For 2024 Pilgrims: €50,- donation = 1 year with no ads on the forum + 90% off any 2024 Guide. More here. (Discount code sent to you by Private Message after your donation) |
---|
It will likely be twice as busy on any given day during the peak pilgrim season, in 2021 as in 2019. The Jacobeo, the regional organization that regulates most secular things related to the Camino estimates (IIRC) about 400,000 pilgrims for the 2021 Holy Year. I suggest
AND, these figures, as you stated above, only include those who obtained a Compostela.It will likely be twice as busy on any given day during the peak pilgrim season, in 2021 as in 2019. The Jacobeo, the regional organization that regulates most secular things related to the Camino estimates (IIRC) about 400,000 pilgrims for the 2021 Holy Year. I suggest this is very conservative.
My estimates, based on simple mathematical analysis of past years, and the relationship to interspersed Holy Years, suggests a rather higher figure.
In 2018, some 327,000 actual pilgrims issued Compostelas. But the closure of the Cathedral and loss of the Botafumeiro for the entire year (2019) MIGHT have had a diminishing effect on some pilgrim groups.
Pilgrim groups will frequently PAY the Cathedral for the Botafumeiro to be flown when their group is in attendance at a specific Pilgrim Mass. No Botafumeiro...no groups... or fewer groups... I believe this attenuated the annual numbers in 2019 and will again in 2020.
My original estimate for 2019 was about 375,000. But the above event may have reduced pilgrim arrivals a lot. So, right now, the actual number will be released next month I think, will be in the area of 340-350,000. We shall see. Depending on that result I may revise my estimates a bit.
As it stands, my reconsidered 2020 estimate (based on the above adjustments) is now about 400,000, instead of my previous estimate of 475,000. Again this is because the Cathedral will remain mostly closed, and the Botafumeiro unused until the start of the Holy Year. This coincides with the start of the 20201 Liturgical Year and Holy Year in late 2020, on the first Sunday of Advent. So, if I was correct about group suppression, the same reduced numbers of pilgrim arrivals will be in effect for 2020.
On the other hand, consider that this almost two-year absence of the Botafumeiro in action at the opened Cathedral while renovations are being completed necessarily means that there is building a pent-up demand, especially among groups. If they were planning to go on Camino as a group and pay to see the Botafumeiro, they necessarily need to wait until the 2021 season, or later.
Hence, there could be a surge in 2021 arrivals, especially among groups. These increased arrivals will be particularly acute during the period from Semana Santa / Holy Week 2021 through the end of October 2021.
According to Google, in 2021, Easter falls early, on 4 April, 2021. this means that Semana Santa starts one week earlier on Palm Sunday, 28 March, 2021.
Hence, if you are planning a Camino during the period late March - October 2021, carefully consider your options as to route. Do make advance accommodation reservations. And do remain flexible. The Camino Frances will be the most heavily used route. Hence, accommodations will likely be relatively more difficult along this, the most popular route.
So, having considered the reduction effect of the Botafumeiro not being on offer for most all of 2020, but back online and flying for all of 2021, my revised 2021 Holy Year estimate is now about 600,000, with a full 30 percent of this number arriving in groups. It was originally a range from a low of 650k to about 725k.
We shall see who is closer, the Jacobeo or me...stay tuned...
My estimates, based on simple mathematical analysis of past years, and the relationship to interspersed Holy Years, suggests a rather higher figure.
In 2018, some 327,000 actual pilgrims issued Compostelas. But the closure of the Cathedral and loss of the Botafumeiro for the entire year (2019) MIGHT have had a diminishing effect on some pilgrim groups.
Pilgrim groups will frequently PAY the Cathedral for the Botafumeiro to be flown when their group is in attendance at a specific Pilgrim Mass. No Botafumeiro...no groups... or fewer groups... I believe this attenuated the annual numbers in 2019 and will again in 2020.
My original estimate for 2019 was about 375,000. But the above event may have reduced pilgrim arrivals a lot. So, right now, the actual number will be released next month I think, will be in the area of 340-350,000. We shall see. Depending on that result I may revise my estimates a bit.
As it stands, my reconsidered 2020 estimate (based on the above adjustments) is now about 400,000, instead of my previous estimate of 475,000. Again this is because the Cathedral will remain mostly closed, and the Botafumeiro unused until the start of the Holy Year. This coincides with the start of the 20201 Liturgical Year and Holy Year in late 2020, on the first Sunday of Advent. So, if I was correct about group suppression, the same reduced numbers of pilgrim arrivals will be in effect for 2020.
On the other hand, consider that this almost two-year absence of the Botafumeiro in action at the opened Cathedral while renovations are being completed necessarily means that there is building a pent-up demand, especially among groups. If they were planning to go on Camino as a group and pay to see the Botafumeiro, they necessarily need to wait until the 2021 season, or later.
Hence, there could be a surge in 2021 arrivals, especially among groups. These increased arrivals will be particularly acute during the period from Semana Santa / Holy Week 2021 through the end of October 2021.
According to Google, in 2021, Easter falls early, on 4 April, 2021. this means that Semana Santa starts one week earlier on Palm Sunday, 28 March, 2021.
Hence, if you are planning a Camino during the period late March - October 2021, carefully consider your options as to route. Do make advance accommodation reservations. And do remain flexible. The Camino Frances will be the most heavily used route. Hence, accommodations will likely be relatively more difficult along this, the most popular route.
So, having considered the reduction effect of the Botafumeiro not being on offer for most all of 2020, but back online and flying for all of 2021, my revised 2021 Holy Year estimate is now about 600,000, with a full 30 percent of this number arriving in groups. It was originally a range from a low of 650k to about 725k.
We shall see who is closer, the Jacobeo or me...stay tuned...
Add to these astonishing numbers, the factor for pilgrims who don't bother to get Compostelas. Perhaps, a third of those on various caminos. If you already have a Compostela, you may not strategize getting another; particularly if there is a number to get, etc... or, those who don't finish. Compostela or not, they are all on the trails.It will likely be twice as busy on any given day during the peak pilgrim season, in 2021 as in 2019. The Jacobeo, the regional organization that regulates most secular things related to the Camino estimates (IIRC) about 400,000 pilgrims for the 2021 Holy Year. I suggest this is very conservative.
My estimates, based on simple mathematical analysis of past years, and the relationship to interspersed Holy Years, suggests a rather higher figure.
In 2018, some 327,000 actual pilgrims issued Compostelas. But the closure of the Cathedral and loss of the Botafumeiro for the entire year (2019) MIGHT have had a diminishing effect on some pilgrim groups.
Pilgrim groups will frequently PAY the Cathedral for the Botafumeiro to be flown when their group is in attendance at a specific Pilgrim Mass. No Botafumeiro...no groups... or fewer groups... I believe this attenuated the annual numbers in 2019 and will again in 2020.
My original estimate for 2019 was about 375,000. But the above event may have reduced pilgrim arrivals a lot. So, right now, the actual number will be released next month I think, will be in the area of 340-350,000. We shall see. Depending on that result I may revise my estimates a bit.
As it stands, my reconsidered 2020 estimate (based on the above adjustments) is now about 400,000, instead of my previous estimate of 475,000. Again this is because the Cathedral will remain mostly closed, and the Botafumeiro unused until the start of the Holy Year. This coincides with the start of the 20201 Liturgical Year and Holy Year in late 2020, on the first Sunday of Advent. So, if I was correct about group suppression, the same reduced numbers of pilgrim arrivals will be in effect for 2020.
On the other hand, consider that this almost two-year absence of the Botafumeiro in action at the opened Cathedral while renovations are being completed necessarily means that there is building a pent-up demand, especially among groups. If they were planning to go on Camino as a group and pay to see the Botafumeiro, they necessarily need to wait until the 2021 season, or later.
Hence, there could be a surge in 2021 arrivals, especially among groups. These increased arrivals will be particularly acute during the period from Semana Santa / Holy Week 2021 through the end of October 2021.
According to Google, in 2021, Easter falls early, on 4 April, 2021. this means that Semana Santa starts one week earlier on Palm Sunday, 28 March, 2021.
Hence, if you are planning a Camino during the period late March - October 2021, carefully consider your options as to route. Do make advance accommodation reservations. And do remain flexible. The Camino Frances will be the most heavily used route. Hence, accommodations will likely be relatively more difficult along this, the most popular route.
So, having considered the reduction effect of the Botafumeiro not being on offer for most all of 2020, but back online and flying for all of 2021, my revised 2021 Holy Year estimate is now about 600,000, with a full 30 percent of this number arriving in groups. It was originally a range from a low of 650k to about 725k.
We shall see who is closer, the Jacobeo or me...stay tuned...
A sound move...but, make reservations!I was planning to walk my first Camino from early September 2021, but because of the crowds I've changed that now to late September. Hopefully the majority will have started by then. I have put my name forward to volunteer at an albergue in SJPDP for 2 weeks before I leave.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?