This Excel workbook models published pilgrim statistics from the Pilgrim Office in Santiago de Compostela to estimate daily pilgrim flows across the Camino Frances over the course of a year. The modelled figures are experimental only, and are open to discussion and input from other pilgrims. Although based upon the published figures, these are NOT official Pilgrim Office statistics.
The model shows how different parts of the Camino Frances experience proportionately higher numbers of pilgrims at different times of year from others. It does not attempt to estimate actual number of pilgrims in a certain location, but rather how many there are compared to average.
There are a number of important caveats to be aware of, including:
- The figures used to develop the model are the numbers of pilgrims who arrived in Santiago having started walking on the Camino Frances between St Jean Pied de Port and Santiago. It does not include pilgrims starting further back in France, pilgrims joining the Camino Frances from other routes, or those from unspecific starting points (e.g. 'the rest of Navarra'), who may or may not have travelled this route.
- The published Pilgrim Office figures showing pilgrims' starting points are only published on a monthly basis. This model converts them to daily figures using a series of averages and smoothing techniques. These techniques are quite basic, and do not take into account calendar events such as Christmas or Easter, that may cause significant fluctuations in numbers within periods shorter than a month.
- These figures do not take into account changes in the proportion of facilities (e.g. albergues, beds etc) available to pilgrims. As such it is not an indicator of how 'busy' the Camino is in terms of accessing these things.
- The model assumes a fairly 'typical' Camino duration of 33 days. The towns used to represent the stopping points should be viewed as representative of a wider area.
- The calculation sheets in the workbook are protected (except for the one containing the interactive charts), but are left visible for comment on the method used and suggestions for improvement or development. These should not be used in isolation.