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COVID 2020 Camino a possibility?

Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2013, 2015 and I've brought groups of women walking in 2017, 2018 and coming again in 2019!
Question for Ivar: I know it's unrealistic, and many even a bit insensitive to ask at this time, but do you feel there is any possibility that albergues will open this season - say September or October? Or do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
I'm not Ivar but I'll reply anyway. The hospitaleros are not the people who usually make this decision. The albergue owner or operator would do so (sometimes they are also the hospitaleros, but not usually), but of course they would then need to ensure that hospitaleros are available. They would need to follow the government guidelines and regulations - which at the time mean they are closed. I would say that it is too early to have any idea of how things will develop, but anything is possible. The best experts in the world would love to know! ;)
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2013, 2015 and I've brought groups of women walking in 2017, 2018 and coming again in 2019!
Thank you, C clearly. Yes, I misspoke. I meant the albergue owners, not hospitaleros. So many factors to consider, and of course, we want everyone to be safe. Prayers for good health and safety to you and all the precious people in Spain. 💞
 
Camino(s) past & future
cycled from Pamplona Sep 2015;Frances, walked from St Jean May/June 2017. Plans to walk Porto 2020
I am another one hoping for a September resumption of normal services. Our very friendly and cooperative German airline has offered a 6 month deferral of our tickets as long as we follow the same basic route. Under Eu rules they have to protect EU citizen, but those outside the EU are not afforded any such protection!!
 

Telboyo

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
I intend to leave the UK the day Before Brexit and walkMarch -April 2019 Camino Frances
I am another one hoping for a September resumption of normal services. Our very friendly and cooperative German airline has offered a 6 month deferral of our tickets as long as we follow the same basic route. Under Eu rules they have to protect EU citizen, but those outside the EU are not afforded any such protection!!
EU261 The regulation about aircraft delays and cancellations applies to all passengers on EU airlines arriving within the EU.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_Compensation_Regulation
 
Camino(s) past & future
Future
Yes, maybe Ivar has further information, but still difficult to know.
I have a window in august, already got used to the idea that by then things won’t be sufficiently settled down though.
Your enquiry goes beyond, I know, around september-october, hopefully, but I’m fairly pessimistic about it.
 

LTfit

Veteran Member
No one knows for sure but I personally hope that the government will allow us to open our doors to pilgrims this fall. By then we will have been 5+ months closed (= no income). This will only happen if safe for all concerned.

I took over Albergue Villares de Órbigo on March 13th and closed my doors 2 days later😟.
 

murraydv

Via de la Plata / Sanabres / Camino de Levante
Camino(s) past & future
Completed Via de la Plata (2018).
Started Camino de Levante (2019).
I was looking forward to resuming my Camino (Levante) in late April. Not knowing that, today, I am allowed to walk no further than 2 klm from my house. All of Ireland now in Lock down, as are many other countries. Stay safe.
 

Thomas1962

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2010/2011/2012/2013: Madrid -Salvador -Primitivo 2014: EPW 2015: Amsterdam - SdC
As an owner and a hospitalero, I can just hope that by this fall it will be save and allowed to open again. And that there will be pilgrims who dare to go by then. But my guess has the same value as anyone else's.
I'm sure that we will open as soon as we can, and my guess is that nearly all albergues will do. We also might stay open after our usual winter closure, this to compensate as much as possible the nearly total loss of income we will have this year.
So....feel free to prepare a winter camino! 🤓
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
Question for Ivar: I know it's unrealistic, and many even a bit insensitive to ask at this time, but do you feel there is any possibility that albergues will open this season - say September or October? Or do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
I think that this is a secondary question. The primary question is: Will Spain, Portugal and France open their national borders to non-citizens by September or October?

I don't think that they will, I certainly hope that they don't.

I don't think that any (sanely governed) country will re-open their national borders to tourists until a vaccine has been manufactured and widely distributed globally. It will be a requirement for entry that tourists prove that they have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune to covid 19.

China is our model here. They successfully gained control of local infections by shutting down the country and in the process discovered the huge financial cost of doing this. They now find that the risk of reinfection is from people traveling into China from outside.

They have made the very sensible decision to shut their borders to non-citizens and to severely restrict access into the country by having a very small number of possible international destinations where someone can fly into China and even then these routes only operate once a week.

They will keep these measures in place until they can be reasonably sure that the rest of the world has Covid 19 under control.

They are choosing to sacrifice their inbound tourist industry in order to protect the rest of the economy.

Current best guessing about when a vaccine might be available is 12-18 months, then we need to wait for the vaccine to be produced in enough numbers and cheap enough to cover most of the world or at least that part of the world that provides tourists. That is probably at least another 6 months so best guess on when the borders might reopen is 18-24 months from now.

Of course this is only my opinion and is perhaps worth the price of a cup of coffee, or less.
 

Zordmot

First timer Spring 2019
Camino(s) past & future
April-May 2019
No one knows for sure but I personally hope that the government will allow us to open our doors to pilgrims this fall. By then we will have been 5+ months closed (= no income). This will only happen if safe for all concerned.

I took over Albergue Villares de Órbigo on March 13th and closed my doors 2 days later😟.
I really hope to be your guest sometime soon! I’m sure you saw the chatter and excitement here about a month ago regarding your new venture! I’m so sorry that your first year is so deep in the tank. I just hope that you and the other beloved private albergue hosts will be able to recover.
 

Zordmot

First timer Spring 2019
Camino(s) past & future
April-May 2019
I heard a panel of epidemiologists and doctors say this week that they fully expect a rebound effect: that the curve will flatten significantly in the Northern Hemisphere as Summer wears on. The virus is killed off by UV exposure. By the same token they expect very high numbers during Winter in the Southern Hemisphere and they were unanimous in saying they expect the virus to return and thrive in the north again as Summer turns to Autumn. P
 

tpmchugh

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances (2013)
Camino Frances (2015)
Camino Frances (2016)
Camino Frances (2018}
Question for Ivar: I know it's unrealistic, and many even a bit insensitive to ask at this time, but do you feel there is any possibility that albergues will open this season - say September or October? Or do you think the hospitaleros will keep closed this entire year, opening in the spring 2021?
Its not the camino but I have cancelled a holiday in July and currently considering one in October too. I really doubt there will be any travel to anywhere this year. China is running down their restrictions now but would you consider going there in the near future, I wouldn't. I certainly would not ask anyone to run an albergue for at least 6 months after the last case recorded so I have my doubts about early 2021 aswell
 

Peadarmac

Irlandes Pedro
Camino(s) past & future
Astorga-S de C '11,'18,19
St Jean-Belorado '13 & '17
Belorado-Astorga '15
Fisterra-Muxia '11,'18,'19
Friends,

I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk ! . As I write 832 people died overnight in Spain with the death toll now reaching 5,690. The Spanish Health system, particularly in Madrid, is close to melt down. Grieving families cannot even afford their deceased loved ones a proper burial. The scars left by this pandemic will be deep and lasting. Only when this crisis subsides will our Spanish friends be able to grieve properly as they try to get back to some type of normality. Let's not try and kid ourselves that we can somehow help and support them by taking to the various Camino paths and spending a few Euros here and there. There will be a more appropriate time for that but it will be much further down the road. I am sure the last thing an exhausted local Doctor or Nurse want to see this September is some Pilgrim sauntering into their medical centre in Puente la Reina or Melide 'suffering' from blisters or tendonitis ! So, for now, please, no more posts about 'when will I be able to walk my Camino'.

Now is the time only for looking out for each other at home while showing solidarity and support for our Familia español 🇪🇸 🤝🇮🇪

We will see you in happier times when it is right and appropriate.

Ultreia

P
 

Bad Pilgrim

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Far too many...
I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk !
Oh, I understand what you mean by this. On the other hand, the topic of this public Forum is the Camino, so I am not surprised that the OP posted that particular message/question. I don't think any disrespect was intended. I believe we can worry about the Spanish people and wonder about the Camino at the same time, right? 🙃
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
I don't think that any (sanely governed) country will re-open their national borders to tourists until a vaccine has been manufactured and widely distributed globally. It will be a requirement for entry that tourists prove that they have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune to covid 19.
I agree, and I would be reluctant to travel abroad without a vaccine, knowing that the virus is still circulating. It's not so much that I am fearful of getting sick, but I wouldn't want to become a vector for the disease and spread it to others.
I heard a panel of epidemiologists and doctors say this week that they fully expect a rebound effect: that the curve will flatten significantly in the Northern Hemisphere as Summer wears on. The virus is killed off by UV exposure
It's not just the warm weather/UV exposure, it's the fact that many viruses die down in the summer months because we spend less time inside in close quarters. Warm weather naturally encourages social distancing.
I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk !
I totally understand your point. I see posts on Facebook Camino group pages where people say that they are "devastated" that they won't be able to do their Camino this year. I think that they need some perspective on what "devasted" really means.
 

lt56ny

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(2012) Le Puy/CF (2015) Portugues (2017) Norte (2018) CF (2019)
Speculation and prediction at this time can be dangerous and is pointless. There are so many more pressing issues that must be addressed today. Things change every day. World and national and state leaders, who shall remain nameless, have shown gross incompetence and negligence. Economic consequences unfold each day and seem to be graver. A vaccine? Who knows when and how effective. The same can be said for pharmacological solutions. The world is incredibly different today then it was just a few weeks ago. To dream and fantasize about walking again is a nice distraction from these absolutely trying days. But to ask for predictions is just inviting continued misinformation and confusion. What we should be concerned with now is just to listen to what the best scientific minds are telling us today and what we should be doing to help in this fight in the short-term. Now we should help ourselves and our loved ones with being vigilant, being clean, social distancing and finding ways to insure our personal safety and those who we must come in contact with. Remember, now more than ever, every thing we touch and everyone we come in contact with and any opinion or post we make can have unintended consequences. In this new world we live a layman opinion or action may end in a negative unintended consequence.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2013, 2015 and I've brought groups of women walking in 2017, 2018 and coming again in 2019!
Thank you so much for all of your thoughts and insights. I had plans to walk this precious path that I love so much again in September with a group of twelve friends. My disappointment for not walking pales tremendously to the overwhelming sadness I feel for the loving and kind Spanish people (and the entire world) during this difficult time. As a way to redirect this conversation to the positive, does anyone have suggestions on how we pilgrims can help the people along the path (albergue owners, hospitaleros, shop owners) who have welcomed us with open arms?
 

Island

Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Portugues 2019
Pilgrims' Way 2020
Via Francigena 2020
California Mission Trail 2020
I find myself refraining from most threads these days, pushing my ego to exercise the same level of humility that I wish to see from my contemporaries. And now I've failed but I just wish we could all demonstrate a little more tolerance towards one another. These are hard days for me; surely they are hard for you and for others as well. If someone who is hurting needs to ask about a future Camino, I hope I can show them the same compassion as those who need to discuss their family's medical situation or a financial crisis that has befallen them.

i hope you pray for me and my family. I am praying for yours until we can be together in Santiago next. Stay safe and be well. Buen Camino
 
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Camino(s) past & future
cycled from Pamplona Sep 2015;Frances, walked from St Jean May/June 2017. Plans to walk Porto 2020
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2019)
Speculation and prediction at this time can be dangerous and is pointless. There are so many more pressing issues that must be addressed today. Things change every day. World and national and state leaders, who shall remain nameless, have shown gross incompetence and negligence. Economic consequences unfold each day and seem to be graver. A vaccine? Who knows when and how effective. The same can be said for pharmacological solutions. The world is incredibly different today then it was just a few weeks ago. To dream and fantasize about walking again is a nice distraction from these absolutely trying days. But to ask for predictions is just inviting continued misinformation and confusion. What we should be concerned with now is just to listen to what the best scientific minds are telling us today and what we should be doing to help in this fight in the short-term. Now we should help ourselves and our loved ones with being vigilant, being clean, social distancing and finding ways to insure our personal safety and those who we must come in contact with. Remember, now more than ever, every thing we touch and everyone we come in contact with and any opinion or post we make can have unintended consequences. In this new world we live a layman opinion or action may end in a negative unintended consequence.
Prediction is very useful for planning and the original question related to planning.

Here is a quote from the New Zealand Prime Minister this morning, "However she expects the country to be restricted to visitors for some time after the lockdown period ends, as most of the country's cases are still coming in from overseas. And said the world will be dealing with limited international travel until there's a vaccine."

She is commenting about how long NZ will keep its own borders closed and on the last line notes that international travel throughout the world, for all countries, will be limited until a vaccine is available.

Link to article: https://amp.rnz.co.nz/article/61e701fa-dad2-4d4d-b7e9-6a33565ce3f8
 

binhpac

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
2019 Camino Frances
2020 Planned Camino Frances
Right now, i feel pretty positive the camino will reopen again sometime this year.

Just because i doubt spain can afford it to be on lockdown for such a long time, the economy relies too much on the tourism and the camino is much safer than the tourism at the beaches, which will probably also reopen again with lots of restrictions.

I'm more worried about the camino experience. It won't be the same with the social distancing. Also only people who are totally convinced about going the camino will be there, veterans, ... All the people with doubts or looking for an escape of daily life won't go on a journey worrying about the virus this time.

Netherless the camino experience this year will probably be very different, unless you don't value the social aspect and are a lonely pilgrim, who just need his two feets and his own thoughts.
 
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lt56ny

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(2012) Le Puy/CF (2015) Portugues (2017) Norte (2018) CF (2019)
Prediction is very useful for planning and the original question related to planning.

Here is a quote from the New Zealand Prime Minister this morning, "However she expects the country to be restricted to visitors for some time after the lockdown period ends, as most of the country's cases are still coming in from overseas. And said the world will be dealing with limited international travel until there's a vaccine."

She is commenting about how long NZ will keep its own borders closed and on the last line notes that international travel throughout the world, for all countries, will be limited until a vaccine is available.

Link to article: https://amp.rnz.co.nz/article/61e701fa-dad2-4d4d-b7e9-6a33565ce3f8
Please let me reiterate what I said to avoid any confusion.If a scientist is doing analytical research and is an expert in his/her field ie virology, immunology etc than Predication and planning are essential to fighting and planning and strategizing for the future. When a person on this forum or any person is asking a question about whether or not albergues will be open in September or October in a country that is being ravaged by a pandemic the likes of which we have no idea whatsoever how much damage will be done to the world, firstly in the ghastly number of potential deaths, economic and possible social upheaval is at this time completely irresponsible and selfish. The camino teaches us all that all we have in life is the step we are taking at that moment. This lesson more than ever in most of our lives is something to constantly remind ourselves. Any "prediction" or "speculation" which leads to responses that may have incomplete information, or information that is not at the moment relevant to us can actually be dangerous. What I mean by relevant is that this pandemic is at completely different stages from one country to another and within the borders of any country. Our bodies, minds and spirits must be focused at the task at hand. Being diligent about social distancing, hand washing etc. Keeping our bodies and minds healthy and exercised. Caring for our families, helping in any way that is safe a neighbor in need. Will the albergues be open in September? Let me ask the question. Will this virus of struck us personally by then. Will the virus have peaked and subsided by then, Will I still have a job by than, will I still have economic means to support myself and loved ones by then. I am sure hospitaleros are asking themselves that question and alot more. Please let us have some sense and stop projecting and predicting if you can do something as insignificant as walking somewhere that is not going away compared to the lives of all of us. Not trying to troll you or anything like that I just get more and more frustrated and angry when I see people all over the world not doing what needs to be done and focusing and planning on today. Leave prediction and long term planning to the experts who actually have an idea of how to move forward. Buen Camino
 
D

Deleted member 67185

Guest
Looking ahead and planning is neither unethical or immoral. It does not show disdain or disrespect for what is happening in Spain. I would agree with the notion that if plans ARE made, it is wise to do so under the knowledge that those future plans might need to be changed or modified.

In my view, with the damage to Spain's economy, I would be surprised if Spanish business owners are not hoping and praying for Camino pilgrims to show up as soon as it is safe to do so, as travel is lifted. If Spaniard business owners were aware that many of us are anxiously waiting for their doors to re-open, that might give them a bit of hope - - that the current situation WILL eventually end, and business will return.

I've posted before how I am planning for two late fall Caminos. I've detailed what I've done to assure that I take no financial 'hit' if those plans fail to materialize. I do so with no other expectations than that things are ready to go IF things are open.

My hope is that owners of Camino shops and restaurants and grocers and lodgings, etc learn that we will return, and will once again be a partner in their economy.

Hang in there Spain. . . we will be back. In the meantime, you are in our thoughts, prayers and hopes.
 

jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
Friends,

I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk ! . As I write 832 people died overnight in Spain with the death toll now reaching 5,690. The Spanish Health system, particularly in Madrid, is close to melt down. Grieving families cannot even afford their deceased loved ones a proper burial. The scars left by this pandemic will be deep and lasting. Only when this crisis subsides will our Spanish friends be able to grieve properly as they try to get back to some type of normality. Let's not try and kid ourselves that we can somehow help and support them by taking to the various Camino paths and spending a few Euros here and there. There will be a more appropriate time for that but it will be much further down the road. I am sure the last thing an exhausted local Doctor or Nurse want to see this September is some Pilgrim sauntering into their medical centre in Puente la Reina or Melide 'suffering' from blisters or tendonitis ! So, for now, please, no more posts about 'when will I be able to walk my Camino'.

Now is the time only for looking out for each other at home while showing solidarity and support for our Familia español 🇪🇸 🤝🇮🇪

We will see you in happier times when it is right and appropriate.

Ultreia

P
I disagree with parts of this post.

I believe a lot of Doctors and nurses will be hoping for the day to return when their biggest worry is "Blisters or Tendonitis".

Many of us are grieving with our Spanish Brothers and Sisters who have welcomed us with open arms.

I have been maintaining contact through "whatsApp" and look forward to a time later this year to be able to visit them again and walk a few Kilometers together.

Ultreya,
Joe
 
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Camino(s) past & future
2002, Toulouse/Aragon 2005, Cami S Jaume/Aragon 2007/9, Mont Saint Michel/Norte/Vadiniense 2011, Norte/Primitivo 2013, Norte/Primitivo 2014. Norte 2015, Cami S Jaume/Castellano-Aragonese 2016
I would be agreeably surprised if things could open up by the autumn, but there is absolutely no clarity on how things will go in the next few months, so we will have to wait. I have filed my Levante plans and suspect that next year will be the earliest.

In the meanwhile, as others have noted, we should turn our minds to supporting the Spanish and Portuguese people as they deal with the challenge and the tragedies of the virus, and to practical measures to provide support to the infrastructure (a long word which includes the volunteers and communities along the way).
 

Kitsambler

Jakobsweg Junkie
Camino(s) past & future
Le Puy 2010-11, Prague 2012, Nuremberg 2013, Einsiedeln 2015, Geneva 2017-19
From what I've seen in the (US) media so far, we can anticipate (at least) three competing trends:
1) The current wave of infections may wind up by mid-summer (in the northern hemisphere)
2) A second wave is anticipated at some point in the autumn
3) Borders may remain closed or quarantines mandatory until such time as vaccination is available
 

gerip

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF, Lourdes to Burgos, Oct 2018
CF, Burgos to Santiago, May 2019
Ingles, Sep - Oct 2019
My only plan this year is to volunteer with Camino Companions in October, maybe spend a week or two beforehand “filling in my footsteps” on some of the bits I skipped on the Frances. EasyJet is having a fire sale so for £43 I bought a ticket to Santiago. If it doesn’t happen, well, I’m not really out of pocket. It’s a Hail Mary pass, but hey.
 

gerip

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF, Lourdes to Burgos, Oct 2018
CF, Burgos to Santiago, May 2019
Ingles, Sep - Oct 2019
I think that this is a secondary question. The primary question is: Will Spain, Portugal and France open their national borders to non-citizens by September or October?

I don't think that they will, I certainly hope that they don't.

I don't think that any (sanely governed) country will re-open their national borders to tourists until a vaccine has been manufactured and widely distributed globally. It will be a requirement for entry that tourists prove that they have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune to covid 19.

China is our model here. They successfully gained control of local infections by shutting down the country and in the process discovered the huge financial cost of doing this. They now find that the risk of reinfection is from people traveling into China from outside.

They have made the very sensible decision to shut their borders to non-citizens and to severely restrict access into the country by having a very small number of possible international destinations where someone can fly into China and even then these routes only operate once a week.

They will keep these measures in place until they can be reasonably sure that the rest of the world has Covid 19 under control.

They are choosing to sacrifice their inbound tourist industry in order to protect the rest of the economy.

Current best guessing about when a vaccine might be available is 12-18 months, then we need to wait for the vaccine to be produced in enough numbers and cheap enough to cover most of the world or at least that part of the world that provides tourists. That is probably at least another 6 months so best guess on when the borders might reopen is 18-24 months from now.

Of course this is only my opinion and is perhaps worth the price of a cup of coffee, or less.
Cup of coffee or no, I think your hypothesis is the most logical. The tourism industry will shut down until there is a widely available vaccine. No caminos, no cruises, no nothing. When we come out at the other end, the tourism industry will look like it did twenty or thirty years ago, less capacity, higher prices. The Frances will be a lot less crowded in 2022.
 

Spurselona

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances (2020)?
Cup of coffee or no, I think your hypothesis is the most logical. The tourism industry will shut down until there is a widely available vaccine. No caminos, no cruises, no nothing. When we come out at the other end, the tourism industry will look like it did twenty or thirty years ago, less capacity, higher prices. The Frances will be a lot less crowded in 2022.
I agree the most likely scenario is that world will have travel restrictons in place for quite some time.
I am not so sure a vaccine will ONLY take18-24 months though, and it's not obvious (for me atleast) that a vaccine is the ONLY route.
If for instance a drug is found to remedy the effects of the virus enough so that another outbreak won't owerwhelm the health systems, I see no reason why they wouldn't open up sooner.

For instance: 3 days ago a new chinese study on the by now famous malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine's effect on Covid-19 was published. Granted, the study is not peer-reviewed and the sample size was small, but main findings were that 0 of the 31 patients that received HCQ progressed to severe illness as opposed to 4 out of the 31 in the control group. Study can be found here.
I'm guessing that study is the reason Trump mentioned it again at his presser today as "very promising" (or whatever he said. I'm not suffering through that press conference again to get excact quote)

From my understanding hydroxychloroquine is only one of atleast a couple of dozen already developed drugs that's being tested around the world on their effect on Covid-19, so the drug-treatment route could quite realistically be a faster approach to "fix the problem" than researching a vaccine.

When it comes to the timeline for developing a vaccine. I think Faucci and other have said that the 12-18 months for a vaccine is optimistic at the best of times. For instance: We're almost 40 years into the AIDS epedemic without medical science being able to find a vaccine for the HIV-virus (and it's been heavily researched). On the other hand we've had a medicine to completely surpress it for what? 25 years of something? Not saying Covid-19 and HIV are comparable in any way other than both being viruses of course...

Just my 2 cents, but it gives me hope that the number of people succumbing to this might not get as high as different models predict and not as important of course, but still, that normality of life and international travel might open up a bit sooner than the time it takes to get a vaccine to market.

Disclaimer: I'm not a medical proffesional in any way shape or form.
 
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Anamiri

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
2016, 2017, 2019 Camino Frances
I agree, and I would be reluctant to travel abroad without a vaccine, knowing that the virus is still circulating. It's not so much that I am fearful of getting sick, but I wouldn't want to become a vector for the disease and spread it to others.

It's not just the warm weather/UV exposure, it's the fact that many viruses die down in the summer months because we spend less time inside in close quarters. Warm weather naturally encourages social distancing.

I totally understand your point. I see posts on Facebook Camino group pages where people say that they are "devastated" that they won't be able to do their Camino this year. I think that they need some perspective on what "devasted" really means.
Although we in New Zealand (southern hemisphere) are seeing a steady upward trend to our graph. Not as steep as Italy or Spain to be sure, but trending upward.
It is still hot here particularly in the northern areas - as the Covid 19 graph climbs. In Auckland we have a water shortage as we are still in drought mode, it is hot and sunny most days. Further north where I have a small cottage water theft is common this summer, and we hope we still have some when all this eases and we can move around again. I am still walking my dogs in the early mornings, as being long haired they feel the heat. (In lock down we are still allowed to walk dogs as long as we dont have to drive anywhere to do it)
Our numbers are due mainly to oversees travelers arriving or New Zealanders returning, so the season itself has had no bearing. Local transmission is now occurring, linked to the original travellers who brought it in/back.
We have rather a large 'moat'. so pretty much all our travelers have flown here. I cant see air travel opening up for some time.
 

katie@camino

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF, SJPDP-Finisterre 2016;CP (Central) Porto-SdC 2017;CP (Coastal) Porto-SdC 2018;CF Leon-SdC 2019
I agree the most likely scenario is that world will have travel restrictons in place for quite some time.
I am not so sure a vaccine will ONLY take18-24 months though, and it's not obvious (for me atleast) that a vaccine is the ONLY route.
If for instance a drug is found to remedy the effects of the virus enough so that another outbreak won't owerwhelm the health systems, I see no reason why they wouldn't open up sooner.

For instance: 3 days ago a new chinese study on the by now famous malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine's effect on Covid-19 was published. Granted, the study is not peer-reviewed and the sample size was small, but main findings were that 0 of the 31 patients that received HCQ progressed to severe illness as opposed to 4 out of the 31 in the control group. Study can be found here.
I'm guessing that study is the reason Trump mentioned it again at his presser today as "very promising" (or whatever he said. I'm not suffering through that press conference again to get excact quote)

From my understanding hydroxychloroquine is only one of atleast a couple of dozen already developed drugs that's being tested around the world on their effect on Covid-19, so the drug-treatment route could quite realistically be a faster approach to "fix the problem" than researching a vaccine.

When it comes to the timeline for developing a vaccine. I think Faucci and other have said that the 12-18 months for a vaccine is optimistic at the best of times. For instance: We're almost 40 years into the AIDS epedemic without medical science being able to find a vaccine for the HIV-virus (and it's been heavily researched). On the other hand we've had a medicine to completely surpress it for what? 25 years of something? Not saying Covid-19 and HIV are comparable in any way other than both being viruses of course...

Just my 2 cents, but it gives me hope that the number of people succumbing to this might not get as high as different models predict and not as important of course, but still, that normality of life and international travel might open up a bit sooner than the time it takes to get a vaccine to market.

Disclaimer: I'm not a medical proffesional in any way shape or form.
Another cure has been developed by the University of Queensland and is currently being trialled in 50 hospitals in Australia. I haven't seen any updates to this since about 25th March. Hopefully this will tide the world over until a vaccine can be developed and distributed.

I too am not a medical expert.
 
Camino(s) past & future
cf (2), de la plata, cp. (2003 -2018)
Friends,

I genuinely have no wish to offend anyone but I really feel strongly that it is neither appropriate nor ethical to be speculating about future Caminos at this time and certainly not on a public Forum such as this. In fact at this critical and desperate time in Spain's history I feel it is disrespectful, insensitive and crass in the extreme to be hoping that things 'settle down' in order that some of us can go for a walk ! . As I write 832 people died overnight in Spain with the death toll now reaching 5,690. The Spanish Health system, particularly in Madrid, is close to melt down. Grieving families cannot even afford their deceased loved ones a proper burial. The scars left by this pandemic will be deep and lasting. Only when this crisis subsides will our Spanish friends be able to grieve properly as they try to get back to some type of normality. Let's not try and kid ourselves that we can somehow help and support them by taking to the various Camino paths and spending a few Euros here and there. There will be a more appropriate time for that but it will be much further down the road. I am sure the last thing an exhausted local Doctor or Nurse want to see this September is some Pilgrim sauntering into their medical centre in Puente la Reina or Melide 'suffering' from blisters or tendonitis ! So, for now, please, no more posts about 'when will I be able to walk my Camino'.

Now is the time only for looking out for each other at home while showing solidarity and support for our Familia español 🇪🇸 🤝🇮🇪

We will see you in happier times when it is right and appropriate.

Ultreia

P
Grievous but well said. To love ones family one sometimes has to stay away. My beloved Spain holds my heart but I would rather it was broken here in my flat than be the cause of someone else's because I wish to Camino. Even tho I never see it again I have a wellspring of memories that will never run dry.

Stay safe mi Peregrinos

The Camino isn't going away!

The malingerer.
 

lthrnck55

Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances Sept/Oct 2014

Camino Frances via Lourdes Sept/Oct/Nov 2020 ( Hopefully )
I am hoping for a mid October to 1st of November Camino. There is no way I can know if The Way will be open before then. But I can rely on the experts and govt officials to make a decision. Only time will tell if they make the right decision. At any rate, hopefully a decision will be made by July or August and I can either forget a Pilgrimage for this year or make other plans. Currently, I have five nights reserved at a nice hotel in Santiago at the end of the year that I can cancel up to the week before.

This too shall pass. The Camino Provides. Que Sera Sera. And my favorite from my late father-in-law, "You Never Know Until You Find Out."
 
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