- Time of past OR future Camino
- Camino Frances 2007,
Via Francigena Italy, 2008,
Jakobsweg Austria 2010,
Camino Frances 2011,
Le Puy to Lourdes 2012,
Via de la Plata 2013,
Future:
Ökumenischer (Via Regia), Germany,
Lycian Way, Turkey
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2021, I think.Is 2015 a Holy Year? I've lost track.
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!
Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela. During the peak season from mid April through to mid October, more than 1,000 pilgrims daily (200,000 in total) will arrive in Santiago and stories of hours long line ups, pilgrims sleeping on the floor, bed bugs, will become common place, especially in the months of August, September and October.
While the Camino Frances will remain the most popular trail, other trails like the Norte, Portuguese and Via de la Plata will continue to grow in popularity.
There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain. It is very possible that the euro could reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year, if not sooner, motivating more Americans to come to the Spain to walk the camino.
Finally in 2015, there will be some international news event whereby a famous celebrity, politician, etc walks the camino. It is very possible that a film crew from China or South Korea, will come to Spain, to produce a Hollywood style movie on the camino.
However all this said, 2015 will be a watershed year, whereby from 2016 and for the rest of this decade, the annual numbers will never exceed those of 2015. From 2016 and beyond, the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago will fall, and never exceed those of 2015. It won't be until the next holy year in 2021 that the numbers will rise again, but these too won't exceed those of 2015.
La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2014By the way what was the total number of walkers in 2014?
I agree. I suspect that books and movies will be the driving force. There is a German film about Kerkeling soon, and one from Korea is rumored. Koreans took the #2 spot in December!!!I believe that the pilgrim numbers will increase, not decrease, after 2015.
Jerit, I would like to propose a bet. I believe that the pilgrim numbers will increase, not decrease, after 2015. I believe in the goodness of human nature and the need to find a spiritual path. I believe increasing numbers of people all around the world will be called to the Camino.
So here's the bet. If the numbers increase after 2015 you finally have to change your profile picture on this Forum to something more recent (preferably the one of you standing on the rocks at Finesterre watching the sun set). If the numbers decrease, dinner, with a very good bottle of wine, is on me the next time we walk the Camino.
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!
Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela. During the peak season from mid April through to mid October, more than 1,000 pilgrims daily (200,000 in total) will arrive in Santiago and stories of hours long line ups, pilgrims sleeping on the floor, bed bugs, will become common place, especially in the months of August, September and October.
While the Camino Frances will remain the most popular trail, other trails like the Norte, Portuguese and Via de la Plata will continue to grow in popularity.
There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain. It is very possible that the euro could reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year, if not sooner, motivating more Americans to come to the Spain to walk the camino.
Finally in 2015, there will be some international news event whereby a famous celebrity, politician, etc walks the camino. It is very possible that a film crew from China or South Korea, will come to Spain, to produce a Hollywood style movie on the camino.
However all this said, 2015 will be a watershed year, whereby from 2016 and for the rest of this decade, the annual numbers will never exceed those of 2015. From 2016 and beyond, the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago will fall, and never exceed those of 2015. It won't be until the next holy year in 2021 that the numbers will rise again, but these too won't exceed those of 2015.
Good idea but this does not mean you won the bet.And btw I thinking of what I would like for dinner and wine
Check out Outlook: you need the 25th of July to be a Sunday.Is 2015 a Holy Year? I've lost track.
Let's promote the movie "Wild" to Americans and Western Canadians and watch the numbers drop.I agree. I suspect that books and movies will be the driving force. There is a German film about Kerkeling soon, and one from Korea is rumored. Koreans took the #2 spot in December!!!
Time for some wild ass guess (wag) predictions for the new year!
Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela.
The PCT (Pacific coast trail) elite are already digging in on that one. What are you gunna do? They will come if they know about it.Let's promote the movie "Wild" to Americans and Western Canadians and watch the numbers drop.
Clearly, what it ever it takes to redirect trafic there. What do you need me to do to get "walkers" there. Clearly not as effective as those who used to "promote" the Camimo as a tourist destination. I frankly don't ever want to walk there, but if it will move traffic there, I'm all for it.The PCT (Pacific coast trail) elite are already digging in on that one. What are you gunna do? They will come if they know about it.
I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. I think the wilderness walkers of the U.S. and the pilgrims of Santiago are very different groups. My outdoorsman brother was driven from the PCT by mosquitoes after two days. It has conditions quite different from the Camino. He was wearing a full insect net outfit, and was reduced to cooking inside his tent. I personally favor the menu del dia...The PCT (Pacific coast trail) elite are already digging in on that one.
La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2014
Durante el año 2014 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 237.886 peregrinos; el anterior Año Santo en 2010 fueron 272.412. De estos peregrinos, 109.386 (45,98%) son mujeres y 128.500 (54,02%) hombres. A pie han llegado 210.943 (88,67%), en bicicleta 25.325 (10,65%), a caballo 1.520 (0,64%) y 98 (0,04%) en silla de ruedas.
The last Holy Year topped 250,000 already:
La Peregrinación a Santiago en 2010
Durante el año 2010 en la Oficina de Peregrinaciones se recibieron 272.412 peregrinos
The past is no guarantee of the future, but there has always been growth from one Holy Year to the next in the last twenty years.
However, it does look like next year will be the first non-Jubilee year to exceed a quarter of a million. Tent anyone?
My crystal ball says that 2015 will see between 259'000 and 261'000 pilgrims arriving in SdC. In the past I have had to dump quite a few crystal balls which turned out to be pretty useless....Due to demographic, social and economics reasons, 2015 will be the year that over 250,000 pilgrims (and as many as 275,000) will arrive into Santiago and receive their Compostela....There will be a surge in non-Europeans doing the camino as both a falling euro and lower energy costs make it more affordable for people to travel to and through Spain....
Hope you are rightMy crystal ball says that 2015 will see between 259'000 and 261'000 pilgrims arriving in SdC. In the past I have had to dump quite a few crystal balls which turned out to be pretty useless.
Did not we say that walking the camino and obtaining the Compostela is good for your CV on this forum in a thread ?The number of Spanish pilgrims was up 7% in 2014, so they keep on coming!!
Time will tell. After Easter this year, by mid April, we'll look into our new Crystal ball and figure out the trend for this year.Hope you are right
Groeten uit het koude kikkerland
Wild isn't a camino..it's (??). I love Spain, France,Switzerland, Italy...It's about pilgrims with a common goal (SDC!).Let's promote the movie "Wild" to Americans and Western Canadians and watch the numbers drop.
There are thru-hikers (not through-hikers) and then there are thru-hikers. I've done the AT and last May walked the Camino's French route from Leon to Santiago, with a side jaunt to Samos. Both are equally great treks. Not all of us are "very different." Have you done any hikes in the U.S.?I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. I think the wilderness walkers of the U.S. and the pilgrims of Santiago are very different groups. My outdoorsman brother was driven from the PCT by mosquitoes after two days. It has conditions quite different from the Camino. He was wearing a full insect net outfit, and was reduced to cooking inside his tent. I personally favor the menu del dia...
Maybe.(not through-hikers)
As much as "nite", "lite" and the likes give me hives (don't get me started about y'alls) and to a lesser extent 'Z' being used instead of "S" and the U being chopped out when it shoud be "OU", and the RE being replaced by ER, in this case, considering who the ones traversing the Adirondacks and other US mountain chains, Thru may well be what it is. It fits them, if not proper spelling.Maybe.
"Through and thru"
I was not implying that thru is grammatically correct, merely that thru-hiker is the way that veteran Appalachian Trail hikers almost always refer to those who thru-hike (doing all 2175 miles in one continuous jaunt).Maybe.
"Through and thru are different spellings of the same word. Thru is the less preferred form, however, and it might be considered out of place outside the most informal contexts. If you’re writing for school or for a job application, for instance, through is definitely the safer choice.
"One exception: The shorter spelling is often used in drive-thru, where the term relates to getting fast food or banking without exiting one’s car. But though the shorter spelling has gained ground in this use, drive-through still prevails by a significant margin.
"In current news publications that make content available online, thru only appears a tiny fraction of the time. We find only a few scattered instances of its use, against tens of thousands of instances of through. Thru is certainly gaining ground in text-speak and social networking, and it may someday become the preferred spelling, but we’re not betting on it just yet."
Too early yet for this prediction. April's figures, which include the Easter holiday pilgrims, might enlighten us on what we could expect for the rest of the year.295,000 arriving into Santiago for all the routes of which this includes nearly 200,000 for the Camino Frances route.
The first 4 months show a 14% increase compared to the same period last year. What shocks most at this early stage, is that the trails of the last 100 kms to Santiago are getting ever more pilgrims load.But I have deep sixth sense that the numbers for 2015 will be shocking!
What shocks most at this early stage, is that the trails of the last 100 kms to Santiago are getting ever more pilgrims load.
First experience last year was Sarria-Santiago and did not know what to expect. Only had one week to spare.True, but we can't begrudge others wanting to find the same joy and satisfaction we received from the Camino. It is always 'sad' in a way when we see something so nice become congested. Great things become popular and popularity definitely comes with a price! Personally, I will suffer through the congestion (with the occasional grumble beneath my breath...) if it means more people get to experience the Camino.
Might be so but at least one less because I won't go to the office to collect the CompostelaMy wild guess is that in 2015 the 300,000 mark will be surpassed. SY
Oh myMy wild guess is that in 2015 the 300,000 mark will be surpassed.
Oh myyou've really gone wild in guessing
I fear another crystal ball being broken before long....Not really too wild, from last years 230,000+ to 300,000 isn't too high a jump[...]
I fear another crystal ball being broken before long....
I was unfortunate enough to walk in parallel with a small group of Appalachian Trail through-hikers. Their constant belittling of the Camino became quite tedious. .
Ooooh! Sounds to me like we have a betting pool going on... On the incredibly unlikely event that everyone is breathlessly waiting for me to weigh in on this important topic with my own wear-a-blindfold-and-throw-a-dart prediction, I'm going with 267,319. I stake a claim to that prediction. Hands-off. You can't have it. No arguing. Pick your own number!Let's check again said crystal ball in the night of 31.12.15 to 01.01.2016 ;-) Cava is on me ;-) SY
There are definitely a certain sub-set of people who always have to denigrate whatever thing they are doing (especially when others are particularly praising it). I suppose it makes them feel they are above it somehow. The Camino is its own trail with its own charms, its own community of walkers, and so on. What people want out of a trail depends on their personal preferences and interests.I can't imagine why anyone would make such a comparison.
Wow! Good thing the next Holy year is still a while away - if we're breaking the 2010 numbers already, a Holy year now would probably crush the infrastructure...At the halfway mark May 2015 is on track to have more Compostelas than in May 2010, a Holy year. The daily average has been 922, and it was 931 in 2010!
Compared to last year's average of 882/day, this represents a 4.5% increase. Less than what I guessed so far!At the halfway mark May 2015 is on track to have more Compostelas than in May 2010, a Holy year. The daily average has been 922, and it was 931 in 2010!
Yes, but we're comparing the current YTD daily average against last year's whole-year daily average. We aren't in peak season yet. If we extend the current trend but adjust for seasonality over the rest of the year it would appear last year's average will be significantly exceeded. [Edit: Ooops! Or have I mis-read the post about the May numbers... sorry!]Compared to last year's average of 882/day, this represents a 4.5% increase. Less than what I guessed so far!
There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.Is there a way to find out how many pilgrims have reached Santiago this year so far?
There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.
Start a thread with poll and at least we would know the percentage among us.There isn't any way to 'officially' determine how many pilgrims reached Santiago, only how many applied for their compostela (which gets posted on the pilgrim office website and is updated regularly). I'd love to know what proportion of people who walk the Camino actually get their composelta, but I don't think there is any way to determine that other than estimates.
I will stick to my prediction that the total number for 2015 will come in somewhere between 250,000 and 295,000 - probably closer to 275,000
You are making a January & February Camino look really good. That or run for the Invierno! ... But please let u not mention it to anyone elseWe're likely to end the year 2015 by seeing between 262'000 and 263'000 Compostelas issued in Santiago. The upcoming Extraordinary Roman Holy Year of Mercy (starting next week) will invite increased numbers to walk to Santiago. Most of them will be Spanish and overpower the various Caminos' last 100 kms during the months of April to October, with inevitable (holidays) peaks in July and August.At this time it's too early to make guesses for 2016, considering security threats in transit (feeder) cities with massive people movements. The various Caminos are probably safer to be enjoyed once one gets to the start.
Since the Camino de Invierno has now become "official" it will gain in popularity.[...] That or run for the Invierno! ... But please let u not mention it to anyone else
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