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My (somewhat vague) predictions for when Spain will open again

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Past OR future Camino
“It’s your road, and yours alone. Others may walk it with you, but no one can walk it for you.” Rumi
Thank you for your video, Ivar!
I hope the best for the Spanish people, wonderful if the vaccine plan is working.
Maybe we are a step closer to a vaccine passport, there is a lot of talk about it in Denmark.
 
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mlhhome

Really new member
Past OR future Camino
Various (‘12, ‘13, ‘15, ‘16, ‘18 & ‘19)
Thank you Ivar. Your hope inspires us; your concern guides us and your resolve will keep us home until we can safely return and be welcomed in every village and city. As much I want to rush back to Spain, your videos dampen my adolescent urges to go rogue. We’ll see you when the timing is right!
 
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JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Past OR future Camino
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
I think that too many people are overly unaware of the seasonality of this and other respiratory diseases.

So that there are (sadly) liable to be SARS outbreaks for several years during the respiratory diseases seasons (Winter/early Spring in Western Europe), and then remissions in the warmer later Spring/Summer/early-to-mid Autumn weather. (depending in Europe significantly on latitude)

So that Camino-wise & IMO for the mid-term future, warmer weather Caminos should be considered rather than colder weather ones -- though it's still too hard to see what the overall consequences of the vaccination programmes will be, nor the degree to which natural and artificially triggered herd immunity will mitigate those future Winter outbreaks, nor how many years it will take for these mitigations to be sufficiently significant.

So I'd say to pilgrims under durable travel restrictions from their home countries or from EU restrictions, and also hoping to avoid risks from the virus itself, maybe aim for late Spring 2022 ?

Blessedly, still in the Holy "Year" !! :cool:
 

Marbe2

Active member
Past OR future Camino
2015-2019 walked all or more than half of CF 7 times... CP recently cancelled by Covid 19!
I think that too many people are overly unaware of the seasonality of this and other respiratory diseases.

So that there are (sadly) liable to be SARS outbreaks for several years during the respiratory diseases seasons (Winter/early Spring in Western Europe), and then remissions in the warmer later Spring/Summer/early-to-mid Autumn weather. (depending in Europe significantly on latitude)

So that Camino-wise & IMO for the mid-term future, warmer weather Caminos should be considered rather than colder weather ones -- though it's still too hard to see what the overall consequences of the vaccination programmes will be, nor the degree to which natural and artificially triggered herd immunity will mitigate those future Winter outbreaks, nor how many years it will take for these mitigations to be sufficiently significant.

So I'd say to pilgrims under durable travel restrictions from their home countries or from EU restrictions, and also hoping to avoid risks from the virus itself, maybe aim for late Spring 2022 ?

Blessedly, still in the Holy "Year" !! :cool:
This Winter the Flu was very low in USA because of mask wearing...
I am a mask convert for life. I will continue to wear masks in doors when I walk cool weather Caminos. If everyone would wear a mask, and wear them correcting,and socially distance, we would be able to return to normal a lot sooner.
 
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trecile

Camino Addict
Past OR future Camino
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
Some viruses are seasonal by their nature - they circulate more in winter and die down in warmer months, while other viruses seem seasonal, but it's mostly because they transmit easier when people are spending more time together indoors. I'm not sure if it's known what Covid's behavior as far as seasonality is.
Colds seem seasonal because people tend to get them more often in the winter when they are in enclosed spaces more, but I know that I've had my share of summer colds! I got one on the Camino in June one year.
 
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Marbe2

Active member
Past OR future Camino
2015-2019 walked all or more than half of CF 7 times... CP recently cancelled by Covid 19!
Some viruses are seasonal by their nature - they circulate more in winter and die down in warmer months, while other viruses seem seasonal, but it's mostly because they transmit easier when people are spending more time together indoors. I'm not sure if it's known what Covid's behavior as far as seasonality is.
Colds seem seasonal because people tend to get them more often in the winter when they are in enclosed spaces more, but I know that I've had my share of summer colds! I got one on the Camino in June one year.
As I recall texas got hit pretty hard last summer? Who knows?
 

Tommy Brown

New Member
Past OR future Camino
French,Portuguese and via de last Plata. Future,primitive norte
As I recall texas got hit pretty hard last summer? Who knows?
But now we have the vaccine it will stop most of the vulnerable getting it or making them seriously ill?also this should stop any second/third wave in the autumn
 

Jayce

New Member
Past OR future Camino
Francés 2016
Portugues 2018
Ingles 2020
Thanks Ivar, I have tickets and reservations for Sept. and continue to Hope...with alternatve plans for Oct or Nov....determined when it is safe for us...
Love the sight of a lovely day in SdC..stay well!
Thank you for the update. My best to you from the USA
 
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Peaceable Projects Inc. is a U.S.-based non-profit group that brings the vast resources of the wide world together with the ongoing needs of the people who live, work, and travel on the Camino de Santiago pilgrim trail network in Spain.

mikebet

Active Member
Past OR future Camino
SJPdP to Pamplona (2016); Baiona to Santiago (2018); Sarria to Santiago (2018)
Thanks for the update and guarded optimism. Wife and I were thinking along the same lines so after getting armed (pun intended) with the Pfizer jabs a couple of weeks ago we went ahead and made reservations for flights to MAD Oct 1st. Good fares right now with Iberia/American from SFO. We can only hope at this point, but at least the dream is out there to keep us motivated.
 
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Airfix

Member
Past OR future Camino
2021
Thanks Ivar, your updates and local information make us feel like we have one foot on the Camino already. We should be all jabbed up by June and plan for a September Camino. Thanks again.
 

ivar

Administrator
Staff member
any update now, 3 weeks later? what are the prospects of doing full Camino from France to Santiago de Compostella in May?
Difficult to say. Spain is still at about 12-13% vaccination rate (first dose). It needs to pick up by a lot for may to be a good time to walk I think.
 

trecile

Camino Addict
Past OR future Camino
Francés (2016 & 2017), Norte (2018), Francés-Salvador-Norte (2019), Portuguese (2019)
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Rent a house in Santiago (1 month minimum)
300m from the cathedral and around the corner from the fresh food market in Santiago. Perfect place to tele commute from (1GB symmetrical connection).

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Past OR future Camino
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
any update now, 3 weeks later? what are the prospects of doing full Camino from France to Santiago de Compostella in May?
If the State of Alarm is not extended, it will end on May 9th, and all regional lockdowns will cease.

There are extra restrictions currently in place over the Easter period, 'til April 9th, and it was rumoured that after that date, numerous Regions would ease their lockdown to lower levels than before Easter ; but as always, such decisions will be made at the last moment, so that nobody will have any good idea of what shape the reopening will take before next week.

Some Regions, such as Catalonia, are likely to keep heavier restrictions than others until May.

As to your question, depends what you mean by a "full Camino", though you should know that anyone entering Spain by land from France now also needs to have a negative PCR test result less than 72 hours old. And that there is a full regional lockdown in France 'til April 26th, making it very difficult for the vast majority of people to get to, for example, SJPP for Camino purposes. Unless they are disabled or have a diplomatic passport or something ; or they reside in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques within 30K of the Spanish border.

So as to a Camino in May, in more practical terms, wait until news starts coming out from Spain from next week onwards is all I can suggest. Basic numbers have started to drop a little in the South of France despite this third lockdown and various news reports, but it will take about two weeks before that starts translating into fewer hospitalisations and deaths. Just locally though, the numbers have halved over the past month.
 

Chef66

Active Member
Past OR future Camino
Now
If the State of Alarm is not extended, it will end on May 9th, and all regional lockdowns will cease.

There are extra restrictions currently in place over the Easter period, 'til April 9th, and it was rumoured that after that date, numerous Regions would ease their lockdown to lower levels than before Easter ; but as always, such decisions will be made at the last moment, so that nobody will have any good idea of what shape the reopening will take before next week.

Some Regions, such as Catalonia, are likely to keep heavier restrictions than others until May.

As to your question, depends what you mean by a "full Camino", though you should know that anyone entering Spain by land from France now also needs to have a negative PCR test result less than 72 hours old. And that there is a full regional lockdown in France 'til April 26th, making it very difficult for the vast majority of people to get to, for example, SJPP for Camino purposes. Unless they are disabled or have a diplomatic passport or something ; or they reside in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques within 30K of the Spanish border.

So as to a Camino in May, in more practical terms, wait until news starts coming out from Spain from next week onwards is all I can suggest. Basic numbers have started to drop a little in the South of France despite this third lockdown and various news reports, but it will take about two weeks before that starts translating into fewer hospitalisations and deaths. Just locally though, the numbers have halved over the past month.
Hi JabbaPapa. I have been meaning to post for a while to say thank you for your excellent updates in a couple of threads! Love the way you present it in layman’s terms! I am hoping to start a Camino in
Mid May!l I have a flight to Bilbao around that time, and whilst ‘it’s the hope that kills’ I feel there’s a chance. In fact I want to do 2 Caminos (VDLP and Norte), though Norte is priority and VDLP will need to avoid the heat of summer. I managed two last year (Frances and Portuguesa from Porto). Anyway thank you!
 

JabbaPapa

"True Pilgrim"
Past OR future Camino
100 characters or fewer : see signature details
Hi JabbaPapa. I have been meaning to post for a while to say thank you for your excellent updates in a couple of threads! Love the way you present it in layman’s terms! I am hoping to start a Camino in
Mid May!
Thanks !

And though there was a little Easter bump, numbers are right down again in Spain over the past couple of days, and remain very low in Portugal, so I remain hopeful myself about getting re-started on my own Camino in May.
 
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