An interesting question Fred, but really, if you look at it again, you are doing stats from fear ... crikey, can I make it, I'm an old guy, old guys like me must give up all the time ... etc ..etc ... blah blah ... the chattering mind really does do fear very well ... but the real you, the silent observing mind behind the chattering mind is not afraid, and is the one calling you to the Camino, the chattering mind will resist this, don't let it win - all is well :wink:
On a practical note, it seems to me that anyone starting at St. Jean and getting to Logrono is truly on their way. True, we can suffer damage and illness at any time but it is the day after day after day carrying that pack that can cause harm, and those first five days or so tend to be when the body shows faults ... but this is not a problem, I have met many who have stayed in Logrono and extra day or so to heal and then carried on (I have done it myself) - the whole trick is to be relaxed, to be kind to yourself. If you find it hard, well, slow down, take it easy, take a day off.
Whatever you do don't book yourself into a refuge a day ahead, you will find yourself keeping to a timetable - a terrible thing to do as you are always in the future, not where you are now - don't do it.
During the day sit at the top of a hill, or in a valley by a stream, or by a ruined building - somewhere truly quiet, sit, sit for an hour, two hours, take your boots off, drink water, be still, be silent and still - no phones, no ipads, no talking, no worries, just being there - just be - and when you are ready, well, stand up and walk on (don't forget your boots) .... so be not afraid Fred (who isn't dead), you walk in the footsteps of millions - all is well :wink: