- Time of past OR future Camino
- Too many and too often!
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Interesting, I wonder how this will change in a holy year.
When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.
Holy year = winter walkWhen is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.
I just looked this up. The next Holy Year is 2021. Whew! I’m planning to walk in 2020.
The total for the 2010 Holy Year was almost double the figure for 2009. An increase in that sort of scale would be interesting to say the least....
I calculated the rate of increase in total annual pilgrims received at the pilgrim Office from 2009 to 2010. IIRC, the rate of increase was 54 percent from the pre-Holy Year year (2009) to the actual Holy Year (2010). WOW!
Camino de Invierno 100km point is in Monforte de Lemos....
For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...
Try the:
There are other Camino detour alternatives to keep you off the main route of march most of the time. Learn them.
- Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
- Camino Ingles from Ferrol
- Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
- Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.
...
It's interesting that the numbers have declined along all sections of the CF other than Sarria - Santiago. For me the Sarria part was the least enjoyable (not because of the crowds which don't really bother me). I found the other rural parts of Spain truly enjoyable (even and particularly the mesetas). I'll bet the numbers would change if they changed the requirements for the compostela
When is the next Holy Year? I want to be sure to avoid walking then.
I just looked this up. The next Holy Year is 2021. Whew! I’m planning to walk in 2020.[/QUOTE
Whew again!!
Thank you for that Tomnorth,
We will also be walking the CF around June 2020
Annette
Arithmetic was never one of my best subjects but I wonder how you reach the figure of a 54% increase. According to the pilgrim office statistics 145,877 Compostelas were issued in 2009 and 272,135 in the 2010 Holy Year. I make that an additional 126,258 people and therefore an 87% increase on the previous year.
Is Spanish proficiency important?You are correct mathematically. Using your numbers, I get the same result. As I did my original calculation some months ago, I am trying to remember where I obtained my numbers for 2009 and 2010...ah, perhaps a senior moment...
But, the point is made. Even if my numbers WERE correct, and worked out to a 54 percent one-year increase, from 2009 to 2010, an increase of 87 percent (as you point out) would be even MORE catastrophic.
I will continue to try to recall where I got my numbers... However, the computational logic holds true, I think.
Just for yucks, if I substitute your 87% for my 54%, the resulting projection for 2021 would be about 740,000. DOUBLE YIKES!
Perhaps we should just agree to stipulate that, based on known volumes of pilgrims arriving at the Pilgrim Office, the likely 2021 volumes range anywhere from surprisingly large to crippling.
Given this, I would suggest that more of you Camino veterans consider offering your services as volunteers at the Pilgrim Office. Given what we think we know, they will be in dire need of more bodies to help keep the queues moving. I would recommend contacting them in late 2020.
Thanks for the discussion.
Hope this helps.
I think what you did was calculate that the 2009 numbers were only 54% of the 2010 numbers. But that is the inverse of what you wanted to do.As I did my original calculation some months ago, I am trying to remember where I obtained my numbers for 2009 and 2010.
Doesn’t surprise me. But an 84 % increase is downright frightening in its ramifications.
I will probably walk some part of the Caminos that year. But if so it will be one of the quiet routes in the middle of winter. I am not comfortable with big crowds and the Xunta is trying very hard to generate interest in the 2021 Holy Year with an intention of attracting up to 500,000 pilgrims receiving Compostelas for the year.
What strikes me about these numbers is the fact that, since 1993, the increase of pilgrims who obtain a Compostela during a Jacobean Holy Year, compared to the previous year, is nearly constant, very roughly a plus in the region of 100,000 pilgrims.
Interesting. The Holy Year of 1982 appears to be the turning point and the beginning of more or less steady growth.Would be pretty modest compared with some Holy Year spikes in the past. Just been looking at the annual totals as given on the Spanish Wikipedia article on the Caminos. The 1993 Holy Year was the first to be very actively promoted by the Xunta and other Spanish official bodies. In 1992 there had been 9,764 Compostelas handed out. In the 1993 Holy Year that jumped to 99,436. More than 10 times the previous year. Imagine the queues at the pilgrim office and the bed rush if that happens in 2021
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno
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I didn't even know about the Holy Year until after I finished the CF in May this year. I am glad it's not a holy year. From Sarria to SDC is my least favourite section because the energy on the Camino changed after Sarria. We love the Meseta, if we walk the CF again, we will stop at Leon and avoid the last section. Sorry this might be off topic, but we are thinking about the Francigena to Rome in a few years, from your experience, will there be more people walking the Francigena in 2021 because it is a Holy Year?
I believe 2021 is a Jacobean Holy Year (when July 25 falls on a Sunday) rather than one of the more general Holy Years occasionally proclaimed by the Pope. As such, I would expect to only affect the Caminos de Santiago.I didn't even know about the Holy Year until after I finished the CF in May this year. I am glad it's not a holy year. From Sarria to SDC is my least favourite section because the energy on the Camino changed after Sarria. We love the Meseta, if we walk the CF again, we will stop at Leon and avoid the last section. Sorry this might be off topic, but we are thinking about the Francigena to Rome in a few years, from your experience, will there be more people walking the Francigena in 2021 because it is a Holy Year?
Or picking a lovely starting point in France and ending in SJPP.Holy year = winter walk
or 2018, the Pilgrim Office processed some 327k pilgrims. Do the math... Figure at least a 10 percent increase in 2019, then in 2020. Then in 2021 assume maybe as much as 50 percent additional over the 2020 result.
Unfortunately, thriving villages need an economy that goes beyond fast food service for itinerant passersby during high season. I think increased numbers on the Sarria-Santiago stretch would be a problem. and undesirable. Modest increases on the earlier parts might be fine.Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive.
I like the sound of thatHoly year = winter walk
You’re not the only one DebraAm I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive. Yes, finding a place to sleep "unplanned" might be difficult but it is now so easy to plan ahead. Maybe it will also give incentive for more camping sites to pop up.I would love that.
If previous Jacobean Holy Years are anything to go by with, the increase in numbers will be mainly felt in the parts of the Camino Frances and other roads that are closer to Santiago, ie in Galicia. During the two previous Holy Years 2004 and 2010, the increase in numbers was mainly due to Spanish pilgrims and concerned in particular starting points like Sarria, Cebreiro and Tui.Interesting, I wonder how this will change in a holy year. The first 400k were my favorite part of the Frances. Would love to do them again.
And I thought it was busy in 2001!Would be pretty modest compared with some Holy Year spikes in the past. Just been looking at the annual totals as given on the Spanish Wikipedia article on the Caminos. The 1993 Holy Year was the first to be very actively promoted by the Xunta and other Spanish official bodies. In 1992 there had been 9,764 Compostelas handed out. In the 1993 Holy Year that jumped to 99,436. More than 10 times the previous year. Imagine the queues at the pilgrim office and the bed rush if that happens in 2021
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camino_de_Santiago#El_Camino_moderno
View attachment 50435
Is there a prediction for a vintage year for Bierzo wine?Will I walk on the roads to Santiago in 2021 if I'm still around and able to do so? I dunno. I very much like the idea of walking to Villafranca del Bierzo in 2021 but I won't say why.
Thanks for this, especially the Greenway switcheroo route.For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...
Try the:
- Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
- Camino Ingles from Ferrol
- Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
- Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.
Thanks for this, especially the Greenway switcheroo route.
How do these compare to the CF in difficulty?
Am I the only one that is happy to see an increase in pilgrims? I think of those small, nearly deserted villages and the people begging the passing by pilgrims to stop to eat at their cafe. I would love to see those places come to life and thrive. Yes, finding a place to sleep "unplanned" might be difficult but it is now so easy to plan ahead. Maybe it will also give incentive for more camping sites to pop up.I would love that.
Did the Camino from Le Puy, you can't go wrong with that one. Just finished the Norte. Started in the middle of September. The first couple of weeks are hard but really beautiful. About 5 days out of Santander I was alone most days and even had a few albergues where I was the lone Pilgrim.Or picking a lovely starting point in France and ending in SJPP.
Monforte de Lemos. Then it becomes more rolling for the last 100 km or so.
Is there a section-by-section breakdown of Camino stats somewhere? I’d love to see that.In fact, travel along all of the Frances — if you leave out the Sarria - SDC section — has decreased in each of the last 4 years. Omitting the Sarria - SDC only pilgrims, 97,689 pilgrims walked the Frances in 2018 vs. 101,020 in 2017.
Is there a section-by-section breakdown of Camino stats somewhere? I’d love to see that.
Compounding with share returns or term deposits is the way to a fortune , not sure if compounding pilgrim numbers is the factual way t2.
Anything can happen
THEY WILL COME!
THEY WILL COME!
Interesting. The Holy Year of 1982 appears to be the turning point and the beginning of more or less steady growth.
To some extent, of course, it will depend on the aims and on the success of PR campaigns, but let's face it, outside of Spain, "the Camino" is better known than Saint James and his feast day and Holy Years. I sometimes get the impression that pilgrims know little more about it all other than the apostle's name and that he wears pilgrim's clothes and carries a stick ...
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