How many pilgrims are expected on the French Way in April 2024

[barbfox5759]

Hi,

I will be starting my 3rd Camino in several weeks and at a completely different time of year. I am wondering how many pilgrims are expected on this path in April, are there any estimates?

Buen Camino

 

[Bradypus]

Last year the SJPDP pilgrim office recorded 9604 departing from there in April. And the Santiago office recorded just over 20,000 who arrived on the Camino Frances during April. The bulk of the difference being people who began their Camino in Sarria.

 

[donalomahony]

Easter Sunday is the 31st March this year, so I imagine the first week in April will be busy with many Europeans taking advantage of the Easter Holidays to walk on the Camino Frances.

 

[DoughnutANZ]

Last year the SJPDP pilgrim office recorded 9604 departing from there in April. And the Santiago office recorded just over 20,000 who arrived on the Camino Frances during April. The bulk of the difference being people who began their Camino in Sarria.

Except that most of the people who started from St. Jean in April didn't finish in April.

For a slightly more accurate differential you might like to subtract the March departures from St. Jean from the April arrivals in Santiago.

 

[Anniesantiago]

A kazillion it seems!
It'll be an adventure, that's for sure!
Looking very much forward to it!

 

[Bradypus]

For a slightly more accurate differential you might like to subtract the March departures from St. Jean from the April arrivals in Santiago.

True. Just making the point that numbers on the way during April will be considerably larger at the western end of the CF than in the east. Largely due to people starting from Sarria. I thought that "the bulk" was suitably vague and non-specific while still conveying the right impression.

 

[DoughnutANZ]

Hi,

I will be starting my 3rd Camino in several weeks and at a completely different time of year. I am wondering how many pilgrims are expected on this path in April, are there any estimates?

Buen Camino

An interesting question. On the surface a relatively simple question but the dynamics of pilgrim movements and numbers at various geographic location at various times is actually much more complex than most people imagine.

Firstly, you have left out some crucial information that would help anyone answer your question, such as:

1 Which Camino are you referring to - I guess that we assume the Camino Frances.

2 Which geographic area of the Camino Frances are you asking about - the part of the Camino Frances from Sarria to Santiago, the part from Leon to Santiago, the part from St Jean to Santiago? They are all different. Even the part of the Camino Frances though the Meseta is different from the rest in significant numbers.

3 When during April? In 2023 Easter Sunday was on the 9th April and many pilgrims plan to enter Santiago on Easter Saturday, Sunday and Monday and so you get significant numbers on those days.

Other pilgrims use the Easter holidays to walk their Camino and so you see another smaller increase in numbers around 8 days after Easter Sunday.

This year Easter is earlier and so I would expect to see these waves of pilgrims ending in Santiago much earlier, in late March and early April.

I prefer visual information and so for me a couple of graphs helps to understand some of the complexities.

There is an excellent website https://solviturambulando.es/en/daily-pilgrim-arrivals/ run by Solvitur Ambulando that provides this data and I recommend it to you.

I have taken the liberty of taking two screenshots from this webpage to illustrate what I have said above.


Firstly, this graph shows in a more sophisticated way what @Bradypus suggested with his back of an envelope logic.

The graph to concentrate on is the bottom one.

At the top of this bottom graph you see a long blue line. That represents the number of pilgrims who started in Sarria and finished in Santiago during April.

Immediately below this very long line is a much shorter line representing the pilgrims who started in St. Jean and finished in Santiago during April.

There are additional, shorter lines below this representing some of the other popular starting points along the Camino Frances.

If life was simple then the number of pilgrims starting and finishing each day would be approximately constant but life isn't simple.

The second graph below shows how the daily numbers of pilgrims finishing changed through out April.



If you look at the red area of the graph then you can see how the numbers built up from a relatively low level towards Easter Sunday, dropped down a bit and then increased again until the 15th April, dropped right off to zero on one day and then built up again towards the end of the month.

If you are planning to walk from Sarria then these numbers and these graphs will assist in answering your question but if you are planning on starting in St. Jean or even somewhere inbetween St. Jean and Sarria then these numbers are almost irrelevant because we don't have a clear picture of numbers from last year.

About the best information that we can get for the St. Jean area of the Camino Frances is that numbers of pilgrims starting from here have historically tended to build quite quickly from very low numbers over Winter to a peak in mid May, drop down relatively quickly through June and July and then start building again in August for another peak in September then drop off rapidly.

This means that early April numbers are historically much less than late April numbers in this area.

However, last year the mid May peak moved forward around two weeks and occured at the beginning of May. We don't know if this will be repeated this year.

Finally, while we might suspect that 2023 numbers of pilgrims would give us some idea of how many people will chose to walk this year, in fact we actually have no idea how many people will walk this year, where they will start from and when they will start.

 

[Bradypus]

Finally, while we might suspect that 2023 numbers of pilgrims would give us some idea of how many people will chose to walk this year, in fact we actually have no idea how many people will walk this year, where they will start from and when they will start.

The Santiago pilgrim office running total for the year so far is about 7% up on the same period last year. But with the very small numbers walking in January and February that could change very quickly as pilgrim numbers pick up around Easter.

 

[DoughnutANZ]

The Santiago pilgrim office running total for the year so far is about 7% up on the same period last year. But with the very small numbers walking in January and February that could change very quickly as pilgrim numbers pick up around Easter.

This information is undoubtedly correct but unfortunately masks some very important information if you happen to be a pilgrim who is starting from St. Jean.

When we look at numbers of pilgrims starting from St. Jean we can see that despite those people who post statements about how crowded the Caminos are and emphasise how much numbers have increased, the numbers of pilgrims starting from St. Jean is still less than the peak years of 2017-2019. In fact, on the Meseta there are anecdotal reports that there are sometimes too few pilgrims to support the current accommodation infrastructure.

Here are the full year figures for pilgrims starting from St. Jean as reported by the Pilgrims Office in Santiago de Compostela and as summarised by https://solviturambulando.es/en/el-...santiago-stats/#Monthly_statistics_since_2003

Year - Full year pilgrim numbers
2023 - 31,670
2022 - 28,023
2019 - 33,193
2018 - 32,899
2017 - 33,177

In addition, if we look at the January and February 2024 and compare those two months with the same prior years from St. Jean then again we see that there is no increase on the prior peak years and that there is, rather, a largish decrease. Of course, 2023 numbers were larger than 2022 but that was a hangover from Covid 19 and for the same reason I haven't bothered including numbers for 2020 and 2021.

Year - Total pilgrim numbers for January and February
2024 - 321
2023 - 264
2022 - 171
2019 - 363
2018 - 381
2017 - 416


What we are seeing is a huge increase in numbers of pilgrims who walk the shorter routes such as from Sarria, the Portuguese, from Tui, the Ingles and other short routes. This means that, typically, pilgrims walking longer routes are no more crowded than they were during 2017-2019 UNTIL they get close to Santiago de Compostela.

There are, of course, times when lots of pilgrims are leaving from St. Jean and that these crests of waves can overwhelm accommodation resources very close to St. Jean but these periods of peak waves are typically two weeks in May and two weeks in September. Outside of these periods and away from St. Jean typically the only accommodation that gets crowded is accommodation that provides private rooms for people who like to reserve ahead of time.

It is worth repeating that last year the traditional May peak that is usually around the 15th of May moved forward around two weeks and occured around the 1st of May. There are a number of theories about why this moved forward but no proofs as yet and so no one knows what will happen this year in May and April from St. Jean.

The takeaway, if you are a pilgrim thinking about or who has already planned to start from St. Jean, is don't get confused about all the predictions about increased numbers because it is unlikely to apply to you until you get to Sarria and beyond.

 

[barbfox5759]

An interesting question. On the surface a relatively simple question but the dynamics of pilgrim movements and numbers at various geographic location at various times is actually much more complex than most people imagine.

Firstly, you have left out some crucial information that would help anyone answer your question, such as:

1 Which Camino are you referring to - I guess that we assume the Camino Frances.

2 Which geographic area of the Camino Frances are you asking about - the part of the Camino Frances from Sarria to Santiago, the part from Leon to Santiago, the part from St Jean to Santiago? They are all different. Even the part of the Camino Frances though the Meseta is different from the rest in significant numbers.

3 When during April? In 2023 Easter Sunday was on the 9th April and many pilgrims plan to enter Santiago on Easter Saturday, Sunday and Monday and so you get significant numbers on those days.

Other pilgrims use the Easter holidays to walk their Camino and so you see another smaller increase in numbers around 8 days after Easter Sunday.

This year Easter is earlier and so I would expect to see these waves of pilgrims ending in Santiago much earlier, in late March and early April.

I prefer visual information and so for me a couple of graphs helps to understand some of the complexities.

There is an excellent website https://solviturambulando.es/en/daily-pilgrim-arrivals/ run by Solvitur Ambulando that provides this data and I recommend it to you.

I have taken the liberty of taking two screenshots from this webpage to illustrate what I have said above.

View attachment 165659
Firstly, this graph shows in a more sophisticated way what @Bradypus suggested with his back of an envelope logic.

The graph to concentrate on is the bottom one.

At the top of this bottom graph you see a long blue line. That represents the number of pilgrims who started in Sarria and finished in Santiago during April.

Immediately below this very long line is a much shorter line representing the pilgrims who started in St. Jean and finished in Santiago during April.

There are additional, shorter lines below this representing some of the other popular starting points along the Camino Frances.

If life was simple then the number of pilgrims starting and finishing each day would be approximately constant but life isn't simple.

The second graph below shows how the daily numbers of pilgrims finishing changed through out April.

View attachment 165660

If you look at the red area of the graph then you can see how the numbers built up from a relatively low level towards Easter Sunday, dropped down a bit and then increased again until the 15th April, dropped right off to zero on one day and then built up again towards the end of the month.

If you are planning to walk from Sarria then these numbers and these graphs will assist in answering your question but if you are planning on starting in St. Jean or even somewhere inbetween St. Jean and Sarria then these numbers are almost irrelevant because we don't have a clear picture of numbers from last year.

About the best information that we can get for the St. Jean area of the Camino Frances is that numbers of pilgrims starting from here have historically tended to build quite quickly from very low numbers over Winter to a peak in mid May, drop down relatively quickly through June and July and then start building again in August for another peak in September then drop off rapidly.

This means that early April numbers are historically much less than late April numbers in this area.

However, last year the mid May peak moved forward around two weeks and occured at the beginning of May. We don't know if this will be repeated this year.

Finally, while we might suspect that 2023 numbers of pilgrims would give us some idea of how many people will chose to walk this year, in fact we actually have no idea how many people will walk this year, where they will start from and when they will start.

Hi, thanks for all of that information! You are definitely correct, my information was very vague. I will be starting in St Jean March 27th, headed for Santiago. I guess the answer is that it is difficult to predict what will happen and I will go and enjoy my pilgrimage, once more. Everything will work out the way it is supposed to. Again, thanks for all of the information.

 

[Bradypus]

I will be starting in St Jean March 27th, headed for Santiago.

In that case you should expect the first few days to be busy. Easter is on 31 March this year and Holy Week is a very popular time to walk the Caminos. In your position I would probably make reservations as far as Pamplona.

 

[barbfox5759]

In that case you should expect the first few days to be busy. Easter is on 31 March this year and Holy Week is a very popular time to walk the Caminos. In your position I would probably make reservations as far as Pamplona.

That was my thought too! Thanks so much!

 

[JavierLeon]

An interesting question. On the surface a relatively simple question but the dynamics of pilgrim movements and numbers at various geographic location at various times is actually much more complex than most people imagine.

Firstly, you have left out some crucial information that would help anyone answer your question, such as:

1 Which Camino are you referring to - I guess that we assume the Camino Frances.

2 Which geographic area of the Camino Frances are you asking about - the part of the Camino Frances from Sarria to Santiago, the part from Leon to Santiago, the part from St Jean to Santiago? They are all different. Even the part of the Camino Frances though the Meseta is different from the rest in significant numbers.

3 When during April? In 2023 Easter Sunday was on the 9th April and many pilgrims plan to enter Santiago on Easter Saturday, Sunday and Monday and so you get significant numbers on those days.

Other pilgrims use the Easter holidays to walk their Camino and so you see another smaller increase in numbers around 8 days after Easter Sunday.

This year Easter is earlier and so I would expect to see these waves of pilgrims ending in Santiago much earlier, in late March and early April.

I prefer visual information and so for me a couple of graphs helps to understand some of the complexities.

There is an excellent website https://solviturambulando.es/en/daily-pilgrim-arrivals/ run by Solvitur Ambulando that provides this data and I recommend it to you.

I have taken the liberty of taking two screenshots from this webpage to illustrate what I have said above.

View attachment 165659
Firstly, this graph shows in a more sophisticated way what @Bradypus suggested with his back of an envelope logic.

The graph to concentrate on is the bottom one.

At the top of this bottom graph you see a long blue line. That represents the number of pilgrims who started in Sarria and finished in Santiago during April.

Immediately below this very long line is a much shorter line representing the pilgrims who started in St. Jean and finished in Santiago during April.

There are additional, shorter lines below this representing some of the other popular starting points along the Camino Frances.

If life was simple then the number of pilgrims starting and finishing each day would be approximately constant but life isn't simple.

The second graph below shows how the daily numbers of pilgrims finishing changed through out April.

View attachment 165660

If you look at the red area of the graph then you can see how the numbers built up from a relatively low level towards Easter Sunday, dropped down a bit and then increased again until the 15th April, dropped right off to zero on one day and then built up again towards the end of the month.

If you are planning to walk from Sarria then these numbers and these graphs will assist in answering your question but if you are planning on starting in St. Jean or even somewhere inbetween St. Jean and Sarria then these numbers are almost irrelevant because we don't have a clear picture of numbers from last year.

About the best information that we can get for the St. Jean area of the Camino Frances is that numbers of pilgrims starting from here have historically tended to build quite quickly from very low numbers over Winter to a peak in mid May, drop down relatively quickly through June and July and then start building again in August for another peak in September then drop off rapidly.

This means that early April numbers are historically much less than late April numbers in this area.

However, last year the mid May peak moved forward around two weeks and occured at the beginning of May. We don't know if this will be repeated this year.

Finally, while we might suspect that 2023 numbers of pilgrims would give us some idea of how many people will chose to walk this year, in fact we actually have no idea how many people will walk this year, where they will start from and when they will start.

Wow… nice analysis!

 

[diegoromerosm]

This information is undoubtedly correct but unfortunately masks some very important information if you happen to be a pilgrim who is starting from St. Jean.

When we look at numbers of pilgrims starting from St. Jean we can see that despite those people who post statements about how crowded the Caminos are and emphasise how much numbers have increased, the numbers of pilgrims starting from St. Jean is still less than the peak years of 2017-2019. In fact, on the Meseta there are anecdotal reports that there are sometimes too few pilgrims to support the current accommodation infrastructure.

Here are the full year figures for pilgrims starting from St. Jean as reported by the Pilgrims Office in Santiago de Compostela and as summarised by https://solviturambulando.es/en/el-...santiago-stats/#Monthly_statistics_since_2003

Year - Full year pilgrim numbers
2023 - 31,670
2022 - 28,023
2019 - 33,193
2018 - 32,899
2017 - 33,177

In addition, if we look at the January and February 2024 and compare those two months with the same prior years from St. Jean then again we see that there is no increase on the prior peak years and that there is, rather, a largish decrease. Of course, 2023 numbers were larger than 2022 but that was a hangover from Covid 19 and for the same reason I haven't bothered including numbers for 2020 and 2021.

Year - Total pilgrim numbers for January and February
2024 - 321
2023 - 264
2022 - 171
2019 - 363
2018 - 381
2017 - 416


What we are seeing is a huge increase in numbers of pilgrims who walk the shorter routes such as from Sarria, the Portuguese, from Tui, the Ingles and other short routes. This means that, typically, pilgrims walking longer routes are no more crowded than they were during 2017-2019 UNTIL they get close to Santiago de Compostela.

There are, of course, times when lots of pilgrims are leaving from St. Jean and that these crests of waves can overwhelm accommodation resources very close to St. Jean but these periods of peak waves are typically two weeks in May and two weeks in September. Outside of these periods and away from St. Jean typically the only accommodation that gets crowded is accommodation that provides private rooms for people who like to reserve ahead of time.

It is worth repeating that last year the traditional May peak that is usually around the 15th of May moved forward around two weeks and occured around the 1st of May. There are a number of theories about why this moved forward but no proofs as yet and so no one knows what will happen this year in May and April from St. Jean.

The takeaway, if you are a pilgrim thinking about or who has already planned to start from St. Jean, is don't get confused about all the predictions about increased numbers because it is unlikely to apply to you until you get to Sarria and beyond.

Hi @DoughnutANZ, any help here? ;-) nice analysis!!

 

[diegoromerosm]

Wow… nice analysis!

Hi Javier… new toy
Buen Camino!

 

[JavierLeon]

Working on this API to start making predictions based on historical data and trends… let see the results.