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200,000+ pilgrims so far this year

Bradypus

Migratory hermit
Time of past OR future Camino
Too many and too often!
The focus is on reducing the risk of failure through being well prepared. 2nd ed.
Not good news...
I hope that other ways ("Chemin d'Assise", "Via Francigena"...) will see their popularity increasing in order to avoir Galician people anger...
In my opinion, it should be better if the Camino was not used for non-individual reasons (job, social status...).
 
Not good news...
I hope that other ways ("Chemin d'Assise", "Via Francigena"...) will see their popularity increasing in order to avoir Galician people anger...
Many other routes have been created or "rediscovered" in recent years and are gaining in popularity. I don't think they are drawing numbers away from the Caminos though. The total numbers walking everywhere seem to be rising.
 
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I would like the section of the Frances from Sarria renamed to something else.

When I was figuring out when to walk my first Frances I looked at the high numbers in July and August and decided to do either a Spring or Autumn Camino.

What I found and everyone on here should now know is that pretty much everyone else goes through the same process and as a result May and September are super busy from the St. Jean end and the rest of the year albergue owners complain about the lack of customers (except from Sarria onwards).

I am walking at the moment (in Astorga) and it is DEFINITELY NOT BUSY.

Almost all albergue owners who I have talked to are worried about a lack of pilgrims.
 
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I would like the section of the Frances from Sarria renamed to something else.
Why? Would changing the name make any real difference to the number of people walking? I think most people are aware of the marked change in the character of the Camino often found after Sarria. Would calling it something else alter that experience?
 
Why? Would changing the name make any real difference to the number of people walking? I think most people are aware of the marked change in the character of the Camino often found after Sarria. Would calling it something else alter that experience?
I suspect that you didn't actually read my post. Almost no new pilgrims who contemplate walking the Frances have any idea that the statistics published in Santiago de Compostela give a totally untrue picture about the number of pilgrims walking from St. Jean.

Even the pilgrims walking for the first time struggled to differentiate between the busyness around them and how busy it is 200klms before or after that point.

I would agree that experienced pilgrims on this forum now have some idea about how to differentiate busyness in one place from not busy in another place.
 
Thank you for taking the time to publicise the statistics from Santiago de Compostela but in the long term, your failure to also tell people that the numbers finishing is not reflected anywhere beyond Sarria is a disservice to new pilgrims.
 
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Thank you for taking the time to publicise the statistics from Santiago de Compostela but in the long term, your failure to also tell people that the numbers finishing is not reflected anywhere beyond Sarria is a disservice to new pilgrims.
The article is about total arrival figures from all caminos. Last year those who walked the Camino Frances from points further east than Sarria were only about 15% of the overall total. The Caminos in 2023 are a much larger phenomenon than the long-distance Camino Frances from SJPDP/Roncesvalles/Pamplona which was walked by fewer than 1 in 5 of those who received a Compostela. The Camino Frances is not even named in the article which I posted. I think we should recognise that a long-distance walk along the Camino Frances is now very much a minority choice - not the default - and we do not need to compare everything Camino-related to that one particular route.
 
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I would like the section of the Frances from Sarria renamed to something else.

When I was figuring out when to walk my first Frances I looked at the high numbers in July and August and decided to do either a Spring or Autumn Camino.

What I found and everyone on here should now know is that pretty much everyone else goes through the same process and as a result May and September are super busy from the St. Jean end and the rest of the year albergue owners complain about the lack of customers (except from Sarria onwards).

I am walking at the moment (in Astorga) and it is DEFINITELY NOT BUSY.

Almost all albergue owners who I have talked to are worried about a lack of pilgrims.
The Caminito Frances
 
I would like the section of the Frances from Sarria renamed to something else.

When I was figuring out when to walk my first Frances I looked at the high numbers in July and August and decided to do either a Spring or Autumn Camino.

What I found and everyone on here should now know is that pretty much everyone else goes through the same process and as a result May and September are super busy from the St. Jean end and the rest of the year albergue owners complain about the lack of customers (except from Sarria onwards).

I am walking at the moment (in Astorga) and it is DEFINITELY NOT BUSY.

Almost all albergue owners who I have talked to are worried about a lack of
I suspect that you didn't actually read my post. Almost no new pilgrims who contemplate walking the Frances have any idea that the statistics published in Santiago de Compostela give a totally untrue picture about the number of pilgrims walking from St. Jean.

Even the pilgrims walking for the first time struggled to differentiate between the busyness around them and how busy it is 200klms before or after that point.

I would agree that experienced pilgrims on this forum now have some idea about how to differentiate busyness in one place from not busy in another place.

I read both of your responses @DoughnutANZ Like @ Bradypus I don’t believe there Is a need to rename the last section of the CF

Yes, I would agree that the stats are not accurate.
Do we know how many folks walk caminos and never get to SdC. They stop earlier. Get injured. Or they walk but don’t get a certificate! Or they start in Pamplona and walk to Leon or Sarria. No the numbers can’t be accurate.

However, the stats likely have little influence, I suspect, upon when most people who do their first camino actually do walk. There decision regarding when to walk is based not upon some office statistic, but on other practical factors such as the time they have available to walk, time constraints in terms of length of time and personal commitments. Funding, do they have enough money to walk the whole route? Many don’t. . When is it more economical (more albergues open In high season). If one wants fixed reservations are the rooms available? Are they walking/riding when they might have other committments abroad and can squeeze in 10 days on the CF.
Then I call them the qualitative factors…Does one desire to be with lots of people, or do they desire the solitude of off season. Some want to walk in the Spring Flora or enjoy Semana Santa in SdC. Some love the color changes in Autumn. Do they prefer cool weather verses warm weather/climate to walk in.
Then there are those who just pick up spontaneous because they are suddenly searching…or are in crisis. And what about the pilgrims who were in Spain visiting friends from abroad and who extended their stay to walk a pilgrimage they had never heard of till a week or two before they did it?

So no I really am not concerned about the stats being misleading in-terms of when to make a camino or where to start.
 
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I suspect, most people who do their first camino actually do not base their decision on some office statistic, but on other factors such
That is probably true. But it also seems that a lot of people "hear" a very misleading statement - i.e. that the Camino is most crowded in July and August. They don't understand that a number of factors result in distinct and fairly predictable waves that are very different from the simplistic summary.
 
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That is probably true. But it also seems that a lot of people "hear" a very misleading statement - i.e. that the Camino is most crowded in July and August. They don't understand that a number of factors result in distinct and fairly predictable waves that are very different from the simplistic summary.
Let us say that the statement that the Camino in July and August is very crowded is misleading? So, if you can prove this, than publicize that. I would agree that there may likely be lots of availability to stay in an albergue dorm with limited airflow and likely no aircon.
And yes there are waves of pilgrims. But there are also waves in May,June, and September, and Semana Santa, which cause bottlenecks. But pilgrims come anyway! Walking long distances in sweltering conditions with little relief and ever increasing temperatures deters folks from walking in the summer. That is why I suggest, for the most part, they are staying away in summer not mainly because of a misleading statement or stats.
 
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Ok, like I can only tell you what I know from experience. There are many more Spaniards on any route in the last 100k. Like the experience for the rest of us non nationals changes. Sometimes they are friendly, sometimes they are loud. I wish my Spanish was better so I could talk to them more.
 
Let us say that the statement that the Camino in July and August is very crowded is misleading? So, if you can prove this, than publicize that.
I don't mean that anyone is deliberately misleading. The Pilgrim Office statistics indicate that August is the busiest month, but that the most popular starting point is Sarria. That is true, but it doesn't give the information that would be more helpful to people who are planning to start in SJPP or Pamplona.

for the most part, they are staying away in summer not mainly because of a misleading statement or stats.
I agree there are other reasons that people would choose not to walk in summer. I'm just saying that the supposed crowds of August are not a valid reason if you are starting in SJPP or thereabouts. Too many people innocently plan for the beginning of September in SJPP, and they are shocked to find the difficulties.
 
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Last year those who walked the Camino Frances from points further east than Sarria were only about 15% of the overall total.
In 2022, pilgrims from 100kms out or less (from all routes) were about 44% of the total.
So about 56% were distance walkers, including some impressive starting points like Jerusalem and Russia.

So far this year that balance is roughly 42% short distance, 58% long distance.

Compared to the percentage on the Francés alone, what that says to me is that, yes, lots of people are starting in Sarria. But overall, what's interesting is when you have a deeper look, those who choose Sarria over other shorter routes, the percentages are (for this year) 58% Sarria versus 42% other 100km or less starting points. Lots of people start other places. But it's no real surprise that we notice the Sarria effect because the majority of short pilgrimages (a bit less than ⅗) start there. The other ⅖ are spread out all around Galicia.

Not that individual people are using these numbers when deciding where to start walking. But word of mouth might be affecting where groups start. @LTfit just came into Santiago off the Invierno and encountered a huge group of students (80? something like that). A trend may be slowly starting of groups finding other routes besides Sarria, to avoid the crush.

Caminito Frances
🤣
You have to admit it has a ring to it.

Too many people innocently plan for the beginning of September in SJPP, and they are shocked to find the difficulties
This is something that needs to be repeatedly hammered home. May and September are peak months for those who start from SJPP.
 
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I extracted some of the pilgrim arrival numbers for 2022 from the Pilgrim Office website and did some simple manipulations to determine when these pilgrims would have departed from either SJPP or Sarria based on a 35 day journey from SJPP, and a seven day journey from Sarria. I have done no sensitivity analysis to see the effect of different assumptions about journey time.

Does this show anything that hasn't been discussed so far? It clearly illustrates that there was a peak of departures from SJPP in May, with a peak of from both sources departing from Sarria in August. The earlier peak from SJPP does not appear to have a significant effect on the rise in total demand after Sarria - it rises pretty steadily up to August, and then drops away over the next two months. There is a clear second peak of departures from SJPP in September, but that also drops pretty quickly the following month. So there isn't anything in this simple analysis that would surprize anyone.

More importantly, this is based on the Pilgrim Office statistics and some simple assumptions about how long it might have taken people starting in SJPP and Sarria to reach Santiago. I wouldn't expect someone setting out on their first camino to do this level of research and analysis, but suggesting that it isn't possible clearly isn't true.

What is missing here? I haven't taken into account the build up of pilgrims along the CF from the intermediate places between SJPP and Sarria. That would clearly be possible. It would change the totals here, but whether it would reveal some surprize is not possible to know. Someone might want to do that if they are more motivated than I am on this matter. This also doesn't include data from other years to see if any of the same patterns emerge in a consistent manner, or there are changes happening that we might be interested in when we give advice about when might be a good time to start.

I don't feel tempted to read too much into this, but one thing seems pretty clear, even if one would want to do more work to confirm that. Assuming for a moment that the CF can sustain the peak demand, albeit that there might be difficulties finding places at those times, it seems from this that outside these periods there are going to be reasonable vacancy rates leading up to and beyond Sarria. The difficulty might be more in finding where there are places to stay, than one of there being no places at all.

Pilgrim Arrivals 2022Estimated Departures
%of Peak Demand
From SJPPFrom SarriaFrom SJPPFrom SarriaTotal ex SarriaFrom SJPPFrom SarriaTotal ex Sarria
April109412278430492091002980%36%35%
May43041298253991396818673100%55%66%
June5908169243245177972306860%70%81%
July3361204152889220872530354%87%89%
August2780271033798254662838370%100%100%
September3327205554867190412295690%75%81%
October5682144971285114561611924%45%57%
My apologies, but I cannot improve the alignment. The arrivals are in the first two columns. The remainder of the columns relate to the estimated departures.
 
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Another article, and it's actually a great little recap article about the current Camino in general, including suitcases stuff and so on (some albergues that do not allow pack transport allow suitcases if you carry them in and out yourself) ; there's some rule 14 stuff :

https://www.elconfidencialdigital.c...convirtiendo-en-algo-turistico-pero-strong-em

50% Francès, just under 24% Português Central, but total Português Coastal + Central is about 33%.
 
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This is something that needs to be repeatedly hammered home. May and September are peak months for those who start from SJPP.
Strange that most guide books seem to say exactly this too. Those of us who have walked a few times have noticed the increase, especially before and after Covid but I firmly believe that is due to pent up demand.

An albergue owner in Trabadelo made mention of an increase of about 18% this year ( cannot find the instagram link right now ) and after May being full I would put my money on September going to be the same. Heat often puts people off the middle months too.
 
In 2022, pilgrims from 100kms out or less (from all routes) were about 44% of the total.
So about 56% were distance walkers, including some impressive starting points like Jerusalem and Russia.

So far this year that balance is roughly 42% short distance, 58% long distance.

Compared to the percentage on the Francés alone, what that says to me is that, yes, lots of people are starting in Sarria. But overall, what's interesting is when you have a deeper look, those who choose Sarria over other shorter routes, the percentages are (for this year) 58% Sarria versus 42% other 100km or less starting points. Lots of people start other places. But it's no real surprise that we notice the Sarria effect because the majority of short pilgrimages (a bit less than ⅗) start there. The other ⅖ are spread out all around Galicia.

Not that individual people are using these numbers when deciding where to start walking. But word of mouth might be affecting where groups start. @LTfit just came into Santiago off the Invierno and encountered a huge group of students (80? something like that). A trend may be slowly starting of groups finding other routes besides Sarria, to avoid the crush.


🤣
You have to admit it has a ring to it.


This is something that needs to be repeatedly hammered home. May and September are peak months for those who start from SJPP.


If you mean-warning pilgrims (hammering home) to make reservations if starting in SJPdP in late April May or September, many of us have repeatedly stressed that September is peak time on the CF and consistently cautioned others online to secure reservations in advance up to Pamplona if walking then. BTW In 2015 when we left early September, there was no availability in Roncevalles or Zubiri when we arrived (luckily I made reservations then) so this phenomenon predates covid.

Sure, Lots of us would like to walk without securing a reservation weeks or months before, but if one does not do so in September from SJPdP, one must be prepared to walk much further, sleep under a church porch or take a taxi!
Many folks who start in SJPdP want to walk the Napolean route. The Napoleon route is only open from April to the end of October and can close at any time due to bad weather. However, when I I last walked from SJPdPI in 2018 Orisson closed at the end of-the first Week of October. And sometimes the route itself closes for a couple of days in Oct due to snow. So for folks wanting to walk the Napolean route, the mentioned factors put more pressure on favoring a September start date verses October.
 
There are also bottleneck/wave areas coming out of Leon on The May 1st weekend or holiday. I have experienced this several years. From Rabanal del Camino to Ponferrada and then from Villafranca del Bierzo to OCebreiro accommodations sell out. Ponferrada prices in many hotels double or triple at that time. One hotel was asking for 8 times what I normally pay. I suspect also that many Spaniards (not walking) who plan ahead, use cheaper accommodations along the camino that weekend, to avoidthe higher costs in Ponferrada.

Going into Logrono on the feast of San Matteo which is when The wine Festival Occurs in September creates another bottleneck and pilgrims should be alerted to this.

Semana Santa from Sarria leaves many a pilgrim without accommodations so reserve in advance.

On Hispanic Day, October 12 in SdC not only would a pilgrim be wise to have reservations, but finding a place to sit and eat in the old City was very very difficult.

Perhaps the Forum could put up a suggestion to make reservations ahead during these times?
 
The focus is on reducing the risk of failure through being well prepared. 2nd ed.
Perhaps the Forum could put up a suggestion to make reservations ahead during these times?
It's not the Forum's job to spoon-feed people, but to give them a means to answer their own questions. We pilgrims are responsible for gathering their own information.

And let's not institutionalize the anxiety-based post-covid idea that bookings are essential. Because that's not the case. I have walked in May twice (and twice in Semana Santa), without making bookings. It's not that hard.

The problem disappears when people realize that even at the most crowded times there are options - it just requires flexibility, a willingness to deal with a little insecurity, and thinking outside the box. Sleeping under a church porch never killed anyone, and there are always taxis for those willing to use them.
 
It's not the Forum's job to spoon-feed people, but to give them a means to answer their own questions. We pilgrims are responsible for gathering their own information.

And let's not institutionalize the anxiety-based post-covid idea that bookings are essential. Because that's not the case. I have walked in May twice (and twice in Semana Santa), without making bookings. It's not that hard.

The problem disappears when people realize that even at the most crowded times there are options - it just requires flexibility, a willingness to deal with a little insecurity, and thinking outside the box. Sleeping under a church porch never killed anyone, and there are always taxis for those willing to use them.
No-one is looking to create institutional anxiety based upon post covid experiences.😁In fact, I indicated that some of the waves were occurring in 2015. However, if I were walking for the first time, having knowledge about areas that consistently bottle up during festivals and holidays and that the lack of accommodations between SJPdP and Pamplona can be problematic in September would be appreciated.
Not everone may have your flexibility or even health to sleep under a church porch or walk 5 extra kms or even the budgets for taxi fares. Obviously this is not an issue for you but giving a heads to newbies and being proactive can help first timers consider their options…including whether starting in September, given their circumstances, is wise!
 
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I am not sure what we are arguing about, or if we are even disagreeing! We started out saying that some simplistic statements about the the busiest times for the Camino were not very helpful for individuals planning their trips from different starting points. I don't think there can be much disagreement about that.

Then we have gone into further detail about bottlenecks and waves at different times and places. Again the data seems fairly clear and @Marbe2 has described a number of known situations.

The question of what an individual decides to do with that information is very much a personal decision that is made by the person, based on their situation. That interesting discussion takes place on many of our threads.

Perhaps the Forum could put up a suggestion to make reservations ahead during these times?
The Forum is a place where individuals offer their advice, experiences and opinions about the Camino. There are very few situations where "the Forum" issues a position statement, except about allowable posts.
 
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So about 56% were distance walkers, including some impressive starting points like Jerusalem and Russia.

So far this year that balance is roughly 42% short distance, 58% long distance.
Included in that 58% would be pilgrims that may have started from SJPdP or farther back on any route, but walked in sections over a number of years. So I guess that they would be short distance long distance walkers.
 
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Good point, @trecile :
Included in that 58% would be pilgrims that may have started from SJPdP or farther back on any route, but walked in sections over a number of years. So I guess that they would be short distance long distance walkers.
Yes, but invisible in the data since they are given a Compostella or DC as starting wherever they first began. 'False positives,' if you like.
 
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July pilgrim numbers for the Francès in particular seem to be down --
There was a marked increase in numbers in the first few months of the year - including from SJPDP. But that initial rush seems to have tailed off. I just looked at the pilgrim office running total and they are now about 11% up on last year. Well down from the 30% increase seen earlier in the year. Still on track to be another record year but perhaps not the astonishing numbers that seemed likely a couple of months ago.
 
There was a marked increase in numbers in the first few months of the year - including from SJPDP. But that initial rush seems to have tailed off. I just looked at the pilgrim office running total and they are now about 11% up on last year. Well down from the 30% increase seen earlier in the year. Still on track to be another record year but perhaps not the astonishing numbers that seemed likely a couple of months ago.
I'm sure numbers will blast right up again in September and October, though it's possible that a temporary post-lockdown boom might be ending.

We'll see ...
 

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