Mark2012
Active Member
- Time of past OR future Camino
- Camino Frances (2012, 2014) Camino Finisterre (2012, 2013, 2014) Camino Portugues (2013), Camino del Norte (2015)
I've mentioned elsewhere recently that having walked the Frances once before (May & June 2012), I'm hoping (fingers crossed!) to walk in again this year, probably starting in early July, and therefore arriving in Santiago towards mid-August.
Obviously, that means I'll be moving into the peak season, which has left me wondering about how much busier it is likely to be this time compared to last time. Someone on another thread made reference to how numbers starting from St Jean actually drop during the summer months compared to May, which took me by surprise initially, as I merely assumed it would be noticeably busier all along the track. So, I went sniffing around for some official stats and found a few interesting numbers.
In June 2013, Compostelas were awarded to 20,964 pilgrims who said they walked the French way. The most popular indicated starting points were as follows:
Sarria 5,627
St Jean 4,880
Leon 1,546
Roncesvalles 1,461
O Cebreiro 1,247
Ponferrada 862
Astorga 741
For July 2013, with a total of 25,197, the corresponding numbers look like this:
Sarria 8,855 (+3,228)
St Jean 3,681 (-1,199)
O Cebreiro 2102 (+855)
Leon 1,590 (+44)
Astorga 1,566 (+825)
Ponferrada 1,470 (+608)
Roncesvalles 1,157 (-304)
For August 2013 (total: 31,606):
Sarria 12,557 (+3,702)
St Jean 3,686 (+5)
O Cebreiro 2,735 (+633)
Leon 2,299 (+709)
Ponferrada 2,222 (+742)
Roncesvalles 1,645 (+488)
Astorga 1,112 (-454)
So, what to make of all of this? The most eye-catching numbers, of course, relate to Sarria, where the numbers explode as the summer progresses. I suppose that's not a surprise. Looking at the August numbers, on average more than 400 Compostelas were awarded on a daily basis to Pilgrims starting from Sarria, with less than 190 awarded to that category in June. So, it's no newsflash to see that it's going to get very busy from Sarria. I was aware of it in June 2012, but I can expect to be a lot more aware of it in August 2014.
Aside from that, though, St Jean & Roncesvalles numbers dip noticeably from June to July (which of course translates into pilgrims who would have mainly started in May and June respectively), with St Jean only increasing marginally in August, while Roncesvalles recovers to exceed its June numbers. If I hadn't been alerted to this statistical trend, I would never have guessed it was like this.
The big take home message, as I see it, seems to be that while the overall numbers on the Frances surge by approximately 50% in this three month stretch (20,964 Compostelas in June to 31,606 in August), the overwhelming majority of this is accounted for by the Sarria surge.
So, what I'm wondering is am I interpreting this correctly? If so, it seems to suggest that starting from St Jean in early-July 2014 I can expect it to be no busier than it was in late-May 2012 (I would say less busy, looking at the above stats, but I know that year-on-year numbers are up across the board) and while the popular start points will become gradually busier as the summer progresses, there won't be a real sense of the Camino becoming crowded until we reach Sarria. Is this wishful thinking on my part or an accurate read of what the above numbers suggest?
Obviously, that means I'll be moving into the peak season, which has left me wondering about how much busier it is likely to be this time compared to last time. Someone on another thread made reference to how numbers starting from St Jean actually drop during the summer months compared to May, which took me by surprise initially, as I merely assumed it would be noticeably busier all along the track. So, I went sniffing around for some official stats and found a few interesting numbers.
In June 2013, Compostelas were awarded to 20,964 pilgrims who said they walked the French way. The most popular indicated starting points were as follows:
Sarria 5,627
St Jean 4,880
Leon 1,546
Roncesvalles 1,461
O Cebreiro 1,247
Ponferrada 862
Astorga 741
For July 2013, with a total of 25,197, the corresponding numbers look like this:
Sarria 8,855 (+3,228)
St Jean 3,681 (-1,199)
O Cebreiro 2102 (+855)
Leon 1,590 (+44)
Astorga 1,566 (+825)
Ponferrada 1,470 (+608)
Roncesvalles 1,157 (-304)
For August 2013 (total: 31,606):
Sarria 12,557 (+3,702)
St Jean 3,686 (+5)
O Cebreiro 2,735 (+633)
Leon 2,299 (+709)
Ponferrada 2,222 (+742)
Roncesvalles 1,645 (+488)
Astorga 1,112 (-454)
So, what to make of all of this? The most eye-catching numbers, of course, relate to Sarria, where the numbers explode as the summer progresses. I suppose that's not a surprise. Looking at the August numbers, on average more than 400 Compostelas were awarded on a daily basis to Pilgrims starting from Sarria, with less than 190 awarded to that category in June. So, it's no newsflash to see that it's going to get very busy from Sarria. I was aware of it in June 2012, but I can expect to be a lot more aware of it in August 2014.
Aside from that, though, St Jean & Roncesvalles numbers dip noticeably from June to July (which of course translates into pilgrims who would have mainly started in May and June respectively), with St Jean only increasing marginally in August, while Roncesvalles recovers to exceed its June numbers. If I hadn't been alerted to this statistical trend, I would never have guessed it was like this.
The big take home message, as I see it, seems to be that while the overall numbers on the Frances surge by approximately 50% in this three month stretch (20,964 Compostelas in June to 31,606 in August), the overwhelming majority of this is accounted for by the Sarria surge.
So, what I'm wondering is am I interpreting this correctly? If so, it seems to suggest that starting from St Jean in early-July 2014 I can expect it to be no busier than it was in late-May 2012 (I would say less busy, looking at the above stats, but I know that year-on-year numbers are up across the board) and while the popular start points will become gradually busier as the summer progresses, there won't be a real sense of the Camino becoming crowded until we reach Sarria. Is this wishful thinking on my part or an accurate read of what the above numbers suggest?
Last edited: