Actually, and IMHO, the only constant is that, if you check the poles, either alone, or attached to other checked items, the poles will travel on the same plane as you. In most every case, they WILL arrive when you do. International security rules dictate that your checked luggage MUST travel on the same plane as you.
If you want predictability in your travels, check the darn poles already! Take them down as small as they will go and then, either place them in your rucksack or strapped outside. Then place the rucksack in a reasonably tough outer bag and check it.
Conversely, if you opt to try to being them on board as carryon, the sole constant is then inconsistency among security officers and airlines. I sincerely DO wish that everyone would realize this and just check the darn poles already, within or attached to one checked bag (rucksack or other).
IMHO, this ongoing discussion is tiresome. For those who take issue with the cost, I suggest you consider this as a fraction of what you have budgeted for your entire Camino. Checking one bag is truly an insignificant cost.
On my last Camino, I carried my rucksack onto the plane, but WITHOUT my poles or anything else that was not-permitted or "iffy." The rucksack included all my clothing and other Camino gear, as well as all dry food, electronics and personal items not easily replaceable on arrival. I wore my hiking boots enroute.
All of the "iffy" or not-permitted items went into the one, soft duffle bag I checked.
On arrival at my first night's lodging, the contents of the bag I checked were repacked into the rucksack. Some items I used enroute went into the now "surplus to needs" bag.
On the morning of my departure from my starting point, I mailed the remaining duffle bag ahead to Santiago. In my case, I sent it to my reserved hotel, with their permission, as I wanted it immediately on check-in. The other splendid option is to mail stuff to Ivar, as provided for in this forum. I use that extensively as well.
This ensures the most critical items arrive with me. Should checked bags go awry, I affix a destination tag, in addition to my home address tag. In the case of a Camino, the destination tag could be my first night's lodging, or my Santiago destination hotel. I ensure that a lost checked bag does not mean the ruination or end of a Camino. It is simply a challenge to overcome...
I hope this helps.