- Time of past OR future Camino
- Several and counting...
For 2024 Pilgrims: €50,- donation = 1 year with no ads on the forum + 90% off any 2024 Guide. More here. (Discount code sent to you by Private Message after your donation) |
---|
Does anyone know of any estimate (and I don't know how it would be possible to make it) of the number of people who walk each year, (or in 2018), who didn't finish in Santiago or who, if they did, did not collect a compostela or distance certificate?
I know 327,378 collected Compostela last year.
And OK I know the answer to my question does not really exist - I could walk 100km from my home in UK 'towards Santiago' and clearly this could never be counted but I could say I was walking to Santiago.
But what about an estimate at least for people who walk within Spain?
Thanks. I was inclined to think there must probably be at least as many again as those who DO collect a compostela.Dont quote me here to get a loan but I think that at least one million people per year are walking on the various Spain Caminos
I am neither an auditor or a statistician but I am an enthusiastic amateur pedant. According to the pilgrim office statistics for last year only 27.04% of those claiming a Compostela started from Sarria. I make that fairly close to a quarter and quite a bit short of a vast majorityNonetheless we all know that the vast majority of Pilgrims start from Sarria and walk to Santiago and part of their purpose is to receive a Compostella and so I guess the true answer is more than the Pilgrim Office records and less than some of us think it might be
Ach, I should have stated "retired"; or done some research...I am neither an auditor or a statistician but I am an enthusiastic amateur pedant. According to the pilgrim office statistics for last year only 27.04% of those claiming a Compostela started from Sarria. I make that fairly close to a quarter and quite a bit short of a vast majority
Intriguing query @timr ... Not based on any facts at all, I'll go against the trend & say of those who do actually arrive in Santiago dC, I think more would actually get the Compostela than not. I'm basing this theory on the assumption that most 'arrivees' are first, &/or only timers, most likely on the CF, rather than serial or repeat offenders. 327,378 is such an enormous number of people. To assume the equivalent or more don't collect a Compostela seems a bit excessive?Does anyone know of any estimate (and I don't know how it would be possible to make it) of the number of people who walk each year, (or in 2018), who didn't finish in Santiago or who, if they did, did not collect a compostela or distance certificate?
I know 327,378 collected Compostela last year.
And OK I know the answer to my question does not really exist - I could walk 100km from my home in UK 'towards Santiago' and clearly this could never be counted but I could say I was walking to Santiago.
But what about an estimate at least for people who walk within Spain?
I think by its very nature a forum like this attracts recidivists disproportionately. Like moths around a light bulb. I would be hesitant to extrapolate from the opinions and practice of a group like this to make assumptions about the behaviour of the wider Camino world. I think it just as likely that there are many - and perhaps a majority - for whom walking a Camino is a once-in-a-lifetime experience and who do not haunt the internet Camino world afterwardsMany of the people posting here are camino recidivists, like myself. I have arrived in SdC four times but have only my single initial compostela. This makes me wonder if the assumption that most people arriving in SdC do collect a compostela is actually sustainable.
That's just it though, isn't it? All assumptions/presumptions/suspicions. Actually, I used forum members as an example, an exception to the assertion, and obviously these pilgrims are a subset of the wider camino community. We will never know the actual numbers that never collect one, unless statistics are taken of the total number of persons identifying as pilgrims taking a bed in SdC in a given year, subtracted from the number of compostelas issued. And even that would not be precise, as some may not even stay the night. I'm largely aligned with Timr on this one!I think by its very nature a forum like this attracts recidivists disproportionately. Like moths around a light bulb. I would be hesitant to extrapolate from the opinions and practice of a group like this to make assumptions about the behaviour of the wider Camino world. I think it just as likely that there are many - and perhaps a majority - for whom walking a Camino is a once-in-a-lifetime experience and who do not haunt the internet Camino world afterwardsAnd I suspect that in that case the majority would choose to receive a Compostela.
6 of us started in Pamplona and walked most of the way but did not get a Compostela as we did not walk every centimeter of the last 100 Km - we took a taxi a couple of times thus disqualify us even though we had walked 300 miles.Does anyone know of any estimate (and I don't know how it would be possible to make it) of the number of people who walk each year, (or in 2018), who didn't finish in Santiago or who, if they did, did not collect a compostela or distance certificate?
I know 327,378 collected Compostela last year.
And OK I know the answer to my question does not really exist - I could walk 100km from my home in UK 'towards Santiago' and clearly this could never be counted but I could say I was walking to Santiago.
But what about an estimate at least for people who walk within Spain?
A little fun fact for you Tinca to learn a little bit about the Colonies on the other side of The Atlantic. Isn't the number 42 a reference to Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy? I read it a very long time ago when my brain was fuzzy a lot. Much more importantly the number 42 was worn by the great Jackie Robinson. He was the first Black person to play Major League Baseball. He had an amazing life as should be expected as he was an amazing man. No baseball player is allowed to wear his number. If you don't know about him check him out. I think you will find it worthwhile reading.Its a great question @timr even if the only reasonable answer is "42". There has been discussion previously on the forum and i was struck by how many "serial" pilgrims posting here said that they do not seek to claim another Compostella to add to previous collections. Some, like me, walk straight on through or swing past or just drop in to the Cathedral to give himself a hug: but they don't go and claim that certificate or sign on as an arrival. How many? Lots probably.
There is a previous thread https://www.caminodesantiago.me/community/threads/statistics-what-percent-finish.61570/#post-733423 that rambles around the topic.
As an auditor and statistician its a bit difficult for me to accept @Jean Ti 's assertions but I've no evidence to contradict them. Your double-the-number-you-first-thought-of is a pretty good estimate too. On my last 5 arrivals in Santiago I've registered my arrival twice. So maybe divide-by-two-and multiply-by-five would work?
Nonetheless we all know that the vast majority of Pilgrims start from Sarria and walk to Santiago and part of their purpose is to receive a Compostella and so I guess the true answer is more than the Pilgrim Office records and less than some of us think it might be
.While doing research for my books, I had read that the Official Pilgrim Office estimated (in part from lodging statistics) that at any given time there are 4-5 times as many pilgrims/walkers on the Camino who did not get the Compostela as there are pilgrims who did get one.
Does anyone know of any estimate (and I don't know how it would be possible to make it) of the number of people who walk each year, (or in 2018), who didn't finish in Santiago or who, if they did, did not collect a compostela or distance certificate?
I know 327,378 collected Compostela last year.
And OK I know the answer to my question does not really exist - It would be possible to make an almost reliable measure by compiling the number of credentials issued and where against Compostellas issued. I myself have been on three Caminos 2016, 2018 and am currently on Portuguesa and I have been to Santiago twice but never bothered with the Compostella. I just know in my heart where I have been and don’t need a certificate to qualify it.
Many of the people posting here are camino recidivists, like myself. I have arrived in SdC four times but have only my single initial compostela. This makes me wonder if the assumption that most people arriving in SdC do collect a compostela is actually sustainable.
I actually have asked myself the same question though.
See here for an estimate I made based on the registered departures from SJPP and compostelas issued to pilgrims that started there in 2018.Does anyone know of any estimate (and I don't know how it would be possible to make it) of the number of people who walk each year, (or in 2018), who didn't finish in Santiago or who, if they did, did not collect a compostela or distance certificate?
I know 327,378 collected Compostela last year.
And OK I know the answer to my question does not really exist - I could walk 100km from my home in UK 'towards Santiago' and clearly this could never be counted but I could say I was walking to Santiago.
But what about an estimate at least for people who walk within Spain?
I remember walking with a similar group for a short while; it was after Burgos. I don't know how typical or frequent this is. Out of curiosity, I watched a video of the dinner at Orisson where everyone gets up and says their name, where they are from and where they want to walk to. Some are not easy to understand, but out of around 50 people, at least 26 and possibly a few more were not planning to go all the way to Santiago, with endpoints ranging from Roncesvalles to Burgos.I walked from Pamplona to Leon in March. Of the folks I got to know I would guess half were only walking a segment and not continuing thru to Santiago. These included a number of Spaniards who were taking a week’s vacation to walk, as well as a number of pilgrims hiking the full Frances over a number of years
Another interesting statistic would be the proportion of first (&/or only) timers to repeaters on any given trail. Again with the assumptions (which is really all we have) many of us 'cut our teeth' on the CF & take it from there...from the 'never agains' to 'addicts'.Many of the people posting here are camino recidivists, like myself. I have arrived in SdC four times but have only my single initial compostela. This makes me wonder if the assumption that most people arriving in SdC do collect a compostela is actually sustainable.
I actually have asked myself the same question though.
Excellent points as always @Bradypus ...apt & descriptive!I think by its very nature a forum like this attracts recidivists disproportionately. Like moths around a light bulb. I would be hesitant to extrapolate from the opinions and practice of a group like this to make assumptions about the behaviour of the wider Camino world. I think it just as likely that there are many - and perhaps a majority - for whom walking a Camino is a once-in-a-lifetime experience and who do not haunt the internet Camino world afterwardsAnd I suspect that in that case the majority would choose to receive a Compostela.
Yes, starting from St Jean, there are quite a number who are only planning to get to Logrono, Burgos, etc. that year, and continue on in the future. But I think that once past Burgos or Leon, most are going all the way to Santiago.I remember walking with a similar group for a short while; it was after Burgos. I don't know how typical or frequent this is. Out of curiosity, I watched a video of the dinner at Orisson where everyone gets up and says their name, where they are from and where they want to walk to. Some are not easy to understand, but out of around 50 people, at least 26 and possibly a few more were not planning to go all the way to Santiago, with endpoints ranging from Roncesvalles to Burgos.
Are we twins? I have actually just booked flights for my second Camino this year. Just a short one from Porto, but when a friend said that she'd love it if I could go with her, I couldn't say no! My husband thinks that I'm crazy, because I've just been home for about two months. But it's still good weather for walking!Primarily replying to say: if not for this forum I’d be on psychiatrist’s couch.
Why? You might ask.
Because.
I would swear something must be wrong with me for filling so much of my time either walking and thinking about walking, or viewing and reading about camino.
Not to mention wearing camino shirt to dance class which precipitated yet another convo about “ The Way”.
Thank you for your kind words.Lovely to have your input again...welcome 'home'! Hope your trip to Japan & Australia was all you wished for.
These figures imply that about 50% of the pilgrims who started further out than the mininum distance won't collect a compostela. One in every two people who start not succeeding seems high, even if this includes people who have completed the walk to SDC but don't collect the compostela. Did you have access to data from other start points that would support that rate?I have to guess that the total number that walk in a year is lower than the 4or5 times the count due to a couple reasons.
- Pilgrim that start at the 100km (or 200km for cycles) mark Sarria, Tui and others I would think have a 95% rate of picking up Compostela. This group is about 30-35% of Compostela pick ups. Based on http://oficinadelperegrino.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/peregrinaciones2017.pdf
- Pilgrims that started in SJdP in 2017 was 57295 and 33177 picked up a Compostela so 57.9%. http://www.aucoeurduchemin.org/IMG/pdf/stat_mensuelle_au_31_12_2017-2-2.pdf
- Please note that when a the count number does not reflect that some stop and others restart the camino yearly.
- I would think that people walking at least 250km or cycling 500km have the greatest chance of not getting a Compostela.
I feel that the pilgrims office count of Compostelas is about 35% short of the total number of people that walk or cycle in a year.
The age distribution of pilgrims does seem to have changed very markedly over the years. I have no numerical evidence to support this - just my own perception over the 29 years since my first Camino. When I walked the Camino Frances for the first time in 1990 I met very few pilgrims at all and of those I do not recall many who appeared to be much over 60 years old. That is perhaps not surprising as the comparative shortage of accommodation meant that some stages were inevitably long and it was necessary to carry a larger load including sleeping bag and mat. A much more physically demanding challenge. In 2002 I was aware that amongst the greatly increased numbers there were more older walkers though they were still not particularly prominent. On my most recent Camino Frances in 2016 the much wider age range was striking. I think that the vast growth in infrastructure and support services such as luggage transport has opened the Camino to those who for one reason or another would have been reluctant to take on the physical challenge in the earlier days of the Camino revival. How many would still walk today if 30km stages were obligatory at times and there was no option but to carry their own pack?Perhaps the statistic that most surprised me was that 29% of the pilgrims were over 60 years old. However, reflecting back on my trip, I encountered a steady stream of men and women who were right around my age. (I was 63 in 2016 when I made my pilgrimage.) It seemed there were many pilgrims who had just retired and had the leisure time to travel, and this was at the top of their bucket list. While I did see people in their 70s, I doubt less than one in 20 pilgrims I saw on my Camino were in this older age group.
Thanks for reading and commenting on the data. Please note the only other place than Santiago that I know of for a pilgrim count is SJdP.These figures imply that about 50% of the pilgrims who started further out than the mininum distance won't collect a compostela. One in every two people who start not succeeding seems high, even if this includes people who have completed the walk to SDC but don't collect the compostela. Did you have access to data from other start points that would support that rate?
Year | Santiago | SJdP | percent gained Compostela | Rough % that start at ~100KM |
2017 | 33177 | 57295 | 57.9% | 30-35% |
2016 | 33656 | 58953 | 57.1% | 30-35% |
2015 | 31058 | 54647 | 56.8% | 35-40% |
2014 | 29357 | 54218 | 54.1% | 30-35% |
2013 | 26569 | 50718 | 52.2% | 30-35% |
2012 | 22214 | 45697 | 48.6% | 25-30% |
2011 | 19416 | 39 675 | 48.9% | 25-30% |
2010 | 17819 | 35 698 | 49.9% | 30-35% |
The same number as for less traveled caminos with so.e longer stages, probably.How many would still walk today if 30km stages were obligatory at times and there was no option but to carry their own pack?
These figures imply that about 50% of the pilgrims who started further out than the mininum distance won't collect a compostela. One in every two people who start not succeeding seems high, even if this includes people who have completed the walk to SDC but don't collect the compostela. Did you have access to data from other start points that would support that rate?
My direct experience is with the Camino Frances, where I started in SJPP, and the Camino Ingles, where I started in Covas. Along the CF, the places where I observed well ordered arrangements for recording whether pilgrims had started there or were in transit from an earlier start point were at Roncesvalles and Ponferrada. On the CI, the albergue at Covas kept such a record, but I didn't see what was done if one started at Ferrol. I stayed at a hotel; it would have a record of my stay, but they didn't record the fact of stamping my credencial.Do you know of other pilgrims offices that are on routes that feed in to SJdP that could be asked for data?
My direct experience is with the Camino Frances, where I started in SJPP, and the Camino Ingles, where I started in Covas. Along the CF, the places where I observed well ordered arrangements for recording whether pilgrims had started there or were in transit from an earlier start point were at Roncesvalles and Ponferrada. On the CI, the albergue at Covas kept such a record, but I didn't see what was done if one started at Ferrol. I stayed at a hotel; it would have a record of my stay, but they didn't record the fact of stamping my credencial.
At other places the albergues maintain a record, but I have no idea to what extent information is collected from these for statistical reporting purposes on behalf of the broader pilgrim movement. And clearly, it is not just the albergues that provide pilgrim accommodation.completing or getting a Compostela
I had expected, given the apparent certainty with which you were prepared to suggest certain percentages, that you had other sources. I was interested to understand what they were given, as I said before, that the percentages you used in one of your posts implies that only 50% of pilgrims who start from further out than the ~100 km start points finish.
Thanks. I was inclined to think there must probably be at least as many again as those who DO collect a compostela.Jean Ti said:
Dont quote me here to get a loan but I think that at least one million people per year are walking on the various Spain Caminos
I agree, but when I conducted my analysis, I felt that this and other factors meant that the completion figure for SJPP would be the lower limit. Using the 2018 figures suggests that about 57% of people who start would get their compostela. The figures you used in your first post indicate that you think it is only 50%, and I still don't think I understand how you have reached that conclusion.My thoughts on 40-50% not completing or getting a Compostela is that people that start 300+KM out are of the mindset that the journey not destination is the goal and therefore SJPP was a good stand-in for all of those people.
I agree, but when I conducted my analysis, I felt that this and other factors meant that the completion figure for SJPP would be the lower limit. Using the 2018 figures suggests that about 57% of people who start would get their compostela. The figures you used in your first post indicate that you think it is only 50%, and I still don't think I understand how you have reached that conclusion.
The real answer is most likely know by the government in Spain but with only two data point it is mostly guessing. I would never try to sell my guess. Do you have links to any other published data points?Well, really you are all just guessing, aren't you? You can't produce statistics without data and you don't have the data.
So, have fun but don't expect to sell your results!
Well, the data is available for SJPP and SDC, and my analysis earlier in the year was based on the 2018 data from both sources. @debra seems to have used the same data but has taken some different approaches. I described the limitations of that in an earlier post in this thread if you care to read it. So no, we are not 'all just guessing', but we are acknowledging the limitations that arise from trying too hard to make the limited available data do 'too much'.Well, really you are all just guessing, aren't you? You can't produce statistics without data and you don't have the data.
So, have fun but don't expect to sell your results!
Putting the cart before the horse I think. First you are a pilgrim. Then perhaps you get a Compostela. Or not! And choosing the latter does not alter that in the slightest.Someone once commented that as we didn't get Compostela we didn't count as pilgrims.
Send them off for a stint on the French section of the Via Francigena...that'll sort 'em out!How many would still walk today if 30km stages were obligatory at times and there was no option but to carry their own pack?
How many would still walk today if 30km stages were obligatory at times and there was no option but to carry their own pack?
But that doesn't answer the OP question so it's still just a guessingWell, the data is available for SJPP and SDC, and my analysis earlier in the year was based on the 2018 data from both sources. @debra seems to have used the same data but has taken some different approaches. I described the limitations of that in an earlier post in this thread if you care to read it. So no, we are not 'all just guessing', but we are acknowledging the limitations that arise from trying too hard to make the limited available data do 'too much'.
You are wrong on both counts. Let me explain why I think that.But that doesn't answer the OP question so it's still just a guessing
Forum Member and post # | Estimate | Number who don't complete or receive a compostela (based on 328000 compostelas issued pa) |
@Jean Ti, #2 | > 1 million walk | > 672,000 |
@timr, #3 | at least as many again | > 328,000 |
@Terry Callery , #14 | 4-5 times as many who did | 1,312,000 to 1,649,000 |
@dougfitz , #21 | about 43% don't finish | ~247,000 |
@debra , #25 | about 35% short | ~184,500 |
@SYates , #42 quoting a conversation with George Greenia | undercount of 30% | ~141,000 |
I tend to think that this is correct. I was surprised to see that so many of those who stayed at Orisson did not plan to go all the way. I used to think people who stay at Orisson are the hard core "all the way walkers". Of course, that was just one evening, I don't know how representative it is.Yes, starting from St Jean, there are quite a number who are only planning to get to Logrono, Burgos, etc. that year, and continue on in the future. But I think that once past Burgos or Leon, most are going all the way to Santiago.
Roncesvalles doesn't have a pilgrim's office per se. As there is only one albergue, almost everyone who starts there gets their first stamp at that albergue. There are other accommodations, however, for those with a little more money to spend, so we can't guarantee that everyone starting there checks in at the albergue. As well, I don't know if the albergue tracks numbers and distinguishes in those numbers between those who start at Roncesvalles or those who start earlier.Thank you.
My direct experience is with the Camino Frances starting in Leon in which I never ran across any pilgrims offices until Santiago. My direct experience is with the VdlP was no pilgrims offices until Santiago. I will try to find the information on Roncesvalles and Ponferrada.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?