Oh, they are coming all right. Johnnie Walker reports on the stats from the Pilgrim Office so he has the official numbers. However, several months ago, I saw estimates on the forum of 230,000 pilgrims for calendar 2014. I wonder where we are just now?
Clearly, if the annual volume does hit that level and beyond, the carrying capacity of the Camino, especially the Frances, will be reached, and at some times of the year exceeded. Even though the volume is spread across the months in a near-bell curve distribution, the current anecdotal stories about bed races and "completo" signs at 13:00 will likely become established facts.
Just in my limited experience of doing two
Camino Frances in consecutive years at the same time (May 2013 and May 2014), I had a significantly more difficult time finding affordable, non-albergue accommodation in 2014 than I did in 2013. To this end, I could see clear evidence of two types of groups becoming more pervasive along the
Camino Frances.
The first group is comprised of organized tour groups with pre-arranged lodging reservations and mochila transport. I am not offering any criticism of this manner of doing the Camino, I merely point it out as it represents a factor in the higher overall pilgrim numbers. Commercialism will creep in. That is the way of the world.
The second group are university students walking some or all of the Camino as part of their university studies and their adult / teacher chaperones / guides. Many, but not all of these groups appeared to be from the U.S. However, I am certain there were other nations represented as well. Again, I am not being critical. I am just reporting the facts as I saw them, first-hand.
All of these groups will compete for finite housing and eating facilities along the
Camino Frances. Local politics and economic factors will combine to keep the number of new hostals and albergues to a minimum, especially in smaller towns and villages. Individually, the tour and student groups are not large, perhaps 8 - 15 people. But, if there are even half a dozen such groups all headed in the same direction at the same time they saturate the facilities in each town they come to...sort of the "pig in the python" metaphor.
Having established that at least the
Camino Frances is becoming more popular than ever, one does wonder what the contingency plans are for handling 275-300,000 or more pilgrims per year, both at Santiago de Compostela and along the way getting there? It can happen.
Just thinkin out loud...
