In 2007, 27,140 pilgrims arrived in Santiago in August, and 8,112 arrived in April. If adjustment is made for the time it takes to walk the
Camino Frances, if you start in March you will compete for a bed with about 1/3 the number of pilgrims as you would when starting in July. You NEVER will be concerned with the "bed race." There is plenty of bed space for April starts, too. Problems can begin in late May.
About 80% of the pilgrims arrive using the French way. No one reports the number of pilgrims who walk, but do not get a
Compostela. About 1/4 of those receiving a
Compostela for the
Camino Frances have walked only about 100 km.
The numbers will be off-scale in 2010 (Jubilee year 2005 had 180,000
Compostela-receiving pilgrims compared to 75,000 in 2004 and 115,000 in 2007), but the real crowding will be in the last 100 km during the week before St. James birthday. I doubt that anyone will be surprised if 250,000
Compostela are issued in 2010. Santiago will be mobbed all during July.
The statistical conclusion (please, I am not TELLING you what to do!!!) is to avoid the
Camino in 2010 unless you walk very early in the year, or in the autumn. In other years, crowding begins in June, mostly toward the end, so start mid-May at the latest. March and September are excellent starting months to avoid crowds, but some
albergues do not open until April.