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October statistics

Camino(s) past & future
Finished: See post signature.
Upcoming: Nothing planned
#2

domigee

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
CF(x4), Fisterra/Muxía(x2), VdlP, Jerusalem, VF, Walsingham,
C inglés. 2019? Who knows! ;-)
#3
Strange there should at least be one starting in Almería coming in to Santiago in October but I don’t see Almería in the list. Only checked web.
I think Almería is included in ‘resto Andalucia’ ...
 

Marc S.

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2012-2018 Frances, Norte, Salvador, Aragones, Portuguese, Via Regia, Elisabethpfad, Jakibspaad.
#5
Interesting figures. One person apparently started walking in Finland. Some brave man / woman...
 

Thomas1962

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2010: Porto - SdC - Finisterra 2011: E4 on Crete 2012: Le Puy - SJPdP 2013: Camino Madrid -> Del Salvador -> Primitivo 2014: European Peace Walk. 2015: Amsterdam - SdC & Barcelona -Burgos. 2016:Norte & hospitalero
#7
Anyone know what the annual number is?
Total till november is 317.170. Last year this total till november was 290.797. Again an increase of about 10% (like it has been for the last 20 years. :)
 
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Camino(s) past & future
Will walk the camino francés in October 2018 and beginning of November
#8
Total till november is 317.170. Last year this total till november was 290.797. Again an increase of about 10% (like it has been for the last 20 years. :)
Not really good news, this Increase.
 
Camino(s) past & future
May, 2017; return, leaving SJPP May 24, 2018
#10
Women have a lead of 4,000 thru October. No way we men catch the ladies this year(maybe ever again). Long-term trend of more women and more seniors, continues. My impression is that the vast majority of cyclists is men, so women may have been a majority of walkers for a few years....
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#11
I am trying to extrapolate the growth rate through to the Next Holy Year in 2021. Using a 10 percent annual increase over the previous year, and assuming a 2018 year-end total of 330k, I come up to about 600k for 2021.

This includes the 54 percent increase experienced from 2002 - 2003 (the last Holy Year) (IIRC).

Taking 330k for 2018 and adding 10 percent in 2019 and 2020, we find ourselves at 399k. Adding the 54 percent previously seen, takes us over 600k.

Even conservatively, I assess that we are looking at 500,000 or more pilgrims during the coming next Holy Year... YIKES! That's about a 52 percent increase over the present projected annual volume, 330k.

Get ready...here they come...

I may choose to not walk a Camino during the Holy Year and apply those funds to double-up on volunteering... Lord knows they will need the help...
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances St Jean -Santiago April -June 2017
Portugues September 2018
#12
https://oficinadelperegrino.com/en/statistics/

Women outnumbered men. Of course, it was a record October. Every month this year set a record (with a slight adjustment for Easter).
Then of course there are those pilgrims that didn't collect their compostella in Santiago
We walked the Portugues in September (boy it was hot) and didn't feel like queuing for a couple of hours
So you can add at least 2 more to the years total! Roger
 
Camino(s) past & future
(2009): Camino Frances
(2011): Sevilla-Salamanca, VdlP
(2012): Salamanca-SdC, VdlP
(2014): SJpdP-Astorga
(2015): Astorga-SdC
(2016) May Pamplona-Moratinos; Sept.:Burgos-SdC
(2016): August/Sept: Camino San Olav (Burgos-Covarubbias), Burgos-Sarria
(2017): May: Portuguese; Sept: Pamplona-SdC
#13
Interesting figures. One person apparently started walking in Finland. Some brave man / woman...
Yes, in January, in deep snow. Finland, Norway, Sweden, and on down south. I talked with him. Nice person.

And yes, there are many more out there than the number of Compostelas issued. Count in those who walk parts of it, those who stop before Santiago, and not least those (incl. me) who do not need a Compostela. I have enough of them; I am sin free :). Those numbers must be quite high.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Camino Frances SJPP to SDC Sept 2012
Camino Frances Astorga to SDC Sept 2014
Camino Del Norte Irun to Santander Sept 2015
Caminho Portugese Barcelos to SDC Sept 2016
Camino Del Norte Santander to SDC (2017)
#14
I'd imagine it may reach a level eventually where a permit system will be necessary.Unless interest in it begins to dwindle. Which doesn't look likely at the moment. The people of the world are hungry for more than food and reality TV.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (1989 and 2016), Portugues - central from Porto (2018 - planned)
#15
I am trying to extrapolate the growth rate through to the Next Holy Year in 2021. Using a 10 percent annual increase over the previous year, and assuming a 2018 year-end total of 330k, I come up to about 600k for 2021.

This includes the 54 percent increase experienced from 2002 - 2003 (the last Holy Year) (IIRC).

Taking 330k for 2018 and adding 10 percent in 2019 and 2020, we find ourselves at 399k. Adding the 54 percent previously seen, takes us over 600k.

Even conservatively, I assess that we are looking at 500,000 or more pilgrims during the coming next Holy Year... YIKES! That's about a 52 percent increase over the present projected annual volume, 330k.

Get ready...here they come...

I may choose to not walk a Camino during the Holy Year and apply those funds to double-up on volunteering... Lord knows they will need the help...
Using these numbers, if one ignores extra pilgrims in holy years and does a straight 10% increase annually, for a nice conservative estimate, we exceed a million pilgrims a year by 2030 and ten million pilgrims a year by 2054
 
Camino(s) past & future
Various (‘12, ‘13, ‘15, ‘16, ‘18)
#16
Using these numbers, if one ignores extra pilgrims in holy years and does a straight 10% increase annually, for a nice conservative estimate, we exceed a million pilgrims a year by 2030 and ten million pilgrims a year by 2054
Jajaja.... with those numbers the pilgrims will need to walk at night and in every winter month.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF Sept/Oct 2013
CF April/May 2016
Norte (July/August 2019)
#18
I am trying to extrapolate the growth rate through to the Next Holy Year in 2021. Using a 10 percent annual increase over the previous year, and assuming a 2018 year-end total of 330k, I come up to about 600k for 2021.

This includes the 54 percent increase experienced from 2002 - 2003 (the last Holy Year) (IIRC).

Taking 330k for 2018 and adding 10 percent in 2019 and 2020, we find ourselves at 399k. Adding the 54 percent previously seen, takes us over 600k.

Even conservatively, I assess that we are looking at 500,000 or more pilgrims during the coming next Holy Year... YIKES! That's about a 52 percent increase over the present projected annual volume, 330k.

Get ready...here they come...

I may choose to not walk a Camino during the Holy Year and apply those funds to double-up on volunteering... Lord knows they will need the help...
Hi, I like your stats, well not really because of the increase. Scary.

However, I'd like to point out that the last Holy year was 2016, declared by the Pope. I was fortunate to walk that year and to step through the Holy doors at the Cathedral. God Bless and see you on the Way. del Norte 2019
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#19
Actually, 2016 was a one-off “Year of Mercy” proclaimed by Pope Francis. He chose to make the Jubilee Indulgence (a plenary indulgence) available to Catholics performing specific religious activities.

A Holy Year occurs ONLY when the Feast of Santiago falls on a Sunday. The last incidence of that occurrence was 2010. The next is 2021.

Hope this helps.
 
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Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#20
Using these numbers, if one ignores extra pilgrims in holy years and does a straight 10% increase annually, for a nice conservative estimate, we exceed a million pilgrims a year by 2030 and ten million pilgrims a year by 2054
It could happen. But consider that interest spikes abnormally during formal Holy Year. These occur when the Feast of Santiago (25 July) falls on a Sunday.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF Sept/Oct 2013
CF April/May 2016
Norte (July/August 2019)
#21
Actually, 2016 was a one-off “Year of iMercy” proclaimed by Pope Francis. He chose to make the Jubilee Indulgence (a plenary indulgence) available to Catholics performing specific religious activities.

A Holy Year occurs ONLY when the Feast of Santiago falls on a Sunday. The last incidence of that occurrence was 2010. The next is 2021.

Hope this helps.
2016 was a HOLY YEAR.

What is a Holy Year?
Holy years, or Jubilee years, only take place every 25 years, unless the Pope requests an extraordinary Holy Year to highlight a specific topic. In this case, Pope Francis has declared 2016 a Holy Year of Mercy.
In Santiago de Compostela, a year is considered holy or Jacobean if 25th July, Saint James Day, falls on a Sunday. The next Jacobean Holy Year will take place in 2021. On such years a special door to the cathedral: the Holy Door (Porta Santa) is opened to pilgrims arriving in Santiago.

The 2016 Holy Year of Mercy will be officially starting on 8th December 2015 and finishing on 20th November 2016.
 

falcon269

no commercial interests
Camino(s) past & future
yes
#22
Using these numbers, if one ignores extra pilgrims in holy years and does a straight 10% increase annually, for a nice conservative estimate, we exceed a million pilgrims a year by 2030 and ten million pilgrims a year by 2054
In 1798 Malthus made population growth predictions based on the world population doubling every 25 years. With his math, the 1 billion would population would have grown to about 2.56 trillion by the year 2000. The actual growth in those 200 years was only to about 6 billion.

Mathematics is an exact science, so the flaw is not in the numbers, but the underlying assumptions! Since facilities on the Camino Frances were overwhelmed in 2010, and the last Holy Year numbers are now exceeded yearly, I think it is safe to predict that they will be overwhelmed again in 2021. I would suggest that after that year, the word will spread about the crowding, and growth will stop. Whether it will actually shrink is much harder to predict. From comments in this Forum, there are a lot of repeat pilgrims these days. They may stop going, secure in the thought that their pleasurable experience will not be repeated. ;)

Or not...
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#23
2016 was a HOLY YEAR.

What is a Holy Year?
Holy years, or Jubilee years, only take place every 25 years, unless the Pope requests an extraordinary Holy Year to highlight a specific topic. In this case, Pope Francis has declared 2016 a Holy Year of Mercy.
In Santiago de Compostela, a year is considered holy or Jacobean if 25th July, Saint James Day, falls on a Sunday. The next Jacobean Holy Year will take place in 2021. On such years a special door to the cathedral: the Holy Door (Porta Santa) is opened to pilgrims arriving in Santiago.

The 2016 Holy Year of Mercy will be officially starting on 8th December 2015 and finishing on 20th November 2016.
I say "potato," you say "potatoe..." Nonetheless, the definition of a formal Holy Year is when Santiago's feast day (25 July) falls on a Sunday. That much is immutable.

This said, the Pope, in his wisdom and authority, can proclaim any day, anything he wishes. He INTENDED the out of date sequence holy year 2016 to be as spiritually "effective" as a formal Holy Year. That is why he chose to extend the 'benefits' of the formal Holy Year to 2016.

Apropos of this, the Pope also proclaimed the Jubilee indulgence during the designated one-year period marked the 500th anniversary of the San Roque church, on Boulevard San Roque. For more information, read this.

http://www.sanroque500.es/indulgencias-y-gracias-jubilares/

This period of special indulgence lasted from 16 August 2017, through 16 August 2018.

If you use the Chrome browser, it will translate on the fly for you.

Basically, it says what I indicated above. I know because I was there during this period, working at the Pilgrim Office. I had to be able to answer questions from people who incorrectly inked this one-off observance to the customary activities in the Cathedral.

I hope this helps.
 

alhartman

Active Member
Camino(s) past & future
2005 2007 Frances
2016 Leon to Santiago
#25
Linear extrapolation of growth is mathematically a bit dangerous (like Malthus). Much of long term growth is better described as an s-shaped growth curve-- as the forecast reaches some physical limit, such as carrying capacity. And sometimes the carrying capacity becomes controlled by political bodies--like rafting permits on some Oregon Rivers and many hunting licenses to control wildlife management.
But a system left to supply/demand will grow until there is an incentive to overbuild the supply (beds) and then collapse. My first Camino was in 2005 and there was enough of a bed race that I spent 3 nights on the floor. No purpose built albergues (like Ferramenteiro 2006??) then. Monte deGozo (1993??) did exist tho. But the economics of a seasonal business will be a disincentive for overbuilding beds. ie--Frances likely to just keep getting more crowded. Already a huge incentive to walk the shoulder seasons.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF Sept/Oct 2013
CF April/May 2016
Norte (July/August 2019)
#26
I say "potato," you say "potatoe..." Nonetheless, the definition of a formal Holy Year is when Santiago's feast day (25 July) falls on a Sunday. That much is immutable.

This said, the Pope, in his wisdom and authority, can proclaim any day, anything he wishes. He INTENDED the out of date sequence holy year 2016 to be as spiritually "effective" as a formal Holy Year. That is why he chose to extend the 'benefits' of the formal Holy Year to 2016.

Apropos of this, the Pope also proclaimed the Jubilee indulgence during the designated one-year period marked the 500th anniversary of the San Roque church, on Boulevard San Roque. For more information, read this.

http://www.sanroque500.es/indulgencias-y-gracias-jubilares/

This period of special indulgence lasted from 16 August 2017, through 16 August 2018.

If you use the Chrome browser, it will translate on the fly for you.

Basically, it says what I indicated above. I know because I was there during this period, working at the Pilgrim Office. I had to be able to answer questions from people who incorrectly inked this one-off observance to the customary activities in the Cathedral.

I hope this helps.
I have always known the definition of a Holy Year but you give too much information here. It’s not a class room. I like the way I see it, I’m not wrong in that. It makes my 2016 Camino that more special to me as I’m sure it does to others. Besides do you always have to be right and have the final say? Sheesh Oh and no need to use CAPS on certain words. It makes me feel less then. What’s the definition of: Humble
 
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Camino(s) past & future
2035 km of the way to Saint James in Galicia done.
#27
In the context of numbers of pilgrims in Santiago de Compostela, "Holy Year" is simply short for "Jacobean Holy Year". In the past, these years had an impact on the number of pilgrims in SdC; they added about 100,000-120,000 pilgrims as you can see from the diagram below. The year 2016 did not have such an impact.

It is expected that the next Jacobean Holy Year in 2021 will have a significant impact on the numbers of pilgrims again.

 

falcon269

no commercial interests
Camino(s) past & future
yes
#28
the Pope, in his wisdom and authority, can proclaim any day, anything he wishes. He INTENDED the out of date sequence holy year 2016 to be as spiritually "effective" as a formal Holy Year.
I got a Holy Year stamp in Venice in 2016 as part of the Pope's jubilee, and was admitted through its holy door! The Holy Year applied to all churches and cathedrals.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (1989 and 2016), Portugues - central from Porto (2018 - planned)
#29
I say "potato," you say "potatoe..." Nonetheless, the definition of a formal Holy Year is when Santiago's feast day (25 July) falls on a Sunday. That much is immutable.
The definition you provide would be the definition of a Jacobean Holy Year, which is only one kind of Holy Year. All of the other kinds of Holy Year are just as formal and meet the official definition of a "Holy Year" just as well. You may disagree, but I believe the Vatican is the authoritative source on the definition of a Holy Year (and the definition I looked up was from well before 2016, so it wasn't based on a whim of the current Pope).
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#32
It occurred to me, after reading everything about increased traffic trends, and reflecting on the basic laws of supply and demand, that there might be a built-in "safety valve" to attenuate the ultimate volumes...on at least some Camino routes.

I have previously mentioned the concept of "peak pilgrim." This is defined (by me at least) as the point at which a Camino route no longer has the space to accommodate the pilgrim's desiring to use it. To my way of thinking this simply means that, on a given night, there are inadequate defined sleeping places for the number of pilgrims desiring to sleeping there.

IMHO, for the 'peak point' to have been reached, this must occur on a sustained basis, over time, and at multiple locations that are consecutive on a Camino route. For example, on (date) or from (date to (date) every available bed was occupied for a week straight on the (name) camino, from (place) to (place).

Then we would say the "peak pilgrim" condition was reached on that segment for that period of time. As we approach 2021, this state will be found more and more often at more and more places.

I conspicuously do not include how crowded the actual paths, sendas, and routes might be. Conceptually, these could appear to be a refugee stream plodding along more or less as a single "blob" at a walking pace and, yet have enough space to accommodate all the pilgrims. Personally, and I think, like many of you, I would not want to walk a Camino in such crowded conditions. One does wonder if the pilgrim flow ever reached these proportions in the 1100s?

The built-in safety valve I mentioned is that other pilgrims seeing what is happening, will likely self-select alternative routes. They will do this to avoid the "final funnel," or choke point from Sarria to Santiago. I believe that they are starting to do this already. As we approach 2021, more will do so, at least IMHO.

I only include this final segment as it is so apparently the most preferred approach to Santiago. Several Caminos flow into this segment. The commercial tour business flavors this segment for selling "a taste of the Camino." Universities favor this stretch for their student groups. Folks with limited time or physical abilities also choose this route. The terrain is relatively easy to navigate. Trail / route marking is excellent and support facilities are omnipresent.

The reasons are simple: the distance is officially sanctioned to be eligible for a Compostela; there are adequate albergues, hostals, hotels, etc.; also, train and bus service to Sarria is convenient and not seasonal. In short, everything one needs to make a Camino pilgrimage is there.

On the Portuguese route, this is also true from Valenca / Tui. This summer while working at the Pilgrim Office, I noticed an definite uptick in the numbers of Spanish pilgrims starting in Tui. This MAY be the safety-valve beginning to work.

For those of us interested in approaching Santiago, while avoiding these two final funnels or choke points, there are still several alternatives. One can come in from the Ingles, Norte, De la Plata, Invierno, and a couple other routes, while avoiding the Sarria and Tui segments.

If anyone knows of 'short cuts' or 'corner cuts' to avoid the most crowded segments leading into Santiago, on any route, that do not violate the 100 km required minimum distance during the final 100 km, please share them.

Hope this helps.



Hope this helps.
 
Camino(s) past & future
Frances (2015); Ch. d'Arles: Oloron Ste Marie to Aragones; Frances (2016); V.d.l.P.; Sanabres (2017)
#34
For those of us interested in approaching Santiago, while avoiding these two final funnels or choke points, there are still several alternatives. One can come in from the Ingles, Norte, De la Plata, Invierno, and a couple other routes, while avoiding the Sarria and Tui segments.
Just a little reminder that the Via de la Plata ends in Astorga, so you will not avoid Sarria and after by walking that route. However, the Camino Sanabres, which is an alternate route available to VdlP walkers from Granja de Moreruela, arrives in Santiago from the west, without any time spent on the Frances.
 
Camino(s) past & future
CF Sept/Oct 2013
CF April/May 2016
Norte (July/August 2019)
#36
In the context of numbers of pilgrims in Santiago de Compostela, "Holy Year" is simply short for "Jacobean Holy Year". In the past, these years had an impact on the number of pilgrims in SdC; they added about 100,000-120,000 pilgrims as you can see from the diagram below. The year 2016 did not have such an impact.

It is expected that the next Jacobean Holy Year in 2021 will have a significant impact on the numbers of pilgrims again.

Thanks for the stats. Wow, it doesn't look like it has to be a Holy Year to bring the stats up, now does it? I understand 2016 may not have had the same impact as a "Jacobean Holy Year" but it was still a Holy Year nonetheless and crowded. The Pope didn't declare 2016 a Holy Year until mid or late 2015 so not a lot of pilgrims had the chance to plan for the pilgrimage. Fortunately for me, I had been planning before the Pope's announcement and was so thrilled and felt so blessed to know I would be walking through the Holy Door at the Cathedral during the special Holy Year of 2016. :) God's Blessings
 
Camino(s) past & future
2035 km of the way to Saint James in Galicia done.
#37
I understand 2016 may not have had the same impact as a "Jacobean Holy Year" but it was still a Holy Year nonetheless and crowded. The Pope didn't declare 2016 a Holy Year until mid or late 2015
The Pope's declaration happened in April 2015. You may be surprised to read that immediately afterwards, the Cabildo of the Cathedral of Santiago de Compostela decided during their regular session "to study carefully if they would open their Holy Door in 2016" or nominate a different cathedral door as a holy door for the Year of Mercy 2016. Which if of course what other cathedrals worldwide did that don't have a tradition of closing and opening holy doors. It took the Cabildo several months before they had reached a decision and declared publicly that they would indeed open it although I think the ceremony of opening it was toned down compared to their Jacobean Holy Years. Just to illustrate that, in Santiago at least, they do distinguish between these various holy years. ;)
 
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KinkyOne

Veteran Member
Camino(s) past & future
I'am not perfect, but I'm always myself!!!
#38
...
If anyone knows of 'short cuts' or 'corner cuts' to avoid the most crowded segments leading into Santiago, on any route, that do not violate the 100 km required minimum distance during the final 100 km, please share them.
Fisterra-Muxia-Santiago (or Muxia-Fisterra-...) comes to mind.

Norte also connects with Frances although much later than Sarria or Melide (old/original (?) Primitivo). Same as Invierno runs into Sanabres (Portugues Interior and VdlP Portugues too). But I'm sure we know what you mean. These are just technicalities :)
 
Camino(s) past & future
C/F: 2013, 2014
C/M: 2016
C/P: 2015, 2017
C/I: 2018
Voluntario: 2014 to 2018
#39
Eureka! I found it...with the help of friends. There is a formal 'bridge route' connecting the Primitivo to the Norte, from Lugo to Sobrado. Here is the link to the relevant Forum thread...

https://www.caminodesantiago.me/com...ng-from-primitivo-to-norte-yes-you-can.42599/

The path markings from the bridge coming out of Lugo, to Sobrado, are GREEN ARROWS.
Other than that, it appears fairly straightforward.

Following this route avoids the Frances completely until Lavacolla, the final day's walking. If you did not take this connector route, you would join the Frances and the conga line at Melide, and join in the mob for four days.

Hmmm, one wonders if we ought not start a separate resource thread for detours or bridge routes that specifically avoid sharing other Camino routes with the Camino Frances? In coming years it might become very valuable...just sayin...

Hope this helps,
 
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