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An interesting analysis... I like your thinking!There's a number of recent posts about waves and bed races and gobs and gobs of pilgrims, so I decided to look at the actual data. I noticed an oddity in the pilgrim's office data for March compared to April. March 2016 levels were across the board higher than previous years. But, April numbers are actually down by about 20% compared to 2015 and 2014 and even further compared to 2010 as the last Jacobean Holy Year (with exception of SJPdP which seems to continue growing in popularity as a starting point, but even those numbers aren't particularly higher).
My analysis looked only at 2013-2016 totals for March and April, and I looked at total numbers registering at the pilgrim's office for each month, as well as those that started in Sarria and SJPdP, and those that walked the Frances regardless of starting point. Obviously, there's a lot more data points that could be analyzed, and numbers are a lagging result of conditions on the ground (any early to mid May surge won't make the numbers until end of June). But, even with other routes gaining in popularity, no doubt some as pressure relief, the Frances remains the "800 lb gorilla in the room," and as it goes, so seems to go the pilgrim system as a whole.
Even so, the question in my mind remains, are we misinterpreting conditions on the ground by seeing a massive surge because we expect to see one? Or are other conditions (albeit grounded in real experience) creating false perceptions?
For instance, other factors have already been noted in the other threads --- an early Easter has created ideal holiday conditions for opportunistic pilgrimages, weekend starts in major cities with consequent waves, and a food festival in Pamplona.
All of which leads me to wonder if this year will actually produce the massive spikes the prior Holy Years have, or if it will actually be a nominal increase, more consistent with a sustained, organic growth rate.
I laughed when I read your post because my father is something of a conspiracy theorist, and he posits that the Church declares a holy year or jubilee year whenever the Vatican's coffers are low and they want more money (he's actually a very faithful Catholic, but jaded about the human capacity for altruism). I pointed out that Pope Francis constructed the approach to Holy Doors and indulgences in such a way to undermine my father's argument. He was rather nonplussed because the evidence didn't support his prejudice.And just to repeat something I've said elsewhere: this Holy Year declared by Pope Francis should have no impact on the number of people walking to Santiago...unless they missed the Pope's point entirely. There are Holy Doors and indulgences available worldwide.
Agreed and understood. I've been wondering if the early Easter resulted in a dampening effect on April and we'll see a compensatory surge in May, which also falls under the seasonal adjustment for Easter. However, unless there is a surge in May that is significantly higher than 20% over 2014/15 numbers, then I think we have to wait for June and maybe even July to assess whether we're dealing with a bumper year of pilgrims.There is such a thing as "seasonally adjusted" statistics. Holidays change from year to year. Accordingly monthly figures, as reported by the Pilgrims' Office in Santiago, may lead to misinterpretations, because "slices" of pilgrims can fall in one month or the other or both. Figuring out the "adjustments" over more than 800 kilometers, with the bulk happening on the Francés and from Sarria to Santiago, will need more than an occasional look at numbers. Let's look at the month of May arrival numbers in Santiago for a better interpretation of this year's trend.
Yes, there are that many more pilgrims?I am writing from Logrono. The answer to your question is yes.
The city is 150,000 people. Even if there were 500 or so pilgrims staying there on any given weekend night, it's a small number compared to what are more likely shifts due to completely unrelated events (like Stag and Hen parties). For instance, in 2013, we faced a shortfall in beds in Sahagun because of bull fights taking up most of the non-albergue beds in the town. We left right before the big weekend, and folks behind us reported it being almost impossible to find a bed. The shortfall had nothing to do with pilgrim volumes.We struggled to find a bed in Logrono last April. We were told that it is a popular Stag and Hen party destination for young spaniards and weekends are always very busy. I'd prebooked a hotel as I was meeting my husband but fellow pilgrims struggled to find anywhere. In 2014 I arrived during the September festival and walked on as it was so busy... loved the town though
This is fantastic data. It confirms reports from on the ground that September is becoming very busy - the highest two data points leaving SJPDP are the first two weeks of September. I know this would surprise many folks I've talked to about an early fall Camino.One should also bear in mind that the number of pilgrims at the start of the Camino Francés, which the high demand for beds is currently reported for, does not equate to the number of pilgrims arriving in Santiago roughly one month later, see graphics below for typical patterns. The first image shows the number of pilgrims departing per week from SJPdP, as registered by the Pilgrims Welcome Office in SJPdP, and the second image shows the number of Compostelas given out in Santiago per month, both for 2015. Both probably reflect the peak times of pilgrims traffic although obviously not everyone registers at either end.
Note for peaks in May 2015: 1st May was in calendar week 18, Ascension Day in cw 20, Whitsun Monday in cw 22 (on 25 May 2015)
Ascension 2016 is behind us and Whitsun Monday 2016 is on 16 May this year - like now.
View attachment 25759 View attachment 25760
I was kind of hoping the "surge" was because more people were going in the spring to avoid the summer rush there by leaving june and July less populated.
I think it's important to be careful with statistics and data. This analysis is not comparing apples to apples, as the crowd reports are from early stages while the data is for completions. I think it's also important to avoid the bias of focusing on data that supports one's theory, whilest discarding data that contradicts it. Until someone installs a traffic counter at the upstream points, we will just have to wait for later months for a better data picture.... there's a lot more data points that could be analyzed...
I just heard from my son, who was in Logrono yesterday also, and he said it is a real race for beds. He is in Najera today and said he got the last bed.I am writing from Logrono. The answer to your question is yes.
Agreed that the Cathedral stats are trailing indicators and that those stats that we do have available are still early season. My question isn't discarding data or focusing on it selectively in support of a bias. If I'm discarding anything, it's the conclusions being drawn from isolated and anecdotal data points (the conclusions may indeed prove to be correct, but we have nowhere near enough data to confirm those conclusion). That people are experiencing a lack of beds is real, but so far those also appear to be at times and places where we would expect shortages to occur, so how does one differentiate?I think it's important to be careful with statistics and data. This analysis is not comparing apples to apples, as the crowd reports are from early stages while the data is for completions. I think it's also important to avoid the bias of focusing on data that supports one's theory, whilest discarding data that contradicts it. Until someone installs a traffic counter at the upstream points, we will just have to wait for later months for a better data picture.
Roncesvalles sold all their breakfast tickets before 3.00pm yesterday. That was back news for the many pilgrims taking it easy on the route from St Jean. it was windy and difficult with many arriving much later in the afternoon.
We all know that there are statistics and lies.However, if the past is a guide, and Santiago is consistent in recording pilgrim arrivals (which I know the Office is ), the trend of the first four months during the years from 2011 onward predicts increased numbers of pilgrims this year. Thus past records show (rounded to the nearest 1'000): 2011 19K, 2012 20K, 2013 21K, 2014 22K, 2015 26K and 2016 29K
There is a gradual tendency, away from the Frances in general, towards other Caminos (mainly the Portugues), but the Sarria-Santiago stretch seems able to attract ever increasing numbers (more than half the Frances walkers).
Ergo, let's walk the Invierno from Ponferrada to Santiago!
No, never does this numbers include stage by stage walkers. Only in the year of initial start (mostly only in SJPdP) and in the year of completion in Oviedo (Salvadorana), Santiago (Compostela) or Fisterra/Muxia (Fisterrana/Muxiana). And that's only if you pick up one! Maybe there are some other documents of completion I'm not aware of though.Do these numbers ever include pilgrims like me that are doing partial CF caminos each year due to not being able to take off time from work to do it all at once? Maybe that's the increase in the completos. I don't show up in the places they count (that I am aware of) since like this year I started in Burgos and ended in Astorga, yet I was taking up a bed space every night.
I've never heard of a breakfast ticket. Where do you get those??? I usually get breakfast up the trail in Burguette or ...
When you appear at Roncesvalles you are offered tickets for a bed, an evening meal and breakfast. On Saturday the take up was so great, that breakfast sold out mid afternoon. No criticism of Roncesvalles or staff. It is a wonderful place to spend an eveningI've never heard of a breakfast ticket. Where do you get those??? I usually get breakfast up the trail in Burguette or ...
For clarity . . . was it only the tickets that sold out, or did beds run out as well?When you appear at Roncesvalles you are offered tickets for a bed, an evening meal and breakfast. On Saturday the take up was so great, that breakfast sold out mid afternoon. No criticism of Roncesvalles or staff. It is a wonderful place to spend an evening
Only breafast sold out. Roncesvalles can accommodate a huge number of pilgrims in some style. Breakfast fortunately was availble within an hours walk. (and a good breakfast at that)For clarity . . . was it only the tickets that sold out, or did beds run out as well?
Burgette is great!Only breafast sold out. Roncesvalles can accommodate a huge number of pilgrims in some style. Breakfast fortunately was availble within an hours walk. (and a good breakfast at that)
Interesting. I've always gone to the restaurant and made a reservation. This is either new or I've been a dummy. Lol. Where is the breakfast??? There at the Albergue?When you appear at Roncesvalles you are offered tickets for a bed, an evening meal and breakfast. On Saturday the take up was so great, that breakfast sold out mid afternoon. No criticism of Roncesvalles or staff. It is a wonderful place to spend an evening
Prepaid and booked breakfast at Roncesvalles is a 'new' addition Annie. It is served in the dining spaces of the hotels as is the evening pilgrim dinner. In the past the Hotel La Posada offered breakfast but generally after 09:00. Since pilgrims had to be out of the albergue at 08:00 that was too long to wait for most...Personally I have always enjoyed walking by early morning winter starlight down to nearby Burguete for breakfast.
Also it's hard to estimate how many people walked into Santiago but didn't pick up their Compostela. I can only say that after talking to people which returned to Spain to walk another Camino(s) about 80% of them didn't register at Cathedral office to get 2nd or 3rd or... Compostela. That might be the fourth group or merged with the first one you've mentioned.The first premise of the cathedral statistics is that you sign in with them to receive the compostella or other certificates. If one doesn't sign in after the fact, their presence on the Camino isn't in the stats. This could be because they don't care about the documents, or because they quit along the way, or because they are section hiking and haven't (yet) completed. The last group will eventually make the stats and necessarily skew them for purpose of understanding traffic (if recorded from the start of their last section, their earlier sections aren't in the stats; if recorded from the first section, the starting point numbers indicate old traffic as recent).
I've not seen any estimates as to how many there are of the three categories above, but my assumption is that they are reasonably consistent as a proportion of the number that are documented as complete, in which case the cathedral statistics are remain a good indicator of overall system load (though not an accurate count of it). If there is a material change in their proportion relative to the number of documented completions, that would clearly skew conditions on the ground in a way that the cathedral stats can't even indicate.
Some knowledgeable sources estimate the figure to be double the number of "official" pilgrim arrivals. The Santiago hotel association reports bed occupancy and watches the Pilgrims' Office data. It's like comparing the weight of eggs with the number of bananas.Also it's hard to estimate how many people walked into Santiago but didn't pick up their Compostela.[...].
Double as inSome knowledgeable sources estimate the figure to be double the number of "official" pilgrim arrivals. The Santiago hotel association reports bed occupancy and watches the Pilgrims' Office data. It's like comparing the weight of eggs with the number of bananas.
Beds in Santiago are not really relevant as there are many tourists groups that fly into SdC. Not to mention large scout/school etc. groups that occupy Seminario Menor from time to time.Some knowledgeable sources estimate the figure to be double the number of "official" pilgrim arrivals. The Santiago hotel association reports bed occupancy and watches the Pilgrims' Office data. It's like comparing the weight of eggs with the number of bananas.
According to my 'When are the busy periods...' charts, the pattern that you've shown for SJPP lasts until about Astorga, when it begins to change to the pattern seen for arrivals in Santiago. The data shown in my charts is for 2013 so it's a bit out of date now, but 2014 was almost identical, and I haven't got round to doing 2015 yet! The method for these draws heavily on seasonal adjustment methodology also been mentioned in this thread, but just measures the seasonality rather than adjusting for it. It doesn't take into account calendar events (Easter etc) because that's a different can of worms!Thank you but please bear in mind that it simply means that May and September are busy months for people leaving from SJPdP. Closer to Burgos, Leon or Santiago it may be a different picture.
Burgette is great!
There's a number of recent posts about waves and bed races and gobs and gobs of pilgrims, so I decided to look at the actual data. I noticed an oddity in the pilgrim's office data for March compared to April. March 2016 levels were across the board higher than previous years. But, April numbers are actually down by about 20% compared to 2015 and 2014 and even further compared to 2010 as the last Jacobean Holy Year (with exception of SJPdP which seems to continue growing in popularity as a starting point, but even those numbers aren't particularly higher).
My analysis looked only at 2013-2016 totals for March and April, and I looked at total numbers registering at the pilgrim's office for each month, as well as those that started in Sarria and SJPdP, and those that walked the Frances regardless of starting point. Obviously, there's a lot more data points that could be analyzed, and numbers are a lagging result of conditions on the ground (any early to mid May surge won't make the numbers until end of June). But, even with other routes gaining in popularity, no doubt some as pressure relief, the Frances remains the "800 lb gorilla in the room," and as it goes, so seems to go the pilgrim system as a whole.
Even so, the question in my mind remains, are we misinterpreting conditions on the ground by seeing a massive surge because we expect to see one? Or are other conditions (albeit grounded in real experience) creating false perceptions?
For instance, other factors have already been noted in the other threads --- an early Easter has created ideal holiday conditions for opportunistic pilgrimages, weekend starts in major cities with consequent waves, and a food festival in Pamplona.
All of which leads me to wonder if this year will actually produce the massive spikes the prior Holy Years have, or if it will actually be a nominal increase, more consistent with a sustained, organic growth rate.
I am sure there are lots of pilgrims who don't collect their compostelas. I'm currently in Santiago having walked from Porto and I have no intention of queuing for one. I received my precious compostela from my first Camino but I hope, God willing, to walk many more but I have no particular desire to collect more compostelas. Talking to pilgrims on the Portuguese route during the past few days it's clear that many second, third and more time pilgrims don't register at the pilgrims office on arrival. There are so many better things to do in Santiago than stand in a queue.Also it's hard to estimate how many people walked into Santiago but didn't pick up their Compostela. I can only say that after talking to people which returned to Spain to walk another Camino(s) about 80% of them didn't register at Cathedral office to get 2nd or 3rd or... Compostela. That might be the fourth group or merged with the first one you've mentioned.
Wow, your first post since you've joined the forum in 2011!!! How could you avoid the temptation? Amazing!I am sure there are lots of pilgrims who don't collect their compostelas. I'm currently in Santiago having walked from Porto and I have no intention of queuing for one. I received my precious compostela from my first Camino but I hope, God willing, to walk many more but I have no particular desire to collect more compostelas. Talking to pilgrims on the Portuguese route during the past few days it's clear that many second, third and more time pilgrims don't register at the pilgrims office on arrival. There are so many better things to do in Santiago than stand in a queue.
As I said, the church is parsimonious. So, the Pilgrim Office must be self-supporting. Insofar as I am aware, they do not receive operating funds from the Cathedral administrative budget, as such. Funding to pay the staff, and operating costs, must come from revenues raised at the Pilgrim Office. So, they are reliant on donations, and the small profit from sales of Mileage Certificates, tubos, and miscellaneous souvenirs. But Compostelas remain free, although donations are appreciated.
I hope this helps.
... I would like to make a donation to the Pilgrim Office fund but don't know how to go about doing so now I am back at home, can you advise please?
Just ask them here about this http://peregrinossantiago.es/eng/pilgrims-office/contact-us/
Buen Camino, SY
I came here for a journey after the loss of my son and now I'm losing hope. It is so much coming a race for beds that people are actually skipping using buses so they can get to place to get a bed. In Carrion the placed opened at 12 and was full by 1:30. Tomorrow is scheduled for 16 miles in the heat, the last day I did that I overdid it and ended up with a sick day to recover. Still looking for peace and hope to find it.
I am sure there are lots of pilgrims who don't collect their compostelas. I'm currently in Santiago having walked from Porto and I have no intention of queuing for one. I received my precious compostela from my first Camino but I hope, God willing, to walk many more but I have no particular desire to collect more compostelas. Talking to pilgrims on the Portuguese route during the past few days it's clear that many second, third and more time pilgrims don't register at the pilgrims office on arrival. There are so many better things to do in Santiago than stand in a queue.
The pilgrims office recorded 28,849 in May 2010, the last Holy Year. In May 2015 they recorded 31,078 and in May this year (2016) they recorded 32,782.The numbers for May 2016 - arrivals in Santiago who claimed a Compostela - are out. So what's the verdict?
Talking to pilgrims on the Portuguese route during the past few days it's clear that many second, third and more time pilgrims don't register at the pilgrims office on arrival. There are so many better things to do in Santiago than stand in a queue.
The May arrival numbers are unlikely to reflect the impact of any significant increase in departures from SJPP in early May. I expect that only those doing around 30km/day would have arrived in time to collect their Compostela in the last week. You would need to wait till the June arrival numbers are available, and even the a increase over a week or so will have smoothed out. In any case, I don't think the linkage between departure date and arrival date will be strong enough to form any statistically valid conclusions. There will never be a clear 'verdict'.The numbers for May 2016 - arrivals in Santiago who claimed a Compostela - are out. So what's the verdict?
What I'd best time to aueue for the compostela would you say?Also it's hard to estimate how many people walked into Santiago but didn't pick up their Compostela. I can only say that after talking to people which returned to Spain to walk another Camino(s) about 80% of them didn't register at Cathedral office to get 2nd or 3rd or... Compostela. That might be the fourth group or merged with the first one you've mentioned.
I presume you mean queue. I have pretty much gone to the Pilgrim Office as soon as I have arrived. This year I walked with my wife, and we stopped at San Marcos overnight. So we were rather earlier than I was on the two previous times. While it might have been tempting to spend a few moments savouring our arrival at the Praza Obradorio, it was raining and we decided to go straight to the Pilgrim Office and collect our compostelas. Another consideration might be whether you want to go to the pilgrim mass if you arrive before midday. You might then choose to defer going to the Pilgrim Office until afterwards.What I'd best time to aueue for the compostela would you say?
What I'd best time to aueue for the compostela would you say?
The pilgrims office recorded 28,849 in May 2010, the last Holy Year. In May 2015 they recorded 31,078 and in May this year (2016) they recorded 32,782.
http://peregrinossantiago.es/eng/pilgrims-office/statistics/
What is a breakfast ticket? Is this something I need to pre-buy?Roncesvalles sold all their breakfast tickets before 3.00pm yesterday. That was back news for the many pilgrims taking it easy on the route from St Jean. it was windy and difficult with many arriving much later in the afternoon.
If you want breakfast in one of the two restaurants that serve pilgrim meals in Roncesvalles you need to purchase a ticket when you arrive at the albergue. You will also be offered to buy a ticket for dinner too. I bought one for the "big breakfast" when I walked, and personally, I wouldn't buy one again. It wasn't that great. And I found that I preferred to walk a few miles in the morning before stopping to eat.What is a breakfast ticket? Is this something I need to pre-buy?
I never experienced a mad dash for beds on the Camino this year. I also understand that there are more albergues now than 10 years ago.In 2006 when i did my camino, there were around 107000 pilgrims and 2016 not counting December over 270000. I am actually shocked about the growth in numbers and i can imagine the mad run for beds at the albergues.
If you want breakfast in one of the two restaurants that serve pilgrim meals in Roncesvalles you need to purchase a ticket when you arrive at the albergue. You will also be offered to buy a ticket for dinner too. I bought one for the "big breakfast" when I walked, and personally, I wouldn't buy one again. It wasn't that great. And I found that I preferred to walk a few miles in the morning before stopping to eat.
And here is the pattern for pilgrims at the SJPDP Pilgrim Welcome office for 2016 by week. Similar to 2015 (see above), with peaks in late April and throughout May and in September:
View attachment 30525
Source: Accueil Pélèrins St Jean Pied de Port
Insecurity. Afraid they won't find something a few km later. I walked some 4 km (cannot eat just after getting up) and found a bakery that had ok bread but delicious artisanal dark chocolate.Well said trecile,
How any one eats at Roncesvalles in the early morning instead of 4 km up the road astounds me.
I will get severe reactions but i hope it is from people who HAVE walked the camino.
From your fingers to God's ears, let's hope they have.The real question here IMO is therefore NOT "Are there really that many more pilgrims ?" (answer : oh yes !!!), but rather "Have the yearly pilgrim numbers peaked or not ?"
There's a number of recent posts about waves and bed races and gobs and gobs of pilgrims, so I decided to look at the actual data. I noticed an oddity in the pilgrim's office data for March compared to April. March 2016 levels were across the board higher than previous years. But, April numbers are actually down by about 20% compared to 2015 and 2014 and even further compared to 2010 as the last Jacobean Holy Year (with exception of SJPdP which seems to continue growing in popularity as a starting point, but even those numbers aren't particularly higher).
My analysis looked only at 2013-2016 totals for March and April, and I looked at total numbers registering at the pilgrim's office for each month, as well as those that started in Sarria and SJPdP, and those that walked the Frances regardless of starting point. Obviously, there's a lot more data points that could be analyzed, and numbers are a lagging result of conditions on the ground (any early to mid May surge won't make the numbers until end of June). But, even with other routes gaining in popularity, no doubt some as pressure relief, the Frances remains the "800 lb gorilla in the room," and as it goes, so seems to go the pilgrim system as a whole.
Even so, the question in my mind remains, are we misinterpreting conditions on the ground by seeing a massive surge because we expect to see one? Or are other conditions (albeit grounded in real experience) creating false perceptions?
For instance, other factors have already been noted in the other threads --- an early Easter has created ideal holiday conditions for opportunistic pilgrimages, weekend starts in major cities with consequent waves, and a food festival in Pamplona.
All of which leads me to wonder if this year will actually produce the massive spikes the prior Holy Years have, or if it will actually be a nominal increase, more consistent with a sustained, organic growth rate.
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