Super El Niño and the camino

[jirit]

It is official! Experts are predicting a super El Niño for this year and through this winter.

Some thoughts on how it might affect the camino in Spain :
( hint: hot summer, wet Fall and cold winter, followed by more of the same next year)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/d99e9ee4-2a79-3500-a1d4-07028ecb58d1

 

[Icacos]

Tons and tons of snow, I guess? No Route Napoleon?

 

[Tia Valeria]

The BBC article was written in March 2014

 

[jirit]

Yes you are correct the BBC article is from March but focuses more on Europe and UK.

More recent news confirms the earlier predictions

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us...rming-plateau-rising-with-el-nino-2015/51433/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-fears-El-Nino-cause-harsh-winter-Europe.html

 

[Pattii]

It is official! Experts are predicting a super El Niño for this year and through this winter.

Some thoughts on how it might affect the camino in Spain :
( hint: hot summer, wet Fall and cold winter, followed by more of the same next year)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/d99e9ee4-2a79-3500-a1d4-07028ecb58d1

I would think it would depend when one walks. It would definitely affect those who struggle with respiratory illnesses or severe arthritis which can be exasperated with colder wetter weather. On the other hand it might be fine for those used to colder/hotter weather. I would only worry that things might be damper in the albergues during the wetter months and much stuffier in the summer months. I think people should take precautions in summer regarding heatstroke/water consumption/ sunburns etc. WEAR A HAT FOR SURE! and in the colder months it might be good to take some hints from those of us up north who deal with colder weather often...ie earmuffs, good slip free boots, ski/walking poles...and definitely maybe avoid the Pyrenees and take the alternate route in winter, late fall and early spring.
Thoughts?

 

[jirit]

latest update on the record braking heat wave in Europe

http://www.forbes.com/sites/cecilia...-scorching-europe-triggers-widespread-alerts/

 

[dougfitz]

It is official! Experts are predicting a super El Niño for this year and through this winter.

Some thoughts on how it might affect the camino in Spain :
( hint: hot summer, wet Fall and cold winter, followed by more of the same next year)

Really, the BBC article you quote - which is hardly an 'official' source, is quite clear about the effects in the Mediterranean being milder winters, not more severe

Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean. (emphasis added)​

Tons and tons of snow, I guess? No Route Napoleon?

Not really. El Nino has most impact in the Pacific Ocean. While it will create some changes worldwide, they get smaller the further from the Pacific, such as in Europe! A nice animation of the current effects can be found here.

The BBC article was written in March 2014

The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Service is predicting this will continue in 2015 (here).

I would think that there are more significant effects on southern European weather than El Nino and the Southern Oscillation Index. I am sure that weather forecasters, including the author of the original (non-official) BBC article, will take any small impacts into account in their predictions, but I don't think El Nino effects are really going to make a noticeable difference to anyone planning to walk the Camino.

 

[jirit]

Really, the BBC article you quote - which is hardly an 'official' source, is quite clear about the effects in the Mediterranean being milder winters, not more severe

Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean. (emphasis added)​

Not really. El Nino has most impact in the Pacific Ocean. While it will create some changes worldwide, they get smaller the further from the Pacific, such as in Europe! A nice animation of the current effects can be found here.


The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Service is predicting this will continue in 2015 (here).

I would think that there are more significant effects on southern European weather than El Nino and the Southern Oscillation Index. I am sure that weather forecasters, including the author of the original (non-official) BBC article, will take any small impacts into account in their predictions, but I don't think El Nino effects are really going to make a noticeable difference to anyone planning to walk the Camino.

I always thought the BBC was the "official" conduit for the UK government and all things official like

And for the impact being mostly in the winter, tell that to the folks in Spain, France and Portugal and the UK!

 

[dougfitz]

I always thought the BBC was the "official" conduit for the UK government and all things official like

And for the impact being mostly in the winter, tell that to the folks in Spain, France and Portugal and the UK!

I understand the BBC is a public broadcaster, not an official broadcaster for the UK Government. You might want to read its charter and agreement that establish it as an independent corporation, linked here.

On your second point, it is easy to be a scaremonger and create concerns without any basis in fact. Your suggestions in your original post appear to me to be verging on doing just that.