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Do not worry Tom. I started out from San Jean PdP on the 10th September last year without any bookings whatsoever. I only walked as far as Hornillos then turned back to Burgos and travelled home. In the 14 days I only had a slight problem at Logrono. This was because they had some days of fiesta...
To answer your questions:
1. Yes SJPdP to Roncesvalles is the toughest day
2. Strenuous but doable - certainly with your training.
3. No I carried it, and it was raining, windy and cold last September. ( unfortunately that meant I could not enjoy the scenery)
4. Not with your training but if you...
Your packing list seems quite good. I'm not sure why you removed the towel. You will certainly need something to dry yourself with. Also I would leave 3 pairs of socks but only one liner. Perhaps remove the long sleeved Merino top, you have the shirt with long sleeves. Most important of all...
I do not remember noticing the road bridge when I passed that way in September. Like you said, I just followed the path and used the stepping stones but they were dry and quite safe at the time.
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