Geeks Only

[DowtyCamino]

Geeks Only #2

• DowtyCamino
• Nov 2, 2016
• 2

Pilgrims Entering Santiago each Year

I found this interesting. You can see the impact of the 2010 Holy Year as well as the growth (and potentially leveling off) of Camino traffic. March and April are interesting and trend bucking because of when Easter falls.

Geeks Only #1

• DowtyCamino
• Nov 2, 2016
• 6

Pilgrims entering each month.

The same data transposed.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

Thanks. This is interesting. It appears that the increase seen this year, despite all the heated debate on several threads, is in line with the increase that has been happening gradually over the years, and not like a Santiago Holy year. It appears the numbers, no matter the year, hold pretty steady in the winter (no huge surprise) and the increase is felt in the summer (most) spring(next) and fall, with some variation in Apr/Mar possibly reflecting Easter.
where did you get the raw data?

 

[SYates]

Very interesting indeed, do you have a similar one for the different Caminos? Buen Camino, SY

 

[MTtoCamino]

Thanks for sharing this, living in a colder climate makes March/April time line very appealing. You can see the years such as 2013 the weather was continually cold wet during those months drove folks off the Camino. When I trained for April I expected those same conditions, yet 2014 was absolutely beautiful. I should not be advertising as never a bed race, but it is a wonderfull time.
Keith

 

[DowtyCamino]

The data is all available but not downloadable so it takes a bit of patience to manually pull if off of the site. I don't have the link readily available but will post it shortly....I think it was just the Santiago pilgrims office though.

SY..the data for all routes will be a good challenge for me. It is listed in percentages of pilgrims, but I'll convert it.

What I found most curious was May July and August 2016 data. It's only one year, but there seems to be a consistent pause in growth for those months (with no corresponding increases in adjacent months of June or September). This could be nothing of course, but the consistency made me go "Hmmm??"

Stay tuned.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

Certainly rain and cold are factors, but I think the ups and down in Apr and Mar are at least in part affected by Holy Week--since Sarria numbers probably are a big driver in these arrival stats, when Easter comes "early" (last week in Mar) then March numbers should go up because more people probably walked in the week prior (during March)...this would be for example 2013 and the current year. there is a corresponding drop in April for those years

 

[DowtyCamino]

Thanks for sharing this, living in a colder climate makes March/April time line very appealing. You can see the years such as 2013 the weather was continually cold wet during those months drove folks off the Camino. When I trained for April I expected those same conditions, yet 2014 was absolutely beautiful. I should not be advertising as never a bed race, but it is a wonderfull time.
Keith

Keith, March/April could be weather related, but I suspect the "Easter" effect is the more likely cause. The March bump and April slack directly match the following:

Year Month when Western Easter falls
2008 March
2009 April
2010 April
2011 April
2012 April
2013 March
2014 April
2015 April
2016 March

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

The data is all available but not downloadable so it takes a bit of patience to manually pull if off of the site. I don't have the link readily available but will post it shortly....I think it was just the Santiago pilgrims office though.

SY..the data for all routes will be a good challenge for me. It is listed in percentages of pilgrims, but I'll convert it.

What I found most curious was May July and August 2016 data. It's only one year, but there seems to be a consistent pause in growth for those months (with no corresponding increases in adjacent months of June or September). This could be nothing of course, but the consistency made me go "Hmmm??"

Stay tuned.

to my eye, 2016 May and Jul data points fall on the best fit line, it is those months of 2015 that seemed a bit (though probably not statistically significantly) out of alignment. Since Spain makes up the bulk of pilgrims, it might be interesting to see what was happening in Spain last spring into summer, or if you are using the pilgrim office data, if there was an unusual shift in the nationality breakdown of pilgrims.

 

[DowtyCamino]

to my eye, 2016 May and Jul data points fall on the best fit line, it is those months of 2015 that seemed a bit (though probably not statistically significantly) out of alignment. Since Spain makes up the bulk of pilgrims, it might be interesting to see what was happening in Spain last spring into summer, or if you are using the pilgrim office data, if there was an unusual shift in the nationality breakdown of pilgrims.

Good point Sparrow. I'll dig a bit more.....gotta do something in the months before we get back to Spain.

 

[JohnnieWalker]

Two things interest me - the growth rate year on year has been around 12% for some years. A key measurement would be whether this slows down.

Secondly two or three years ago saw the total number of foreigners arriving at the Pilgrims Office greater than Spaniards for the first time. I think that has continued? The reaction of Spanish pundits was to blame the economic crisis. Perhaps but it is also possible that the popularity of the Camino has plateaued in Spain. We'll see.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

Good point Sparrow. I'll dig a bit more.....gotta do something in the months before we get back to Spain.

love this thread, and the graphs

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

Two things interest me - the growth rate year on year has been around 12% for some years. A key measurement would be whether this slows down.

Secondly two or three years ago saw the total number of foreigners arriving at the Pilgrims Office greater than Spaniards for the first time. I think that has continued? The reaction of Spanish pundits was to blame the economic crisis. Perhaps but it is also possible that the popularity of the Camino has plateaued in Spain. We'll see.

I agree that money woes makes people less likely to spend on something that can wait. I also think most solutions have a saturation point. I would bet a higher percentage of Spaniards have received a Compostella compared other countries, it is not "new" to them, but in others people are just now "discovering" it. To compare to the spread of disease, Spain is where the initial outbreak was but now numbers are leveling out, while new "hot zones" appear in other areas.

 

[linkster]

@DowtyCamino Thanks for the graphical depiction of the data. I do not yet have a firm start date for next year, but had placed a tickler on my calendar for a September 1 start in SJPD. I have not yet reconciled some personal scheduling issues like my wedding anniversary mid September, and my Dad's birthday early in October. I have always been there, but I am going to miss something next year. Wifey has been incredibly supportive. The kids will be back in college by mid August. So I have a window of opportunity beginning mid August, and terminating by the end of October. I live in Florida so I am used to the heat, but this September sounded hot on the Camino.

The Camino is not mine, but I would not like to be inundated with a crowd every day. I assume the October arrival numbers start to decrease later in the month. Therefore, I have considered a later start ... maybe mid September. Either way, I have to learn how to let go and be open and accepting of what I will experience on the Camino. Easy to rationalize, hard to practice. To that point, your graphs are a double edged sword for me LOL.

Thanks again.

 

[DowtyCamino]

@DowtyCamino Thanks for the graphical depiction of the data. I do not yet have a firm start date for next year, but had placed a tickler on my calendar for a September 1 start in SJPD. I have not yet reconciled some personal scheduling issues like my wedding anniversary mid September, and my Dad's birthday early in October. I have always been there, but I am going to miss something next year. Wifey has been incredibly supportive. The kids will be back in college by mid August. So I have a window of opportunity beginning mid August, and terminating by the end of October. I live in Florida so I am used to the heat, but this September sounded hot on the Camino.

The Camino is not mine, but I would not like to be inundated with a crowd every day. I assume the October arrival numbers start to decrease later in the month. Therefore, I have considered a later start ... maybe mid September. Either way, I have to learn how to let go and be open and accepting of what I will experience on the Camino. Easy to rationalize, hard to practice. To that point, your graphs are a double edged sword for me LOL.

Linkster....I hoped the "Geeks only" title would dissuade anyone using this data to determine "when" to go. It's just data and it hides a lot of reality. MOST of those arriving in Santiago in any month will not have traveled from SJPP (although it is a growing percentage). Don't let the data drive you in any direction. I'm an amateur (only 1 Camino so far), so I can only speak to what I've seen reported by others. But there is advantage (and disadvantage) in all seasons. Soak in whatever season you walk.

Thanks again.

 

[linkster]

@DowtyCamino I am going with an open mind and will embrace whatever I encounter. Therein lies the conflict ... your graph is like CATNIP for a GEEK like me!

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

@linkster, I wouldn't read too much into the stats, as @DowtyCamino says, they are arrival stats only, and not reflective of how the camino will be as a whole. Even as you read some of the threads about how the camino looks at the moment during summer, some are posting how crowded, how hard to find beds, while others are saying it was no problem, their albergue is only half full. hmmm, or perhaps they are saying it is half-empty
anyway, the times the Frances gets the most crowded is generally accepted to be from Sarria onward, which would be Sept or maybe Oct ? under your plan...and that's kind of mid-point busy on the graphs...and it's only for the last few days. You can usually work around the crowds by when you start or stop walking. I dreaded the thought of leaving the Primitivo and hitting the Frances in Jun. It wasn't nearly as bad as I anticipated, and actually for the two days I was on the Frances I had a lot of time on the road to myself.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

@DowtyCamino I am going with an open mind and will embrace whatever I encounter. Therein lies the conflict ... your graph is like CATNIP for a GEEK like me!

geeks of the world, unite!

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

I don't know how much impact this had in the Aug dip this year, but looking at news from Spain from that month it seems like the big news was the government was at a standstill over loss of confidence votes since the June election, adding to the concerns over the economy. I could see that distracting me from heading out on the camino, considering how much yelling I've been doing at my television during our presidential debates this past month.

 

[linkster]

There were also a series of terrorist attacks across the EU during June and July.

 

[MTtoCamino]

Keith, March/April could be weather related, but I suspect the "Easter" effect is the more likely cause. The March bump and April slack directly match the following:

Year Month when Western Easter falls
2008 March
2009 April
2010 April
2011 April
2012 April
2013 March
2014 April
2015 April
2016 March

Yes that is true but since I had friends who walked in 2013 & stopped due to the weather, I trusted their opinions & what they experienced. The March data being the opposite I believe points to those that want more isolation & like all who do there homework prior to setting off start tracking year(s) out to find what will work for them. Some want a wall of adverse conditions to push thru. Once again thank you for taking the time to do this.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

one thing to keep in mind with Pilgrim Office stats, is it is reflecting arrivals in SdC, and where the person reported starting. You don't know if they started 6 years ago. You don't know if they, like me, started in SJPdP but crossed back and forth over many different routes. But you can tell there are some factors that will drive the numbers:

Spaniards make up almost half (mid to high 40's) of the pilgrims any given year

• the next biggest groups are in order Italians, Germans, and the US (or in previous years, portugal was #3, and sometimes Germany was number 2)--all in single digit percents

The Frances makes up 65-75% of numbers

• the next closest is the Portugues, at 13-16%, the rest are single digits (or less)

Sarria is 25% of the starting points (with SJPdP next at about half that)

so these arrival numbers mostly tell you what the Frances, especially from Sarria westward, was like, and for the most part, what the people of Spain were doing with their time. I think most other things will get lost in the background

 

[xin loi]

Difficult to believe that Sarria is only 25% of the total. only walked it twice but it appeared that the numbers of Camino-lites starting at Sarria quadrupled the total number of people on the Way.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

25% is an annual figure, I imagine it can vary month to month, week to week, even day to day, especially around Spanish holidays. I personally could not tell in Arzua who had walked from Sarria or who had walked from further east. For that matter, in Leon I could not tell who had started in Leon or Burgos or SJPdP or Le Puy or...

 

[DowtyCamino]

Geeks Only 3

• DowtyCamino
• Nov 15, 2016

The other "non Frances" routes.
This is for the Pilgrims entering Santiago in month of May for...

Very interesting indeed, do you have a similar one for the different Caminos? Buen Camino, SY

This is for pilgrims arriving in Santiago in the month of May for the various years.

 

[DowtyCamino]

Difficult to believe that Sarria is only 25% of the total. only walked it twice but it appeared that the numbers of Camino-lites starting at Sarria quadrupled the total number of people on the Way.

Geeks Only #4

• DowtyCamino
• Nov 15, 2016
• 4

Where do May Frances Pilgrims Start

If you arrived in May on the Frances...this is where your fellow Pilgrims started each year.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

it looks like those who start in Sarria make up half (approx) of the numbers arriving in SdC in May, so for a 25% annual percentage there must be some months where they are much less...or is there something off somewhere or are we looking at two different sets of Pilgrims Office statistics?
http://oficinadelperegrino.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/peregrinaciones2015.pdf

edit: i may have answered my own question. sarria starters are 25% of pilgrims arriving in SdC, not 25% of those starting on the Frances...but with frances numbers still so much higher than the other close contenders, I don't see how those starting on other caminos could make such a difference

 

[DowtyCamino]

it looks like those who start in Sarria make up half (approx) of the numbers arriving in SdC in May, so for a 25% annual percentage there must be some months where they are much less...or is there something off somewhere or are we looking at two different sets of Pilgrims Office statistics?
http://oficinadelperegrino.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/peregrinaciones2015.pdf

edit: i may have answered my own question. sarria starters are 25% of pilgrims arriving in SdC, not 25% of those starting on the Frances...but with frances numbers still so much higher than the other close contenders, I don't see how those starting on other caminos could make such a difference

That's right Sparrow, By the numbers for 2008 MAY only, for those on the Frances, 17% started in Sarria, 21% started in SJPdP and 63% elsewhere on the Frances. For the same month/year, for all those arriving in Santiago on any route, 13% started in Sarria, 17% in SJPdP, and 50% elsewhere on the Frances.

By 2016 May the numbers are quite different.
For those on the Frances, 34% started in Sarria, 24% in SJPdP, and 42% elsewhere on the Frances. For the same month/year, for those arriving in Santiago on any route, 22% started in Sarria, 16% in SJPdP and 27% elsewhere on the Frances.

<more later>....as we get deeper into the weeds.

 

[Smallest_Sparrow]

That's right Sparrow, By the numbers for 2008 MAY only, for those on the Frances, 17% started in Sarria, 21% started in SJPdP and 63% elsewhere on the Frances. For the same month/year, for all those arriving in Santiago on any route, 13% started in Sarria, 17% in SJPdP, and 50% elsewhere on the Frances.

By 2016 May the numbers are quite different.
For those on the Frances, 34% started in Sarria, 24% in SJPdP, and 42% elsewhere on the Frances. For the same month/year, for those arriving in Santiago on any route, 22% started in Sarria, 16% in SJPdP and 27% elsewhere on the Frances.

<more later>....as we get deeper into the weeds.

I wonder if part of another members' complaint that "Camino lites"--his term, most certainly not mine--quadrupled the number was in part caused by the arrival of walkers from the Norte and the Primitivo (or Norte-Primitivo ) to the Frances for the last day or two...in line with my observation that you don't know where any particular person started walking (and my corollary that it doesn't matter, anyway)