The total for the 2010 Holy Year was almost double the figure for 2009. An increase in that sort of scale would be interesting to say the least....
I calculated the rate of increase in total annual pilgrims received at the pilgrim Office from 2009 to 2010. IIRC, the rate of increase was 54 percent from the pre-Holy Year year (2009) to the actual Holy Year (2010). WOW!
For 2018, the Pilgrim Office processed some 327k pilgrims. Do the math... Figure at least a 10 percent increase in 2019, then in 2020. Then in 2021 assume maybe as much as 50 percent additional over the 2020 result.
2019 or A = (327k x 1.10) = A = 359,700
2020 or B = (A x 1.10) = B = 395,700
2021 or C = (B x 1.50) = C = 593,500
YIKES!
If anyone finds errors in this logic, please jump in... I was trying to be conservative in my year-to-year rates of increase. In fact, the year-to-year increases have been running more than my assumed 10% annually. Plus, the actual 2009 - 2010 rate of increase was 54 percent. I used 50 percent...
NOTE: This DOES NOT include those folks who just arrived at the Pilgrim Office, asked for a stamp / sello, and went away. It also does not include folks who just end their Camino with a sello from their lodgings at Santiago.
This also does not include pilgrims who arrive by bus, trains, and automobiles. Catholic doctrine regarding obtaining the plenary indulgence requires that the pilgrim complete certain activities and perform specific religious duties.
However, a pilgrimage into Santiago is not one of the prerequisites to receive the plenary indulgence. So, a pilgrim arriving during the Holy Year does not have to walk into Santiago. BUT, they can go to the Pilgrim Office to request a Certificate of Visitation (to the Cathedral). This means they will factor into the overall volume there. They will also use valuable bed space.
These "tourigrinos" may not impose a burden out on the Camino heading IN TO Santiago, but they will certainly gum up the works in Santiago proper.
I have no idea what the variance in actual numbers is or will be, but I would hazard a reasonable quess of at least 10 - 15 percent additional pilgrims not captured in the official stats. So, as regards the coming Holy Year, PLAN AHEAD to avoid as much of the 'pig in the proverbial python' as you can.
Assume that lodgings on the major routes, Francis, Portuguese, Norte, Plata, and Primitivo will be over-subscribed, at least from May through September. You can forget doing the last 100 km on any of these routes. I assess that this is where the initial glut will be seen.
For the past several years, and into the present, some of us have been noodling around with alternatives that serve to avoid the final 100 km on many of the most popular routes. Examples include, but are NOT limited to...
Try the:
- Camino Invierno from Ponferrada into Santiago, 260 km.
- Camino Ingles from Ferrol
- Camino Portuguese (variants) that take you to the west and swing around into Santiago at the last moment.
- Camino Primitivo from Oviedo, to Lugo, then detour on the Greenway trail west to link with the del Norte, at Sobrado. This does not join the end of the Frances until around Brea or Lavacolla(there are plenty of lodging options there). From Brea or Lavacolla, you walk directly into Santiago the next day.
There are other Camino detour alternatives to keep you off the main route of march most of the time. Learn them.
Alternatively, plan YOUR Camino in an off-peak time, before mid-May or after mid-September.
Finally, instead of walking, consider volunteering instead at the Pilgrim Office in Santiago during the Holy Year 2021. I presume it will be "all hands to the pumps" all year. See my separate thread on the volunteering issue... Lodging is free. They require a minimum two-week commitment. My annual stint is a month. But, I have been doing this six-years running.
http://www.caminodesantiago.me/comm...pilgrim-office-at-santiago.52794/#post-667906
Planning ahead is your best method to avoid the coming crowds...
Hope this helps.