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COVID What are the odds of another lockdown?

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focalmatter

New Member
Spain's highest court recently ruled the past lockdown "unconstitutional." And though the ruling doesn't guarantee that another lockdown won't happen, I wonder if it's at least less likely now.

I wonder this because I bought myself a ticket to Madrid back in April (long before Delta started kicking up dust) and I'm wondering if I should use it if the country hasn't locked down by the time my September flight rolls around.

If the country does lock down by then, fine. Whatever. I'm out $200. I'll live.

But if it stays open, I fly out, and then it locks down. I could wind up having to pay $2000 to get a flight back to the States. Possibly worse, as I'll be out on Norte or Primitivo and it won't be as easy to dash off to a major city as if I were on Frances.

SO, WITH THAT SAID

How do people feel about the odds of another lockdown? Taking everything into consideration — vaccination rates, mask discipline, social distancing practices, fear of losing tourist income again, etc — how high do you think the odds are of a national lockdown?

Local or regional lockdowns could be navigated around, but a national one would be a huge complication. How likely might one be?
 
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CalgaryLynn

Active Member
Past OR future Camino
2021
I don't see the sense of another lockdown with many people vaccinated and numbers increasing daily. If we all just adhere to the standards rules of masks inside, washing hands and keeping our distance when deemed necessary, what will be gained by another lockdown. I am more nervous about those few that don't get vaccinated and keeping out of their way for the foreseeable future.
 

NorthernLight

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
Le Puy to Santiago via the Frances 2012-2013. EPW2015
Aragonese & Frances 2016
Burgos to Muxia 2017
One thing we have learned in the last 16 months is that it is difficult to predict what covid will do and how governments will respond. With the uptick in covid cases in Spain, and the fact that full vaccination is not a guarantee that you won’t contract the delta variant ... you take your chances no matter how you choose.
 

bergmannfamily

New Member
Past OR future Camino
none
Another national lockdown in Spain is unlikely given the recent supreme court decision, but any of the regions could lock down their own municipalities and borders. That could be a very big challenge. Even without a formal lockdown, significant restrictions could make the walk very onerous.

We have vacation planned starting the first week of September to start the Frances, but we have not yet bought the tickets. We are both vaxxed, but sure do not want to walk for a few days and then have to find our way back home. I think we will let things declare themselves for another two weeks at least and then make the final call. Last year we were prevented from going, so we walked 800 km of the Rockies in Canada instead. If we can't go we will find a walk across Newfoundland, or something.
 

NorthernLight

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
Le Puy to Santiago via the Frances 2012-2013. EPW2015
Aragonese & Frances 2016
Burgos to Muxia 2017
Last year we were prevented from going, so we walked 800 km of the Rockies in Canada instead. If we can't go we will find a walk across Newfoundland, or something.
Maybe the Atlantic bubble will have opened up to outsiders by then. Good luck.
 
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Joe.Iozzi

Member since 2016
Past OR future Camino
Camino Frances 2015, Camino Portuguese 2016, Camino del Norte 2017,
The court didn't rule that the government can't order a lockdown. It just said the process the government used was incorrect. Accordingto the BBC report, the court ruled "In order to legally limit people's freedoms to the extent they did last year, the court said, the government would have had to declare a state of exception rather than a state of emergency."
 
Past OR future Camino
2014, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
Various routes...
The Delta the latest scariant, still have Alpha, Beta, Omega, Lambda and and a few others from the Greek alphabet to roll out down the track I assume. Not sure what the Greeks did to deserve the notoriety ?
Nick, where I live people are literally dying in the street. You may not be inclined to take this seriously, but it IS serious.
 

SabineP

Camino = Gratitude + Compassion.
Past OR future Camino
some and then more. see my signature.
The Delta the latest scariant, still have Alpha, Beta, Omega, Lambda and and a few others from the Greek alphabet to roll out down the track I assume. Not sure what the Greeks did to deserve the notoriety ?

In my opinion just make a decision and run with it, personally I find it helps if you turn your TV off.

No Caminos for myself until all the mask wearing stops, I don't believe they're healthy and the on, off, on, off, on off repetition drives me crazy. Also don't want to end up looking like this:

View attachment 105493

Personally I do believe it is important to turn your tv and radio ( reading decent newspapers/ official websites from your government ) on. That is, if you stick to independent stations who try their utmost best to give us objective information.

Masks are healthy , do believe me. The last 16 months I have been wearing them almost eight hours a day. No complaints whatsoever.
This rather silly example in your picture is nothing compared with lying in a Covidward for months on oxygen.

To the OP : sorry for hijacking your thread! It is good to read you are preparing yourself for unexpected situations.
Local information on the ground will be key : informing yourself at a local town hall, pharmacy or the local police might be essential to keep you up to date while walking.

Buen camino!
 

David

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
2005
Who knows? It would have to be a pretty terrible situation to bring on a National lockdown again, in any country. But what new mutations will come, if any? and if they do will they be stronger or weaker?

Well, the UK has started a big experiment ... we have very high vaccination levels and have opened up, the gamble being that infections will rise exponentially but hospitalisation won't as the symptoms will be minor or non-existent with the vaccinated. Also, (sorry to be brutal, but it is true) the 130,000 who were most vulnerable are already dead, and, to be fair, the Flu kills between 5,000 and 25,000 a year so we are hoping that we will just live with Covid from now on.

We will know in a month ... if it works it should become the model for other countries, which would include Spain .. if it doesn't ... well ... who knows what the autumn will bring.

@VNwalking - you have people literally dying in the streets? We haven't had any of that in Europe, anywhere, even at the worst of times - Crikey - which country are you in?
 
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amancio

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
Frances, Norte, Primit, Salvador, Portug, Arag, Ingles, VdlP, Leban-Vadin, Fisterra, Invierno, LePuy
In my view, a total lockdown is pretty much impossible, the approach at the moment in Spain is to go for local lockdowns in places where incidence rates are soaring, I do not see another nationwide lockdown happening, not even regional or provincial lockdown, only local ones, if at all, apparently we are the third country in the world in percentage of vaccinated population.
 
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SabineP

Camino = Gratitude + Compassion.
Past OR future Camino
some and then more. see my signature.
In my view, a total lockdown is pretty much impossible, the approach at the moment in Spain is to go for local lockdowns in places where incidence rates are soaring, I do not see another nationwide lockdown happening, not even regional or provincial lockdown, only local ones, if at all, apparently we are the third country in the world in percentage of vaccinated population.

Spain is doing really well with vaccinations although interpretations of statistics vary from which source you consult.
This website gives some good info imho.

 

Kathar1na

Member
Past OR future Camino
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
apparently we are the third country in the world in percentage of vaccinated population.
I'm not sure about that figure in comparison to the countries of the world but there is no doubt that Spain is among the leading EU countries as far as fully vaccinated persons go: about 62% of the adult population in Spain are fully vaccinated, the same percentage as Belgium and only topped by Malta. And close to 80% of the adult population in Spain had at least one jab, similar to a number of other EU countries (all figures from the ECDC who collects and publishes them). Amazing figures if you ask me.

Unlike you, @amancio, I don't live in Spain but watch things from further away. I don't expect any EU country to have a lockdown this autumn as we had in March 2020. But everyone who travels ought to be prepared for all possibilities. I wouldn't travel without a credit card that would get me home if need be. Easier said and done when you know that you can hire a car to get home and are not dependent on a seat in an airplane ... as we know, even in March 2020, all those who had a car or could afford to hire one were able to get home.
 

ivar

Administrator
Staff member
I doubt there will be another lock down...

64% of Spaniards have at least one shot of a vaccine.. 53% has both shots. We are opening up for vaccination of those under 30 and some places also under 20 this week.

My not-professinal-gut-feeling prediction is that we will see cases dive in 3-4 weeks.

85% of new cases over the last 5 weeks are from un vaccinated people (they have not yet been offered the vaccine)
 

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Jeff Crawley

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
2018
The Delta the latest scariant, still have Alpha, Beta, Omega, Lambda and and a few others from the Greek alphabet to roll out down the track I assume. Not sure what the Greeks did to deserve the notoriety ?

In my opinion just make a decision and run with it, personally I find it helps if you turn your TV off.

No Caminos for myself until all the mask wearing stops, I don't believe they're healthy and the on, off, on, off, on off repetition drives me crazy. Also don't want to end up looking like this:

View attachment 105493
Alpha is the (UK) Kent variant; Beta is the South African variant - they've been out and about for months now.
 
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Jeff Crawley

Veteran Member
Past OR future Camino
2018
I don't see the sense of another lockdown with many people vaccinated and numbers increasing daily. If we all just adhere to the standards rules of masks inside, washing hands and keeping our distance when deemed necessary, what will be gained by another lockdown. I am more nervous about those few that don't get vaccinated and keeping out of their way for the foreseeable future.
In the UK 60% of new hospital cases (mainly Delta) were double jabbed; last week we were seeing 45,000+ new cases a day - the NHS is worried it can't meet another onslaught - and yet the government seem quite happy to allow people to "act responsibly".
Another lockdown, in the UK at least, odds on favourite!

Note from mod: This report was made in error. The UK has corrected it to say that 60% of the new hospital cases were unvaccinated. But the thread is closed, so let’s leave it.

 
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Kathar1na

Member
Past OR future Camino
To Santiago and back (roads & paths; Tours; Francés; sea; roads & paths)
Just saw an article where the mayor of Santiago called for "prudence" but otherwise sounds very reassuring and also brushed away questions about albergues. The 14-days case notification rate stands today at 470 for Santiago. Ok, just a number and a short-term number to boot but a number that would raise more than eyebrows elsewhere ...

 

Bristle Boy

Active Member
Past OR future Camino
2022
In the UK 60% of new hospital cases (mainly Delta) were double jabbed; last week we were seeing 45,000+ new cases a day - the NHS is worried it can't meet another onslaught - and yet the government seem quite happy to allow people to "act responsibly".
Another lockdown, in the UK at least, odds on favourite!
Thanks for the post Jeff although I am having difficulty finding anything to verify the 60% claim of hospitalizations of the double jabbed.

 
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