- Time of past OR future Camino
- To Santiago + back
2400 km + 950 nmi
160 days
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No, that's not what it sounds like. What I say is this: there are better threads than this one to read up on what has already been posted about the topic of whether Americans are allowed into Spain and, further to the point, why there are Americans who are in Spain and in Compostela in particular or who even do walk the Camino, and to exchange further information and opinions about the topic than this thread which has a tendency to become a monster thread anyway. Note that we are on "ROUND 8" here.I am not sure why the landlord told me Americans are allowed into Spain, so wondered if there was some incident/change I missed. Sounds like you would rather I did not bring this up as it has been dealt with already.
If I were inclined to do so, which I am not right now however, I would take issue with the claim that the Spanish media manipulate data to raise fear in the public.I'd like to show you how the media manipulate the data to raise the fear of the public.
Give everyone a piece of string to cut and they will all be different.It has certainly been discussed but it has not been settled - because the situation is constantly changing and there are many complexities that make generalities inaccurate
This seems like a discrepancy. Who can explain this in a meaningful way?
I don't see it like this. Sometimes Covid-19 data as we find it published in the media or on non-specialist websites for the general public are a little confusing but all you need is the back of an old envelope and a pen to gain a better understanding. Admittedly, today it wasn't enough as I needed an old envelope and half of the reverse side of a sheet of paper on which I had printed something that I no longer needed.The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. I am saying sincerely as it relates to covid 19. It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
Scientists are working hard to understand Covid 19, and it is not a simple matter with quick and obvious facts. Reporters are trying to understand the state-of-the-science and communicate it to the public, but they often do not have the science or logic skills to do it well. Most scientists and reporters are trying their best to do a decent job, but their best is far from perfect, and there are even irresponsible people among them. To say it is "just the way it is" is to suggest that they cannot or should not improve.The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. I am saying sincerely as it relates to covid 19. It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
We are not asking an existential question here. To carry the comparison further...Give everyone a piece of string to cut and they will all be different.
It is the "fault" of everyone. Scientists should work correctly by the scientific method. Reporters should report numbers accurately. As consumers of this important information, we should question it - not just shrug and say it is unknowable.It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
Scientists, engineers and reporters come in all personality types.I know where you are mostly coming from.
I realize that, and in my family all three are definatly different one from another in pesonality.Scientists, engineers and reporters come in all personality types.Just like teachers, accountants and mechanics. The facts are independent of the personality of the scientist or reporter.
Right. It hasn't failed. The trial is on hold while one participant's adverse reaction is investigated.
AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K.
AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine study has been put on hold due to a suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K.www.statnews.com
This seems like a discrepancy. Who can explain this in a meaningful way?
Here they are:I'm curious to see today's (Monday's) data that will be published soon.
Worldometer is my favourite "go to" place, too!I prefer this one that shows 3-4K for the last week and a clear downward trend in the 7 day average.
Six countries of the European Union (EU) began on Monday a project to test a secure communications infrastructure that allows interoperability of COVID-19 tracking applications and warns possible infected. The official tracking and alert applications of the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Latvia have been selected to start operating with this test server, reported the European Commission (EC), promoter of the initiative. Users will only need to install an application and can both report a positive COVID test and receive an alert, even if they travel to another Member State
Recently VN Walking said that the concerns and inconsistencies that people are justifiably angry about need to be addressed....and so they should!
I honestly do not think that these constant lockdowns and threats of another national lockdown are justified
This is instilling fear in people and I know of some who are so paralysed with fear is that they dare not go out of the house
At the beginning of all this in February our governments and scientists knew absolutely nothing about this virus so of course a complete lockdown was necessary ...they were all doing their best to address the situation but as time went on new facts and treatments began to emerge leading to a lower number of deaths due to better management and treatment...EG the use of Dexamethasone and that ventilators may do more harm than good
We now know too that the increase in infections is among the young, not the old but deaths are highest in the elderly, and those with health conditions and the obese.
Deaths amongst the young are rare and even when they have the virus, many are not affected or even show symptoms
So my question/thoughts are why not shield the vulnerable instead of shackling the entire population?
And heaven forbid anyone who challenges this....they are deemed idiots who " don't follow the science"
In fact a minister recently said to the young..."don't kill your granny" ...that's a heavy burden to bear and a stupid thing to say from someone that's supposed to be intelligent!
Months ago there wer countless demonstrations in London...we all expected a spike back then...it never came.
But now with more testing the positives have increased
Although science is evolving as we learn new things about this virus, the problem is that the virologists disagree with the scientists and the scientists disagree with each other
It just seems to me that the younger generation has been sacrificed in order to preserve the older generation ....this may sound very contentious but it's not meant to be and of course we must try and prevent as many deaths amongst the elderly from the virus as possible
We owe billions in national debt.....who will pay for all of this ...not me as I have "one foot in the grave" anyway
No it will be my children and grandchildren
What of those that have just left university or school......not many jobs around for them right now
And what about our children...their education has been disrupted for months on end
And what about those who have lost or are about to lose their jobs ...many will be left homeless without being able to pay mortgages or rent
Suicides are on the increase
Mental health problems have increased
Domestic abuse and child abuse has increased
And what about deaths from conditions other than Covid 19?
Thousands will die because their cancers have not been diagnosed and treated ...and even those already diagnosed have had their treatments stopped
For months outpatient departments were like ghost towns as no referrals for anything were carried out ....thus leading to deaths that may not have happened
Now the waiting lists for referrals or surgery are off the scale
In March, the GPs and Dentists disappeared and we haven't seen much of them since apart from telephone assessments!
I already know of one man who has died because he was not seen and examined ....try examining a swollen abdomen over the phone!!
The Swedish approach to this virus has interested me from the beginning but who knows if it would have been successful for larger, more urbanised countries
However I do think that if an entire country is locked up and people imprisoned for for months on end..Spain as an example ..it may delay the spread but not stop it when everyone is let loose again
Perhaps this virus just has to run its course through the population until and if a vaccine is found
These are just MY thoughts on the subject and are not meant to be confrontational
I will continue to try and be as safe as possible ..wearing a mask and keeping away from small unventilated areas.....in fact I have not visited our small corner shop since March for this very reason as the "load" of the virus could be much higher there than in a large supermarket.
I refuse to be afraid of this situation and I refuse to feel any fear...I will try to safeguard myself and those around me but if I get it..I get it and so be it ....but we must get on with our lives as we may have to live with this for a very long time View attachment 82967View attachment 82968View attachment 82969
Then again I will try and not get knocked down by a bus....
Look right....look left....look right again ...cross the road!!!
Well, that sounds perfectly ghastly.
I can remember back in the 1990s when all you needed was some t-shirts and jeans, a bag full of books and a sleeping bag, some hope and much love, and a few pesetas to get some vino tinto to share.
And a lovely menu del peregrino to look forward to.
No totalitarianism though.
I believe we are getting better at dealing with those infected, therefore the lower death counts versus earlier in the Pandemic.
Are you certain that you are using the correct term when you write "totalitarianism"?
I think that this epidemic is following the standard pattern of all such flu-like epidemics, and that the drop off in deaths is due as much to the most vulnerable and least resistant mostly having been already ill and/or passed away, whilst in the meanwhile herd immunity is being achieved in the general population -- bearing of course in mind that the situation remains bad in some countries that had previously avoided infections from the disease.
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.I gleaned a bit more information about what it's like on the ground along the Camino de Santiago in Spain in relation to potential Covid-19 cases: it has been claimed that it may currently take as long as 48 to 72 hours (2 to 3 days) before the result of a Covid-19 PCR test is known - although in the Palas/Arzua peregrina case it cannot have taken much longer than 6-8 hours, judging by the news reports. In Galicia, and presumably elsewhere, there is no government sponsored support for pilgrims, or for any other tourists for that matter, who await their test results or who turn out to be positive, ie the authorities do not provide accommodation or transport.
I'm so sorry that you are in this situation, and shame on those who are disrespecting you.More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
I was saddened to read this...it was a hard read. Thank you for posting. ❤❤More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
I disagree that we are anywhere near herd immunity, if that is even possible with an evolving virus. Herd immunity, as I understand, would be 70-80% of the worlds population either having had COVID or taking a vaccine.
I think we can stop calling 90% of these people pilgrims.
Since when has the Way of Saint James been about selfishnss?since when has the Way of Saint James been about pointing fingers ?.
Since when has the Way of Saint James been about selfishnss?
I think that this epidemic is following the standard pattern of all such flu-like epidemics, and that the drop off in deaths is due as much to the most vulnerable and least resistant mostly having been already ill and/or passed away, whilst in the meanwhile herd immunity is being achieved in the general population -- bearing of course in mind that the situation remains bad in some countries that had previously avoided infections from the disease.
The % needed for herd immunity varies tremendously from one disease to the next.
For instance, most seasonal flus involve about 50% of the population being immune to them before they even appear, and about 50% of people catching them being asymptomatic. (although in the worst seasonal flus, both of those % are meaningfully lower than ~50%)
Herd immunity for those illnesses is achieved at a FAR lower % than 70-80%. More like 5%-10% for an ordinary seasonal flu -- although doctors etc typically inflate that to 20%-25% just as a precautionary measure, I think against the risk of viral mutation, which is common in the flu.
By contrast, herd immunity for the black death clearly involved a very high % number.
Covid19 meanwhile has a high % of asymptomatic infections (~60% to ~80% varying by population), and an unknown % of people immune to it, but likely 10% minimum (this is an unknown, guesstimated as something between 15% & 60%, so caveat emptor, and take these immune % with a good solid pinch of salt).
But just from a statistical perspective, the % required for Covid19 herd immunity will be significantly lower than 70-80%, simply because the % of asymptomatic cases is so high (much higher than a typical seasonal flu).
Another update and further consolidation. Data for positive cases diagnosed for Thursday 11 September are now at nearly 12,000 cases instead of the 4,708 cases initially reported.On the 11th, only around 4,000 cases had been reported for the previous day, namely Thursday 10 September. Three days later, after the weekend, over 9,000 cases in total had been reported for Thursday 10 September. And I expect this number to visibly increase even a bit more when consolidated today and tomorrow.
And, at just a 0.5% death rate that would mean more than one million dead Americans.By the way, my number came from a CNN quote from the Mayo Clinic and a Bloomberg news report. The Mayo Clinic said that experts estimate 70% of Americans would have to contract and COVID and the survive for herd immunity to be achieved. That would be 229M Americans.
And, at just a 0.5% death rate that would mean more than one million dead Americans.
... and the once vulnerable are somehow now safe or have achieved some immunity.
I found this comment/opinion misleading and it might lead some to think we are near achieving herd immunity and the once vulnerable are somehow now safe or have achieved some immunity.
I understood @jpflavin1's statement to mean that the comment under question (yours) was misleading and might lead some to draw that conclusion, which is erroneous.?? If people who are vulnerable have so far escaped being infected, well good for them so far, but this doesn't magically make them safe.
That's not how herd immunity works.
There is a range of estimates about this.The Mayo Clinic said that experts estimate 70% of Americans would have to contract and COVID and the survive for herd immunity to be achieved.
The estimated herd immunity threshold ranges from 50% to the high 80%.
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I have noticed that this subject has been more about posturing and cut and paste/ attachments than addressing the fundamentals that I think (I hope) everyone understands.
I am expressing my disappointment and observations that is all.
Perhaps it is me, I dont know. I have waited a few days to see whether there might have been a bigger response to one of the more human posts that appeared on these threads. I saw three and then the thread changed tack again.
It was a post that contained all the frustration and anger about a the lack of respect shown to somebody who embodies everything that this camino is all about. A disregard of the most basic requirements we have been asked to adhere to to keep everyone safe.
I, too, share her upset and hurt that she experienced belligerence in her efforts.
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I have noticed that this subject has been more about posturing and cut and paste/ attachments than addressing the fundamentals that I think (I hope) everyone understands.
I am frustrated at times by the hubris that has been displayed on this forum and hope it changes. The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
Is "silence" in online threads telling?The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
I totally understand the frustration BB, but I wouldn't be so quick to assume the silence is hubris. It may as much be feelings of helplessness or sadness. We can't all march out to Casa Susana and act as bulldogs defending her from mask deniers...so in the face of that, speaking of the big picture gives both understanding and balance.I am frustrated at times by the hubris that has been displayed on this forum and hope it changes. The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
One thing that occurred to me today when looking at all this is that acquisition of herd immunity in a population depends on the durability of that immunity. If it's possible to be re-infected after getting the virus once and getting over it...geeze...all bets are off. From the second paper I linked to in post #152 above.It's somewhat opaque for Covid19 at present, as there's an unknown number of asymptomatics who have beaten the infection.
However, in real-world populations, the situation is often much more complex. Epidemiological and immunological factors, such as population structure, variation in transmission dynamics between populations, and waning immunity, will lead to variation in the extent of indirect protection conferred by herd immunity. Consequently, these aspects must be taken into account when discussing the establishment of herd immunity within populations. There are two possible approaches to build widespread SARS-CoV-2 immunity: (1) a mass vaccination campaign, which requires the development of an effective and safe vaccine, or (2) natural immunization of global populations with the virus over time. However, the consequences of the latter are serious and far-reaching—a large fraction of the human population would need to become infected with the virus, and millions would succumb to it. Thus, in the absence of a vaccination program, establishing herd immunity should not be the ultimate goal. Instead, an emphasis should be placed on policies that protect the most vulnerable groups in the hopes that herd immunity will eventually be achieved as a byproduct of such measures, although not the primary objective itself.
Me too! I hate trying to follow threads on Facebook. The format isn't anywhere near as useful as this forum.However, the thread structure of this forum allows you to engage in a topic or subtopic even a while after you read a post, instead of having to adapt to the rapid largely linear sequence of replies on Facebook and Twitter for example, and that is something I value about this forum.
Discussion?...I wish that were true.
I am expressing my disappointment and observations that is all.
One thing that occurred to me today when looking at all this is that acquisition of herd immunity in a population depends on the durability of that immunity. If it's possible to be re-infected after getting the virus once and getting over it...geeze...all bets are off.
Probably...though I can't find any models or math (yet) to post....but hmmmmm, maybe one for "the other thread" as this is speculative ?
I cannot accept your statement of what was required here. It is not a simple matter. I read that post and spent considerable time thinking about it - the actual mechanics of transmission, the concept of obeying the rules for the benefit of all, the obliviousness of the passing pilgrims, the question of pilgrims spread across both sides of the road even during good times, the resentment and anger, and the mental health and peace of the person who was distressed. I thought about making suggestions focused more on how she could manage her obvious distress, but then I decided that it was not my place to do so - to a stranger, in public. The "massive show of public support... and grateful thanks" that you demand, are not the style of everyone. Sorry.It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I understood @jpflavin1's statement to mean that the comment under question (yours) was misleading and might lead some to draw that conclusion, which is erroneous.
?? If people who are vulnerable have so far escaped being infected, well good for them so far, but this doesn't magically make them safe.
That's not how herd immunity works.
Please reread post #132. It includes your initial comment and my complete response.
Pacem...I don't know why you're pursuing this further
This was posted a week ago. I think the poster should correct his post because it is wrong.Quotation was deleted by moderator, since post was deleted on request of author. The following discussion now has limited context.
This is, I’m pretty certain now, the amount of time that one has to stay in quarantine when one is in Spain and tests positive, right?Spanish Covid19 quarantines seem likely to be reduced from 14 to 10 days.
But it might not affect pilgrims that badly ?
Yes, I live in Madrid and can't go to walk our lovely Sierra, which is important for me.
Commiserations to you.
I would not be able to say whether such a figure is alarming for such a large country as Spain. In any case, it is not the reason for the declaration of the state of alarm for Madrid. Here is a quote from the BBC of 1 October 2020 but you can read this in numerous sources, including the Spanish government's official information:Spain has 144115 new cases in the last 2 weeks. Thats alarming
Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) vid Johns Hopkins-university USA
We can talk statistics but in the end 144115 is a lot of people.I would not be able to say whether such a figure is alarming for such a large country as Spain. In any case, it is not the reason for the declaration of the state of alarm for Madrid. Here is a quote from the BBC of 1 October 2020 but you can read this in numerous sources, including the Spanish government's official information:
[On 30 September,] a majority of Spain's regional governments, who are in charge of healthcare, voted in favour of imposing restrictions in areas with more than 100,000 residents if they met three benchmarks:
- 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants [over a period of 14 days]
- 35% Covid patient occupancy in intensive care units
- positive results in 10% of tests [over a period of 14 days]
Madrid already meets the criteria. The law published [on 1 October] gives the city's authorities 48 hours to put in place the restrictions, which fall far short of the lockdown measures imposed nationally on 14 March.However, unlike other large cities like Leon for example, the Madrid authorities did not wish to comply with these restrictions. Now they have to.
Spain has 144115 new cases in the last 2 weeks. Thats alarming
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