COVID Update from Santiago

[ivar]

 

[PMA]

Thank you for the update! I am flying to France tomorrow to start my first ever Camino from Saint-Jean-Pied-de-Port on this Wednesday. I find your updates and forum discussions really very helpful. I look forward to my walk

 

[SabsP]

Thank you for the update! I am flying to France tomorrow to start my first ever Camino from Saint-Jean-Pied-de-Port on this Wednesday. I find your updates and forum discussions really very helpful. I look forward to my walk

Hi! Welcome here! Buen Camino and stay safe.

 

[roamingpaddy]

Thank you Ivar for your update and good news re covid 19. I hope to be at OCebreio this friday to continue my camino and your news is good and encouraging.

 

[Anne&Pat]

Thank you very much Ivar for your weekly update. Good to see you and a bit of Santiago. Glad to hear the numbers are reducing and that you are safe and well.

 

[KJFSophie]

Thank you so much for the encouraging update and quick view of the square ( solemn, but lovely and sorely missed ) We are stuck in a crisis of ignorance in the US. There will be no travel for me for awhile. Will keep you, Ivar and all of Spain in my prayers...Stay well

 

[BROWNCOUNTYBOB]

My wife and I were to land in Madrid today, then start our 4th camino from St Jean on Friday. This is postponed until Sept 2021. Really enjoy the updates from Ivar to keep us informed and connected. Bob

 

[Sherpa47]

Thank you for your updates, always very informative.

 

[PMA]

Hi! Welcome here! Buen Camino and stay safe.

Thank you for the update! I am flying to France tomorrow to start my first ever Camino from Saint-Jean-Pied-de-Port on this Wednesday. I find your updates and forum discussions really very helpful. I look forward to my walk

 

[PMA]

Thank you all !

 

[PilgrimJames]

Always enjoy tour video updates Ivar. Thank you once again

 

[Maureen Anne]

Thank you for these updates..wishing you health and happiness...and greetings fromColorado....I love seeing Santiago again in your video....was there in 2017 and am supposed to be there now.....

 

[Mike Wells]

I love your weekly blogcasts from Santiago and I hate to dilute your optimism about declining coronavirus figures for Spain. However, what you are seeing is a major change in the way Spanish coronavirus data is collected and reported, not a decline in infections. Since the beginning of September, the daily figures only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in their pdf report. Initially this gives a number of daily cases approximately 50% of those reported by the previous system. In the new system the full number of daily cases take over a week to be validated. When this has been done, the figures for the previous week are adjusted upward. As a result, making a comparison of last week (using the unadjusted figure) with the previous week's data (which will by then have been adjusted) will always show an apparent decline. All this is described by the Johns Hopkins University daily report which reports and comments on coronavirus data from every world country. If you click on this and follow the link in the figures for Spain to source, the official Spanish figures appear together with a health warning about the data. The unfortunate position is that infections in Spain are now growing again rapidly, as they are in neighbouring France and now also in the UK.

The R number shows the rate of change in the number of weekly infections. If the data shows an apparent decline of 50% (which it does), the R number will be 0.5 (which it is). Sadly this does not reflect what is actually happening. The famous quote popularised by American author Mark Twain comes to mind....'There are three kinds of lie; lies, damn lies and statistics'.

 

[Mournes]

I love your weekly blogcasts from Santiago and I hate to dilute your optimism about declining coronavirus figures for Spain. However, what you are seeing is a major change in the way Spanish coronavirus data is collected and reported, not a decline in infections. Since the beginning of September, the daily figures only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in their pdf report. Initially this gives a number of daily cases approximately 50% of those reported by the previous system. In the new system the full number of daily cases take over a week to be validated. When this has been done, the figures for the previous week are adjusted upward. As a result, making a comparison of last week (using the unadjusted figure) with the previous week's data (which will by then have been adjusted) will always show an apparent decline. All this is described by the Johns Hopkins University daily report which reports and comments on coronavirus data from every world country. If you click on this and follow the link in the figures for Spain to source, the official Spanish figures appear together with a health warning about the data. The unfortunate position is that infections in Spain are now growing again rapidly, as they are in neighbouring France and now also in the UK.

The R number shows the rate of change in the number of weekly infections. If the data shows an apparent decline of 50% (which it does), the R number will be 0.5 (which it is). Sadly this does not reflect what is actually happening. The famous quote popularised by American author Mark Twain comes to mind....'There are three kinds of lie; lies, damn lies and statistics'.

Yes ,indeed Mike .The Mark Twain quote springs to mind also when thinking about the Covid 19 situation in the UK and the statistics therein.

 

[ivar]

Yes, it does look like it has taken a turn for the worst since Monday...

 

[Ellann]

Unfortunately we can't get out of Australia so the Camino waits, again.

 

[Lexicos]

Unfortunately it looks like it will be a long time before we can get out. A year never to be repeated or forgotten. Fingers crossed for a vaccine real soon.

 

[Laurie Bryan Larson]

Thanks, Ivar, for your update. Ultreya!!!