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COVID COVID-19: Corona virus discussion (ROUND 8)

arthur1218

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
Camino de Tortuga
I'd like to show you how the media manipulate the data to raise the fear of the public.

catch.jpg
"Cases of covid in Spain increase by 12,183 in 24 hours; Friday 11th September"

So it seems that on Friday 12,183 new cases of covid were detected in Spain. That's the message you received, right?
Well, let's read more news then. But read carefully. I put some words in italics.

"Spain’s Health Ministry reported more new coronavirus infections on Friday than any other day since the pandemic began – 12,183 cases"

"The number of coronavirus cases in Spain has leapt by more than 12,000, health ministry figures showed Friday, the biggest jump in a 24 hour period since the pandemic began"

"The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Spain rose by 12,183 on Friday"

For those who know Spanish, some examples from the Spanish press:

"La cifra diaria de contagios de coronavirus marca un nuevo récord: Sanidad registra 12.183 nuevos casos"

"La semana termina con récord de casos de coronavirus en un día: 12.183"

And now please tell me in which of those headlines above, it is written, that during one day over 12,000 people in Spain got infected.

IN NONE OF THEM. If you don't believe me, read those titles again.

Actually, if you continue reading those media reports in depth, at one point, buried between many different numbers, you will probably find out that on Friday, 4708 people got infected with Covid. Not over 12,000 but 4708. That's a HUGE difference.

I found only one article where it was stated "The new cases were not all detected in the past 24 hours, since Spanish regions that are responsible for health care sometimes take several days to send figures to the central government" (source)

This is also what the media are being told during the government press conferences (watch), that those high numbers of cases include not one day, but several days, and they are just REPORTED on one day, due to the lag of reports from the regional covid centers.

I don't question that 4708 cases on a single day is a very high number, but it is way less than 12,183, and it is not a record daily number of detected cases. So please be careful and not fall for the alarmist headlines. The media outlets know that most of people don't read the smallprint.
 
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Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I am not sure why the landlord told me Americans are allowed into Spain, so wondered if there was some incident/change I missed. Sounds like you would rather I did not bring this up as it has been dealt with already.
No, that's not what it sounds like. What I say is this: there are better threads than this one to read up on what has already been posted about the topic of whether Americans are allowed into Spain and, further to the point, why there are Americans who are in Spain and in Compostela in particular or who even do walk the Camino, and to exchange further information and opinions about the topic than this thread which has a tendency to become a monster thread anyway. Note that we are on "ROUND 8" here.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I'd like to show you how the media manipulate the data to raise the fear of the public.
If I were inclined to do so, which I am not right now however, I would take issue with the claim that the Spanish media manipulate data to raise fear in the public.
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
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It has certainly been discussed but it has not been settled - because the situation is constantly changing and there are many complexities that make generalities inaccurate
Give everyone a piece of string to cut and they will all be different.🙄
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I wrote a long reply and then I deleted it again because there were some nagging doubts. Maybe someone with better knowledge and understanding can shed some light on this.

I collected data published by the Spanish health authorities that are widely available. One set are data that are described as positive cases either diagnosed or notified during the last 24 hours (it is not very clear to me what they are). The other set are data about accumulated positive cases. They are counted either from the beginning of the pandemic in Spain sometime in March (now over 500,000 cases) or from sometime in May (now over 300,000 cases). When I add the "daily cases" and even when I allow for an estimated number for Saturday and Sunday I get only a total of around 30,000 positive cases over 7 days. When I look at the difference of the accumulated cases over the same 7 or 8 days I get a total of around 80,000 cases. This seems like a discrepancy. Who can explain this in a meaningful way?
1600003412581.png
 
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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
This seems like a discrepancy. Who can explain this in a meaningful way?
The most logical explanation of the discrepancy between +4,708 in the last 24 hours but +12,183 accumulated would be that there were also 7,475 people previously positive who were declared negative, thus diminishing the daily increase in the number of positives but not the total accumulated increase in the number of positive tests.
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. I am saying sincerely as it relates to covid 19. It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
In the meantime, I tried to listen to a recent press conference for Spain. My Spanish is not so great but from what I understand it appears to me that the lower figure (recently around 4,000 positive cases) is a provisional figure of the positive cases diagnosed on the previous day and it "will increase over the coming days" (this is what I understood from the video of the press conference) while the larger figure (currently around 10,000 positive cases) refers to the positive test results over several previous days and a majority of them were notified with a delay of 1 or more days.

Both figures are currently on the increase, obviously, which is the main point for concern.

But if this is correct, then the "last 24 hours" figure does definitely not reflect the actual number of people who had their test result established as positive for a specific day. It looks like it amounts to only about a half of the actual number?

PS: It's about 5:30 minutes into this video: https://www.rtve.es/m/alacarta/videos/especiales-informativos/?media=tve&programId=40111. The speaker mentions first 4.137 cases and then nine thousand. It obviously refers to the state of play on Thursday 10 September 2020.
 
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Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. I am saying sincerely as it relates to covid 19. It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
I don't see it like this. Sometimes Covid-19 data as we find it published in the media or on non-specialist websites for the general public are a little confusing but all you need is the back of an old envelope and a pen to gain a better understanding. Admittedly, today it wasn't enough as I needed an old envelope and half of the reverse side of a sheet of paper on which I had printed something that I no longer needed. 😂
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
Ahhh, I will attempt a bit of amateur philosophising...

The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. I am saying sincerely as it relates to covid 19. It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
Scientists are working hard to understand Covid 19, and it is not a simple matter with quick and obvious facts. Reporters are trying to understand the state-of-the-science and communicate it to the public, but they often do not have the science or logic skills to do it well. Most scientists and reporters are trying their best to do a decent job, but their best is far from perfect, and there are even irresponsible people among them. To say it is "just the way it is" is to suggest that they cannot or should not improve.
Give everyone a piece of string to cut and they will all be different.🙄
We are not asking an existential question here. To carry the comparison further...
A headline such as "A string is 12,183 long" would be useless and irresponsible. I might think it means 12,183 mm; you think it means 12,183 inches; someone else thinks they are talking about a different piece of string.
It's the fault of no one...it's just the way it is.
It is the "fault" of everyone. Scientists should work correctly by the scientific method. Reporters should report numbers accurately. As consumers of this important information, we should question it - not just shrug and say it is unknowable.

This all illustrates the need to improve science and number literacy.
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
Thank you, @C clearly. I appreciate your response and taking the time to reply. I know you have the mind of an an engineer. I am an ISFJ, although I mostly agree with you...all the men in my family are either INTJ or ENTJ, so I know where you are mostly coming from. 🙂
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
I know where you are mostly coming from.
Scientists, engineers and reporters come in all personality types. 🤓 Just like teachers, accountants and mechanics. The facts are independent of the personality of the scientist or reporter.
 

Camino Chrissy

Take one step forward...then keep on walking..
Camino(s) past & future
Frances 2015;
Norte/Primitivo 2016;
Frances 2017;
Le Puy 2018;
Portuguese/FishermanTr. 2019
Scientists, engineers and reporters come in all personality types. 🤓 Just like teachers, accountants and mechanics. The facts are independent of the personality of the scientist or reporter.
I realize that, and in my family all three are definatly different one from another in pesonality.
Unfortunately, the facts about Covid are only partially known at this point in time, there is much speculation, and still much to be learned. When that happens, hopefully many of us on this forum will no longer be banned from travel to the EU and we are waiting for that day.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Right. It hasn't failed. The trial is on hold while one participant's adverse reaction is investigated.


"Trials of a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will resume after being paused due to a reported side effect in a patient in the UK"

Reported yesterday by the BBC.

My apologies if this has already been posted..
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances 2005,2008,2010,2015.camino Portuguese 2007 .primativo2012.camino Norte 2009.sjpdp to finisterre and muxia 2007. Le Puy to jpdp 2006. Via francigena vercelli to Lucca 2014. Lucca to Rome 2016.
Recently VN Walking said that the concerns and inconsistencies that people are justifiably angry about need to be addressed....and so they should!
I honestly do not think that these constant lockdowns and threats of another national lockdown are justified
This is instilling fear in people and I know of some who are so paralysed with fear is that they dare not go out of the house
At the beginning of all this in February our governments and scientists knew absolutely nothing about this virus so of course a complete lockdown was necessary ...they were all doing their best to address the situation but as time went on new facts and treatments began to emerge leading to a lower number of deaths due to better management and treatment...EG the use of Dexamethasone and that ventilators may do more harm than good

We now know too that the increase in infections is among the young, not the old but deaths are highest in the elderly, and those with health conditions and the obese.
Deaths amongst the young are rare and even when they have the virus, many are not affected or even show symptoms
So my question/thoughts are why not shield the vulnerable instead of shackling the entire population?
And heaven forbid anyone who challenges this....they are deemed idiots who " don't follow the science"
In fact a minister recently said to the young..."don't kill your granny" ...that's a heavy burden to bear and a stupid thing to say from someone that's supposed to be intelligent!
Months ago there wer countless demonstrations in London...we all expected a spike back then...it never came.
But now with more testing the positives have increased

Although science is evolving as we learn new things about this virus, the problem is that the virologists disagree with the scientists and the scientists disagree with each other

It just seems to me that the younger generation has been sacrificed in order to preserve the older generation ....this may sound very contentious but it's not meant to be and of course we must try and prevent as many deaths amongst the elderly from the virus as possible
We owe billions in national debt.....who will pay for all of this ...not me as I have "one foot in the grave" anyway
No it will be my children and grandchildren
What of those that have just left university or school......not many jobs around for them right now
And what about our children...their education has been disrupted for months on end
And what about those who have lost or are about to lose their jobs ...many will be left homeless without being able to pay mortgages or rent
Suicides are on the increase
Mental health problems have increased
Domestic abuse and child abuse has increased
And what about deaths from conditions other than Covid 19?
Thousands will die because their cancers have not been diagnosed and treated ...and even those already diagnosed have had their treatments stopped
For months outpatient departments were like ghost towns as no referrals for anything were carried out ....thus leading to deaths that may not have happened
Now the waiting lists for referrals or surgery are off the scale
In March, the GPs and Dentists disappeared and we haven't seen much of them since apart from telephone assessments!
I already know of one man who has died because he was not seen and examined ....try examining a swollen abdomen over the phone!!

The Swedish approach to this virus has interested me from the beginning but who knows if it would have been successful for larger, more urbanised countries
However I do think that if an entire country is locked up and people imprisoned for for months on end..Spain as an example ..it may delay the spread but not stop it when everyone is let loose again
Perhaps this virus just has to run its course through the population until and if a vaccine is found

These are just MY thoughts on the subject and are not meant to be confrontational
I will continue to try and be as safe as possible ..wearing a mask and keeping away from small unventilated areas.....in fact I have not visited our small corner shop since March for this very reason as the "load" of the virus could be much higher there than in a large supermarket.

I refuse to be afraid of this situation and I refuse to feel any fear...I will try to safeguard myself and those around me but if I get it..I get it and so be it ....but we must get on with our lives as we may have to live with this for a very long time image.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpeg

Then again I will try and not get knocked down by a bus....
Look right....look left....look right again ...cross the road!!!
 

Jomas

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
VF many times. Monaco-Lindau '15. Assisi-Pietralcina '17. CF '18. VF small part 09/20 next
This seems like a discrepancy. Who can explain this in a meaningful way?
ciao.
this table is too brief to be commented on .... I could hypothesize that in column 1 there is the increase, from the previous day, of the new new positive cases to the covid, while in column 3 there is the value given by the sum of the new infections (see column 1) +the number of those still infected (positive in previous days).
It is not known whether the last 14 days or other measure ... I hypothesize this because who published the press conference of Dr. Simon (10/09), mentions the 8,400 patients hospitalized with coronavirus, (of which 1,136 in intensive care).
But it's just a hypothesis .... I wonder in the midst of those numbers is there also the count of healed / discharged and dead?
maybe it wasn't your real question .... I tried :rolleyes:

edit
 
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Jomas

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
VF many times. Monaco-Lindau '15. Assisi-Pietralcina '17. CF '18. VF small part 09/20 next
todays news:

Six countries of the European Union (EU) began on Monday a project to test a secure communications infrastructure that allows interoperability of COVID-19 tracking applications and warns possible infected. The official tracking and alert applications of the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Latvia have been selected to start operating with this test server, reported the European Commission (EC), promoter of the initiative. Users will only need to install an application and can both report a positive COVID test and receive an alert, even if they travel to another Member State


just to put more pepper 🧐
 

simoneva

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
frances (2016)
norte/primitivo (2017)
aragon/frances/salvador/norte (2018)
frances (2019)
I'd like to show you how the media manipulate the data to raise the fear of the public.

View attachment 82917
"Cases of covid in Spain increase by 12,183 in 24 hours; Friday 11th September"

So it seems that on Friday 12,183 new cases of covid were detected in Spain. That's the message you received, right?
Well, let's read more news then. But read carefully. I put some words in italics.

"Spain’s Health Ministry reported more new coronavirus infections on Friday than any other day since the pandemic began – 12,183 cases"

"The number of coronavirus cases in Spain has leapt by more than 12,000, health ministry figures showed Friday, the biggest jump in a 24 hour period since the pandemic began"

"The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Spain rose by 12,183 on Friday"

For those who know Spanish, some examples from the Spanish press:

"La cifra diaria de contagios de coronavirus marca un nuevo récord: Sanidad registra 12.183 nuevos casos"

"La semana termina con récord de casos de coronavirus en un día: 12.183"

And now please tell me in which of those headlines above, it is written, that during one day over 12,000 people in Spain got infected.

IN NONE OF THEM. If you don't believe me, read those titles again.

Actually, if you continue reading those media reports in depth, at one point, buried between many different numbers, you will probably find out that on Friday, 4708 people got infected with Covid. Not over 12,000 but 4708. That's a HUGE difference.

I found only one article where it was stated "The new cases were not all detected in the past 24 hours, since Spanish regions that are responsible for health care sometimes take several days to send figures to the central government" (source)

This is also what the media are being told during the government press conferences (watch), that those high numbers of cases include not one day, but several days, and they are just REPORTED on one day, due to the lag of reports from the regional covid centers.

I don't question that 4708 cases on a single day is a very high number, but it is way less than 12,183, and it is not a record daily number of detected cases. So please be careful and not fall for the alarmist headlines. The media outlets know that most of people don't read the smallprint.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I don't question that 4708 cases on a single day is a very high number, but it is way less than 12,183, and it is not a record daily number of detected cases. So please be careful and not fall for the alarmist headlines.
So this was published on Friday: Total number of positive cases since the beginning of counting have increased from Thursday to Friday by 12,183 of which 4,708 were diagnosed/notified within the last 24 hours.

What is not yet included in this figure of 4,708 cases for Friday are those cases where a swab had been taken on Thursday or Friday and where it takes longer than 24 hours for the positive result to be known.

I'm curious to see today's (Monday's) data that will be published soon.
 
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simoneva

New Member
Camino(s) past & future
frances (2016)
norte/primitivo (2017)
aragon/frances/salvador/norte (2018)
frances (2019)
This website shows 22K on Friday; 8K+ for each of the previous 4 days; and historically the weekend has zero cases. https://www.coronatracker.com/country/spain/

I prefer this one that shows 3-4K for the last week and a clear downward trend in the 7 day average.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I'm curious to see today's (Monday's) data that will be published soon.
Here they are:

Since Friday, the total number of positive cases in Spain has increased by 27,404 of which 3,023 cases had been confirmed by a test during the last 24 hours - that's 3,023 cases versus those 4,708 cases during the last 24 hours on Friday (see El Mundo).

So: 27,404 - 3,023 = 24,381 . This considerable number belongs to people who tested positive and had their test taken sometime during the last few days but longer than 24 hours ago and one never knows when exactly. No doubt a considerable chunk needs to be added to the 4,708 for Friday!!! The total could easily reach 10,000 persons and more.

So the earlier comment about the newspapers "manipulating" data to "create panic" by favouring the larger of the two metrics over the smaller one contained a fallacy. The numbers that they publish and put in their headlines are a meaningful metric that measures the course of the epidemic - whether it accelerates, stagnates or slows down!

We tend to be fixed on numbers. 12,000 looks a lot larger than 4,000 and somehow more "panicky" but in reality we haven't a clue whether 12,000 or 4,000 is a reason for concern for a population of 40 million.

All this sounds probably not very clear to anyone but to me but I am quite pleased that I have now found the answer to my earlier question. 😁
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I prefer this one that shows 3-4K for the last week and a clear downward trend in the 7 day average.
Worldometer is my favourite "go to" place, too!
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Six countries of the European Union (EU) began on Monday a project to test a secure communications infrastructure that allows interoperability of COVID-19 tracking applications and warns possible infected. The official tracking and alert applications of the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Latvia have been selected to start operating with this test server, reported the European Commission (EC), promoter of the initiative. Users will only need to install an application and can both report a positive COVID test and receive an alert, even if they travel to another Member State
Well, that sounds perfectly ghastly.

I can remember back in the 1990s when all you needed was some t-shirts and jeans, a bag full of books and a sleeping bag, some hope and much love, and a few pesetas to get some vino tinto to share.

And a lovely menu del peregrino to look forward to.

No totalitarianism though.
 

jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
Recently VN Walking said that the concerns and inconsistencies that people are justifiably angry about need to be addressed....and so they should!
I honestly do not think that these constant lockdowns and threats of another national lockdown are justified
This is instilling fear in people and I know of some who are so paralysed with fear is that they dare not go out of the house
At the beginning of all this in February our governments and scientists knew absolutely nothing about this virus so of course a complete lockdown was necessary ...they were all doing their best to address the situation but as time went on new facts and treatments began to emerge leading to a lower number of deaths due to better management and treatment...EG the use of Dexamethasone and that ventilators may do more harm than good

We now know too that the increase in infections is among the young, not the old but deaths are highest in the elderly, and those with health conditions and the obese.
Deaths amongst the young are rare and even when they have the virus, many are not affected or even show symptoms
So my question/thoughts are why not shield the vulnerable instead of shackling the entire population?
And heaven forbid anyone who challenges this....they are deemed idiots who " don't follow the science"
In fact a minister recently said to the young..."don't kill your granny" ...that's a heavy burden to bear and a stupid thing to say from someone that's supposed to be intelligent!
Months ago there wer countless demonstrations in London...we all expected a spike back then...it never came.
But now with more testing the positives have increased

Although science is evolving as we learn new things about this virus, the problem is that the virologists disagree with the scientists and the scientists disagree with each other

It just seems to me that the younger generation has been sacrificed in order to preserve the older generation ....this may sound very contentious but it's not meant to be and of course we must try and prevent as many deaths amongst the elderly from the virus as possible
We owe billions in national debt.....who will pay for all of this ...not me as I have "one foot in the grave" anyway
No it will be my children and grandchildren
What of those that have just left university or school......not many jobs around for them right now
And what about our children...their education has been disrupted for months on end
And what about those who have lost or are about to lose their jobs ...many will be left homeless without being able to pay mortgages or rent
Suicides are on the increase
Mental health problems have increased
Domestic abuse and child abuse has increased
And what about deaths from conditions other than Covid 19?
Thousands will die because their cancers have not been diagnosed and treated ...and even those already diagnosed have had their treatments stopped
For months outpatient departments were like ghost towns as no referrals for anything were carried out ....thus leading to deaths that may not have happened
Now the waiting lists for referrals or surgery are off the scale
In March, the GPs and Dentists disappeared and we haven't seen much of them since apart from telephone assessments!
I already know of one man who has died because he was not seen and examined ....try examining a swollen abdomen over the phone!!

The Swedish approach to this virus has interested me from the beginning but who knows if it would have been successful for larger, more urbanised countries
However I do think that if an entire country is locked up and people imprisoned for for months on end..Spain as an example ..it may delay the spread but not stop it when everyone is let loose again
Perhaps this virus just has to run its course through the population until and if a vaccine is found

These are just MY thoughts on the subject and are not meant to be confrontational
I will continue to try and be as safe as possible ..wearing a mask and keeping away from small unventilated areas.....in fact I have not visited our small corner shop since March for this very reason as the "load" of the virus could be much higher there than in a large supermarket.

I refuse to be afraid of this situation and I refuse to feel any fear...I will try to safeguard myself and those around me but if I get it..I get it and so be it ....but we must get on with our lives as we may have to live with this for a very long time View attachment 82967View attachment 82968View attachment 82969

Then again I will try and not get knocked down by a bus....
Look right....look left....look right again ...cross the road!!!
I realize these are just your thoughts. I am not afraid of the virus but I am following guidelines established in my Country, state and county. We are addressing a virus that 12 months ago was unknown. I believe we are getting better at dealing with those infected, therefore the lower death counts versus earlier in the Pandemic.

Each countrys' leadership has managed this Pandemic in their own way and made choices based on medical and economic inputs available to them and their own biases. Two extreme approaches are probably Sweden and New Zealand. We will not know for sure which of the many approaches will be considered the best until a forensic revue of the outcome is completed.

That said, I hope it will be a worldwide revue done on agreed upon assumptions. I know this is naive to believe we could work as human beings to resolve a problem that affects us all but "HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL'.

On a personal level, I believe New Zealand has taken the best approach.

We will find a way to live with this virus. If we do not find a way to react to future threats like COVID as a race of humans versus 218 countries, we might not survive the next one.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
CF : stages 2008, 2017, 2018 ; completed.
Well, that sounds perfectly ghastly.

I can remember back in the 1990s when all you needed was some t-shirts and jeans, a bag full of books and a sleeping bag, some hope and much love, and a few pesetas to get some vino tinto to share.

And a lovely menu del peregrino to look forward to.

No totalitarianism though.
Are you certain that you are using the correct term when you write "totalitarianism"?

Here is a definition : "a system of government that is centralized and dictatorial and requires complete subservience to the state."

I could detect no hint of compulsion in the post describing the system : "Users will only need to install an application and can both report a positive COVID test and receive an alert, even if they travel to another Member State "

This seems entirely voluntary to me and makes perfect sense in a Europe where cross-border movement may be frequent and indeed daily e.g. the large numbers commuting to Switzerland from France, Germany and Italy.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I believe we are getting better at dealing with those infected, therefore the lower death counts versus earlier in the Pandemic.
I think that this epidemic is following the standard pattern of all such flu-like epidemics, and that the drop off in deaths is due as much to the most vulnerable and least resistant mostly having been already ill and/or passed away, whilst in the meanwhile herd immunity is being achieved in the general population -- bearing of course in mind that the situation remains bad in some countries that had previously avoided infections from the disease.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Are you certain that you are using the correct term when you write "totalitarianism"?
Yes, and I'm not referring just to this or that smartphone app, but to a general tendency in a broader field.

BUT the rule here is no politics, so that's as far as I'll go.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
There was so far one case of a person getting Covid19 more than once -- there are now four in Catalonia.

Now, I'm not sure if any of them are just positive tests.

But one person who was ill in March is now ill again, and in intensive care.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I am going to address this again because it is somewhat dear to my heart: information and how we receive it, process it and acknowledge and forward it, sometimes without questioning, and how easy it often is in this day and age to get to the bottom of it.

There was a appeal in this thread, quite justified, that we must read carefully, and a claim, understandable but ultimately wrong, based on one example, that the media (Spanish media in this case) are alarmist and intentionally misleading to sow panic. Basically it said that readers can easily think that, on one particular day, around 12,000 people were tested positively for the Covid-19 virus while in reality it was only 4,000 people. All this was based on numbers communicated by the Spanish ministry of health and published in the news media.

It sounded plausible.

However, dig just a tiny little bit, in fact just look at the information on the ministry's website, and you see that the daily number (= cases of the last 24 hours) is a provisional number. It is actually not terribly meaningful, and the Spanish media are right to not give it a prominent place in their headlines. Because the figure gets adjusted ("consolidated") day after day as soon as the various clinics and other health stations report their figures with delays of more than 24 hours.

The comparison below is as good as self explanatory. On the 11th, only around 4,000 cases had been reported for the previous day, namely Thursday 10 September. Three days later, after the weekend, over 9,000 cases in total had been reported for Thursday 10 September. And I expect this number to visibly increase even a bit more when consolidated today and tomorrow.

BTW, you can easily count the days and dates: the low bar is always the Sunday. ☺

Comparison.jpg
 
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jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
I think that this epidemic is following the standard pattern of all such flu-like epidemics, and that the drop off in deaths is due as much to the most vulnerable and least resistant mostly having been already ill and/or passed away, whilst in the meanwhile herd immunity is being achieved in the general population -- bearing of course in mind that the situation remains bad in some countries that had previously avoided infections from the disease.
I disagree that we are anywhere near herd immunity, if that is even possible with an evolving virus. Herd immunity, as I understand, would be 70-80% of the worlds population either having had COVID or taking a vaccine. We are no where near that. I also do not believe the most vulnerable/least resistant have been ill, passed away or even been exposed.

The development of Theraputics and the use of transfusions has contributed to a reduced the death toll. The more vulnerable taking greater precautions and overall more awareness is also contributing to less mortality.
 

casa susana

Member
Camino(s) past & future
camino frances 2012
I gleaned a bit more information about what it's like on the ground along the Camino de Santiago in Spain in relation to potential Covid-19 cases: it has been claimed that it may currently take as long as 48 to 72 hours (2 to 3 days) before the result of a Covid-19 PCR test is known - although in the Palas/Arzua peregrina case it cannot have taken much longer than 6-8 hours, judging by the news reports. In Galicia, and presumably elsewhere, there is no government sponsored support for pilgrims, or for any other tourists for that matter, who await their test results or who turn out to be positive, ie the authorities do not provide accommodation or transport.
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
I'm so sorry that you are in this situation, and shame on those who are disrespecting you.
I understand your anger, and I feel the same occasionally when I go to the store and see people not taking proper precautions and following the mask mandate. It's so frustrating when you are doing the right thing, but so many around you are flouting the rules. It's like when you are young in school, and a few students spoil things for the rest of the class. Bug (((hugs))) to you.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
@casa susana...I am sorry. People are being awful and beyond inconsiderate. I think we can stop calling 90% of these people pilgrims. Whatever they are called, may they not be covid vectors!!
Praying for your health, safety, and well-being....
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
I was saddened to read this...it was a hard read. Thank you for posting. ❤❤
 

nycwalking

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
Ourense to Santiago (2019), CF: (2014, 2004, 2002, 2001). On to Fisterra, (2002, 4, 14).
More on what it's like living on the Camino. After spending 6 years offering a donativo table and a place to rest for pilgrims, I am afraid I have lost my compassion and have developed a serious anger problem, such that I don't like myself very much these days. And the cause you may well ask? Pilgrims not showing care and respect for me and fellow residents, by wearing a mask as they pass through what is our home, but to pilgrims it is a public space, whereby the wearing of masks is compulsory.
The issue came to a head a couple of days ago, as I was wearing an FFP2 mask to clean out the open drain beside my home - but on the Camino. In the hour this job took me about 100 pilgrims passed me and about 10 wore masks.
My latest tactic of trying to shame pilgrims is not working: it goes like this: the pilgrim says Hola. I say no hola because you don't respect me by wearing a mask. The response varies from, (the majority), ignoring me, or arguing with me they are not necessary, to a tiny minority, maybe 5 people saying perdon, and fishing around in the depths of their bag for their mask.
By the time I retreated inside, I was very stressed, from arguing with pilgrims and wearing an FFP2 mask, which protects me and you, (whereas, a surgical mask does not protect the wearer, but others), which is why I see it as a mark of respect and care for others to wear a mask.
Later in the day I had to drive to Portomarin, and as usual pilgrims were walking all over the road, or splitting to some each side, and leaving the car driver to try to squeeze through the middle. For just a few seconds I was so overwhelmed by anger, I felt like running the pilgrims over. I am very saddened that this is happening to me. Today, I have taken to my bed with an upset stomach, high blood pressure and a headache.
Early pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela undertook a pilgrimage to attone for their sins and hopefully earn a ticket to heaven. One of the 10 commandments is do unto others as thy would have done to oneself. Come on pilgrims please embrace some basic Christian ideology, and start caring for others by wearing a mask.
Ah, @casa susana!

Perk up.

I remember your lead up to the albergue’s purchase, renovations, and opening.

You were so excited to realize a dream.

Don’t let the nightmare of Covid, and pilgrims nightmarish antics take away your joy.

There’s a couple of lines from a couple of songs adequate to this situation: “one monkey don’t stop no show”, and “one bad apple don’t spoil the whole bunch”.

Hang in and hang on.

Last song tune: “the Sun will come out tomorrow but you gotta hang on to tomorrow come what may”!
 
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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I disagree that we are anywhere near herd immunity, if that is even possible with an evolving virus. Herd immunity, as I understand, would be 70-80% of the worlds population either having had COVID or taking a vaccine.
The % needed for herd immunity varies tremendously from one disease to the next.

For instance, most seasonal flus involve about 50% of the population being immune to them before they even appear, and about 50% of people catching them being asymptomatic. (although in the worst seasonal flus, both of those % are meaningfully lower than ~50%)

Herd immunity for those illnesses is achieved at a FAR lower % than 70-80%. More like 5%-10% for an ordinary seasonal flu -- although doctors etc typically inflate that to 20%-25% just as a precautionary measure, I think against the risk of viral mutation, which is common in the flu.

By contrast, herd immunity for the black death clearly involved a very high % number.

Covid19 meanwhile has a high % of asymptomatic infections (~60% to ~80% varying by population), and an unknown % of people immune to it, but likely 10% minimum (this is an unknown, guesstimated as something between 15% & 60%, so caveat emptor, and take these immune % with a good solid pinch of salt).

But just from a statistical perspective, the % required for Covid19 herd immunity will be significantly lower than 70-80%, simply because the % of asymptomatic cases is so high (much higher than a typical seasonal flu).
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Perhaps when, especially this year, the phrase "my camino" wasn't being used.
The camino could provide more than you expect and, I doubt very much, that this ladies experiences are unique.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Some French scientists seem to have discovered why some Covid19 sufferers lose their sense of smell -- they have discovered internal nasal bruising, partially or completely blocking the olfactory channels inside the nose.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Since when has the Way of Saint James been about selfishnss?
Clear lack of respect on the one hand and finger-pointing on the other doesn't much sound like the Camino to me, though of course I do have great sympathy for casa susana from the stress that she and other Hospitaleros must be under in these hard circumstances.
 

jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
I think that this epidemic is following the standard pattern of all such flu-like epidemics, and that the drop off in deaths is due as much to the most vulnerable and least resistant mostly having been already ill and/or passed away, whilst in the meanwhile herd immunity is being achieved in the general population -- bearing of course in mind that the situation remains bad in some countries that had previously avoided infections from the disease.
We could debate the % of what is considered herd immunity. Can we agree that it is greater than 1%???

ie: 7.8 billion people on earth, 30M confirmed COVID cases less than 1% of World population

1M deaths world wide - 730M people over 65 - number excludes other vulnerable people less than 1%

Your statement above suggests we are achieving herd immunity and the most vulnerable have been "Ill and/or passed away".

I found your comment/opinion misleading and it might lead some to think we are near achieving herd immunity and the once vulnerable are somehow now safe or have achieved some immunity.

Therefore, my disagreement and comment. The reason for reduced mortality, imo, is due to Theraputics, transfusions and medical professionals adapting their treatment of Infected.
 
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jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
The % needed for herd immunity varies tremendously from one disease to the next.

For instance, most seasonal flus involve about 50% of the population being immune to them before they even appear, and about 50% of people catching them being asymptomatic. (although in the worst seasonal flus, both of those % are meaningfully lower than ~50%)

Herd immunity for those illnesses is achieved at a FAR lower % than 70-80%. More like 5%-10% for an ordinary seasonal flu -- although doctors etc typically inflate that to 20%-25% just as a precautionary measure, I think against the risk of viral mutation, which is common in the flu.

By contrast, herd immunity for the black death clearly involved a very high % number.

Covid19 meanwhile has a high % of asymptomatic infections (~60% to ~80% varying by population), and an unknown % of people immune to it, but likely 10% minimum (this is an unknown, guesstimated as something between 15% & 60%, so caveat emptor, and take these immune % with a good solid pinch of salt).

But just from a statistical perspective, the % required for Covid19 herd immunity will be significantly lower than 70-80%, simply because the % of asymptomatic cases is so high (much higher than a typical seasonal flu).
By the way, my number came from a CNN quote from the Mayo Clinic and a Bloomberg news report. The Mayo Clinic said that experts estimate 70% of Americans would have to contract COVID and survive for herd immunity to be achieved. That would be 229M Americans.
 
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Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
On the 11th, only around 4,000 cases had been reported for the previous day, namely Thursday 10 September. Three days later, after the weekend, over 9,000 cases in total had been reported for Thursday 10 September. And I expect this number to visibly increase even a bit more when consolidated today and tomorrow.
Another update and further consolidation. Data for positive cases diagnosed for Thursday 11 September are now at nearly 12,000 cases instead of the 4,708 cases initially reported.

Comparison.jpg
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
By the way, my number came from a CNN quote from the Mayo Clinic and a Bloomberg news report. The Mayo Clinic said that experts estimate 70% of Americans would have to contract and COVID and the survive for herd immunity to be achieved. That would be 229M Americans.
And, at just a 0.5% death rate that would mean more than one million dead Americans.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
... and the once vulnerable are somehow now safe or have achieved some immunity.
?? If people who are vulnerable have so far escaped being infected, well good for them so far, but this doesn't magically make them safe.

That's not how herd immunity works.
 

C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
I found this comment/opinion misleading and it might lead some to think we are near achieving herd immunity and the once vulnerable are somehow now safe or have achieved some immunity.
?? If people who are vulnerable have so far escaped being infected, well good for them so far, but this doesn't magically make them safe.
That's not how herd immunity works.
I understood @jpflavin1's statement to mean that the comment under question (yours) was misleading and might lead some to draw that conclusion, which is erroneous.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
Here are some reliable primary sources to clarify what we're talking about:
for basic definitions; it's a decade old.
And:

For more up-to-date specifics.

I need to read them carefully before I comment further, but they both look very helpful in defining exactly what we're talking about.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
The Mayo Clinic said that experts estimate 70% of Americans would have to contract and COVID and the survive for herd immunity to be achieved.
There is a range of estimates about this.
From the second paper in my post abofe there is this figure (B is the one I'm refering to):
Screenshot_20200917-114055_Firefox.jpg

The estimated herd immunity threshold ranges from 50% to the high 80%. What is clear regardless of where it falls in thst range is is that the HIT is higher for covid than for H1N1 influenza - translating into more deaths. I leave it to you to do the back-of-the-envelope calculations for the numbers in your own country.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Perhaps it is me, I dont know. I have waited a few days to see whether there might have been a bigger response to one of the more human posts that appeared on these threads. I saw three and then the thread changed tack again.
It was a post that contained all the frustration and anger about a the lack of respect shown to somebody who embodies everything that this camino is all about. A disregard of the most basic requirements we have been asked to adhere to to keep everyone safe.
I, too, share her upset and hurt that she experienced belligerence in her efforts.
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I have noticed that this subject has been more about posturing and cut and paste/ attachments than addressing the fundamentals that I think (I hope) everyone understands.
I am frustrated at times by the hubris that has been displayed on this forum and hope it changes. The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
The estimated herd immunity threshold ranges from 50% to the high 80%.
It's usually a somewhat increased % number compared to what a perfectly accurate % number would be -- and for good reason, as doctors and medical experts have to be very cautious with these things, as sometimes a disease can behave unexpectedly.

It's somewhat opaque for Covid19 at present, as there's an unknown number of asymptomatics who have beaten the infection.

Lots of good information in your two posts thanks.
 

Turga

Camino tortuga
Camino(s) past & future
CF (Aug/Sep 2017)
CF (Aug/Sep 2018)
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I don’t believe people need to be told to which extent and in which way they are required to respond/react in this forum.

I have noticed that this subject has been more about posturing and cut and paste/ attachments than addressing the fundamentals that I think (I hope) everyone understands.
The title of this thread is “Corona virus discussion” which to me seems to be a broad term that could comprise a wide range of discussion points – not confined to what somebody believes to be the “right” or the “fundamental” issues. Perhaps the subject of a new thread? – that could be interesting...

Being frustrated at times is to be expected on a public forum where different people express personal opinions; I guess it is a natural consequence of discussing from different points of view.
 

Bristle boy

If not now...when? If not you...who?...........
Camino(s) past & future
2019
Discussion?...I wish that were true.
I am expressing my disappointment and observations that is all.
 

SabineP

Camino = Gratitude + Compassion.
Camino(s) past & future
some and then more. see my signature.
Perhaps it is me, I dont know. I have waited a few days to see whether there might have been a bigger response to one of the more human posts that appeared on these threads. I saw three and then the thread changed tack again.
It was a post that contained all the frustration and anger about a the lack of respect shown to somebody who embodies everything that this camino is all about. A disregard of the most basic requirements we have been asked to adhere to to keep everyone safe.
I, too, share her upset and hurt that she experienced belligerence in her efforts.
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I have noticed that this subject has been more about posturing and cut and paste/ attachments than addressing the fundamentals that I think (I hope) everyone understands.
I am frustrated at times by the hubris that has been displayed on this forum and hope it changes. The silence, in some quarters, is telling.

I have all faith in the work and interventions ( when needed ) of the wise moderators here in this forum.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
Is "silence" in online threads telling?

There is no silence. There is just an absence or an abundance of replies and "likes" or other visible reactions to a post.

You do not know what other posters think or whether they have even read a post. A lack of any visible reaction to one particular post can mean approval of all or some parts of a post, disapproval of all or some parts of a post, neutrality, desinterest, interest, empathy on the part of the reader ... you cannot tell what it is because you do not see any reaction.

You cannot will posters into a desired reaction, or any kind of reaction, in this kind of communication sphere.

And if anyone wonders what on earth this is all about ... it's about post #133 in this thread.
 
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Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
Also, the thread did not "change tack again". Long complex threads, like this one, often branch out into different subsets of discussion on a topic and posters may prefer to follow a particular branch or line of discussion. In some online forums, this branching system is made visible but not here.

However, the thread structure of this forum allows you to engage in a topic or subtopic even a while after you read a post, instead of having to adapt to the rapid largely linear sequence of replies on Facebook and Twitter for example, and that is something I value about this forum.
 
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VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
I am frustrated at times by the hubris that has been displayed on this forum and hope it changes. The silence, in some quarters, is telling.
I totally understand the frustration BB, but I wouldn't be so quick to assume the silence is hubris. It may as much be feelings of helplessness or sadness. We can't all march out to Casa Susana and act as bulldogs defending her from mask deniers...so in the face of that, speaking of the big picture gives both understanding and balance.

Personally, I was deeply saddened by her posts, both by the selfish actions of many and how this whole episode is closing her heart. But what to do?


It's somewhat opaque for Covid19 at present, as there's an unknown number of asymptomatics who have beaten the infection.
One thing that occurred to me today when looking at all this is that acquisition of herd immunity in a population depends on the durability of that immunity. If it's possible to be re-infected after getting the virus once and getting over it...geeze...all bets are off. From the second paper I linked to in post #152 above.
However, in real-world populations, the situation is often much more complex. Epidemiological and immunological factors, such as population structure, variation in transmission dynamics between populations, and waning immunity, will lead to variation in the extent of indirect protection conferred by herd immunity. Consequently, these aspects must be taken into account when discussing the establishment of herd immunity within populations. There are two possible approaches to build widespread SARS-CoV-2 immunity: (1) a mass vaccination campaign, which requires the development of an effective and safe vaccine, or (2) natural immunization of global populations with the virus over time. However, the consequences of the latter are serious and far-reaching—a large fraction of the human population would need to become infected with the virus, and millions would succumb to it. Thus, in the absence of a vaccination program, establishing herd immunity should not be the ultimate goal. Instead, an emphasis should be placed on policies that protect the most vulnerable groups in the hopes that herd immunity will eventually be achieved as a byproduct of such measures, although not the primary objective itself.
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Camino(s) past & future
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
However, the thread structure of this forum allows you to engage in a topic or subtopic even a while after you read a post, instead of having to adapt to the rapid largely linear sequence of replies on Facebook and Twitter for example, and that is something I value about this forum.
Me too! I hate trying to follow threads on Facebook. The format isn't anywhere near as useful as this forum.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Discussion?...I wish that were true.
I am expressing my disappointment and observations that is all.
Bristle boy, nobody wants to experience the kind of frustrating and deeply annoying sorts of experiences on the Camino that casa susana has reported, and it is not at all pleasant to hear about these sorts of interpersonal difficulties arising on the Way of Saint James -- which among many other things, is a pathway towards healing, a pathway towards love, and not just another urban or suburban environment of ongoing conflicts.

But teaching and learning the good and better Ways of the Camino de Santiago does not, or should not, involve the excoriation of those who may not perfectly live up to those lofty ideals -- and to be honest, none of us ever will, not perfectly.

Pilgrims who are not behaving according to the minimal standards of what we hope for on our Camino are unlikely to learn a better manner of pilgrimage from even the most justifiable and frustrated reactions of blowing-your-top-ness against their most blatantly egregious failures.

And all of this is being greatly exacerbated by the onerous conditions in which the Hospitaleros must work in, and the Peregrinos walk in, during these Covid19 measures.

--

Apart from that, a few extra comments --

Of course, every Pilgrim here is supportive of casa susana in her circumstances !! I mean, it kind of goes without saying ; but well, sometimes it does actually need to be properly said. It's one of those times, and you were quite right to remind us of it.

Having said that, there will be many Pilgrims currently on the Camino who live in places that have no strict masking rules, and furthermore those rules are fairly variable along the length of the various Caminos themselves. A Pilgrim from an urban location where masking is strictly mandatory simply will not have the same attitude to masking up as one from a rural location, where masking is perfectly voluntary except at the shops.

This will necessarily translate into conflicting views on masking on the Camino.

IMO understanding each other is the key here, not withdrawing.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
One thing that occurred to me today when looking at all this is that acquisition of herd immunity in a population depends on the durability of that immunity. If it's possible to be re-infected after getting the virus once and getting over it...geeze...all bets are off.
Well yeah, but so far it does seem to be an exceedingly rare occurrence.

but hmmmmm, maybe one for "the other thread" as this is speculative ?
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
This very recent review paper in Nature explicitly assumes immunity is stable:

I'll cross-post this on the math thread @JabbaPapa , with a few more things I've found.
The universal conclusion is that trying to attain herd immunity in the absence of a vaccination comes with an impossible cost.
 
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C clearly

Moderator
Staff member
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016), VDLP (2017), Mozarabe (2018), Vasco/Bayona (2019)
It was a post that required a massive show of support within this forum and grateful thanks for all her efforts.
I cannot accept your statement of what was required here. It is not a simple matter. I read that post and spent considerable time thinking about it - the actual mechanics of transmission, the concept of obeying the rules for the benefit of all, the obliviousness of the passing pilgrims, the question of pilgrims spread across both sides of the road even during good times, the resentment and anger, and the mental health and peace of the person who was distressed. I thought about making suggestions focused more on how she could manage her obvious distress, but then I decided that it was not my place to do so - to a stranger, in public. The "massive show of public support... and grateful thanks" that you demand, are not the style of everyone. Sorry.
 

jpflavin1

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(10,11,17), Vasco(12), Salvador(13), CP(13), CN(14), Madrid (16), Mozarabe (18), VdlP(19)
?? If people who are vulnerable have so far escaped being infected, well good for them so far, but this doesn't magically make them safe.

That's not how herd immunity works.
Please reread post #132. It includes your initial comment and my complete response.
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Please reread post #132. It includes your initial comment and my complete response.
I have clarified what you thought was "possibly misleading" (but were you or was anyone else actually misled ?), so I don't know why you're pursuing this further -- this isn't the kind of forum for those sorts of extended online arguments.
 

VNwalking

Wandering in big circles
Camino(s) past & future
Francés ('14/'15)
San Olav/CF ('16)
Baztanés/CF ('17)
Ingles ('18)
Vasco/CF/Invierno ('19)
I don't know why you're pursuing this further
Pacem...
We are all on different time zones and on different posting schedules, @JabbaPapa . So the loose ends in these discussions sometimes get picked up a long time later.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
I'd like to show you how the media manipulate the data to raise the fear of the public.
"Cases of covid in Spain increase by 12,183 in 24 hours; Friday 11th September"
So it seems that on Friday 12,183 new cases of covid were detected in Spain. That's the message you received, right? [...] Actually, if you continue reading those media reports in depth, at one point, buried between many different numbers, you will probably find out that on Friday, 4708 people got infected with Covid. Not over 12,000 but 4708. That's a HUGE difference. [...] i don't question that 4708 cases on a single day is a very high number, but it is way less than 12,183, and it is not a record daily number of detected cases. So please be careful and not fall for the alarmist headlines. The media outlets know that most of people don't read the smallprint.
This was posted a week ago. I think the poster should correct his post because it is wrong.

These "daily cases" (here: 4,708) are provisional data. These data get consolidated every day as more diagnosed positive cases for the same date (day) get notified and validated with a delay of one or more days.

For the record, the number 4,708 refers to Thursday 10 September, not Friday.

We are now a week later and we can assume that there will be little change during future consolidations. It is now known that the actual number for Thursday 10 September is not 4,708 cases, it is more than 12,000 cases. The following day, Friday 11 September, it was even higher and an all-time record since the beginning of July.

This number of actually diagnosed positive cases for one single day (>12,000) is in the same ballpark as the number of 12,183 cases ("increase over several days"*). Think about it for a little while. It's not random. 12,183 was an excellent metric a week ago.

By publishing the official data in the way they did, the Spanish media did not manipulate these data to raise fear in the public. They provided meaningful information about the ongoing increase of positive cases on that day.

cons.jpg

Source: www.mscbs.gob.es - Actualización no 205 & 210. Enfermedad por el coronavirus

*) "increase over several days" on day n is defined as the difference between total confirmed cases since 11 May on day n and total confirmed cases since 11 May on day n-1.

Hint: Modify the 3-digit actualisation number in the url to view earlier actualisation reports instead of the current actualisation report - https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...Cov/documentos/Actualizacion_210_COVID-19.pdf
 
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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Several areas in Madrid are going back into semi-lockdown (people allowed out only for essential activities, shopping, and exercise) -- and gatherings of more than six people have been forbidden throughout the Madrid region.
 

Kathar1na

Member
Camino(s) past & future
To Santiago and beyond (from home; Voie de Tours; Camino Francés; Biskaya; Manche; Via Brabantica)
Where do you see yourself on the doubter/denier vs worrier/alarmist continuum on COVID-19 ☺🤔?

I recently came across a blog entry that deals with this question. It's worth reading, I think, to reflect on the nature of our discussions and our attitude to others on the continuum. Some of the comments in the blog entry are USA specific. Others are more universal. I realised that I had been closer to the worrier/alarmist end of the scale in March and April than I am now. Six months later and knowing a lot more about Covid-19, I see that I have nudged myself away from my early position and into the other direction, more towards "middle ground". One has to read the whole blog entry but I quote some bits as a "taster":

Another related theme I see at work in this crisis is a struggle to find balance between competing extremes - between denial and alarmism, glass half full or half empty, between paralysis by irrational fear and careless lack of vigilance inviting disaster. We might classify people at the two extremes in their viewpoints towards this crisis as "deniers" and "alarmists".
  • The "deniers" are skeptical about whether this crisis is as bad as the media portrays and others believe, and there are certain facts that they hold on to and focus upon: [number of points]

  • The "alarmists" are scared to death of this virus, are frustrated that others do not seem to be taking it seriously enough, and are ready to take any step to prevent viral spread, and there are certain facts they hold on to and focus upon: [number of points]
People who are entrenched on one of these two sides clearly see the folly in the other side and are thus emboldened in the veracity of their beliefs. Both sides tend to minimize information that feeds the viewpoints on the other side, and instead focus on the information that reinforces their own beliefs.
There is middle ground between these two extremes, and if we can find it as a society we can work together to navigate this crisis. [number of suggestions]

The website is called Covid-19 Data Science and it is run by Jeffrey S. Morris who is a statistical data scientist and Director of Biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania. The motto is: Finding the signal in the noise of Covid-19.

Enjoy reading!
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Camino(s) past & future
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Spanish Covid19 quarantines seem likely to be reduced from 14 to 10 days.
 

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