Weather forecast - YIKES??!

[MARSKA]

Hola todos! I'm beginning to watch the weather across the CF closely as I will be walking in April. I saw this and thought it might be good info for those walking now in Navarra as AEMET is predicting wind gusts of up to 90km/hr. But maybe this is normal for this time of year????

https://www.tiempo.com/avisos-meteorologicos/avisos-mna.html

Quote from the above:
Ambit Navarrese Pyrenees
StartMarch 8, 2024 1:00 p.m.
EndMarch 8, 2024 16:59 Probability40%-70%
Description Maximum gusts: 90 km/h. Winds from the south and southeast. Be careful.

ALSO

very high winds along the coast of Portugal (force 8)

 

[Vacajoe]

It’s winter, storms are normal for now. Historically, April has been a nice mixture of early month snowstorms giving way to increasing sunshine among sporadic rain. There’s a big difference in a month.

 

[domigee]

Hola todos! I'm beginning to watch the weather across the CF closely as I will be walking in April. I saw this and thought it might be good info for those walking now in Navarra as AEMET is predicting wind gusts of up to 90km/hr. But maybe this is normal for this time of year????

https://www.tiempo.com/avisos-meteorologicos/avisos-mna.html

Quote from the above:
Ambit Navarrese Pyrenees
StartMarch 8, 2024 1:00 p.m.
EndMarch 8, 2024 16:59 Probability40%-70%
Description Maximum gusts: 90 km/h. Winds from the south and southeast. Be careful.

ALSO

very high winds along the coast of Portugal (force 8)

I walked in mid-April 2 years ago and it was snowing when we started. In fact, they closed the 'Napoleon route' but let us through as we were booked in Borda. The wind when reaching the top nearly blew us off the path. Then it was torrential rain and Zubiri was practically impassable... Be prepared

 

[rappahannock_rev]

You saw some bad weather on your last walk.... And survived!

 

[MARSKA]

You saw some bad weather on your last walk.... And survived!

Oh yes I did! And met some super people on the way- like you!
Bad but not dangerous weather. 90km winds sounds dangerous to me.
Anyway, just trying to give a heads up to anyone out there on the camino that might not otherwise be aware.

 

[domigee]

I

I walked in mid-April 2 years ago and it was snowing when we started. In fact, they closed the 'Napoleon route' but let us through as we were booked in Borda. The wind when reaching the top nearly blew us off the path. Then it was torrential rain and Zubiri was practically impassable... Be prepared

I must add that we met a few special mountain guardia civil when going up, if they let you through, you'll be safe, if you're adequately clothed.... They're very careful, they don't want any accidents...

 

[good_old_shoes]

Early spring weather is unpredictable and can change very quickly. Especially in the mountains.

So I probably wouldn't even trust the weather report for the next day, but before starting my walk of the day, have a look at the radar for the next few hours instead (which usually is very accurate) and have a good look at the sky. Then adapt to the given conditions (unless there is a major official weather warning of course, then no walking). Adapting to the conditions can also mean stop walking early, turn around back to the nearest town, hop on a bus, ect.

For me it will also be a spring Camino this year. Has been a while and I'm more nervous what to pack than usually, which is a weird feeling.

I'll pack clothes for layers, and this time boots and some lightweight gaiters too. If snow is in the forecast the day before I start my travels, I'll bring my snow chains/spikes. No swimming suit this time, that's for sure .

 

[Kathar1na]

There are currently official severe weather warnings for the next few days for some parts of Spain, including the Pyrenean area between SJPP and Roncesvalles. Warning levels are yellow and orange. You don’t see it when you look into the sky in the morning, you see it on a TV screen in a bar or on your mobile phone or on the printed weather forecast that is put up on a bord in the Pilgrim Office of SJPP.

One of the reasons for the warnings for this area are high velocity wind gusts. The other reason is snowfall. The warning today is from 8 pm until midnight for this area. For tomorrow the probability of high velocity wind gusts is 40-70%, no doubt there will be a better prediction published on the Aemet website tomorrow.

Wind gusts are strongest on the mountain side when you are exposed to the elements from all sides. One year we met a woman who had walked the Route Napoleon (currently prohibited to walk on the Spanish part but open then in May) the day before us who had been lifted up by a strong wind gust and had broken her shoulder blade when she fell down. End of Camino for her after only half a day, she returned back home in Canada. I had been aware of the weather forecast on that day, she apparently not. (We had been walking in the valley towards the Pyrenees where it had been fairly calm unlike only 25 km further away on the mountain side.)

 

[Corned Beef]

I must add that we met a few special mountain guardia civil when going up, if they let you through, you'll be safe,

Do the Spanish Guardia Civil operate on the French side? Seems a good idea if they do.

 

[good_old_shoes]

There are currently official severe weather warnings for the next few days for some parts of Spain, including the Pyrenean area between SJPP and Roncesvalles. Warning levels are yellow and orange. You don’t see it when you look into the sky in the morning, you see it on a TV screen in a bar or on your mobile phone or on the printed weather forecast that is put up on a bord in the Pilgrim Office of SJPP.

It is of course right that one should read the weather forecast. Online, in the newspaper, or watch it on TV. When there's an official warning, it is important to be very cautious. It didn't mean that people should ignore the weather forecast.

What I wanted to say with "look at the sky" is that even though the weather forecast on let's say wednesday says "good weather tomorrow thursday" it can still be horrible thunderstorms the next day, if the weather is overall unstable at the time. Or a storm that has been predicted is much worse or much tamer than predicted.

Looking at the weather forecast, sky, and weather radar for the next hours combined, will give a much more thourough picture than trusting yesterday's weather report only.

The thing is that I've seen too many severe thunderstorms happen when the weather forecast said "perfect weather no risk" showing all green... The weather apps still said "perfect weather no risk" even while the thunder was already roaring loudly, and you could see the storm roll in on the radar, and the sky turning pitch black already. Or an orange warning for storms, and nothing happened, it went another route than predicted...

So of course everyone should check the weather forecast. But I certainly won't rely on that only.

Here in Germany a yellow warning gets issued even for harmless things like temperature below zero or strong rain. It is more of a pre-warning - "be careful". A yellow warning for snow would mean a very light snowfall. Nothing dangerous. Orange has a slightly higher risk of actual severe weather, but it is still a "risk" only and means you should be very careful, check the radar more often to see if your area might really be hit, and if, when. Red means a very high risk for dangerous weather, and that you should stay inside.

Maybe the risk levels are different in France and Spain? I guess I need to do some research!

 

[Kathar1na]

A nice article about what it means. I saw it three days ago: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/wet...chkeit-a-44cf8f40-584d-4af2-a878-b95e4d90818d - "Do you understand the weather forecast?"

It is in German but the web translation into English works well. For what it is worth, I, too, struggle with the meaning of probability.

As to the OP: It's not normal weather but it is not highly unusual weather either. And these speeds are wind gust speed, not a continuous storm. It is more "Watch for it and adapt your plans for tomorrow" and not "YIKES??!"

And yes, alarm levels are specific to the area or country. I see it each time when an autumn or winter storm travels over my house and there is no official alarm as to the wind gust speed. Back home where I grew up - very inland - it would be high alarm under such circumstances and "batten down the hatches".

 

[good_old_shoes]

A nice article about what it means. I saw it three days ago: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/wet...chkeit-a-44cf8f40-584d-4af2-a878-b95e4d90818d - "Do you understand the weather forecast?"

It is in German but the web translation into English works well. For what it is worth, I, too, struggle with the meaning of probability.

I think this one explains the colour coding for German weather warnings well.

Wetter und Klima - Deutscher Wetterdienst - Warnungen aktuell - Warnstufen und Farbskala

www.dwd.de

If someone has links to the french and spanish equivalents for that, that would be great!

 

[Kathar1na]

colour coding for German weather

The main point of the article I quoted, just to make it clear, is explaining rain probability (or thunderstorm etc probability) - where, when, how much it might rain the next day. Something I did not know: A 70% probability of rain for tomorrow means that there was precipitation at this location in 7 out of 10 cases under comparable weather conditions in the past.

 

[davejsy]

But maybe this is normal for this time of year????

Unfortunately with climate change there is no normal now really, and the forecasts are very rarely accurate more than 48hrs out (even 24hrs sometimes) because they are based on now outdated models from when the world wasn't in quite such a mess. So at best, we are now left with semi-educated guesses.

Like the forecasts, we can only plan for our Caminos based on previous years and hope, and take advice from locals or people in the know on the day if the weather situation is potentially tricky. The reality is you need to be ready for anything at that time of year, whether that be Eskimo suits or bikinis.

 

[NomadJMJ]

It’s winter, storms are normal for now. Historically, April has been a nice mixture of early month snowstorms giving way to increasing sunshine among sporadic rain. There’s a big difference in a month.

No, it's springtime. You will see EVERY type of weather. Hot, cold, sun, cloudy, rain, & snow.

 

[Sue127]

Early spring weather is unpredictable and can change very quickly. Especially in the mountains.

So I probably wouldn't even trust the weather report for the next day, but before starting my walk of the day, have a look at the radar for the next few hours instead (which usually is very accurate) and have a good look at the sky. Then adapt to the given conditions (unless there is a major official weather warning of course, then no walking). Adapting to the conditions can also mean stop walking early, turn around back to the nearest town, hop on a bus, ect.

For me it will also be a spring Camino this year. Has been a while and I'm more nervous what to pack than usually, which is a weird feeling.

I'll pack clothes for layers, and this time boots and some lightweight gaiters too. If snow is in the forecast the day before I start my travels, I'll bring my snow chains/spikes. No swimming suit this time, that's for sure .

I very nearly sent clothes home after starting on the Mozarabe a couple of weeks ago. First few days out of Almeria hot and dry. Bag a little too heavy so I thought to send my poncho, trouser/shorts and a long sleeve t-shirt home. Luckily for me, the post office didn't open until the afternoon. A week later I had sun, rain, hail, wind and snow all in the same day; fate had been on my side

 

[catheriam]

Leaving Coimbra to either train or bus to Pamplona on 08 April. One night in Pamplona, perhaps an emergency dash to Dacathlon; shake off the travel sitting. I have given up on Amazon.es living up to its erratic delivery times and bureaucratic nightmare of returning that which does not fit. Considering my Coimbra Decathlon my "REI". Forclaz backpack top of my list, Osprey having proven,despite several expensive efforts, to fit on my frame. Sad to "Google" that Hostel Hemingway is closed -- they had a senior room! As I (still) qualify, well darn, shall source something else. Brierley's book replete with sticker shock of all lodging prices. Bus/taxi/Uber to Roncesvalles for (1) night 10 April and begin CF again on 11 April. My fourth. I take Chaucer as my inspiration to start in April but never from SJPP, always Roncesvalles. In 2002, same conditions as predicted for 2024 and several pilgrims did perish attempting Route Napoleon; most wise of authorities to close it during heavy snow.

 

[lt56ny]

I'm beginning to watch the weather across the CF closely as I will be walking in April.

Everybody has good and bad stories about the weather, whether you are on the camino or not. It is March 8 today. If I were you I would start watching the weather about 3 or 4 days before you will start walking. Make adjustments then, no need to worry now. Also you will learn unless the weather is outright dangerous, which is rare and can often be attributed to Pilgrim stupidity, you are on the camino and in just about any weather it is the place you most want to be. You have walked before so no worries you will be fine.

 

[Vacajoe]

Do the Spanish Guardia Civil operate on the French side? Seems a good idea if they do.

Ummmmm, NOT a good idea especially if you know the history of Franco’s Civil Guard!!!! This would be a huge international incident if it ever occurred.

 

[Bradypus]

Ummmmm, NOT a good idea especially if you know the history of Franco’s Civil Guard!!!! This would be a huge international incident if it ever occurred.

Every year a number of French gendarmes and other foreign police officers take part in patrolling the Caminos. Largely a publicity exercise but also a goodwill gesture. I would be very surprised to find that relations between the two main police forces were anything other than cordial in the Roncesvalles/SJPDP area. The Guardia Civil today is very different from the institution under Franco and enjoys a remarkably high degree of public approval. And if my limited contact with them is typical then rightly so. Courteous, helpful and very professional.

 

[domigee]

Do the Spanish Guardia Civil operate on the French side? Seems a good idea if they do.

Actually, now you mention it, I think they were French... My mistake. (My friend also spoke to them and since she only speaks French, they mush have been French too lol)
But both sides work very closely together, they share the same goals.
My point was, it is very closely monitored when there is dangerous weather...
I had only before walked it in Summer and it was very different.

 

[domigee]

Ummmmm, NOT a good idea especially if you know the history of Franco’s Civil Guard!!!! This would be a huge international incident if it ever occurred.

No, not nowadays... Not likely

 

[Kathar1na]

Every year a number of French gendarmes and other foreign police officers take part in patrolling the Caminos.

Yes, foreign police agents are sometimes embedded in a Spanish police team working in a Camino context. But they have no jurisdiction and would not patrol on their own. I am relieved to read that it has now been established that the Guardia Civil agents on the route Napoleon were not Spanish Guardia Civil agents but French gendarmes - or whatever the correct name is these days.

 

[debigetsout]

I very nearly sent clothes home after starting on the Mozarabe a couple of weeks ago. First few days out of Almeria hot and dry. Bag a little too heavy so I thought to send my poncho, trouser/shorts and a long sleeve t-shirt home. Luckily for me, the post office didn't open until the afternoon. A week later I had sun, rain, hail, wind and snow all in the same day; fate had been on my side

We began the Mozarabe two weeks before Sue, and had mainly great weather, although we had a few days with high wind, rain, and hail that were very challenging. Our Mozarabe ended the day before torrential rains began again, which were predicted to be unrelenting for five days. We did not plan around weather. We just got lucky. So good luck!

 

[arfajajc]

Ok, so I'm wondering about my packing list again (!), considering the variability of possible weather conditions over the Pyrenees and beyond. I Start my very first Camino from SJPP on April 17. I'm travelling from NZ, so planning a short first day - booked at Borda. If forced to take the Valcarlos route due to bad weather does anyone know if Borda will provide a refund?
Also, will the following be adequate for clothing?
Long macabi skirt, Patagonia Happy Hike Pants, superlight (100g) pair of shorts, merino blend tshirt short sleeved, merino blend tshirt long sleeved, light merino blend hoody, superlight down puffy jacket, Arcteryx Goretex raincoat (Zeta SL), merino buff (neckwarmer, hat etc), lightweight gloves, 3 pairs wool Injinji socks, 3 merino undies, Altra Lone Peak trail shoes, Bedrock Cairn Pro sandals. Do I need lightweight gaitors? Do I need thermal tights? What have I missed?
Thanks for your help all you beautiful peregrinos and peregrinas!

 

[C clearly]

Do I need thermal tights? What have I missed?

I would take some tights or merino base layer - for sleeping and extra insulation if needed.

 

[trecile]

If forced to take the Valcarlos route due to bad weather does anyone know if Borda will provide a refund?

You should send them an email to ask. I have heard that Orisson will drive people down to the Valcarlos route if the weather turns bad. Perhaps Laurent at Borda does the same.

 

[arfajajc]

You should send them an email to ask. I have heard that Orisson will drive people down to the Valcarlos route if the weather turns bad. Perhaps Laurent at Borda does the same.

Getting a ride down to the Valcarlos route due to nasty weather would be AWESOME! In the event that weather looks like packing it in a day or so out, I'll message Laurent and see what he says. Thanks @trecile

 

[arfajajc]

I would take some tights or merino base layer - for sleeping and extra insulation if needed.

Thanks @C clearly !
I've had my merino tights in and out several times now lol...
I'll bring them and check the forecast once there. I can always send them ahead to Santiago de Compostela with my carry on suitcase and extras if not needed.