so many different people, sharing meals, accommodations and so on - It was electric. Sadly, all that is gone for the foreseeable future. The decision of course, is yours to make - but my free advice is to hold off Until it will be a more enjoyable adventure. Full disclosure - I had plans to go in October to do my third Camino (the Primitivo) but

While I totally understand your desire to walk the Camino in September there are a couple of things I think you should consider. I also an Canadian and it is my understanding that the level 3 travel advisory issued by the federal government in March is still in effect. Therefore you can’t get travel insurance to cover you if you get Covid 19 - it is a risk that personally I wouldn’t take. Also if you do go the experience will not be the exhilarating experience that it once was - I remember my first Camino and the free wheeling spirit of meeting so many different people, sharing meals, accommodations and so on - It was electric. Sadly, all that is gone for the foreseeable future. The decision of course, is yours to make - but my free advice is to hold off Until it will be a more enjoyable adventure. Full disclosure - I had plans to go in October to do my third Camino (the Primitivo) but have cancelLed.

One CAN get insurance .
Also, how can one make a comparison to other years and say the Camino now will not be as exilerating if they have not walked this year.
I walked in 2017 and this year.... it’s just as exilerating

I would suggest reading the posts of people who are actually out here or who have done it in the last couple months.
It’s fine... do it !!

 

[simply B]

Not related to the OP’s query but do you have any tips on Sauerkraut? I’ve been involved in a discussion about this topic (just last night !). What’s with all the Sauerkraut - is it popular worldwide ?

I'll PM you!

 

[Marbe2]

It was difficult for me to cancel our camino in early March, at the last minute, before the travel ban. However, I know it was the right decision. If you are not from Spain, respectfully, consider The Camino non-essential travel....no matter how careful and considerate you are. Hike in your own country. For now plan a trip in Canada...it has many great hiking trails....
If we all try to limit our mobility, avoiding public transportion and interaction as much as possible we will contribute to a lower positivity rate and save lives. Can we not wait for a safe mitigating theraputic medication or a vaccine? Stay the course!

 

[Ernesto.IT]

Hi
GO GO GO!!! Yes Go.
Don’t listen to anyone with negative comments.

I am Canadian Also. I just finished Camino Francis. All is ok here to do the Camino .

I can offer these comments that are not broad strokes and come from my time in the last 5 weeks. (I’m currently still in sprint )

Getting into Spain is no problem for Canadian. It is based on passport, NOT where you have been. One would need to go online to the Spain health registry and get the QR code they will email to you. They ask for this at he plane and in Spain. The form asks where you have been.... I had been in USA prior but that did not affect the approval.

I flew to France. France is even easier than get into.. I’m on my way there now for a continued vacation... again, Canadian passport..

On the Camino, there are not many people. Mostly Spanish and French... masks to be worn everywhere always except while walking the Camino, no one wears a mask, put the mask on when approaching and walking into and around the villages. You don’t need to wear a mask when sitting down to eat or drink. Technically just drinking, One needs to wear the mask, take it off to sip, then back on.... but no one goes to this extent.... all this applies to indoors and outdoors..... most people here eat outdoors as im
Sure you know.

Albergue. I avoided the dorm rooms or shared rooms, simply because of COVID.... I camped, or chose private room (privateroom 35euro vs 10 euro for a bed)... that being said, there are not a lot of people do it’s not crowded in them.... I stayed some nights in shared rooms and seemed ok. Everyone wore masks but I had a sense that this was pushing it a bit.

I never made a reservation because there are few people and I just picked a place in the village I walked into... however, some very small villages I saw that many Albergue were closed completely for the year.

Bring spare masks. I lost 4 of them ... or buy the cool styled Camino mask that are sold on the way

Don’t bring hand sanitizer ... it’s EVERYWHERE !!!

In short, you should go defiantly. The fact that it’s not crowded brings a lot of peace. Also, for me, it was kind of like I was removed from the COVID scene.

RQM

Yes Go

don't worry about the COVID 19, there is no need to rush, you don't see it but there is plenty for everyone, Ultreia!

 

[Marbe2]

Just posted link to Ivar’s thread! He is not recommending travel to Spain in Sept! He should know!

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/%F0%9F%93%B9if-it-was-me-i-would-not-walk-the-camino-in-september.68354/

 

[trecile]

Yes Go

don't worry about the COVID 19, there is no need to rush, you don't see it but there is plenty for everyone, Ultreia!

Are you saying that there is plenty of Covid-19 for everyone??

 

[Camino Chrissy]

Ivar has put out a new video today and is advising pilgrims to avoid walking the Caminos in Spain in September as covid cases are on the rise.

 

[mjal]

@mjal -

Regarding CV-19, CDC indicates an overall CFR of less than 0.26% - not arguing with NHS as this is USA-centric data but that happens to be where I live.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The attached file is a slog but you needn't go past Figure 1 on the 3rd page of the document. Use of a rule and pencil indicates about 260 deaths per 100,000 people or 0.26%...pretty much the same as current.

What is missing from policy analyses is qualitative info. The current bug seems to be most ferocious to people over 65 (and I am in that esteemed group) whereas the prior pandemics seemed to be more "equal opportunity" killers. The pandemic of 1918-1920, (mistakenly named "Spanish flu" though it had NO connection to Spain whatsoever) was really merciless to the young and healthy. There is plenty of public info for the interested to review. (This thread is not a lecture hall, eh?)

Bottom line (for me personally, anyway) the common flu viruses have vaccines available to combat them...and they are still here!

There has never been a successful human coronavirus vaccine (and they have been researched for 50 years). It is up to me to learn to live with it and/or die from it.

Apologies for a too-long post for the uninterested but I thought @mjal raised an honest question and deserved a response.

B

I find myself confused ; have you edited your post and inadvertently removed the information that the attachment relates to various flu pandemics? Your note re a "death rate" of 0.26% presumably references the 1957 (Asian) flu which you then say is "much the same as current" ; does this mean the same rate as Covid-19? It is essentially the same as the UK rate of 0.2% for Asian flu which I quoted.

CDC rates (USA) : that organisation did indeed have a view that IFR for Covid-19 was 0.26% but as far as I know it then revised this to 0.65%.

Your link to the CDC planning document : Table 1 in this suggests various scenarios with several IFRs : 0.5% to 0.8% ending with "current best estimate" of ...0.65%. These figures are from a link in the planning document.

Obtaining correct IFRs is immensely difficult but my opinion is that the best figures (for the moment) are derived from a randomly-selected population subjected to antibody studies e.g. the Imperial College research and also the similar Spanish paper. IFR in these was around 0.8% to 1.1% or so.

For those not yet rendered unconscious by detail, the Imperial reference is in my previous post (#25) and here is the Spanish reference (again).

Antibody study shows just 5% of Spaniards have contracted the coronavirus

Preliminary findings of the survey reveal that over 90% of infections have gone undetected by the healthcare system

english.elpais.com

This is the original report ; there are later ones with very similar results.

Last but not least...what about cellular (T-cell) immunity? Short answer : we do not (yet) know just how this fits in to the overall picture. It may mean that "herd immunity" is closer than it presently seems but we have no real evidence yet to allow us to state this.

 

[Richmond Gardner]

Hi
GO GO GO!!! Yes Go.
Don’t listen to anyone with negative comments.

I am Canadian Also. I just finished Camino Francis. All is ok here to do the Camino .

I can offer these comments that are not broad strokes and come from my time in the last 5 weeks. (I’m currently still in sprint )

Getting into Spain is no problem for Canadian. It is based on passport, NOT where you have been. One would need to go online to the Spain health registry and get the QR code they will email to you. They ask for this at he plane and in Spain. The form asks where you have been.... I had been in USA prior but that did not affect the approval.

I flew to France. France is even easier than get into.. I’m on my way there now for a continued vacation... again, Canadian passport..

On the Camino, there are not many people. Mostly Spanish and French... masks to be worn everywhere always except while walking the Camino, no one wears a mask, put the mask on when approaching and walking into and around the villages. You don’t need to wear a mask when sitting down to eat or drink. Technically just drinking, One needs to wear the mask, take it off to sip, then back on.... but no one goes to this extent.... all this applies to indoors and outdoors..... most people here eat outdoors as im
Sure you know.

Albergue. I avoided the dorm rooms or shared rooms, simply because of COVID.... I camped, or chose private room (privateroom 35euro vs 10 euro for a bed)... that being said, there are not a lot of people do it’s not crowded in them.... I stayed some nights in shared rooms and seemed ok. Everyone wore masks but I had a sense that this was pushing it a bit.

I never made a reservation because there are few people and I just picked a place in the village I walked into... however, some very small villages I saw that many Albergue were closed completely for the year.

Bring spare masks. I lost 4 of them ... or buy the cool styled Camino mask that are sold on the way

Don’t bring hand sanitizer ... it’s EVERYWHERE !!!

In short, you should go defiantly. The fact that it’s not crowded brings a lot of peace. Also, for me, it was kind of like I was removed from the COVID scene.

RQM

You need a leash...and a handler with some consideration

 

[VNwalking]

Here we go again with all the opinions.
There are a few here that I won't discuss or quote, not wanting to give them any more oxygen than they already have.

Please take care of each other and yourselves, everyone. And gracias for your good sense, @ivar:

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/%F0%9F%93%B9if-it-was-me-i-would-not-walk-the-camino-in-september.68354/

 

[Richmond Gardner]

Here we go again with all the opinions.
There are a few here that I won't discuss or quote, not wanting to give them any more oxygen than they already have.

Please take care of each other and yourselves, everyone. And gracias for your good sense, @ivar:

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/%F0%9F%93%B9if-it-was-me-i-would-not-walk-the-camino-in-september.68354/

 

[Richmond Gardner]

Got a little testy there, so apologies for the rancor. I hope we can all just remember to consider everyone’s health

 

[simply B]

I find myself confused ; have you edited your post and inadvertently removed the information that the attachment relates to various flu pandemics? Your note re a "death rate" of 0.26% presumably references the 1957 (Asian) flu which you then say is "much the same as current" ; does this mean the same rate as Covid-19? It is essentially the same as the UK rate of 0.2% for Asian flu which I quoted.

CDC rates (USA) : that organisation did indeed have a view that IFR for Covid-19 was 0.26% but as far as I know it then revised this to 0.65%.

Your link to the CDC planning document : Table 1 in this suggests various scenarios with several IFRs : 0.5% to 0.8% ending with "current best estimate" of ...0.65%. These figures are from a link in the planning document.

Obtaining correct IFRs is immensely difficult but my opinion is that the best figures (for the moment) are derived from a randomly-selected population subjected to antibody studies e.g. the Imperial College research and also the similar Spanish paper. IFR in these was around 0.8% to 1.1% or so.

For those not yet rendered unconscious by detail, the Imperial reference is in my previous post (#25) and here is the Spanish reference (again).

Antibody study shows just 5% of Spaniards have contracted the coronavirus

Preliminary findings of the survey reveal that over 90% of infections have gone undetected by the healthcare system

english.elpais.com

This is the original report ; there are later ones with very similar results.

Last but not least...what about cellular (T-cell) immunity? Short answer : we do not (yet) know just how this fits in to the overall picture. It may mean that "herd immunity" is closer than it presently seems but we have no real evidence yet to allow us to state this.

@mjal -

I have not edited my post.

What I presented is what I can gather which is co-synchronous with my experience from the years past. Allow me a day to come back to you as I decipher your comment...right now, I am harvesting the garden's bounty.

B

PS. T-cell immunity is under-rated in current analyses.

 

[Ernesto.IT]

Are you saying that there is plenty of Covid-19 for everyone??

yes if you are looking for it

 

[mjal]

@mjal -

I have not edited my post.

What I presented is what I can gather which is co-synchronous with my experience from the years past. Allow me a day to come back to you as I decipher your comment...right now, I am harvesting the garden's bounty.

B

PS. T-cell immunity is under-rated in current analyses.

Just to clarify : I was not implying that you had edited your post after "publication" but that perhaps , while marshalling your thoughts, you had re-jigged some phrases and accidentally removed the information re the attachment.
Agreed re T-cell immunity : the problem, as I understand it, is that the measurement is slow/complex/expensive so not suited to large-scale use.

 

[Kanga]

The moderators of the forum are not in a position to verify or peer review medical advice or opinions. Consequently we have, from the beginning of this pandemic, allowed links to government advice and officially recognised data. And only that.

I have deleted a number of posts. Because Ivar's advice of today supersedes the views in this thread, I am closing it.