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  1. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    I'm seeing more distance on the weekends than the rest but I think it's because of the growing trend this year.... I was more doubtful that it would do well with Easter but it has also predicted it quite well. regarding elections... give me some time 🙃
  2. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    YTD test to see if it works well with seasonality: and the most important features:
  3. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    First tests using catBoost using as training data from 2003 to 2024-05-01 and test with the May data... not bad. :cool: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): 68.12 Variance of the test set: 235913.01 Mean Absolute Error (MAE): 50.33 Next step, test other algorithms and hyper parameters and then...
  4. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    Hi Kate, There is a very important bias in the days of the week that most pilgrims arrive: Friday > Saturday > Thursday > Sunday... it seems that pilgrims want to make sure they enjoy Santiago ;-) Buen Camino!!
  5. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    Thank you for your idea... but I am afraid it is completely out of the scope of this exercise. There are so many variables and lack of a complete vision of the Camino as a whole that it is very difficult to propose this type of solution. To begin with, talking to the telephone companies to...
  6. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    Thank you Kate. Good point. I'm not really clear right now whether the day I want to finish or the day I want to start would have more influence. I think the first one... but I'm including it in the analysis. Buen Camino!
  7. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    Thank you Rick. I’m using time series with ML/DL to capture season patterns and trends.
  8. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    I wish that were possible because it would be a fundamental source of data to allocate/promote actions by areas but I'm afraid it's very complicated to add it on the same record...
  9. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    I’ll include that aggregation by geographical areas to see if there is any impact. Thank you!
  10. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    You’re right. I will try to link the place of departure (short, medium, long distance) with the mean days of the Camino and their historical weather... many assumptions ;-) Let see the results… thanks!
  11. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    That’s been alway my case: If I have the time, I don't care about the weather. On my first way, a thousand years ago, a Japanese couple in theirs 80 taught me this way. It was raining and no one dared to go out. They put on the poncho, greeted me in the Japanese way and told me: - it's dawned a...
  12. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    We have to make a lot of assumptions, for example, that pilgrims begin and end, that is, not all those who do it by sections are considered. But if something you say is true, there is an imbalance to finish from Thursday to Saturday I understand that to enjoy Santiago on the weekend, That’s the...
  13. JavierLeon

    Forecast arrival of pilgrims in Santiago

    Hi all, I have access to data on arrivals of pilgrims to Santiago by day, country, age, gender, departure point, route, reason and means used. Based on this data, I am analysing it to develop a machine learning model that will allow me to predict the arrival of pilgrims to Santiago. Which of...
  14. JavierLeon

    New detailed daily arrival statistics from Solviturambulando

    Working on an API from this data :cool: ...

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