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JavierLeon

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    • JavierLeon
      JavierLeon replied to the thread Weather site.
      Some time ago I built a page to show the 5 day forecast in the cities of different caminos. In any case, as a fellow pilgrim indicated, it is best to enjoy the day looking out the window when you wake up. Buen Camino,
    • JavierLeon
      I'm seeing more distance on the weekends than the rest but I think it's because of the growing trend this year.... I was more doubtful that it would do well with Easter but it has also predicted it quite well. regarding elections... give me...
    • JavierLeon
      Looks like the pilgrims office is cheating by adding a few pilgrims each day. ;) Do you have any election prediction algorithms?
    • JavierLeon
      YTD test to see if it works well with seasonality: and the most important features:
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      • 1716633947755.png
    • JavierLeon
      First tests using catBoost using as training data from 2003 to 2024-05-01 and test with the May data... not bad. :cool: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): 68.12 Variance of the test set: 235913.01 Mean Absolute Error (MAE): 50.33 Next step, test...
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    • JavierLeon
      Hi Kate, There is a very important bias in the days of the week that most pilgrims arrive: Friday > Saturday > Thursday > Sunday... it seems that pilgrims want to make sure they enjoy Santiago ;-) Buen Camino!!
    • JavierLeon
      A good predictor could be albergue vacancy rate in key starting towns (St Jean, Astorga, Sarria). This could be a good indicator of +X days to arrival in SdC. The Wise Pilgrim app has just added a voluntary feature where albs can self-report.
    • JavierLeon
      Really interested to see your results! Since day of week starting seems to be a big factor anecdotally (particularly weekends, holidays, 1st of the month) it might be worth making some assumptions to generate an estimated start date based off...
    • JavierLeon
      Thank you for your idea... but I am afraid it is completely out of the scope of this exercise. There are so many variables and lack of a complete vision of the Camino as a whole that it is very difficult to propose this type of solution. To...
    • JavierLeon
      But how would the interrogation distinguish pilgrims from non-pilgrims? I'm probably missing something obvious here.
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