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- Time of past OR future Camino
- Frances 2013, 2015 and I've brought groups of women walking in 2017, 2018 and coming again in 2019!
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I'm not Ivar but I'll reply anyway. The hospitaleros are not the people who usually make this decision. The albergue owner or operator would do so (sometimes they are also the hospitaleros, but not usually), but of course they would then need to ensure that hospitaleros are available. They would need to follow the government guidelines and regulations - which at the time mean they are closed. I would say that it is too early to have any idea of how things will develop, but anything is possible. The best experts in the world would love to know!do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
EU261 The regulation about aircraft delays and cancellations applies to all passengers on EU airlines arriving within the EU.I am another one hoping for a September resumption of normal services. Our very friendly and cooperative German airline has offered a 6 month deferral of our tickets as long as we follow the same basic route. Under Eu rules they have to protect EU citizen, but those outside the EU are not afforded any such protection!!
I think that this is a secondary question. The primary question is: Will Spain, Portugal and France open their national borders to non-citizens by September or October?Question for Ivar: I know it's unrealistic, and many even a bit insensitive to ask at this time, but do you feel there is any possibility that albergues will open this season - say September or October? Or do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
I really hope to be your guest sometime soon! I’m sure you saw the chatter and excitement here about a month ago regarding your new venture! I’m so sorry that your first year is so deep in the tank. I just hope that you and the other beloved private albergue hosts will be able to recover.No one knows for sure but I personally hope that the government will allow us to open our doors to pilgrims this fall. By then we will have been 5+ months closed (= no income). This will only happen if safe for all concerned.
I took over Albergue Villares de Órbigo on March 13th and closed my doors 2 days later.
Its not the camino but I have cancelled a holiday in July and currently considering one in October too. I really doubt there will be any travel to anywhere this year. China is running down their restrictions now but would you consider going there in the near future, I wouldn't. I certainly would not ask anyone to run an albergue for at least 6 months after the last case recorded so I have my doubts about early 2021 aswellQuestion for Ivar: I know it's unrealistic, and many even a bit insensitive to ask at this time, but do you feel there is any possibility that albergues will open this season - say September or October? Or do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk !
I don't think that any (sanely governed) country will re-open their national borders to tourists until a vaccine has been manufactured and widely distributed globally. It will be a requirement for entry that tourists prove that they have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune to covid 19.
It's not just the warm weather/UV exposure, it's the fact that many viruses die down in the summer months because we spend less time inside in close quarters. Warm weather naturally encourages social distancing.I heard a panel of epidemiologists and doctors say this week that they fully expect a rebound effect: that the curve will flatten significantly in the Northern Hemisphere as Summer wears on. The virus is killed off by UV exposure
I totally understand your point. I see posts on Facebook Camino group pages where people say that they are "devastated" that they won't be able to do their Camino this year. I think that they need some perspective on what "devasted" really means.I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk !
EU261 The regulation about aircraft delays and cancellations applies to all passengers on EU airlines arriving within the EU.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_Compensation_Regulation
Prediction is very useful for planning and the original question related to planning.Speculation and prediction at this time can be dangerous and is pointless. There are so many more pressing issues that must be addressed today. Things change every day. World and national and state leaders, who shall remain nameless, have shown gross incompetence and negligence. Economic consequences unfold each day and seem to be graver. A vaccine? Who knows when and how effective. The same can be said for pharmacological solutions. The world is incredibly different today then it was just a few weeks ago. To dream and fantasize about walking again is a nice distraction from these absolutely trying days. But to ask for predictions is just inviting continued misinformation and confusion. What we should be concerned with now is just to listen to what the best scientific minds are telling us today and what we should be doing to help in this fight in the short-term. Now we should help ourselves and our loved ones with being vigilant, being clean, social distancing and finding ways to insure our personal safety and those who we must come in contact with. Remember, now more than ever, every thing we touch and everyone we come in contact with and any opinion or post we make can have unintended consequences. In this new world we live a layman opinion or action may end in a negative unintended consequence.
Please let me reiterate what I said to avoid any confusion.If a scientist is doing analytical research and is an expert in his/her field ie virology, immunology etc than Predication and planning are essential to fighting and planning and strategizing for the future. When a person on this forum or any person is asking a question about whether or not albergues will be open in September or October in a country that is being ravaged by a pandemic the likes of which we have no idea whatsoever how much damage will be done to the world, firstly in the ghastly number of potential deaths, economic and possible social upheaval is at this time completely irresponsible and selfish. The camino teaches us all that all we have in life is the step we are taking at that moment. This lesson more than ever in most of our lives is something to constantly remind ourselves. Any "prediction" or "speculation" which leads to responses that may have incomplete information, or information that is not at the moment relevant to us can actually be dangerous. What I mean by relevant is that this pandemic is at completely different stages from one country to another and within the borders of any country. Our bodies, minds and spirits must be focused at the task at hand. Being diligent about social distancing, hand washing etc. Keeping our bodies and minds healthy and exercised. Caring for our families, helping in any way that is safe a neighbor in need. Will the albergues be open in September? Let me ask the question. Will this virus of struck us personally by then. Will the virus have peaked and subsided by then, Will I still have a job by than, will I still have economic means to support myself and loved ones by then. I am sure hospitaleros are asking themselves that question and alot more. Please let us have some sense and stop projecting and predicting if you can do something as insignificant as walking somewhere that is not going away compared to the lives of all of us. Not trying to troll you or anything like that I just get more and more frustrated and angry when I see people all over the world not doing what needs to be done and focusing and planning on today. Leave prediction and long term planning to the experts who actually have an idea of how to move forward. Buen CaminoPrediction is very useful for planning and the original question related to planning.
Here is a quote from the New Zealand Prime Minister this morning, "However she expects the country to be restricted to visitors for some time after the lockdown period ends, as most of the country's cases are still coming in from overseas. And said the world will be dealing with limited international travel until there's a vaccine."
She is commenting about how long NZ will keep its own borders closed and on the last line notes that international travel throughout the world, for all countries, will be limited until a vaccine is available.
Link to article: https://amp.rnz.co.nz/article/61e701fa-dad2-4d4d-b7e9-6a33565ce3f8
Friends,
I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk ! . As I write 832 people died overnight in Spain with the death toll now reaching 5,690. The Spanish Health system, particularly in Madrid, is close to melt down. Grieving families cannot even afford their deceased loved ones a proper burial. The scars left by this pandemic will be deep and lasting. Only when this crisis subsides will our Spanish friends be able to grieve properly as they try to get back to some type of normality. Let's not try and kid ourselves that we can somehow help and support them by taking to the various Camino paths and spending a few Euros here and there. There will be a more appropriate time for that but it will be much further down the road. I am sure the last thing an exhausted local Doctor or Nurse want to see this September is some Pilgrim sauntering into their medical centre in Puente la Reina or Melide 'suffering' from blisters or tendonitis ! So, for now, please, no more posts about 'when will I be able to walk my Camino'.
Now is the time only for looking out for each other at home while showing solidarity and support for our Familia español
We will see you in happier times when it is right and appropriate.
Ultreia
P
My gut feeling is that Spain is over this by the end of July....
Cup of coffee or no, I think your hypothesis is the most logical. The tourism industry will shut down until there is a widely available vaccine. No caminos, no cruises, no nothing. When we come out at the other end, the tourism industry will look like it did twenty or thirty years ago, less capacity, higher prices. The Frances will be a lot less crowded in 2022.I think that this is a secondary question. The primary question is: Will Spain, Portugal and France open their national borders to non-citizens by September or October?
I don't think that they will, I certainly hope that they don't.
I don't think that any (sanely governed) country will re-open their national borders to tourists until a vaccine has been manufactured and widely distributed globally. It will be a requirement for entry that tourists prove that they have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune to covid 19.
China is our model here. They successfully gained control of local infections by shutting down the country and in the process discovered the huge financial cost of doing this. They now find that the risk of reinfection is from people traveling into China from outside.
They have made the very sensible decision to shut their borders to non-citizens and to severely restrict access into the country by having a very small number of possible international destinations where someone can fly into China and even then these routes only operate once a week.
They will keep these measures in place until they can be reasonably sure that the rest of the world has Covid 19 under control.
They are choosing to sacrifice their inbound tourist industry in order to protect the rest of the economy.
Current best guessing about when a vaccine might be available is 12-18 months, then we need to wait for the vaccine to be produced in enough numbers and cheap enough to cover most of the world or at least that part of the world that provides tourists. That is probably at least another 6 months so best guess on when the borders might reopen is 18-24 months from now.
Of course this is only my opinion and is perhaps worth the price of a cup of coffee, or less.
Cup of coffee or no, I think your hypothesis is the most logical. The tourism industry will shut down until there is a widely available vaccine. No caminos, no cruises, no nothing. When we come out at the other end, the tourism industry will look like it did twenty or thirty years ago, less capacity, higher prices. The Frances will be a lot less crowded in 2022.
Although we in New Zealand (southern hemisphere) are seeing a steady upward trend to our graph. Not as steep as Italy or Spain to be sure, but trending upward.I agree, and I would be reluctant to travel abroad without a vaccine, knowing that the virus is still circulating. It's not so much that I am fearful of getting sick, but I wouldn't want to become a vector for the disease and spread it to others.
It's not just the warm weather/UV exposure, it's the fact that many viruses die down in the summer months because we spend less time inside in close quarters. Warm weather naturally encourages social distancing.
I totally understand your point. I see posts on Facebook Camino group pages where people say that they are "devastated" that they won't be able to do their Camino this year. I think that they need some perspective on what "devasted" really means.
Another cure has been developed by the University of Queensland and is currently being trialled in 50 hospitals in Australia. I haven't seen any updates to this since about 25th March. Hopefully this will tide the world over until a vaccine can be developed and distributed.I agree the most likely scenario is that world will have travel restrictons in place for quite some time.
I am not so sure a vaccine will ONLY take18-24 months though, and it's not obvious (for me atleast) that a vaccine is the ONLY route.
If for instance a drug is found to remedy the effects of the virus enough so that another outbreak won't owerwhelm the health systems, I see no reason why they wouldn't open up sooner.
For instance: 3 days ago a new chinese study on the by now famous malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine's effect on Covid-19 was published. Granted, the study is not peer-reviewed and the sample size was small, but main findings were that 0 of the 31 patients that received HCQ progressed to severe illness as opposed to 4 out of the 31 in the control group. Study can be found here.
I'm guessing that study is the reason Trump mentioned it again at his presser today as "very promising" (or whatever he said. I'm not suffering through that press conference again to get excact quote)
From my understanding hydroxychloroquine is only one of atleast a couple of dozen already developed drugs that's being tested around the world on their effect on Covid-19, so the drug-treatment route could quite realistically be a faster approach to "fix the problem" than researching a vaccine.
When it comes to the timeline for developing a vaccine. I think Faucci and other have said that the 12-18 months for a vaccine is optimistic at the best of times. For instance: We're almost 40 years into the AIDS epedemic without medical science being able to find a vaccine for the HIV-virus (and it's been heavily researched). On the other hand we've had a medicine to completely surpress it for what? 25 years of something? Not saying Covid-19 and HIV are comparable in any way other than both being viruses of course...
Just my 2 cents, but it gives me hope that the number of people succumbing to this might not get as high as different models predict and not as important of course, but still, that normality of life and international travel might open up a bit sooner than the time it takes to get a vaccine to market.
Disclaimer: I'm not a medical proffesional in any way shape or form.
Friends,
I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk ! . As I write 832 people died overnight in Spain with the death toll now reaching 5,690. The Spanish Health system, particularly in Madrid, is close to melt down. Grieving families cannot even afford their deceased loved ones a proper burial. The scars left by this pandemic will be deep and lasting. Only when this crisis subsides will our Spanish friends be able to grieve properly as they try to get back to some type of normality. Let's not try and kid ourselves that we can somehow help and support them by taking to the various Camino paths and spending a few Euros here and there. There will be a more appropriate time for that but it will be much further down the road. I am sure the last thing an exhausted local Doctor or Nurse want to see this September is some Pilgrim sauntering into their medical centre in Puente la Reina or Melide 'suffering' from blisters or tendonitis ! So, for now, please, no more posts about 'when will I be able to walk my Camino'.
Now is the time only for looking out for each other at home while showing solidarity and support for our Familia español
We will see you in happier times when it is right and appropriate.
Ultreia
P
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